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BalticEarth-EarthsystemsciencefortheBalticSearegion
Outline
• Introduc.onandinfrastructureMarcusReckermann,Intl.Bal3cEarthSecretariat,Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Germany
• GrandChallengesAnnaRutgersson,UniversityofUppsala,Sweden
• Scien.ficachievementsinhydrologyintheBal.cSearegionIrinaPartatsenok,Hydromet,Belarus
• AdvancesandchallengesinhydrologyoftheBal.cseabasin:viewfromRussiaSergeiZhuravlev,RussianStateHydrologicIns3tute,St.Petersburg,Russia
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BalticEarth-EarthsystemsciencefortheBalticSearegion
VisionoftheprogrammeToachieveanimprovedEarthSystemunderstandingoftheBal9cSearegion
• Interdisciplinaryandinterna.onalcollabora3on(conferences,workshops,jointprojectsetc.)
• Holis.cviewontheEarthsystemoftheBal3cSearegion,encompassingprocessesintheatmosphere,onlandandintheseaandalsointheanthroposphere
• “Servicetosociety”intherespectthatthema.cassessmentsprovideanoverviewoverknowledgegapswhichneedtobefilled(e.g.byfundedprojects)
• Educa.on(summerschools)• InheritstheBALTEXnetworkofscien3stsandinfrastructuren
• SucceedsBALTEXsincethe7thStudyConferenceonBALTEX,Borgholm,Öland,Sweden,10-14June2013
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TheBal.cSearegion
• DrainageBasin:2.13Mill.km2(20%oftheEuropeancon3nent)
• 85millionpeoplein14countries
• Bal3cSea:380000km2
St.Petersburg:Northernmostcitywith>1million
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TheBal.cSearegion
Bothhavebeenac3veinBALTEXformanyyears
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TheNorth…Ò extensiveforests,
mostlyconiferousÒ sparselypopulatedÒ mostlyrockycoastsÒ subarc.cclimatein
winter
TheSouth…
Ò intenseagriculture
Ò denselypopulated
Ò mostlysandycoasts
Ò moderateclimateinwinter
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Bal.cEarthInfrastructure
• Interna.onalBal.cEarthSecretariatatHelmholtzZentrumGeesthacht
• Bal.cEarthScienceSteeringGroup(BESSG)Excellent,ac3ve“young”scien3sts;countrybalance,genderbalance,disciplinebalance,ins3tu3onalbalance,currently20members;mee3ngsbiannually
• WorkingGroupsinstalledforeachGCpluso WGonOutreachandCommunica3ono WGonEduca3ono WGontheU3lityofRegionalClimate
ModelsWGontheAssessmentofScenarioSimula3onsfortheBal3cSea1960-2100
• SeniorAdvisoryBoard
• SciencePlan
AnnaRutgersson,ProfessorofMeteorology,UppsalaUniversity,Sweden.
BESSGchairs
MarkusMeier,HeadofPhysicalOceanography,Bal3cSeaResearchIns3tute,Germany
Bothhavebeenac3veinBALTEXformanyyears
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MarcusReckermann,Interna3onalBALTEXSecretariatGEWEX/GHPMee3ng,Boulder,19October2011 7
BALTEXInfrastructureandAc3vi3es
Bal.cEarthSSGmembers
JurisAigarsLatvia
IngaDailidienėLithuania
JariHaapalaFinland
KarolKulinskiPoland
FranzBergerGermany
AndreasLehmannGermany
MarkusMeierGermany
KaiMyrbergFinland
AndersOmstedtSweden
IrinaPartasenokBelarus
PiiaPostEstonia
MarcusReckermannGermany
GregorRehderGermany
AnnaRutgerssonSweden
CorinnaSchrumGermany
BenSmithSweden
Mar.nStendelDenmark
RalfWeisseGermany
SergeyZhuravlevRussia
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MarcusReckermann,Interna3onalBALTEXSecretariatGEWEX/GHPMee3ng,Boulder,19October2011 8
BALTEXInfrastructureandAc3vi3es
Bal.cEarthSeniorAdvisoryBoard
UllaLiZweifelHELCOM
StanislavMasselPoland
AndrisAndrusail.sBONUS
FritzKösterDenmark
JanPolcherGEWEX-GHP
JüriElkenEstonia
DeliangChenSweden
Hans-JörgIsemerGermanyKayEmeis
Germany
ValeryVuglinskyRussia
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Infrastructure
Secretariat
Publications
Websiteetc.
Events
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Infrastructure
Secretariat
Publications
Websiteetc.
Events
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Infrastructure
Secretariat
Publications
Website
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Infrastructure
Secretariat
Publications
Websiteetc.
Events
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Infrastructure
Secretariat
Publications
Websiteetc.
Events
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MarcusReckermann,Interna3onalBALTEXSecretariatGEWEX/GHPMee3ng,Boulder,19October2011 14
BALTEXInfrastructureandAc3vi3es
Bal.cEarthConferencesConferencesWorkshopsandSeminarsSummerSchools
1stBalticEarthConferenceNida,Lithuania,June2016
2ndBalticEarthConferenceHelsingør,Denmark,June2018
Rome,Italy,Nov2015HyMex
Vienna,Austria,Apr2015,Apr2016EGU
Hamburg,GermanyMay2014,Mar2015,Sep2016
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Events
SummerSchools
WorkshopsandSeminars
TopicalConferences
BalticEarthConferences
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Events
SummerSchools
WorkshopsandSeminars
TopicalConferences
BalticEarthConferences
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Events
SummerSchools
WorkshopsandSeminars
TopicalConferences
BalticEarthConferences
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Events
SummerSchools
WorkshopsandSeminars
TopicalConferences
BalticEarthConferences
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Events
SummerSchools
WorkshopsandSeminars
TopicalConferences
BalticEarthConferences
JointBal3cEarth-ESAWorkshopon
RemoteSensingapplica.onsintheBal.cSearegion
Helsinki,Finland
29-31March2017
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Events
SummerSchools
WorkshopsandSeminars
TopicalConferences
BalticEarthConferences
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Events
SummerSchools
WorkshopsandSeminars
TopicalConferences
BalticEarthConferences
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Events
SummerSchools
WorkshopsandSeminars
TopicalConferences
BalticEarthConferences 2ndBalticEarthConference
Helsingør,Denmark10-15June2018
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www.baltex-research.eu
Bal.cEarthGrandChallenges
AnnaRutgerssonProfessorofMeteorologyUppsala
UniversityCo-chair,Bal3cEarth
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BalticEarthSciencePlanandGrandChallenges
• Flexiblescienceplanwithacon3nuouslyon-goingdefini3onofcoreresearchques3onswhichareiden3fiedtobekeyscien3ficissues,so-called“GrandChallenges”(GCs)
• NewGrandChallengeswillbeiden3fiedatconferencesandbyusingassessmentsofexis.ngresearchbydedicatedworkinggroups.GrandChallengesareenvisagedtoberesearchfociforperiodsofabout3-4years(thenterminatedorupdated).
• Thehumanimpactwillbeassessedatalllevels,whereverpossibleandsenseful
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• GC1:Salinitydynamics
• GC2:Land-Seabiogeochemicallinkages
• GC3:Naturalhazardsandextremeevents
• GC4:SealevelandcoastaldynamicsoftheBal3cSea
• GC5:Regionalvariabilityofwaterandenergyexchanges• GC6:Mul3pledriversofregionalEarthsystemchanges
BalticEarthSciencePlanandGrandChallenges
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• GC1:SalinitydynamicsGEWEX
• GC2:Land-Seabiogeochemicallinkages
• GC3:NaturalhazardsandextremeeventsGEWEX
• GC4:SealevelandcoastaldynamicsoftheBal3cSea
• GC5:RegionalvariabilityofwaterandenergyexchangesGEWEX
• GC6:Mul3pledriversofregionalEarthsystemchanges
BalticEarthSciencePlanandGrandChallenges
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GC1:SalinitydynamicsintheBal.cSea
• Interrela3onbetweendecadal/climatevariabilityandsalinity.
• WatermassexchangeandmajorBal3cinflows
• Regionalsalinitydistribu3on/variabilityandassociatedcircula3onpalerns(includingsalinityfluxesbetweenthecoastalareasandtheopenseaandwithinthesub-basins).
GCchairs:AndreasLehman,GEOMAR,KaiMyrberg,FMI;PiiaPost,UniversityofTarttu
Suggestedkeyresearchthemes
ElkenandMalhäus(2008)
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GC2:Land-Seabiogeochemicallinkages
• C,N,Pcyclesstudiesfortheunderstandingprimaryproduc3onmechanismandorganicmalertransforma3onsintheBal3cSea
• Transforma3onsandpathwaysofterrestrialorganicmaler,influenceoftheterrestrialinputonthecarbonatesystem
• extensionofthedatabaseswiththemissingterrestrialloadsdataofthekeychemicalsubstances(e.g.NevaRiver).
GCchairs:GergorRehder,IOW,KarolKulinski,IO-PAN,BenjaminSmith,LundUniversity
Suggestedkeyresearchthemes
Omstedtetal
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GC3:NaturalhazardsandextremeeventsintheBalticSearegion
Background:• Societyisverysensi3vetoextremegeophysicaleventsthathavesevereimplica3onsforhumanlife,generateeconomiclossesandinfluenceecosystems.
• Anaturaldisasterlinksextremegeophysicaleventstoecosystemsandsociety(inpar3cularweaknessesinecosystemsandsociety)
• Understandingtheunderlyingcausesofnaturaldisastersincreasestheabilitytopredicttheoccurrenceandseverityandmaysavehumanlivesaswellasmi3gateeconomiclosses.
GCchairs:JaariHaapala,FMI;AnnaRutgersson,UppsalaUniversity;MartinStendel,DMI,
Photos:Mar+nStendelandFinnMajlergaard
FloodingatDMI
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GC3:NaturalhazardsandextremeeventsintheBalticSearegionBackground:• Manynaturalhazardshavehydrometeorologicalorigin(storms,waves,flooding,droughts).
• Naturalhazardsareonencausedbyseveralfactors(stormsurgeincombina3onwithprecipita3onandriverrunoffmightcauseextremeflooding).
• Predic3oncapabili3esareverylimited.Thisisgenerallywellrecognizedregardinginfrastructuresuchasdamsafetyandurbanfloodingrisks.
• Therangeofecosystemservicesatriskismorepoorlydefined,fromvitalsocietalfunc3onssuchasdrinkingwatersupplytobiodiversity.
From:h6p://www.eumetrain.org/data/2/227/navmenu.php?tab=2&page=8.0.0FMI
StormXyntia
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Suggestedkeyresearchthemes• Changesinatmosphericcircula3onintheNorthernHemisphere,andtheimpactofcircula3onchangesonclimateextremesintheBal3cSearegioninthefuture.
•Responseandcontribu3onofmarineprocessestochangesinextremeandclimatevariability(waterlevel,waves,icecondi3ons,seasurfacetemperature).
•Monthlytoseasonalpredic3onsystemsandprobabilis3ces3matesoftheextremeevents.
•Howhastheachievementofenvironmentalgoalsinfluencedchangesinextremecondi3ons(droughts,floodsandheatwaves)?
•Howvulnerableisdrinkingwatersecuritytohydrometeorologicalextremes?•Whatistheresponseofmarineecosystemsto
extremeevents?•HowwillthecarboncycleoftheBal3cSea
regionrespondtochangesinextremecondi3ons?
GudrunStorm
GC3:NaturalhazardsandextremeeventsintheBalticSearegion
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GC4:SeaLevelandCoastalDynamics
• Futuresealevelchangeson3mescalesfromseasonstodecades(meanandextremesealevels)
• Asystema3ccomparisonof3de-gaugesandhighresolu3onsatelliteproducts.morehigh-resolu3onoceanandatmosphere-oceanregionalsimula3onsoftheBal3cSeaarebecomingavailable.
• Consistentanalysisofalldatasetsisneeded.
GCchairs:RalfWeisse,HZG,AndersOmstedtUniversityofGothenburg,BirgitHunicke,HZG
Suggestedkeyresearchthemes
Es3ma3onsofcrustaldeforma3onratesintheBal3cSeaRegionderivedbydifferentmethods.FromRichteretal.(2011)andHarffetal.(2010).
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GC5:RegionalvariabilityofwaterandenergyexchangesintheBal.cSearegion
• Theobserva3onofatmosphericprocesses
• Thediagnosisofnaturalvariabilityofenergyandwatercomponents.
• Theimproveddescrip3onandmodellingofatmosphericprocesses
• Theextendedandcon3nuousevalua3onofatmosphericprocesseswithconven3onalmeteorological/hydrologicalobserva3ons.
• Themodelling/predic3onofshort-andlong-termwaterandenergyexchanges.
GCchairs:SergejZhuravlev,Saint-PetersburgStateUniversity,IrinaPartasenok,CentreforHydrometeorology
Suggestedkeyresearchthemes
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GC6:Mul.pledriversofregionalEarthsystemchanges
• Amixtureofinterwovenfactors,suchasregionalclimatechange,eutrophica3on,pollu3on,fisheries,hydrographicengineering,agriculturalandforestryprac3cesandlandcoverchangeareresponsibleforthecurrentsitua3onandofpoten3alimportanceasdriversoffuturechanges.
• Thereisaneedforincreasedcoopera3onamongresearchershavingspecialisedknowledgeofdifferentcomponentsofthecoupledbiophysical-societalsystem.
• Keydisciplinesincludemeteorologyandclimatescience,oceanography,hydrology,marine,terrestrialandfreshwaterecology,microbiologyandbiogeochemistry,economists,humangeographers,poli3calscien3stsandengineers.
GCchairs:BenjaminSmith,LundUniversity;JurisAigars,UniversityofLatviaMarcusReckermann,HZG
Suggestedkeyresearchthemes
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JointBalticEarth/ESAWorkshop
29-31March,Helsinki,Finland
Scien3fictopics:
• SalinitydynamicsintheBal3cSea
• Land-SeabiogeochemicalfeedbacksintheBal3cSearegion
• Naturalhazardsandregionalvariabilityofwaterandenergyexchanges
• Understandingsealeveldynamics
• Generaltopics
Remotesensingapplicationstoaddressregionalchallenges
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Baltic Assessment of Climate
Change
Long-term climate change
Recent climate change
Future climate change
Environmental Impact climate
change
Socio-economic Impacts of
climate change
Drivers for Regional climate change
Climate change During the Holocene (Past 12000years)
The Historical Time Period (Past 1000 years)
Atmosphere River runoff and Ice cover Terrestrial Cryosphere Marine Circulation and Stratification Sea Ice Sea Level and Wind Waves
Atmosphere Hydrology Marine Physics Sea Level Atmosphere Chemistry
Coastal Ecosystems, Birds and Forests Freshwater Biogeochemistry Marine Biogeochemistry Marine Ecosystems Coastal Erosion an Coastline changes
Forestry and Agriculture Urban Complexes
Forestry and Agriculture Urban Complexes
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Study
1.Long-term changes
2. Recent changes
3.Future Projections
Bal.cEarthachievments
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1.Long-termClimateChange(12000yearsBP)
ClimatechangeduringtheHoloceneFormainstagesoftheBal3cSea1) Bal3cIceLakestage(before
11500yearsBP)2) YoldiaseaStage
(11700-10700yearsBP)3) AncylusLakeStage
(10700-9500yearsBP)4) LilorinaSeaStage(9500
yearstopresent).
Reconstructed April–June (AMJ) precipitation totals (top) and summer (June–August) temperature anomalies (bottom) for central Europe with respect to 1901–2000. Error bars are ±1 RMSE (Root-Mean Square Error) for the calibration periods. Black lines show independent precipitation and temperature reconstructions from Germany (Büntgen et al. 2010) and Switzerland (Büntgen et al. 2006). Bold lines are 60-year low-pass filters. Periods of demographic expansion, economic prosperity and societal stability are noted, as are periods of political turmoil, cultural change and population instability. Büntgen et al. (2011b)
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1.Long-termClimateChange(1000yearsBP)
www.bal3cearth.eu
MillenialClimateMedievalWarmPeriod(900-1350)Transi3onalPeriod(13580-1550)LilleIcePeriod(1550-1850)ConterporaryWarmPeriod(aner1850)
ReconstructedannualriverdischargetotheBal3cSeaforthepast500years.Thegreyshadingindicates1and2standarderrorsofthereconstructedriverdischarge(Hanssonetal.2011)
The2-mtemperatureanomalywithregardtothepreindustrialmean(950–1900)forthewinter(DJF),summer(JJA)andannualmeanaveragedovertheBal3cSearegion.Thecolouredsec3onshighlighttheperiodsthataredefinedasMWP(red)andLIA(blue).Thedarkercoloursreflectthe50-yearperiodswhichareconsideredfortheanalysisoftheBal3cSea.AnerSchimankeetal.(2012)
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Sub-basinsoftheBal3cSeadrainagebasingreaterthan6km2insize(HannerzandDestouni2006)
2.RecentChanges-studyobject
River Country Area(km2)
PercentageofBal3cSeadrainagebasin
Meanannualdischarge(m3s−1)
PercentageoftotalriverinflowtotheBal3cSea
Run-off(lkm−2s−1)
Neva Russia/Finland 281,000 16.1 2460 17.6 8.8
Vistula
Poland/Ukraine/Belarus/Slovakia
194,400 11.2 1065 7.6 5.5
Odra
Poland/Germany/CzechRepublic
118,900 6.8 573 4.1 4.8
Nemunas(Lithuanian)
Belarus/Lithuania/Russia
98,200 5.6 632 4.5 6.4
Daugava
Belarus/Latvia/Lithuania/Estonia/Russia
87,900 5.1 659 4.7 7.5
Narva Estonia/Russia 56,200 3.2 403 2.9 7.2
Kemi Finland 51,400 3.0 562 4.0 11.0Göta Sweden 50,100 2.9 574 4.1 11.5
Torne Sweden/Finland 40,100 2.3 392 2.8 9.8
Kymi Finland 37,200 2.1 338 2.4 9.1Total 1,015,400 58 7658 55
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Moistening in the
autumn and winter season
Water supply in the snow
cover before melting
Floods wave coherence in the large river basins
Ice cover on the snow
pack
Depth of ground freezing
before snow melting
Snow melting intensity
Climateforcingthestreamflowandfloods
Atmospheric Circulation Air temperature Precipitation
Precipitation
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Atmosphere–northshinofthecyclonesandincreaseofwesterly.
Wind–increaseofwindspeedintheNorth.Precipita3on–nosign.changeforen3reregion,moreintheNorth.Fallingislongerandmoreextremes.
Airtemperature–increase,especiallyincoldpartoftheyear.
2.RecentChanges
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www.bal3cearth.eu
2.RecentChanges-Hydrology
TrendsinannualstreamflowwithintheNordiccountriesfor1920–2002(leJ),1941–2002(middle)and1961–2000(right)(Hisdaletal.2010)
Long-termchangeinprecipita3onandmeanannualdischargeforriversintheBal3cSeabasin:1precipita3on(Sta3onRīgaUniversity);2Nemunas;3Daugava;4Narva;5Pärnu.Curves1–4:lenaxis,curve5:rightaxis.Dataweresmoothedusinga6-yearmovingaverage
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3.FutureProjec.ons-HydrologyCountry Modelcombina3ons Scenario Results
Denmark 1)HIRHAM2)NAM+ECHAM4-HIRHAM
SRESA2
Annualdischargeincreaseupto11-14%Annualdischargeincreaseupto9-34%
Sedimentupto24-27%Phosphorupto3.3-16.5%
Finland 1)WSFS2)TUFLOW+2GCM+RCA3RCM3)TUFLOW+3GCM+4RCM
SRESA2,A1BB1
1)North–nochange,WestandCentre–floodsincrease2)Floodsdecrease3)Floodsdecreaseupto8-22%
Latvia HBV+HadAM3H-RCAO
SRESA2B2
Annualdischargesdecreaseupto2-24%
Lithuania HBV+ECHAM5andHadCM3
SRESA1B Annualdischargesdecreaseupto41%
Norway HBV+2GCM+RCM SRESA2B2 Winterandautumndischargedecrease
Poland ECHAM5-MPI-M-REMO
Waterdecreaseinthemedianvaluefrom−32to−50mm
Sweden HBV+GCM/RCMECHAM5/RCA3
SRESA1B Uncertainnessintheprojec3ons
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AdvancesandchallengesinhydrologyoftheBal.cseabasin:viewfromRussia
SergeiZhuravlev,AssociateProfessor,ChairofHydrology,Inst.ofEarthSciences,SPbSULeadingresearcher,headoftheHydrologicModellingLab,[email protected]
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HydrologicalnetworkinRussiaandRussianpartoftheBal.cSeabasin
• Totalnumberofhydrologicalsta.onsisabout3000.
• Itisslowlydecreasingduringlastyears• RussianpartoftheBal.cseabasinhasthehighestdensityofhydrologicalnetwork
*HMC.BY2014**WMOINFOHYDRO2014***Freshsurfacewater,2009
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HydrologicaldatasetsandnewdataservicesinRussia
Dailydischarges(1950sta3ons)from2008uptodateDailywaterlevels(2650sta3ons)Hydrochemicaldata,waterturbidity,iceregimeetc
ButonlyinRussianL
• regionalsystemsi.e.hlp://emercit.com/map/
• localdatasetsDailyrunoffdatafortheRussianpartoftheBal3cseabasin(1946-1992)
• automatedinforma3onsystemofthestatemonitoringofwaterobjects(gmvo.skniivh.ru)
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Runoffstudies:runofftrendsinRussia
• Winterandsummerlowflowsareincreasing
• Differentspa3alpalernsforspringfloods
• Strongneedforregionalstudies
Anomaliesofwinter,springandsummer–fallrunoff
(Shiklomanov,Georgievskiy,2008)
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RunofftrendsintheRussianpartoftheBal.cseabasin• Peakrunoffofspringfloodsovertheeastof
GoFbasinstendstodecreaseinthesouthandtoincreaseinthenorth
• Themajorfactorofpeakflowreducingisincreasingofthawsduringthewinterperiod
• Spa3alcorrela3onofpeakrunoffisdecreasing(Red–perfectcorrela3on;blue–weak)
Peakflowtrendsfortheperiod1946-2013(1946-1978) (1979-2013) (Zhuravlev,2016)
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Hydrologicmodeling
AnumberofhydrologicalmodelswereadaptedtoBal.cSearegion:
• HYPE(SMHI,Sweden)
• HBV(SMHI,Sweden)
• Hydrograph(SHI,Russia)
• WetSPA(Belgium,adaptedtoPoland)
• SWAT(USA,adaptedtodifferentcountriesofBal3cSearegion)andmanyothers
Objec.ves:Toshareinforma3onaboutdifferentmodelsadaptedforBal3cSeabasinToreviewnumeroushydrologicalstudiesforthedifferentsub-basinsoftheBal3cSea
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Whatshouldbedone(acc.toBESciencePlan,GC5Understandingregionalvariabilityofwaterandenergyexchanges)
• Datadescrip3onandtransla3on.Guidelineprepara3on.
• Reviewar3cle&par3cipa3oninassessmentreports
• New“sub”-regionalprojects(e.g.WesternDvinaproject,RussiaandBelarus)