Azeem Azhar Should You be Afraid of Artificial Intelligence? BoS2016

SHOULD YOU BE AFRAID OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE?Azeem Azhar @azeem

Schibsted Media Group

@azeem

HELLO! MY NAME IS AZEEM AZHAR

➤ Product manager at Schibsted Media Group

➤ Norwegian media & classifieds group with operations in 29 countries & 7,000 employees

➤ Curate, Exponential View (http://azeem.io/s)

➤ @azeem on Twitter

➤ [email protected]

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SHOULD YOU BE AFRAID OF AI? (TL;DL - NO!)

Boom or winter Accelerants Implications Actions

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WHAT IS AI?

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THE MONEY IS FLOWING

7x in 5 years

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THE BIG GUYS ARE MUSCLING IN

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THE SEVEN ACCELERANTS OF THE AI BOOM

Moore’s Law

Data explosion

Collaboration

Software eats the world

APIs & microservices

Open source

Lock-in

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WE CREATE MORE TRANSISTORS EVERY 0.1S THAN THERE ARE STARS IN THE GALAXY

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APPLE WATCH MORE POWERFUL THAN A CRAY 2

Fits in a room

1.6Gflops

1985

Fits in a pocket

1.9Gflops

2010

Fits on a wrist

>3Gflops

2015

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GPUS HAVE BEEN A STEP-CHANGE TECHNOLOGY

https://devblogs.nvidia.com/parallelforall/inference-next-step-gpu-accelerated-deep-learning/

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44ZB OF DATA BY 2020, 44X IN 11 YEARS

Sources: IDC, Azeem Azhar analysis

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Data volume

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COLLABORATION

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SOFTWARE EATS THE WORLD

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APIS & MICROSERVICES

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OPEN SOURCE STRATEGIES FROM MAJORS

Major global internet companies release internal machine learning & AI frameworks

G, M & F: Cognitively-rich API services available too

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THE AI LOCK-IN LOOP

Video games

Search

Mobile UI

Defense

CRM

Finance

Health

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Stuff is getting better

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BETTER THAN HUMAN: OBJECT DETECTION IN IMAGES

Source: Imagenet / https://devblogs.nvidia.com/parallelforall/mocha-jl-deep-learning-julia/

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BETTER THAN HUMAN: WIDE RANGE OF VIDEO GAMES

(Better at action oriented than exploration oriented games)

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Patrick Rhodes: http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/8791241/Artificial-Intelligence-Solving-the-Chinese-Room-Argument.html

BETTER THAN HUMAN: CHESS

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BETTER THAN HUMAN: GO

Alpha Go

1920 CPU 280 GPU

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GOOD AS HUMAN: VERBAL IQ

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BETTER THAN HUMAN: SUTURING INTESTINAL TISSUE

Source http://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/robotics/medical-robots/autonomous-robot-surgeon-bests-human-surgeons-in-world-first

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BETTER THAN HUMAN: PREDICTIONS & BETTING

Predicted top 4 finishers of 2016 Kentucky Derby on May 8th. 540-1 odds.

http://www.techrepublic.com/article/swarm-ai-predicts-the-2016-kentucky-derby/

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APPROACHING HUMAN: VISUAL Q&A

https://avisingh599.github.io/deeplearning/visual-qa/

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2: APPLICATIONS ARE GETTING BETTER

Better foundational blocks

NLP

CV

µSVC

Data Eng

APIs Data Quality

Integrated applications

Customer service

Querying

Legal

Engineering

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LAWYERS, DRIVERS, PAS, JOURNALISTS

EMMA

Q&A; discovery; precedent detection based on IBM Watson

Autonomous vehicles; networked learning system

Autonomous writing tool

NLP-rich scheduling and calendaring assistant

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IMPLICATIONS FOR TECH BUSINESSES

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PLAY OR PRAY

PLAY

BUILD A DATA MOAT

SEMANTICALLY SENSIBLE INTERFACES

KEEP THE HUMAN IN THE LOOP

PROCESSES NOT ONESHOT

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HOW WILL YOU BUILD YOUR DATA MOAT?

BUILD A DATA

MOAT

CORE ALGORITHMS / FRAMEWORKS ARE IN

OPEN SOURCE

UNIQUR AI NEEDS UNIQUE DATA

BUILD A DATA ACQUISITION STRATEGY

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HOW WILL YOU ENSURE COHERENT SEMANTICS IN EXPOSED INTERFACES?

CLEAN APIS

EASIER TO INTEGRATE IN OTHER INTELLIGENT

SYSTEMS

EASIER TO OPTIMISE

NARROW AI

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KEEP THE HUMAN IN THE LOOP

HUMANS NEEDED

ONGOING TRAINING

LAST-MILE

RISK MANAGEMENT

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BUILD THE RIGHT PROCESSES

HUMANS NEEDED

ONGOING TRAINING INVESTMENT

UNDERSTAND YOUR TRADEOFFS

HOW TO SECURE BETTER DATA

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SHOULD YOU BE SCARED OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE?

➤ Huge opportunities to build better products & reach new markets

➤ Competitive threat if you do not innovate ➤ Expensive and requires internal capability

building (so hard) ➤ Unlikely to end humanity right in near future.

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YOUR VIEW?

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Carpe diem!

Azeem Azhar @azeem

Schibsted Media Group