Ayanamsa Statistical Study Page 1 Ayanamsas—A Statistical Study Buz Overbeck September 14, 2007 Twenty five ayanamsas were applied to the moon’s position in the lunar mansions, or nakshatras, of 12 large data sets of timed births. These in- cluded a random ayanamsa and the tropical zodiac (ayanamsa = 0 ◦ 00 0 00 00 ). Although some of the ayanamsas showed significance for some of the data sets, no single ayanamsa showed significance in all of the tests. This sug- gests that, for the moon in the nakshatras and the data sets in question, the use of any ayanamsa is as good as none. 1 Introduction The fundamental metric of sidereal astrology—East and West—is the ayanamsa 1 This value is critical to the definition and calculation of all astrological charts, methods and techniques in the sidereal system. One small change in the value of the ayanamsa used collaterally impacts all of the succeeding results. This study includes 25 different ayanamsas which were chosen as being the most readily available as options in the more popular software programs and astrological libraries. The purpose of this study is to see which—if any—of the included ayanamsas stand out in a series of strict statistical tests. Although there is much anecdotal evidence of the validity of the chosen ayanamsa by its adherents, a search of the literature failed to turn up any detailed statistical study of various ayanamsa values. This work serves to fill that gap and encourage further research by others. Notes and references on Page 16
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Ayanamsa Statistical Study Page 1
Ayanamsas—A Statistical Study
Buz Overbeck
September 14, 2007
Twenty five ayanamsas were applied to the moon’s position in the lunarmansions, or nakshatras, of 12 large data sets of timed births. These in-cluded a random ayanamsa and the tropical zodiac (ayanamsa = 0 ◦00 ′00 ′′).Although some of the ayanamsas showed significance for some of the datasets, no single ayanamsa showed significance in all of the tests. This sug-gests that, for the moon in the nakshatras and the data sets in question,the use of any ayanamsa is as good as none.
1 Introduction
The fundamental metric of sidereal astrology—East and West—is the ayanamsa1 Thisvalue is critical to the definition and calculation of all astrological charts, methods andtechniques in the sidereal system. One small change in the value of the ayanamsa usedcollaterally impacts all of the succeeding results.
This study includes 25 different ayanamsas which were chosen as being the most readilyavailable as options in the more popular software programs and astrological libraries.The purpose of this study is to see which—if any—of the included ayanamsas stand outin a series of strict statistical tests.
Although there is much anecdotal evidence of the validity of the chosen ayanamsa by itsadherents, a search of the literature failed to turn up any detailed statistical study ofvarious ayanamsa values. This work serves to fill that gap and encourage further researchby others.
Notes and references on Page 16
Ayanamsa Statistical Study Page 2
2 The “Two” Zodiacs
In all methods of calculating a sidereal chart—by hand or computer—the routine is thesame. Given the Date, Time and Place of the event:
1. Calculate the tropical positions of the planets.
2. Calculate the tropical house positions for the location.
3. Calculate the ayanamsa for the date and time.
4. Subtract the value of the ayanamsa from the tropical planets and houses, giving
5. The sidereal positions of the planets and houses.
The equation is:Szλ = Tzλ + At (1)
Where:Szλ = sidereal zodiac longitudeTzλ = tropical zodiac longitudeAt = the ayanamsa at time t where the ayanamsa is a negative value From this it isclear that the ayanamsa is the difference between the “two zodiacs” and, if the siderealzodiac is the foundation of Hindu astrology, the value of the ayanamsa is critical to itscredibility.
Although astrologers commonly speak of the “tropical/moveable zodiac” or the “side-real/fixed zodiac” that’s only a convenience as it is understood that there is only onezodiac, just different starting points. As the zodiac is a circle, any point on that circlecan be a legitimate starting point for an astrological reference system and, although thetropical starting point is well defined, the same can’t be said for the sidereal. This leadsto an interesting paradox:
• Tropical – Called the “moveable” zodiac because it’s fiducial, the spring equinox, isslipping backwards against the background of the fixed stars at the rate of about 50.3′′
a year. However, the tropical zodiac is fixed in that it’s fiducial is set each year andagreed upon by all tropical astrologers. There is no ambiguity in the tropical startingpoint.
Notes and references on Page 16
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• Sidereal – Called the “fixed” zodiac because its fiducial is linked to a fixed star. How-ever, the sidereal zodiac is actualy moveable as ”“fixed” stars all have proper motionand so are not really fixed at all. Further, with any number of different ayanamsaspointing to different starting points for the sidereal zodiac it can’t in any way be thoughtof as fixed. The starting point is ambiguous at best and is a source of disagreementthroughout the sidereal world.
Many sidereal astrologers believe that the planetary positions shown in their charts reflectthe actual positions of the planets in the constellations thus making theirs the correctzodiac. However, the plethora of ayanamsas makes this claim spurious. As an example,calculate a chart 6:46:04 PM on 27 October 2006 and you will see the Sun at 4◦ Scorpio25′ and Mercury at 25◦ Scorpio 02′, tropically. You can give that date and time to 10different tropical astrologers located anywhere in the world and they will all come upwith the exact same positions for the Sun and Mercury.
However, give the same data to 10 sidereal astrologers world wide and they could possiblycome up with 10 different positions for the same planets, depending on the ayanamsa inuse. For example, four of the ayanamsas in our list give the following sidereal positions:
So, where exactly is the Sun and Mercury in the correct zodiac? This is just a sample.One of the software packages I use has 19 other ayanamsas to work with, none of whichcan conclusively be shown to be the correct one.
3 The Elephant in the Room
A recent Google search for the word ayanamsa returned 22,800 links so the term is notunknown. Yet, on the Internet blogs, forums and newsgroups it is seldom mentioned.There are always a few technical participants who do bring up the ayanamsa controversy,but mainly to promote their own value.
Given the importance of the ayanamsa in all sidereal astrological schools it is surprisingthat the majority of practitioners seem to be unconcerned2.
Notes and references on Page 16
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On the venues mentioned above, the focus currently seems to be on birth time rectification,where the time of birth is refined to hours, minutes and seconds and then confirmed byvarious techniques whose validity rests squarely on the ayanamsa. Two of the mostfavored are the Dasa–Bhutki–Antaradasa system of timing, which relies on the moon’sposition in the nakshatras at birth (the same criterion as the present study), and, lately,Divisional Charts, where the natal planetary positions are multiplied by some factor tocreate a new chart supposedly relevant to a specific area of life. For example, in the D10chart where professional concerns are shown, the natal positions are multiplied by 10. Inrectification, a D60 chart is sometimes used so that all natal factors are multiplied by60. Of course, any error in the basic calculation of the natal positions—such as a wrongayanamsa—is multiplied by the same factor.
Many Western sidereal astrologers weren’t aware of there being any ayanamsa other thanFagan/Bradley as that was what they were trained with. The situation is similar withHindu practitioners who would use what they were taught by their Guru or teacher.
Those astrologers of both camps who were aware of ayanamsas other than the one theyused would defend their ayanamsa vigorously although when pressed for reasons wouldmostly reply “it works for me”. However, most intriguing is the activity in the InternetHindu/Vedic astrology forums where all sorts of charts, systems and predictions areexplored and exchanged between astrologers with nary a mention of what ayanamsa wasused leaving one to wonder what page anyone is on.
So how can many sidereal astrologers, using different ayanamsas, all have their charts“work” for them? Garth Allen in an article for American Astrology magazine, (see refer-ence below), explains it this way:
The point we are getting at here is that a randomly invented, wholly groundlessayanamsa will yield highly “significant” ingress charts for a majority of events.Yes, we said majority, and meant it. A phony vernal point will “work” so well, somuch of the time, that at first glance any value you might fabricate on the spur ofthe moment has a good prospect of seeming like a major astrological “discovery.”
If you are reluctant to believe this, take the first telephone number having sixdigits in your local directory and con yourself into considering it to be the genuineayanamsa in degrees, minutes and seconds, for any event you want to “study.”
The odds are surely better than 50-50 that by your third ingress chart for theevent, using this fake ayanamsa, pretending it to be real, you’ll come up with apersuasively “accurate” horoscopic picture of the event. If the event is a catastro-phe, there are enough malefics in the sky, and more than enough square aspectswithin reach of at least one of your two, three, four or more sets of angular cuspsto fill the bill and produce a “triumph” for the ersatz ayanamsa employed.
Notes and references on Page 16
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We tested his theory by including a random Phone Book ayanamsa in this study.
4 Previous Studies
A search of the Internet for previous statistical studies turned up only two. The firstand earliest was “How to Unvex a Vexed Question!”, an article by Donald Bradley writ-ing as Garth Allen for American Astrology magazine3. In this article Bradley detailshis work with Cyril Fagan in discovering the Synetic Vernal Point or SVP, now knowas the Fagan/Bradley ayanamsa. This was done by refining and correcting the Lahiriayanamsa against hundreds of Ingress charts. It seems to be the first serious study inthe determination of a “correct” value.
In the other study, “The Sun in the Lunar Mansions”4, 3 ayanamsas—Fagan/Bradley,Lahiri and tropical (ayanamsa = 0◦)—were tested peripherally as the main thrust of thestudy was an analysis of the sun’s position in the lunar mansions. Here, a statisticalstudy was made of the solar positions of 2,492 clergy in 3 different zodiacs and 4 lunarmansion schemes. In all, 8 sidereal and 4 tropical classes of 27 or 28 lunar mansionswere tested. The results of this study was rather surprising: the combination showingthe greatest statistical significance was the tropical solar distribution in the 28 LunarMansions measured from 0◦ Taurus with a percentile of 99.8%.
5 The Present Study
The present study is composed of five components, Design, Ayanamsas, Data, Test Statis-tic and Methodology, as follows.
5.1 The Design
The study was designed to include certain parameters specific to Hindu sidereal astrology.Hindu astrology is know for its predictive ability with some astrologers claiming anaccuracy level up to 90%! The main predictive tool of the Hindu astrologer is a techniquecalled Vimshotarri Dasa, a system that is based on the moon’s sidereal position in thenakshatras (or lunar mansions) at birth. From that position, a series of time periods arelaid out based on the cycle of the remaining planets. The complete system is too complexto describe here but a good text on the subject can be found here5.
Notes and references on Page 16
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Based on this, it was decided that a valid test of ayanamsas must include the moon’ssidereal position and the nakshatra or mansion it was in at the time of birth of eachdatum. This meant that all birth data collected must have a birth time associated withit. With that in mind, the study was designed to incorporate the following parameters:
• Data sets including the Date, Place and Time of birth.
• Ayanamsas currently in use or available.
• Calculations to tally the moon’s position in the nakshatra at birth.
• An appropriate test statistic to evaluate the significance of the study.
Some might object that the moon and/or the nakshatras are not applicable to the datasets used. That is, that neither have anything to do with an individual’s profession. Thisis simply not true. In Hindu astrology the moon governs the mind and the mind governsthe individual and his/her inclinations. No one can argue with the fact that certainprofessions—scientists, military leaders, artists, writers, etc.—all share a certain mindset. Those data sets are included here.
Additionally, other data sets are included which represent an unhealthy or diseased mind.These included alcoholics, murderers, psychotics and schizophrenics. Any consultingastrologer would look at the moon to access the mental condition and health of a clientexhibiting these attributes.
Finally, in the Hindu system, the zodiac is divided into the 27 nakshatras, or constel-lations, each with a length of 360◦/ 27 = 13◦ 20′, ≈ the moon’s daily motion. As themoon’s position in the nakshatra at birth is considered far more important the sun-signposition, so important in the West, it is certainly relevant here.
5.2 The Ayanamsas
A group of 25 ayanamsas—including the tropical (= 0◦)—were included in this study. Ofthat group, 18 are standard in the Swiss Ephemeris library, a collection of astrologicalroutines incorporated in many popular software packages. A complete description ofthese can be found in the Swiss Ephemeris documentation6. It is unlikely that all ofthe Swiss Ephemeris ayanamsas are in use. However, as they are available, they wereincluded in the study.
These 18 are supplemented by 6 more ayanamsas that are often mentioned, or have webpages, on the Internet, each with their own group of followers. Here, no weight was givenas to the reasonableness of logic behind the proposed values. They are available, popularand in use and so are included.
Notes and references on Page 16
Ayanamsa Statistical Study Page 7
In the east, the most popular ayanamsa included here is Lahiri, but not always for theright reason. Many astrologers think the Indian Government chose Lahiri as their choicefor astrological use and, so, use it for that reason. However, Lahiri was adopted bythe Indian Government for calendar (not astrological) reform7. In the West, the Fa-gan/Bradley ayanamsa is by far the most popular with many western sidereal astrologersunaware that others exist.
We chose a random ayanamsa by following the advise of Garth Allen above. We pickedthe first number found in our phone book and called this the Phone Book ayanamsa.
Notes and references on Page 16
Ayanamsa Statistical Study Page 8
The table includes the source of the ayanamsa, the reference (SE = Swiss Ephemeris, PC= Personal Communications), the Year of Coincidence and the values for the ayanamsasand the moon calculated for 6:46:04 PM on 27 October 2006 at 32◦N 15′, 97◦W 46′, TZ+5.
SOURCE REF. AYANAMSA Y.O.C. MOON
Fagan/Bradley SE -24◦ 50′ 10′′ 221 AD 16◦ Sag 00′
Lahiri SE -23◦ 57′ 10′′ 285 AD 16◦ Sag 14′
De Luce SE -27◦ 54′ 19′′ 1 BC 12◦ Sag 56′
Raman SE -22◦ 30′ 24′′ 389 AD 18◦ Sag 20′
Sassanian SE -20◦ 05′ 20′′ 564 AD 20◦ Sag 45′
Ushashashi SE -20◦ 09′ 11′′ 559 AD 20◦ Sag 41′
Hipparchos SE -20◦ 20′ 34′′ 545 AD 20◦ Sag 30′
Djwhal Khool SE -28◦ 27′ 19′′ 41 BC 12◦ Sag 23′
Yukteshwar SE -22◦ 34′ 28′′ 292 AD 18◦ Sag 16′
JN Bhasin SE -22◦ 51′ 28′′ 364 AD 17◦ Sag 59′
Babylonian, Huber SE -24◦ 43′ 43′′ 229 AD 16◦ Sag 07′
Babylonian, Kugler 1 SE -25◦ 55′ 43′′ 143 AD 14◦ Sag 55′
Babylonian, Kugler 2 SE -24◦ 31′ 43′′ 243 AD 16◦ Sag 19′
Babylonian, Kugler 3 SE -23◦ 40′ 43′′ 305 AD 17◦ Sag 10′
Babylonian, Mercier SE -24◦ 37′ 03′′ 237 AD 16◦ Sag 13′
Galactic Center SE -26◦ 56′ 55′′ 69 AD 13◦ Sag 53′
Krishnamurti SE -23◦ 51′ 22′′ 292 AD 16◦ Sag 59′
Aldebaran at 15 Taurus SE -24◦ 51′ 16′′ 220 AD 15◦ Sag 59′
Chandra-Hiri8 PC -24◦ 40′ 43′′ 233 AD 16◦ Sag 10′
Tarun Chopra9 PC -11◦ 53′ 43′′ 1153 AD 28◦ Sag 57′
Dhira10 PC -23◦ 09′ 48′′ 342 AD 17◦ Sag 41′
Krushna11 PC -23◦ 02′ 54′′ 350 AD 17◦ Sag 47′
Wilhelm Ardra12 PC -23◦ 30′ 16′′ 317 AD 17◦ Sag 20′
Phone Book -NA- -87◦ 56′ 08′′ -NA- 12◦ Lib 54′
tropical -NA- -00◦ 00′ 00′′ -NA- 10◦ Cap 50′
As can be seen from the table, the values tested range from 0◦ (tropical) to 88◦ (PhoneBook). Dismissing these outliers gives a range of from 11◦ Tarun Chopra to 28◦ DjwhalKhool and disagreements in the Year of Coincidence from 41 BC re: Djwhal Khool to1153 AD re: Tarun Chopra.
Notes and references on Page 16
Ayanamsa Statistical Study Page 9
5.3 The Data
The major challenge of the study was to find a credible source of complete birth data.One of the shortcomings of the Sun in the Lunar Mansions study was that the sun’sposition for each person’s birthdate was calculated for noon on that date rather than anindividual birth time. As one of the parameters of this study was the moon’s positionin a lunar mansion, the data used had to include time of birth in order to accuratelydetermine the lunar position in the nakshatra.
It was also considered important to find and include more than one, large data set so thatthe results of the first test could face replication. As it turned out, we were fortunateenough to find, not only one or two data sets but twelve, all made available through thegenerosity of the the Michel Gauquelin Archives13.
Each data file was downloaded from the site. The records of each data file appeared tobe coded for punch cards. An example from the Painters data file looks like this:
P 1F30101853155040 048N36 2E20ETAMPES 91
A program was written to read each raw data file, decode each record, and rewrite thedata to a format more accessible for use in the main analysis program. At the sametime, each record was processed by a sub-routine to check for the validity of each date.This routine did find a few errors in each data set, such as February 30 or September31, etc. These were clearly data entry errors and a few were to be expected. It can alsobe expected for there to be other entry errors that, while valid, were simply incorrect.For instance, the operator could have entered 16 March when 15 March was intended.Fortunately, the Law of Large Numbers protects the results due to the size of the datasets, for the law states that the larger the sample the smaller the error and these datasets are very large.
Once processed, the above record was rewritten as follows:
18531030|155040|0|48N36|2E20
or30 October 1853, 15:50:40 GMT TZ: 0hr 48◦ N 36′– Lon: 002◦ E 20′
Notes and references on Page 16
Ayanamsa Statistical Study Page 10
Note that all of the birth times given in the data files have already been converted tostandard time, so the seconds shown in the above record results from a LMT to Standardtime conversion; the birth time of record was recorded in hours and minutes only.
Each of the 12 data files were processed in this manner resulting in 12 reformatted datafiles for use in the main program.
5.4 The Test Statistic
Before the tests were run, a proper statistical measurement had to be selected and testinghypotheses developed. The research hypothesis is that a relationship exists between theayanamsa tested and the data tested against. The null hypothesis is that no relationshipexists between the ayanamsa tested and the data tested against. In other words there isno difference between the observed and expected number of cases in the test, and thatany observed differences are nearly chance variations to be expected in the sample.
The statistic selected was the χ2 (Chi-Square) test, which measures the extent to whicha distribution among various categories differs from chance. The null hypothesis H0 isformed and then tested with
χ2 =k∑
i=1
(Oi − Ei)2
Ei
(2)
Where:Oi = observed number of cases categorized in the ith categoryEi = expected number of cases in the ith category under H0∑k
i=1 directs one to sum over all (k) categories
The expected frequencies can be derived from the null hypothesis. As H0 states thatthere is no relationship between the observed and expected frequencies—the proportionof cases in each category are the same—then Ei = N
k, where N is the number of cases in
each data set (sample size) and k = 27, the number of nakshatras or lunar mansions.
However, for this study we chose to calculate the expected frequencies directly by havingthe program compute the sidereal position of the moon, and the nakshatra in which itfell, for 12:00 GMT on each day of the data span. In the Military data set example shownbelow, this involved 46,383 separate calculations, the number of days in the data span.
The results of these calculations gave the actual number of cases or frequencies over thedata span. The following equation was then used to normalize these numbers for use inEquation (2):
Notes and references on Page 16
Ayanamsa Statistical Study Page 11
Ei = N(A
D) (3)
Where:Ei = the expected frequenciesN = the sample sizeA = the actual frequenciesD = time span of the data set in days
A level of significance of α = 0.05 was selected. A table of critical values for chi-squareat 0.05 for 26 degrees of freedom (27 Nakshatras - 1) gives 38.89 as the value to beat inorder to reject the null hypothesis with 95 percent confidence. So, in order for the nullhypothesis to be rejected, the calculated χ2 value must greater than, or equal to 38.89.
5.5 The Method
Once all twelve data sets were downloaded from the Gauqelin archives and the data fileformats converted for use in the test, an ayanamsa data file was created which includedeach ayanamsa and the parameters needed to calculate it for each date. A program waswritten to process the data and compute the expected and observed frequencies of themoon in the nakshatras for each ayanamsa and data set. The program performed asfollows:
1. Open the Ayanamsa file
2. Open the first Data file
3. Find the first and last date in the file and find the difference in days
4. Read in the first ayanamsa
5. Calculate the Actual frequencies: For each day of the data set
(a) Calculate the moon’s sidereal position at noon for that day
(b) Find and tally the nakshatra of the moon for that position
(c) Normalize to Expected frequencies—Equation (3)
(d) Repeat for the next day
6. Calculate the Observed frequencies: For each record in the Data file:
(a) Calculate the moon’s sidereal position at the recorded date and time
Notes and references on Page 16
Ayanamsa Statistical Study Page 12
(b) Find and tally the nakshatra of the moon for that position
(c) Repeat for the next record
7. Calculate chi-square statistic—Equation (2)
8. Write results to disk for that ayanamsa
9. Repeat for the next ayanamsa
The above outlines one run for the ayanamsas against one Data set. It was repeated foreach of the remaining eleven Data sets.
5.6 Example: Military Data Set
The Military data file has 3,046 records and a date range from 11/14/1798 to 11/12/1925,a difference of 46,383 days. A histogram of the data shows an interesting pattern.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940
Births
Years
Military Histogram
Rather than a normal bell curve, three distinctive peaks are shown, the first and majorpeak at 77 births in 1866, the second at 59 births in 1891 and the third at 34 births in1917. The complete test run on the Military sample can be found in Appendix B. Eightof the 25 ayanamsas had χ2 values exceeding the critical value of 38.89. These were, inorder:
Notes and references on Page 16
Ayanamsa Statistical Study Page 13
Ayanamsa Odds χ2 Value
1. Hipparchos 47.07 144 to 1 18◦ 19′ 32′′
2. Sassanian 45.73 102 to 1 18◦ 04′ 15′′
3. Ushashashi 44.66 78 to 1 18◦ 08′ 07′′
4. Phone Book 43.79 62 to 1 85◦ 55′ 04′′
5. Yukteshwar 41.19 33 to 1 20◦ 33′ 24′′
6. Raman 41.04 32 to 1 20◦ 29′ 20′′
7. Dhira 40.68 29 to 1 21◦ 08′ 45′′
8. JN Bhasin 40.18 26 to 1 20◦ 50′ 24′′
The values of the ayanamsas are taken at the midpoint of the data range, or May 14, 1862.Ignoring the Phone Book ayanamsa for the moment, the difference between the minimumand maximum value is 3◦ 04′ 30′′ which equals 11,070 ′′ of arc. As the precessional rateis ≈ 53′′ per year this equates to a difference of around 209 years. Including the PhoneBook value in the mix clearly renders the results unreliable. If we are looking for adefinitive, true ayanamsa we won’t find it here.
6 Ayanamsa Test Results
The results of the tests are summarized here by Data Sets. Required probability isp ≤ 0.05 giving odds of 20 to 1 or greater. Some tests—noted with * —have multiplehits and in those cases only the most significant ayanamsa is listed. The complete setand details of all test runs can be found in Appendix A.
1,472 Painters No ayanamsa passed – See Appendix A for details.
1.793 Alcoholics Tarun Chopra passed with p = 0.04 Odds = 23 to 1
3,046 Military * Hipparchos passed with p = 0.01 Odds = 144 to 1
3,646 Scientists * Phone Book passed with p = 0.02 Odds = 41 to 1
1,392 Actors * 20 of the 25 ayanamsas passed – See Appendix A for details.
2,018 Writers No ayanamsa passed – See Appendix A for details.
621 Murders * All ayanamsas passed – See Appendix A for details.
1,247 Musicians No ayanamsa passed – See Appendix A for details.
Notes and references on Page 16
Ayanamsa Statistical Study Page 14
1,002 Politicians No ayanamsa passed – See Appendix A for details.
2,087 Sports Champions Sassanian passed with p = 0.04 Odds 22 to 1
1,265 Schizophrenics * Phone Book passed with p = 0.01 Odds = 188 to 1
1,136 Psychotics No ayanamsa passed – See Appendix A for details.
To summarize, not counting the Actor set where 20 out of 25 passed, and the Murdererset where all ayanamsas passed, the following had hits:
1. 4 Hits - Sassanian
2. 3 Hits - Phone Book
3. 2 Hits - Hipparchos
4. 2 Hits - Ushashashi
5. 1 Hit - Taurn Chopra
Curiously, the most popular of all of the ayanamsas—Lahiri—did poorly in all of thetests, falling in the 2nd half of all tested in 9 out of 12 cases.
7 Conclusions
If there is a true ayanamsa, it is not a part of this test group. Of the 25 ayanamsastested the one with the most significant showing is Sassanian with a total of 4 out of 12tests. This would prove noteworthy if it wasn’t followed by the fictitious Phone Bookayanamsa totaling 3 out of 12 hits.
Of the 12 tests, 5, or 42%, had no significant ayanamsa, 20, or 80% of the ayanamsasshowed significance in the Actors test and all ayanamas proved significant in the Murderstest.
One can only conclude that, in astrological techniques involving the moon’s position inthe nakshatras, or lunar mansions, use of any of the included ayanamsas—or none atall—is pointless.
Perhaps the most important result of this study is the confirmation of the need forreplication of any statistical test performed. The first test actually run was on the 1,793Alcoholics and the Tarun Chopra ayanamsa stood out as the winner. If the test wasn’treplicated, one could have rushed into print claiming the true ayanamsa had been found.
Notes and references on Page 16
Ayanamsa Statistical Study Page 15
It is hoped that this study will inspire others to perform similar tests. Some usefulmodifications to this test might include:
• Current data sets verified by a rating system.
• Testing the Ascendant in the nakshatras.
• Testing the moon corrected for parallax.
• The addition of newly proposed ayanamsas.
Clearly, more work needs to be done if a well-defined platform for astrology is to beestablished.
Notes and references on Page 16
Ayanamsa Statistical Study Page 16
Notes
1. The Ayanamsa is a Hindu term standing for the difference between the tropical zodiac of the seasons and the siderealzodiac of the constellations. It seeks to correct the following anomaly caused by a phenomena know as the Precession ofthe Equinoxes.
In the circle of the ecliptic known as the zodiac, the vernal equinox is used as the starting point. This is the date andtime when the Sun, moving from south to north, crosses the celestial equator. This point is also known as the First Pointof Aries, or 0 degrees Aries and occurs on or around March 21 in the northern hemisphere. This point also defines whatis known as the tropical Zodiac.
At one time in the distant past, the 1st. point of Aries coincided with 0 degrees of the constellation Aries (siderealAries), which is where it got its name. However, due to various factors in the earths orbit, 0 degrees tropical Aries hasbeen slipping backwards against the framework of 0 degrees of the constellation Aries at a rate of almost 1 minute of arca year. Although there is controversy over in exactly which year tropical Aries and sidereal Aries coincided, mostgenerally agree that at present there is about a 24 degree difference between the two zodiacal starting points. This meansthat presently the spring equinox actually takes place in around 6 degrees Pisces (remember, it’s slipping backwards from0 degrees Aries). Eventually, it will slip back from Pisces into 30 degrees Aquarius, at which time the Age of Aquariuswill really begin. Using the above numbers, that should be around the year 2364.
2.Although there are sidereal schools with different traditions, the two main schools are the Eastern (Hindu) and Western.Of the two, the Western school, founded in 1944 by Cyril Fagan, is affected the least by the ayanamsa as, in the chartsand techniques they most depend on (solar and lunar returns), only the signs will change while the house positions of theplanets and the aspects between them will remain the same regardless of the ayanamsa used. The Eastern schoolhowever, with a tradition dating some 5000 years, have macro and micro technical charts and sub-charts that are greatlyimpacted by even a small change in the value of the ayanamsa. For the remainder of this report it will be theEastern-Hindu sidereal system referred to.
3.How to Unvex a Vexed Question!, Garth Allen, American Astrology Magazine August 1964.
4.The Sun in the Lunar Mansions, Buz Overbeck, Cosmocology Bulletin #10/11 NY - 1980.
5.Directional Astrology of the Hindus. V. G. Rele, D. B. Taraporevala Sons & Co. 1973
7. History of Ayanamsa Controvery Chandra-Hari, Personal Communication. Chandra-Hiri explains the problemsleading up to the establishment of an “official” ayanamsa:
India had more than thirty regional calendars prevalent at the time of independence and hence the need wasfelt for a uniform National Calendar. To resolve the above mystery as well as to get rid of the multitude ofin-congruities prevailing with the regional calendars of India the Government of India appointed a CalendarReform Committee under the chairmanship of Prof. Meghanad Saha in November 1952. The Committee wasentrusted with the task of examining all the existing calendars, which are being followed in the country atpresent and after a scientific study of the subject submit proposals for an accurate and uniform calendar forthe whole of India
As to the Indian Government endorsing their choice for astrological purposes. Chandra-Hiri goes on to say:
The Calendar reform committee had no respect towards the astrological aspect of the zodiac and the trueinitial point. Their sole aim was to achieve some sort of uniformity among the regional calendars byforwarding an official solution conforming to the prevalent tradition.