BAE Systems Australia Tracey Clavell Head of Estimating and Pricing – Corporate Defence Cost Estimating Conference Adelaide July 2011 1DCEC July 2011 Commercial.

BAE Systems AustraliaTracey ClavellHead of Estimating and Pricing – CorporateDefence Cost Estimating Conference Adelaide July 2011

1DCEC July 2011 Commercial in Confidence

Quotes from Wikipedia

• Estimation is the calculated approximation of a result which is usable even if input data may be incomplete or uncertain.

• In statistics,• estimation theory and estimator, for topics involving inferences

about probability distributions

• forecasting and prediction, for estimation of yet-to-be observed quantities

• In mathematics, approximation or estimation typically means finding upper or lower bounds of a quantity that cannot readily be computed precisely

Commercial in Confidence 2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calculation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Approximation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty

End to End Estimating at BAE Systems Australia


Cradle to Grave Estimating


Processes

People & Professionalisation

Tools

Subcontracts / SuppliersCCP &EAC’s

VOPPBC

Pre Contract Post Contract

1st Pass 2nd Pass

DCP

DesignSubcontracts / Suppliers

VOPPBC

FIS

Techniques & Metrics

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Estimating Techniques

Commercial in Confidence

• Top Down Vs Bottom up

• Multiple Methods

• Metrics

• Risk and Uncertainty

• Three Point Estimating

6

Parametric

DetailedAnalogy

Parametric

DetailedAnalogous

Little Confidence1 method per bid

More ConfidenceMultiple methods per bid

Multiple methods of Estimating

DCEC July 2011 Commercial in Confidence

7

True Planning – Top Down Parametric Estimating

Commercial in ConfidenceDCEC July 2011

Types of Parametric Estimating

• Should Costs for Subcontracts / Suppliers

• Design for Cost

• Cost as an Independent Variable

• Top Down Validation

• Cost Benefit Analysis


Benefits of Parametric Estimating

• Supports Bid / No Bid decisions

• Supports Strategic Reform Program

• To validate / challenge Subcontractor quotes

• Supports initial design costing

• Additional validation point for other methods

• Quicker to generate ROMs and Indicative Pricing

Commercial in Confidence 9DCEC July 2011

Parametric Journey Thus Far

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011

Maturity

Tool Calibration

DemandHardware trg & Licenses

True Planning plus ICT trg & Licenses

Logistics

Training

& Licences

Evaluation of Software License & trg


People and Developing Capability

• Standard Position Descriptions

• Developing You Program

• Competency Matrix

• Career Ladder

• External membership and accreditation

• Diversity and Inclusion

• Mentoring and Leadership

11Commercial in ConfidenceDCEC July 2011

Estimating & Pricing Tools

• True Planning - Parametric Estimating

• Phoenix - Estimating Capture Tool

• Open Plan – Scheduling

• ProPricer – Pricing Tool

• Predict – Risk Collation and Monte Carlo


13

Phoenix – Estimating Capture Tool

Commercial in ConfidenceDCEC July 2011

Lessons Learned

• DAREO

• Stability & Sensitivity

• Management of the Supply Chain

• Indexation & Cost Principles

• Demonstrate Value for Money

• Performance Based Contracting


End to End Estimating – Getting the Balance Right


All Done Any Questions ?


BAE Systems Australia Tracey Clavell Head of Estimating and Pricing – Corporate Defence Cost Estimating Conference Adelaide July 2011 1DCEC July 2011 Commercial.

Documents

confidence slide

point estimating slide

grave estimating commercial

end estimating

confidence3 slide

confidence2 slide

types of parametric

confidence dcec