ABCDE, World Bank 2016 { noriega, pentland } @ mit.edu Balancing External Representativity and Interference in Large-Scale Rural Experiments Alejandro Noriega and Alex Pentland MIT Media Laboratories MIT Institute for Data, Systems and Society (IDSS)
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ABCDE, World Bank 2016
{ noriega, pentland } @ mit.edu
Balancing External Representativity and Interference in Large-Scale Rural Experiments
Alejandro Noriega and Alex Pentland
MIT Media Laboratories MIT Institute for Data, Systems and Society (IDSS)
Field RCTs in Data-Rich Contexts
SAMPLE TARGET
POPULATION
Interference (SUTVA) Extrapolation
SAMPLE TARGET
POPULATION
Interference (SUTVA) Extrapolation
Field RCTs in Data-Rich Contexts
Overview
Spatial Dynamics of PROSPERA Context
PROSPERA – National Social Program
A Large Scale Experiment
Extrapolation and Target Population Experiment Design
Choice of Experimental Sample
Interference Gravity Model
Tradeoff Analysis
Interference and Representativity in Large Rural Experiments
Conclusion and Paths Forward
Algorithm and Results
National Social Program -- PROSPERA
• National-Wide system: – families below poverty line – Based on engagement and co-
responsibility
• 2nd Largest Conditional Cash Transfer program in the world – +8M families, +25M beneficiaries
• Services: – Health – Cash transfer – Nutrition – Productivity
Interference and Representativity in Large Rural Experiments
PROSPERA – Traditional communication means
Interference and Representativity in Large Rural Experiments
PROSPERA – Commutes
Interference and Representativity in Large Rural Experiments
PROSPERA – Commutes
Interference and Representativity in Large Rural Experiments
5,000 Approx. 5,000 women Jan 16
Interference and Representativity in Large Rural Experiments
Overview
Spatial Dynamics of PROSPERA Context
PROSPERA – National Social Program
A Large Scale Experiment
Extrapolation and Target Population Experiment Design
Choice of Experimental Sample
Interference Gravity Model
Tradeoff Analysis
Interference and Representativity in Large Rural Experiments
Conclusion and Paths Forward
Algorithm and Results
Interference and Representativity in Large Rural Experiments
PROSPERA – All Clinics
Interference and Representativity in Large Rural Experiments
PROSPERA – Eligible Clinics
Interference and Representativity in Large Rural Experiments
Extrapolation
PROSPERA – Eligible Clinics
Estimation error decomposition and non-random sampling
Interference and Representativity in Large Rural Experiments
Sampling Error
Treatment Assignment Error
Estimation error decomposition and non-random sampling
Interference and Representativity in Large Rural Experiments
Sampling Error
Treatment Assignment Error
non-random sampling
Interference and Representativity in Large Rural Experiments
Interference
Extrapolation
PROSPERA – Eligible Clinics
Overview
Spatial Dynamics of PROSPERA Context
PROSPERA – National Social Program
A Large Scale Experiment
Extrapolation and Target Population Experiment Design
Choice of Experimental Sample
Interference Gravity Model
Tradeoff Analysis
Interference and Representativity in Large Rural Experiments