Balangero Asbestos Tailings Dump Environmental Rehabilitation

1 1 1Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com

ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

Using Risk as a Driving Parameterin the Design of the

Environmental Rehabilitaton of an

Asbestos Mine Dump

F. & C. Oboni

http://www.riskope.com/


ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

Width 800 m

Height 200 – 250 m

Estimated Volume 5060 Mm3

Slope 35 – 45 degrees



ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

Before...and after first phase. It looks simple...



ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

... but it is not!



ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

At each design step risk has been integrated in the decision making process:

Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3Bla bla Bla Bla Bla Bla

By using the

CDA/ESM (Comparative Decision Analysis/Economic Safety Margin) developed by Riskope International

with CDA/ESM alternatives can be compared all along their life cycle, from cradle to grave



ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9


7 7 7

Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com

ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

Two code compliant alternatives can feature completely different risk profiles:

EXAMPLE: using an aerial tramway to haul waste material, rather than trucks.

It is important to recognize that alternatives' risks may have very different time frames, which is taken into account by CDA/ESM

CDA/ESM includes a simplified risk analysis for each phase characterising the life of a project.



ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

CDA/ESM has been successfully applied to a number of international projects and is taught in specific courses by Riskope International.

Thanks to CDA/ESM cimparing alternatives becomes:

Clear and concrete,

Trasparent

Riproductible

Justifiable


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

When deploying CDA/ESM risk scenarios are expressed numerically and graphically.

For each scenario the following has to be defined:

Max estimated Probability of event

Max estimated cost of event

Min estimated Probability of event

Min estimated cost of event



ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

Risk can be displayed in a ProbabilityCost plot as a “Risk Bubble”

Likelihood

0.00

1.00

Consequence

Probabilità

1/100 per year

1.00

Conseguenza35

,000

$

1/10 per year20

0$


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

It is intuitively easy to add to the Risk Bubble reputational/public opinion damages, converted in monetary values, see the red line.

Likelihood

0.00

1.00

Consequence

Probabilità

1/100 per year

1.00

Conseguenza35

,000

$

1/10 per year20

0$


14 14 14


ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

This is an example of a Risk Analysis result. NB: The Risk Bubbles are displayed only with their centers or to vertical segments to display their uncertainty

Pro

babi

lity

Consequence in MUS$

1/10

1/100

1/1000

1

1 in a Million

.....


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

Can you see the difference? The left image shows risks (14).Right image displays the tolerability on top of risks.

The right plot clearly indicates that only 7 out of the 14 are intolerable; of those CDA/ESM will show that actually only 3are truly significant! This outcome generates huge economic returns


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9



ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9



ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9


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ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9

ConclusionsThanks to specific methodologies it is possible

to:

Select the riskiest scenarios and mitigate them at preliminary design level already,

Draw attention of all stakeholders to rational priorities,Define a mitigation masterplan of a project all along its

life.

This will enable to generate more rational and sustainable projects.


Balangero Asbestos Tailings Dump Environmental Rehabilitation

Health & Medicine

riskope international

design step risk