BATTERY TECHNOLOGY TRENDS ENABLING OFF-GRID ENERGY STORAGE Peter Mockel Principal Industry Specialist
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BATTERY TECHNOLOGY
TRENDSENABLING OFF-GRID ENERGY STORAGE
Peter Mockel
Principal Industry Specialist
MEET THE FUTURE
STORAGE IS PROGRESS:
VALUE: FROM BARTER TO STORED VALUE
STORAGE IS PROGRESS:
INFORMATION: FROM SPEECH TO TEXT
STORAGE IS PROGRESS:
FOOD: FROM HUNTERS AND GATHERERS TO SILOS
STORAGE IS PROGRESS:
ENERGY: FROM REAL-TIME GENERATION TO STORED ELECTRICITY
THE TRANSITION FROM LEAD-ACID TO LITHIUM-ION IS
UNDERWAY FOR MOST APPLICATIONS
Sources: BNEF, MIT Technology Review, Avicenne Energy, M-Kopa website, Medium.com
Example: Off-Grid Telecom Towers, India
Assuming 10 kW PV, 5 kW
diesel generator, and 32.64
kWh battery:
• Li-ion equals lead-acid
battery in modeled $/kWh
• Li-ion battery choice leads
to 15% savings in annual
diesel costs vs. lead-acid
Worldwide Rechargeable Battery Market• Improved resiliency – can cycle more times without
significant loss of capacity; can withstand faster/deeper
discharging
• Ease of operation – Requires less frequent care,
maintenance, replacement
• Superior in size & weight – facilitating deployment,
installation, and transport
• Better suited to developing countries – less sensitive to
higher temperatures
We will likely see more Li-ion at a smaller scale PV:
GRID SCALE BATTERIES ALSO DRIVE TRANSITION TO LI-IOM
(% BY MWh)
Source:
Bloomberg
New
Energy
Finance
31%
9%
43%
64%
27%
73%
0%
8%
28%
5%
57%
24%
69%
83%
29% 31%
16%
4%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Lithium-ion batteries Sodium sulphur batteries Other
LARGE LI-ION PROUCTION CAPACITY INCREASES IN ARE IN
THE PIPELINE
2017
UK announced
£246m investment
in battery
technology
2018
Tesla gigafactory
expected
2021
China plans to
approach 120 GWh
/ year capacity
Sources:
(1) FT.com, May 2017
(2) The Guardian, Jan 2018
BATTERY PACK PRICES CONTINUE TO FALL
$1,000
$800
$642$599
$540
$350
$273
$209
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Lithium-ion battery pack price ($/kWh) Observed price 18% learning rate
2025
implied
price
$96/kWh
2030
implied
price
$70/kWh
Source:
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
BATTERY PRICES HAVE UNDERSHOT MOST MARKET PREDICTIONS
Source: Peter Diamandis
SOLAR BATTERIES BENEFIT FROM EV COST DOWN DRIVE
Annual lithium-ion demand for stationary energy storage remains significantly lower than demand for electric vehicles and
consumer applications, even if we assume 100% of stationary systems are lithium-ion.
Source: BNEF 2017 Global Energy Storage Forecast
Note: This assumes 100% of stationary energy storage deployment is lithium-ion whereas it is likely to be
a mix of different technologies. Total stationary number would thus be less than shown here.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Annual GWh
Electric vehicles
Consumergoods
Stationarystorage
HOWEVER, LI-ION MAY NOT DOMINATE FOREVER. MORE NEW
CHEMISTRIES ARE BEING PURSUED.
13
Energy Storage
Mechanical storage
Flywheels
Compressed air
Pumped hydro
Fuel cells
PEMFC
DMFC
SOFC
MCFC
…
Capacitors Batteries
Power batteries
Energy batteries
Mobile batteries
Stationary batteries
Established types
Lead-acid Lithium-ion
NMC
LMO
LTO
Li-Air
Novel types
Zinc-air
Fluidic
EOS
Sodium-ion Molten Salt
GE DurathonFlow-
batteries
Liquid metal Solid state
Innovation
hotspot around
novel battery
chemistries
Mobile is not the
focus here
Renewed interest
in fuel cells
The
incumbent
Strongest
momentum
IFC
investment
• No dominant
technology yet
• Maybe different
technologies will
specialize for
different use
cases
IFC
investment
IFC
investment
SOLID STATE BATTERIES AMONG THE MOST PROMISING NEW
CHEMISTRIES, COULD BE RELEVANT BY THE MID-2020s
0
50
100
150
200
250
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Production cost ($/kWh)
US plant, 10GWh 2020 productionNMC 40 kWh BEV pack
Solid-state, 300MWh 2020 production
Lithium-sulphur, 300MWh 2020 production Lithium-air, 300MWh 2020
production (consumer electronics only in 2020, automotive by 2025)
Slow adoption
Fast adoption
Source: BNEF
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