Bauen EU auto-fuel (EBTP) · • a global market An advanced biofuels framework should: • specify share of emissions reductions from advanced biofuels • provide support to a cross-industry

| Strategic thinking in sustainable energy

EU Auto-Fuel Biofuels Roadmap

Dr Ausilio Bauen

European Biofuels Technology Platform

Brussels, 14 October 2014

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investors, governments and international organisations

The EU Auto-Fuel Biofuels study provides a vision and

roadmap for biofuels in the EU to 2030

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• Transport energy and environment issues

• Policy picture is uncertain and fragmented

• Industry activity also fragmented and

biofuels deployment ineffective

• But decarbonisation and renewable energy

targets challenging

• Independent study by E4tech

commissioned by fuels and auto

industries

• Looks at what can be achieved in terms

of sustainable biofuel supply and its

integration into vehicle fleet by 2030

NGO

POLICY VEHICLES

FUELS

Steering Group

Stakeholders

The study aims to identify a biofuel-vehicle roadmap that addresses risks

and uncertainties to the satisfaction of auto, fuels, consumers and policy

stakeholders

The study is comprehensive in its consideration of

vehicles and fuels...

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Biofuels

• Non drop-in diesel

substitutes: FAME, DME

• Drop-in diesel

substitutes: HVO, FT, co-

processed (pyrolysis)

oils, sugar-to-diesel

• Non drop-in gasoline:

ethanol, methanol,

butanol

• Drop-in gasoline: co-

processed (pyrolysis)

oils, sugar-to-gasoline

• Natural gas substitutes:

Biomethane, Bio-SNG

Vehicle Categories

• Cars/LDV

• HDV

• 2-wheelers

Vehicle types

• Xx

• Xx

• ICE B7+

• ICE E5+

• PHEVs (G)

• PHEVs (D)

• EVs

• FCVs

• LPGVs

• NGVs

• ICE B7+

• ICE E5+

• EVs

• FCVs

• LPGVs

• NGVs

• E5+

• EV

• FCV

... and in its analysis of aspects influencing biofuel uptake

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Biofuels

• Competing demands for feedstocks

• Costs

• GHG emissions

• Environmental constraints and

sustainability

• Rate of introduction and ramp-up of

2G biofuels

Vehicle and Infrastructure

• Vehicle fuel economy (and GHG

emissions)

• Vehicle introduction dates

• Vehicle sales growth

• Infrastructure roll-out

• Costs

We used time-resolved models of biofuel supply and

uptake by vehicles

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Biofuel supply model

• Considers global crop planting

rates, fuel processing plant build-

up, env. and other constraints

• Outputs biofuel component

volumes, costs, well to tank CO2

Biofuel uptake model

• Considers vehicle fleet size,

replacement rates, usage trends,

technology costs and CO2

legislation; demand from aviation,

marine, rail & off-highway

• Outputs parc composition and its

bio-compatibility, vehicle and

infrastructure costs, potential

biofuel uptake, tank to wheels CO2

Vehicle fleet

baseline

Model of

potential

biofuel

uptake

Model of

potential

biofuel

supply

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Context

scenarios

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Pathways

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Matching

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Oils, LC biomass, glycerine, starch & sugar

crops

Trans-esterification, hydro-processing, gasification + FT,

microbial conversion, pyrolysis

Biodiesel, diesel

Glycerine, LC biomassGasification + chemical

synthesisDME

Organic wastes, LC biomass

Anaerobic digestion, gasification

Biomethane

Starch & sugar crops, organic wastes, LC

biomass

Fermentation, gasification, microbial

conversion

Bioethanol, biomethanol, gasoline

Organic wastes, LC biomass

Pyrolysis Gasoline, diesel

Fuel Additional Technology

Additional per vehicle cost over

E10/B7 (Euro 6) baseline

Car LDV Bus Truck

E20 Materials, calibration, CO2 optimization potential if

octane number increased+ n/a n/a n/a

E85 Wide-range lambda-sensing, new fuel lift pump, fuel

injection system material (stainless steel), CO2

optimization potential if octane number increased

++ n/a n/a n/a

B10 Materials, calibration, oil sensing/ change interval ++ ++ ++ ++

B20 Further after-treatment optimization (higher noble

metal content), CO2 penalty for 3-5 g CO2/km, new

DPF regeneration strategy, oil sensing

+++ +++ +++ +++

We explored economic and policy scenarios to test the

sensitivity and resilience of the roadmap

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• Each scenario includes

regulatory assumptions to

and beyond 2020:

• Vehicle tailpipe CO2

• Fuel-chain CO2

• And assumptions on the

evolution of vehicle fleets

and biofuels

• Rate of introduction of

long-term technologies

(electricity, hydrogen) vs

cheaper short-mid term

solutions (smaller cars,

efficiency, natural gas )

• Rate of biofuel dev., level

of imports

Liquid fossil fuels likely to continue to dominate road

transport fuel supply to 2030

8Note: liquid bio-components would be part of gasoline and diesel pools

102

69 67 70 70 58 57 58 58

192

172 171 171 171165 162 157 152

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

A B C D A B C D

Mto

e/y

ea

r

Road transport fuel demand

H2 Electricity NG

LPG Diesel type fuels Gasoline type fuels

2010 2020 2030

Scenario:

Biofuels alone could contribute at least 8% of the 10%

RED target in 2020

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1.6%1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

1.3%1.3% 1.3%

1.9%

3.1%

2.9%3.0% 2.1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Contribution of biofuels to the RED target

Road - Diesel non drop-in supply

Road - Diesel drop-in

Road - Gasoline non drop-in [Ethanol]

Road - Gasoline non drop-in [Butanol]

Road - Biogas

Total double-counting biofuels*

Off road - Biofuel

Inland shipping - Biofuel

Aviation - Biofuel

Rail - Biodiesel

* This amount represents the calculated total amount of

biofuels used in transport that are eligible for double

counting

By 2030, biofuels could contribute between 12 to 15% of

road transport fuel energy

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0.8% 0.8%1.3%

1.5%

2.7% 2.6%2.3%

2.2%

2.3% 2.9%2.9%

6.0%

4.6% 3.6%

4.6%

2.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Biofuel contribution to transport fuel by 2030

(on energy basis)

Road - Diesel non drop-in supply

Road - Diesel drop-in

Road - Gasoline non drop-in [Ethanol]

Road - Gasoline non drop-in [Butanol]

Road - Biogas

Off road - Biofuel

Inland shipping - Biofuel

Aviation - Biofuel

Rail - Biodiesel

Successful deployment of biofuels will depend on a

shared fuel and automotive industry vision and roadmap

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Develop E20 fuel

standard

Deploy E10 to max. availability by 2020

E20 introduction as a base blend in

2025 and E10 becomes the protection

grade

Introduction of E20 tolerant vehicles

into the fleet

All new gasoline vehicles E20 compatible from 2018

Only 62% of vehicles would be E20 tolerant in 2025. The following options would increase this proportion to a level that

would allow mass introduction of E20 in 2025: car sales incentives, a shift to more gasoline sales, engine re-mapping

E20 Consumer awareness programme

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Eth

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8.3% ethanol because 18% of all gasoline refuelling is done

at forecourts with only E5 and 20% of E10 compatible

vehicle owners will refuel with E5 while E10 is available

Start with 3 grade markets and progress

to 2 grade markets later. Max. fuel

availability reached by 2030

B7 remains FAME blend limit

First of a kind/early commercial LC etOH, butanol, FT

diesel, HVO

First of a kind and early commercial plants of additional new technologies, e.g. micro-

algae, sugar to diesel, pyrolysis

Ramp up of technologies

FA

ME

No

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fue

ls

A coherent and overarching road transport policy to 2030

remains critical in meeting climate and energy objectives

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2030 Sustainable Transport Strategy

Vehicles policy

EU 2030 road transport policy

Vehicle energy

infrastructure

policy

Fuels policy

Policy should provide long term clarity to stimulate fuel

efficiency, alternative vehicles, and alternative fuels

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Policy recommendations:

• A single 2030 GHG emissions reduction target for the combined auto-fuel industries

• An economically efficient allocation of the target across the fuel and auto industry

• A harmonised implementation across the EU via direct regulation on the auto and fuel

industry (separately) or directives

Policy considerations:

• Evidence of what could be achieved through fuel and vehicle measures

• Development of required fuel and vehicle technologies, and infrastructure

• Consumer education and acceptance

• A framework for the deployment of biofuels, including harmonising blend levels, across

Europe and accelerating the introduction of E20.

A biofuels policy framework should cover sustainability,

advanced biofuels, infrastructure and consumer issues

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A sustainability framework

should encourage:

• certification of biofuels

• use of waste or

underutilised resources

• biofuels with greater GHG

savings

• ILUC mitigation measures

• a global market

An advanced biofuels

framework should:

• specify share of emissions

reductions from advanced

biofuels

• provide support to a cross-

industry roadmap to 2030

• include initiatives at MS

level

A framework on infrastructure

and vehicles requires:

• a CEN mandate to develop

E20

• harmonisation of blend

rates across Europe

• consumer engagement

Alignment with current 2030 policy proposals on biofuels sustainability

and competition between uses of biomass resources

A harmonised biofuels roadmap is important in achieving

the EU 2030 climate and energy policy proposal’s aims

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The roadmap is:

• Relevant to the policy proposal’s context

• Oil prices expected to remain high

• EU increasingly dependent on energy imports

• EU 2050 Roadmaps – Transport: GHG savings: 60% by 2050 (1990); 20% by 2030

(2008)

• Aligned with its high level policy objectives

• EU-wide energy market integration

• Cooperation between MSs in developing national plans

• Affordable, competitive, secure and sustainable energy

• Energy sector contribution to jobs and growth

• Important in meeting the non-ETS and renewable targets

• GHG emissions reduction target to 2030 (40% r. 1990)

• Non-ETS target allocated amongst MSs (30% r. 2005)

• Renewable energy target (27%)

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