Baskin UCSC Panel Feb 18 2009 Peter Borden

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Peter Borden

PhotovoltaicsPhotovoltaics

11 January 2009

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Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Supply U.S. Annual Electricity Demand

= 0.4% of total U.S. land area = 1/3 of U.S. land covered by roadways= 2.5 times the area of all single-family residential rooftops= 400 times 2008 display glass demand (100 km2)

Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Nevada120 miles x 120 miles

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Solar America volume-driven predictions

(F) (F) (F)

Baseline1-1.3X

1.3-2.0X2-3.0X

>3.0X

PG&E E1 tiered residential rate/kWhr

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PV growing rapidly, but small compared to demand

California annual usage is 240,000 kWhr (Cal ISO).

Equals 150 GW of PV assuming mean insolation of 1600 kWhr/kW.

Source: Greentech Media

60% growth!

Module shortage due to silicon supply

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Domestic rooftops – a great early market

2.7 kW PV array(14 SunPower panels, ~18%), $6/watt after rebates, -$50 electric bill last year)

Planned tower for 2,700 kW wind turbine

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Commercial Rooftop (grid-connected)

Sizes from tens of kW to >2 MW

Applied Matrials – 2 MW Google – 1.5 MW

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7

Solar Farms

Biggest solar farm is 65MW; farms over 100MW are in the near future!

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Scaling changes market dynamicsScaling changes market dynamics

Lower cost enabled Lower cost enabled FPDsFPDs to replace CRTsto replace CRTs

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Cumulative Volume (MW)

Module manufacturing cost scalingModule manufacturing cost scaling

* 2002 DollarsSource: Navigant Consulting

Production line size (Megawatts per Year):

Lines Per Factory

0.5(1980)

2

5(2000)

3

50(2005)

4

100(2010)

10

1

10

100

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 1E5

HistoricalHistoricalProjectedProjected

19801980$21.83/W$21.83/W

19901990$6.07/W$6.07/W

20052005$2.70/W$2.70/WM

odul

e C

ost (

$/W

)*

18% learning curve18% learning curve

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The two mainstream types of PV

Higher efficiency for area constrained markets(Greater revenue compensates for

higher installed $/watt)

Wafer-based Crystal Silicon

Lower efficiency for cost constrained markets (Sufficient area available to meet generation

needs gives advantage to lower installed $/watt)

Thin Film

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2007 Module Efficiency – c-Si and Thin Film

Photon International Survey

19.3

16.7

15.1

13.7 13.314.2 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.0 13.8

13.113.7

14.313.5 13.3

12.8

11.1 11.0

8.5

6.67.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Sunpo

werSan

yoBP LG

BCSha

rp Mon

oSha

rp Mult

iKyo

cera

Suntec

h Mono

Suntec

h Multi

Motech

Mon

oMote

ch M

ulti

Deutsch

e Mono

Deutsch

e Multi

Mitsub

shi JA BP

Schott M

ultiSch

ott EFG

First S

olar

CISSha

rp TF

Other a

-Si

CSG

Effic

ienc

y (%

)

Advanced silicon

CZ and MC silicon

Thin film

Thin Film suppliers need higher module efficiency with low manufacturing costs

Silicon suppliers need incremental efficiency and cost gains to stay ahead of TF

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Summary

PV is one of many players in the energy picture. Flexible system size, low maintenance enable it to effectively serve many markets

Today, supply is small, but growing rapidly

Scaling and competition between PV technologies is driving down cost per watt.

As costs come down, PV will penetrate larger markets

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