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Barclays Fixed Income Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008
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Barclays Fixed Income Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

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Page 1: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

Barclays Fixed Income MeetingsChicago

MARCH 25, 2008

Page 2: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

2

Safe Harbor Provisions

This presentation contains statements concerning NU’s expectations, plans, objectives, future financial performance and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In some cases, a listener can identify these forward-looking statements by words such as “estimate”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “believe”, “forecast”, “should”, “could”, and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, actions or inactions by local, state and federal regulatory bodies; competition and industry restructuring; changes in economic conditions; changes in weather patterns; changes in laws, regulations or regulatory policy; changes in levels or timing of capital expenditures; developments in legal or public policy doctrines; technological developments; changes in accounting standards and financial reporting regulations; fluctuations in the value of our remaining competitive electricity positions; actions of rating agencies; subsequent recognition, derecognition and measurement of tax positions; and other presently unknown or unforeseen factors. Other risk factors are detailed from time to time in our reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Any forward looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and we undertake no obligation to update the information contained in any forward-looking statements to reflect developments or circumstances occurring after the statement is made.

Page 3: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

3

Overview

Northeast Utilities at a glance

2007 results

NU’s transmission segment

NU’s distribution and generation segment

NU’s regulated growth profile

Outstanding debt and financing plans

Page 4: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

4

Key Facts About Northeast Utilities

Largest energy utility in New England with 2.1 million customers Largest electric transmission owner in New England with one of

the nation’s largest transmission construction programs Modest generation investments

About 1,200 MW in New Hampshire New proposal to add peaking generation in Connecticut

Vast majority of competitive business activities now divested Solid investment grade ratings

Page 5: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

5

Basic Background On Northeast Utilities –

Distribution/Customers at 12/31/07

(in thousands)Residential Customers

Commercial Customers

Industrial/Other Customers

Total

CL&P 1,095 103 6 1,204

PSNH 416 70 3 489

WMECO 187 17 2 206

Yankee Gas 180 23 2 205

1,878 213 13 2,104

Page 6: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

6

Capitalization Ratios at 12/31/07 (in millions)

NU Consolidated CL&P

PSNH WMECO

55.1%43.2%

1.7%

51.3%45.8%

2.9%

52.7%47.3% 56.7%

43.3%

*Approximately $56 million of WMECO debt offset by trust to pay for spent nuclear fuel obligations

$599$538 $319*$243

$1,842 $2,067$2,914 $3,717*

$116$116

Total Debt

Preferred Stock

Common Equity

Page 7: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

7

NU’s Dividend Payout Ratio Remains Modest

$1.18$0.91 $0.91

$3.05

$1.59

($1.93)

$0.775$0.725$0.675$0.625$0.575$0.525

($2.00)

($1.50)

($1.00)

($0.50)

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

Earnings/Share Annual Dividends/Share

2002 2003 2005 20072004 2006

EPS

Page 8: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

8

$115.8

$59.8

$2.0

$211.3

$146.2

$82.5

$6.1$11.7

$0.0

$20.0

$40.0

$60.0

$80.0

$100.0

$120.0

$140.0

$160.0

$180.0

$200.0

$220.0

2006

2007

2007 Earnings

Distribution and Generation

Transmission Parent/Other

In M

illio

ns

Competitive

26.3%

*Excludes one-time $74 million benefit to CL&P from 2006 tax reduction and $7.7 million benefit to CL&P from generation sale

*

38.0%

Page 9: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

9

Drivers Of Earnings Growth

Increased transmission investment

PSNH rate increase Yankee rate increase WMECO rate increase Interest income on cash

from generation sale

Increased transmission investment

Rate increases Managing costs

Offset by Decreasing cash position

at NU Parent Breakeven results at NUEI

2007 2008

Page 10: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

10

NU Electric Transmission Business

Rapidly growing due to necessary investments in New England reliability

Earnings track growth in invested capital FERC approved tariff is fully reconciling, recovers O&M, taxes,

interest, depreciation and return on invested equity Reset twice a year

Most costs spread across New England Transmission costs charged to CL&P, PSNH, WMECO are fully

recovered from retail customers through tracking mechanisms Transmission investments increase service reliability and have

lowered other costs billed to customers

Page 11: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

11

Transmission Earnings Tracking Rate Base Investment

$1,491

$455

$605

$1,046

$82.5

$59.8

$41.1

$28.2

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

2004 2005 2006 2007

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

$70.0

$80.0

$90.0

Year End Rate Base Net Income

Rat

e B

ase

in M

illio

ns N

et Inco

me

in M

illions

Page 12: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

12

2008-2012 Transmission Capital Expenditures

Increase By Over 20% From Previous Five-Year Program

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Major Southwest CT NEEWS Springfield 115-kV Cables Other

Historic Forecast

In M

illio

ns

Up To $3.0 Billion $1,816 Million

$570 million of major SWCT

projects in 2008-2012 forecast

period; $1.68 billion in total

NEEWS projects estimated at

$1 billion during the 2008-2012 forecast

period

$1.1 billion of additional

forecasted projects

Successful completion of

SWCT projects

NEEWS projects ramping up

Springfield 115-kV Cables projects

estimated at $350 million during the

2008-2012 forecast period

Springfield 115-kV Cables project

ramping up

Page 13: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

13

Four Major Southwest Connecticut Transmission Projects –

A $1.68 Billion Investment, About 3/4 Complete

Bethel-Norwalk 345-kV underground& overhead$350 Million

21 miles 345-kV (56% underground)

10 miles 115-kV (100% underground)

Completed October 2006 at a cost of $335 million Middletown-Norwalk 345-kV

underground & overhead$1,047 Million (NU share)Glenbrook Cables

115-kV underground$223 Million

9 miles 115-kV underground

Projected in-service date: End of 2008

Under contract – construction under way, 74% complete at 2/28/08

Long Island Cable138-kV cross-sound$72 Million (NU share)

11 miles 138-kV submarine cable

Joint project with LIPA

Projected in-service date: Second half of 2008

72% complete at 2/28/08

69 miles 345-kV (35% underground)

57 miles 115-kV (1% underground)

Joint project with United Illuminating

Projected in-service date: End 2009

70% complete at 2/28/08

COMPLETE

50% of CT Load

Page 14: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

14

NEEWS and Springfield 115-kV Cables Projects Will Better

Connect Eastern, Western New England by 2013

Springfield 115-kV Cables Project

SPRINGFIELD

HARTFORD

345-kV Substation

Generation Station

345-kV ROW

115-kV ROW

Greater SpringfieldReliability Project

Central ConnecticutReliability Project

InterstateReliability Project

Page 15: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

15

$65.9

$27.0

$11.0 $11.9

$61.4

$43.7

$18.5$22.6

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

$70.0

$80.0

2006

2007

2007 Distribution and Generation

CL&P PSNH WMECO

In M

illio

ns

Yankee Gas

6.8%

61.9%

68.2%

89.9%

*Excludes one-time $74 million benefit to CL&P from 2006 tax reduction and $7.7 million benefit to CL&P from generation sale.

*

Page 16: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

16

$283$334

$291 $289 $298 $297

$124

$167

$143 $153$172

$252$34

$35

$40 $34$34

$34

$64

$56

$60 $60$61

$68

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CL&P PSNH* WMECO Yankee Gas

*PSNH Generation = $35 million in 2007; $63 million in 2008; $44 million in 2009; $49 million in 2010; $65 million in 2011; and $140 million in 2012

$ M

illio

nsActual/Projected Distribution and Generation Capital Expenditures

$505$534

$592$565

$536

$651

Page 17: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

17

Regulated Generation Investments -- Merrimack Scrubber

Reduces sulfur emissions by 98% Reduces mercury emissions by 85% Avoids $15-20 million annually in sulfur credit purchases Impact on Merrimack production costs of no more than 0.6 cents/kWh, preserving

PSNH’s low-cost generation fleet Investment to be recovered through PSNH generation rates per legislation

Merrimack Scrubber Required by New Hampshire

statute for mercury emissions reductions

Current estimate of $250 million under review

Engineering, Procurement & Construction (EPC) contract secured with Washington Group International in fall 2007

Construction start: 2009 Project completion: 2013

Page 18: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

18

CL&P Peaker Proposal

CL&P has been advocating to improve the effectiveness of Connecticut’s energy market, supporting a hybrid model blending merchant generation with regulated, cost of service generation

Connecticut’s Energy Efficiency Act passed in 2007 requires the DPUC to solicit proposals for cost of service peaking generation from CL&P, UI and any interested merchant generators

The regulatory framework established by the DPUC for this solicitation is similar to a traditional cost of service model, but the framework assigns more risk to the project owners

On March 3, 2008, CL&P filed a proposal with the DPUC to develop a total of 265 MW peaking generation at two sites in Connecticut

Includes the development of 200 MW of capacity at land owned by CL&P in Lebanon, CT and 65 MW of capacity at land adjacent to the Yankee Gas LNG facility in Waterbury, CT

The DPUC may select one or both of these sites

If selected, CL&P would invest approximately $176 million in the Lebanon project and $80 million in the Waterbury project over the next three years

CL&P’s proposal requests a 10.5% ROE and 50% equity capital structure

The proposed ROE sets the “risk premium” above the index specified by the DPUC (the average of the CL&P and UI allowed distribution ROEs)

The DPUC is expected to select winning proposals by July 1, 2008

Page 19: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

19

Projected Combined Year-End Rate Base

$1,046 $1,491$2,172

$2,716 $2,988 $3,435 $3,892

$3,429

$3,893

$4,297

$4,623$4,897

$5,157$5,422

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

2006Actual

2007Actual

2008 Est. 2009 Est. 2010 Est. 2011 Est. 2012 Est.

Electric Transmission Distribution and Generation

Target Utility Capitalization Structure = 45% equity, 55% debtBlended Transmission ROE 11.75% in 2007 rising to 12.0% in 2012

$5,384

$7,339

$6,469

$7,885

Rat

e B

ase

in M

illio

ns

Rate Base 2008-2012

CAGR of 12%

$4,475

$8,592

Projected Distribution & Generation Rate Base

CAGR of 7%

Transmission Rate Base

CAGR of 22%

$9,314

Note: 50 percent CWIP approved for major southwest Connecticut investment until projects enter service. 100 percent CWIP in rate base assumed for Springfield cables and NEEWS projects.

Page 20: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

20

Rate Base Composition

2006 Rate Base Composition

2012E Rate Base Composition

$4.5 billion

$9.3 billion

Rate Base: $1.5 billion (Actual 2007)

’08-’12 Capex: $3.0 billion

Rate Base: $3.2 billion (Actual 2007)

’08-’12 Capex: $2.6 billion

Rate Base: $0.6 billion (Actual 2007)

’08-’12 Capex: $0.3 billion

ElectricityTransmission

ElectricityDistribution & Generation

Gas LDC

Transmission becomes much larger share of total rate baseTransmission becomes much larger share of total rate base

23%

11%

66% Transmission

Gas

Dist. & Generation

42%

9%

49%

Transmission

Gas

Dist. & Generation

Page 21: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

21

Transmission Becomes a Much Larger Share of Earnings

36.1%

21.2%18.1%

25.2%

32.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

2003 2004 2005 2006* 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Tra

nsm

issi

on

ea

rnin

gs

as

% o

f re

gu

late

d e

arn

ing

s

*Excludes benefit to CL&P from 2006 tax reduction

Page 22: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

22

Outstanding Debt Securities As Of 12/31/07

FMBs Sr. Unsecured PCRBsPreferred

Stock

NU Parent -$413.0

Baa2/BBB-/BBB- -

CL&P$1,369.8

A3/BBB+/A--

$423.9*

Various

$116.2

Baa3/BB+/BBB

PSNH$170.0

Baa1/BBB+/BBB+-

$407.3*

Baa1/BBB+/BBB+-

WMECO -$195.0

Baa2/BBB/BBB+

$53.8

Baa2/BBB/BBB+-

Yankee Gas

$266.4 - - -

*Underlying rating shown. Certain insured issues are rated AAANote: Rate Reduction Bonds (RRBs) not shown

All ratings stable except Moody’s rating for Yankee Gas

(par value in millions)

Page 23: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

23

Types of NU Consolidated Debt at 12-31-07

Taxable73.5%$2,459

Tax-Exempt26.5%$885

FMBs54.0%$1,806

Sr. Notes18.2%$608

PCRBs26.5%$885

Other1.3%$45

($ in millions)

Page 24: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

24

NU Long-Term Debt Amortization and

Maturity Profile at 12-31-07

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Millions

NU Parent CL&P PSNH WMECO Yankee Gas

Excludes RRBs

Page 25: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

25

Available Credit As Of 3-19-08

Available Used

Available

Used

Available

Used

$100 Million A/R Line

$500 Million Parent Revolver

$400 Million Regulated Revolver

$98

$402

$95

$305

Page 26: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

26

Actual/Projected Cash From Operations

(Excluding RRB Retirements)

$450$500

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

In M

illio

ns

*Excludes taxes due in 2007 on 2006 competitive generation sale

*

Page 27: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

27

Financing Plans In 2008

$300 million of FMBs at CL&P

$200-$250 million of senior notes at NU, including meeting $150 million maturity

$110 million of FMBs at PSNH

$100 million of FMBs at Yankee Gas

$62 million tax-exempt PCRB refinancing at CL&P

Possible refinancing of PSNH auction-rate insured PCRBs

Possible refinancing of other PCRBs at CL&P, PSNH and WMECO, if economic

Page 28: Barclays Fixed Income  Meetings Chicago MARCH 25, 2008

28

Key Financial Considerations

Commitment to investment grade ratings

Strong balance sheet

55% leverage target at utility subsidiaries

60% consolidated leverage target

Improve cash flow during construction cycle

Maintain financial flexibility to allow additional investment opportunities

Use of NU equity to support accretive capital expenditures and projects

Continued focus on an attractive total shareholder return emphasizing

both EPS and dividend growth