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27 October 2015 2QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Financials Axis Bank Alpesh Mehta ([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5415 Dhaval Gada ([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5505 BSE SENSEX S&P CNX CMP: INR521 TP: INR650 (+25%) Buy 27,253 8,233 Bloomberg AXSB IN Equity Shares (m) 2,370.5 M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b) 1,236/19 52-Week Range (INR) 655/420 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -4/-6/20 Avg Val(INR m) 3714 Free float (%) 70.5 Financials & Valuation (INR b) Y/E Mar 2016E 2017E 2018E NII 164.6 188.5 218.5 OP 159.8 185.7 215.4 NP 84.3 99.2 116.5 NIM (%) 3.6 3.6 3.4 EPS (INR) 35.6 41.8 49.1 EPS Gr. (%) 14.6 17.7 17.4 BV/Sh. (INR) 217 252 292 ABV/Sh. INR 212 246 286 RoE (%) 17.5 17.8 18.0 RoA (%) 1.7 1.7 1.7 Payout (%) 17.6 17.6 17.6 Valuations P/E(X) 14.7 12.5 10.6 P/BV (X) 2.4 2.1 1.8 P/ABV (X) 2.5 2.1 1.8 Div. Yield (%) 1.0 1.2 1.4 Inline results; Weak quarter marred by lumpy stress addition; Cut est. by ~3% Axis Bank’s (AXSB) 2QFY16 PAT was in line with estimates; however, on PPP, it missed our est. by 4%. Healthy NIM (stable QoQ at 3.85%) performance drove 3% NII beat while strong cost controls (+7% YoY) led to 9% beat on opex. Moderate fee growth (+14% YoY) and lower trading gains led to a 20% miss on other income. Slippages (excluding sale to ARC) declined QoQ to INR5.9b (1% of loans, annualized) v/s INR11.9b (2.1%). However, during the quarter, AXSB sold INR18.2b of loans to ARC for net consideration of INR6.5b (INR5.5b in security receipts and INR1b in cash). Loss on sale has been absorbed in 2Q using INR8.5b of contingency provisions and INR3.4b additional NPA provisions. The management continues to maintain 90bp credit cost guidance for FY16 (1% in 1HFY16). Continued traction in loan growth was led by strong growth in retail loans (+27% YoY) and corporate loans (+24% YoY; refinancing and non-rupee-denominated lending to high-rated corporate). Fee growth remained moderate at 14% YoY, led by lower growth in corporate fees (2% YoY v/s 8% in 1Q). Retail fees grew 20% YoY, similar to 1Q but lower than the past trajectory of 25%+ growth. CASA growth was moderate at 13% YoY led by 13%/12% YoY SA/CA growth. Avg. CASA ratio was stable at 40%, partially helped by moderate deposit growth. Other highlights: 1) Reported NIM improved 4bp QoQ to 3.85% led by 13bp improvement in cost of funds, 2) CET1 ratio improved marginally QoQ to 12.21%. Valuation and view: Healthy core operating performance compensated lower trading gains; however, stress addition guidance surprised negatively. Hence, we cut earnings by ~3%. The bank has utilized the moderate growth phase to build capacity and is geared to ride the next growth cycle with strong capitalization (12.2% Tier I), healthy RoA (1.8%) and expanding liability franchise (2,743 branches—17% CAGR over FY12- 15). High PCR (78%) and ~80bp of credit cost over FY15-18 provide cushion to earnings estimates. Reiterate Buy with a target price of INR650 (2.6x FY17E BV). Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
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Axis Bank - Business Standardbsmedia.business-standard.com/_media/bs/data/market... · 2016. 7. 13. · Axis Bank above rated corporate. SME advances (including non-retail agriculture

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  • 27 October 2015

    2QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Financials

    Axis Bank

    Alpesh Mehta ([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5415 Dhaval Gada ([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5505

    BSE SENSEX S&P CNX CMP: INR521 TP: INR650 (+25%) Buy 27,253 8,233 Bloomberg AXSB IN Equity Shares (m) 2,370.5 M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b) 1,236/19 52-Week Range (INR) 655/420 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -4/-6/20 Avg Val(INR m) 3714 Free float (%) 70.5

    Financials & Valuation (INR b) Y/E Mar 2016E 2017E 2018E

    NII 164.6 188.5 218.5 OP 159.8 185.7 215.4 NP 84.3 99.2 116.5 NIM (%) 3.6 3.6 3.4 EPS (INR) 35.6 41.8 49.1 EPS Gr. (%) 14.6 17.7 17.4 BV/Sh. (INR) 217 252 292 ABV/Sh. INR 212 246 286 RoE (%) 17.5 17.8 18.0 RoA (%) 1.7 1.7 1.7 Payout (%) 17.6 17.6 17.6 Valuations P/E(X) 14.7 12.5 10.6 P/BV (X) 2.4 2.1 1.8 P/ABV (X) 2.5 2.1 1.8 Div. Yield (%) 1.0 1.2 1.4

    Inline results; Weak quarter marred by lumpy stress addition; Cut est. by ~3% Axis Bank’s (AXSB) 2QFY16 PAT was in line with estimates; however, on PPP, it

    missed our est. by 4%. Healthy NIM (stable QoQ at 3.85%) performance drove 3% NII beat while strong cost controls (+7% YoY) led to 9% beat on opex. Moderate fee growth (+14% YoY) and lower trading gains led to a 20% miss on other income.

    Slippages (excluding sale to ARC) declined QoQ to INR5.9b (1% of loans, annualized) v/s INR11.9b (2.1%). However, during the quarter, AXSB sold INR18.2b of loans to ARC for net consideration of INR6.5b (INR5.5b in security receipts and INR1b in cash). Loss on sale has been absorbed in 2Q using INR8.5b of contingency provisions and INR3.4b additional NPA provisions. The management continues to maintain 90bp credit cost guidance for FY16 (1% in 1HFY16).

    Continued traction in loan growth was led by strong growth in retail loans (+27% YoY) and corporate loans (+24% YoY; refinancing and non-rupee-denominated lending to high-rated corporate). Fee growth remained moderate at 14% YoY, led by lower growth in corporate fees (2% YoY v/s 8% in 1Q). Retail fees grew 20% YoY, similar to 1Q but lower than the past trajectory of 25%+ growth.

    CASA growth was moderate at 13% YoY led by 13%/12% YoY SA/CA growth. Avg. CASA ratio was stable at 40%, partially helped by moderate deposit growth.

    Other highlights: 1) Reported NIM improved 4bp QoQ to 3.85% led by 13bp improvement in cost of funds, 2) CET1 ratio improved marginally QoQ to 12.21%.

    Valuation and view: Healthy core operating performance compensated lower trading gains; however, stress addition guidance surprised negatively. Hence, we cut earnings by ~3%. The bank has utilized the moderate growth phase to build capacity and is geared to ride the next growth cycle with strong capitalization (12.2% Tier I), healthy RoA (1.8%) and expanding liability franchise (2,743 branches—17% CAGR over FY12-15). High PCR (78%) and ~80bp of credit cost over FY15-18 provide cushion to earnings estimates. Reiterate Buy with a target price of INR650 (2.6x FY17E BV).

    Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

    http://www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities

  • 27 October 2015 2

    Axis Bank

    Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance: PAT in-line with estimates Y/E March 2QFY16A 2QFY16E Var. (%) Comments Net Interest Income 40,621 39,573 3

    Margins above expectations % Change (YoY) 15 12 Other Income 20,414 25,450 -20 Lower than expected trading profits and moderate fee income growth Net Income 61,035 65,023 -6 Operating Expenses 24,755 27,143 -9 Strong cost control despite higher share of retail business Operating Profit 36,280 37,880 -4 % Change (YoY) 15 20 Other Provisions 7,072 9,488 -25 Lower than expected credit costs Profit before Tax 29,208 28,392 3 Tax Provisions 10,051 9,511 6

    Net Profit 19,156 18,881 1 Lower trading gains offset by strong opex control and lower provisions % Change (YoY) 19 17

    Source: Company, MOSL

    Lumpy exposure mars asset quality performance In 2QFY16, gross slippages were INR5.8b (1% of loans) v/s INR11.9b (2.1%) in

    1QFY16. However, adjusted for INR18.2b sale to ARC, slippages were ~INR24b (4% of loans).

    Fresh restructuring done in 2Q was INR4.63b led by shift in DCCO; Relapse from restructured loans stood at INR900m v/s INR4.7b in 1QFY16.

    O/s standard restructured loan (net of provisions) stood at INR84.3b, i.e. 2.65% of customer assets v/s 2.8% in 1Q.

    AXSB wrote-off INR2b loans v/s INR9.3b a quarter ago. This does not include write off due to sale to ARC. Including that write offs during the quarter were INR5.45b

    Upgrades and recoveries were at INR1.8b (INR1.2b in 1Q). Resultantly, GNPA in absolute terms increased 5% QoQ and in percentage terms stood at 1.4% of customer assets (stable QoQ). Both PCR and NNPA were stable QoQ at 78% and 0.5% of customer assets respectively.

    Management continues to maintain its full year gross stress addition guidance of < INR57b excluding asset sales to ARCs and any 5:25 refinancing transactions.

    Fees growth moderates – Corporate fee growth remains weak Fee income growth remains moderate at 14% YoY v/s 13% YoY in 1Q. This is

    mainly driven by corporate fees (2% YoY v/s 8% YoY) and retail fees (20% YoY, similar to 1Q however lower than past trajectory of 25%+ growth).

    Fee income growth in Agri/SME segments was -5% YoY v/s +13% YoY in 1QFY16. Business banking grew by 17% QoQ (171% YoY). Strong loan growth driven by retail and corporate segments Retail loans grew 27% YoY (+4% QoQ) and forms 40% of the loan book. Within

    retail segment, strong growth was witnessed across the board – all segments growing 4% QoQ; personal loans (+41% YoY; +4% QoQ) and LAP (+4% QoQ; +27% YoY).

    Housing portfolio increased 15% YoY, while Agri segment 27% YoY. Auto loans grew +13% YoY.

    Corporate book grew 24% YoY (+6% QoQ) led by strong growth in metals and infra segment (~10% QoQ); however, ~80% of incremental growth in A and

    1HFY16 stress additions at INR29.7b; FY16 guidance

  • 27 October 2015 3

    Axis Bank

    above rated corporate. SME advances (including non-retail agriculture segment) grew by 11% YoY (4% QoQ).

    Conference call highlights

    Guidance on FY16 (a) Credit growth – 20%, (b) Branch addition – 250-300 (v/s 200 guided in 1Q)

    and 10-12% YoY growth thereafter, (c) NIMs to above 3.5% in FY16, (d) Fees expected to be in mid-teens, (e) Credit cost to be 90bp (v/s 80-90bp previously) excluding contingent provision, (f) C/I around 40% and 38% in medium term, (g) Stress loan formation is likely to be lower than FY15 (INR57b) excluding the sale to ARC

    BS Related System credit and deposit growth lower than expected; expect 11% system

    credit growth for FY16 Incremental corporate loan growth driven by refinances and higher demand of

    non-rupee denominated financing; ~80% of new sanction to A and above rated corporate

    Share of government savings balance is less than 15% P&L Related Provisions: INR3.36b loss on sale to ARC, INR150m on account of un-hedged FX

    exposure and INR730m on depreciation of investments Retail fee growth was driven by strong growth in retail asset fees grew by

    32%YoY, retail liability fees increased to INR1.66b and third party fees grew by 6% YoY (INR2.b)

    Overseas margin stood at 1.6% and domestic margins stood at 4.11% Asset Quality Iron and steel exposure currently stands at 3.8%; ~65% exposure is to A and

    above rated corporate; during the quarter, increase in exposure was to large integrated players

    During the quarter, AXSB sold two accounts to ARC: gross book value INR18.2b for sales consideration of INR6.5b (INR5.5b in security receipts and INR1b in cash); loss on sale has been fully amortized via INR3.36b provisioning charge on P&L and balance through contingency provision (INR8.5b)

    Two accounts in the power sector have been rescheduled under 5:25 scheme amounting to INR15b

    Outstanding contingency provisions stood at INR4b Stock of SRs outstanding INR5.5b Fresh restructuring done in 2Q was INR4.63b led by shift in DCCO; Relapse from

    restructured loans was INR900m; INR5b were upgrade in restructured loans No sector accounts for more than 18% of outstanding restructured loans Other highlights Tier 1 improvement 20bp (25bp in CAR)

  • 27 October 2015 4

    Axis Bank

    40% of incremental loans through branches and existing customer accounted for 2/3rd of incremental growth

    ~82% of domestic loans linked to base rate International loans account for ~16% of overall loans Consolidated profits stood at INR39.2b for 1HFY16 Regulatory retail loans stood at 45% PoS machine network stood at 250,000 Valuation and view Asset quality performance during the quarter surprised negatively led by lumpy

    exposure. However, levers build with the one off gains helped to overcome the problem without much hit on earnings.

    With the cut in Base Rate (~70% of loans linked), higher incremental growth in the relatively lower yielding loans and moderate CASA growth will keep margins under pressure. We factor in 15bp drop in NIMs in 2HFY16 v/s 1HFY16. Better than expected cost of funds (surprised us positively in 2Q) can negate the impact. Led by refinancing and continued healthy retail growth overall loan growth is expected to be 2x of the industry. Overall we expect NII CAGR of 15% over FY15-18E v/s loan CAGR of 21%

    The bank is geared up to ride the next growth cycle with (1) strong capitalization (12.4% Tier I, including lower RWA benefit from recent guideline changes), healthy ROA (1.7%) and expanding liability franchise (2,743 branches – 15%+ CAGR over FY12-15). Leveraging on the strong distribution network AXSB increased the share of non-wholesale deposits to ~80% as compared 59% in FY11 and retail loans now form 40% of loans (v/s 19% in FY11). Increased share of retail loans and strong SME business would help reduce revenue volatility.

    We expect PAT CAGR of ~17% over FY15/18. Stock trades at FY17 PE and PBV of 13x/2.1x. Reiterate Buy with Residual income growth based target price of INR650 (2.6x FY17 BV). Key assumptions are a) Risk Free rate of 7.5% b) Beta of 1.3x c) Risk Premium of 5% d) average growth of 15% over FY15-35E and e) Terminal growth rate of 5%.

    Risk to our earnings estimate – a. Trade-off between loan growth and margins putting pressure on core revenues, b. any large lumpy slippage (similar to 2Q) and c. higher than expected opex growth (our est. for FY16, 10% YoY v/s 7% YoY in 1HFY16).

    Exhibit 2: One year forward P/BV

    Source: Company, MOSL

    Exhibit 3: One year forward P/E

    Source: Company, MOSL

    2.2

    4.0

    2.1

    0.9 0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    Oct

    -05

    Jan-

    07

    Apr-

    08

    Jul-0

    9

    Oct

    -10

    Jan-

    12

    Apr-

    13

    Jul-1

    4

    Oct

    -15

    PB (x) Peak(x) Avg(x) Min(x)

    13.0

    23.6

    12.7 5.7

    3

    12

    21

    30

    Oct

    -05

    Jan-

    07

    Apr-

    08

    Jul-0

    9

    Oct

    -10

    Jan-

    12

    Apr-

    13

    Jul-1

    4

    Oct

    -15

    PE (x) Peak(x) Avg(x) Min(x)

    Reiterate Buy with a target price of INR650 (2.6x FY17

    BV)

  • 27 October 2015 5

    Axis Bank

    Exhibit 4: We cut earnings estimate by 3-4% led by lower than anticipated growth in other income INR b Old Estimates Revised Estimates Change (%) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY16 FY17 FY18 Net Interest Income 162.4 185.0 213.8 164.6 188.5 218.5 1.3 1.9 2.2 Other Income 110.1 125.3 146.8 96.5 116.0 136.2 -12.4 -7.4 -7.2 Total Income 272.5 310.3 360.6 261.0 304.5 354.7 -4.2 -1.9 -1.6 Operating Expenses 106.2 122.4 141.2 101.2 118.8 139.4 -4.6 -3.0 -1.3 Operating Profits 166.4 187.9 219.4 159.8 185.7 215.4 -4.0 -1.1 -1.8 Provisions 36.1 33.5 38.9 33.1 35.4 38.9 -8.5 5.6 0.0 PBT 130.3 154.3 180.5 126.8 150.3 176.5 -2.7 -2.6 -2.2 Tax 43.6 51.7 59.6 42.5 51.1 60.0 -2.7 -1.1 0.7 PAT 86.6 102.6 120.9 84.3 99.2 116.5 -2.7 -3.3 -3.7 Margins (%) 3.57 3.51 3.37 3.62 3.57 3.44 Credit Cost (%) 1.06 0.86 0.85 0.98 0.91 0.85 RoA (%) 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 RoE (%) 18.0 18.3 18.5 17.5 17.8 18.0

    Source: MOSL, Company

    Exhibit 5: DuPont Analysis: Return Ratios to remain healthy despite conservative assumptions on margins and credit cost Y/E MARCH FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Net Interest Income 2.83 2.87 3.05 3.10 3.04 3.09 3.30 3.37 3.31 3.22 3.12 Fee income 1.64 1.90 1.78 1.79 1.79 1.76 1.65 1.60 1.58 1.59 1.58

    Fee to core Income 36.6 39.9 36.9 36.6 37.1 36.4 33.4 32.3 32.3 33.1 33.6 Core Income 4.46 4.77 4.83 4.89 4.82 4.85 4.96 4.97 4.89 4.81 4.69 Operating Expenses 2.36 2.22 2.26 2.26 2.27 2.21 2.18 2.18 2.04 2.03 1.99

    Cost to Core Income 52.8 46.6 46.8 46.2 47.1 45.5 44.0 43.8 41.6 42.2 42.4 Employee cost 0.73 0.78 0.76 0.76 0.79 0.76 0.72 0.74 0.69 0.68 0.66 Employee to total exp. 31.1 34.9 33.9 33.8 34.6 34.4 32.9 33.8 33.8 33.5 33.1 Others 1.62 1.45 1.49 1.50 1.49 1.45 1.46 1.44 1.35 1.35 1.33 Core Operating Profit 2.11 2.55 2.57 2.63 2.55 2.64 2.77 2.79 2.85 2.78 2.71 Trading and others 0.33 0.35 0.62 0.40 0.26 0.33 0.39 0.38 0.36 0.39 0.37 Operating Profit 2.43 2.90 3.19 3.03 2.81 2.97 3.17 3.17 3.21 3.17 3.07 Provisions 0.63 0.73 0.85 0.60 0.43 0.56 0.58 0.55 0.66 0.61 0.55

    NPA 0.54 0.70 0.86 0.54 0.42 0.47 0.49 0.50 0.61 0.58 0.55 Others 0.09 0.03 -0.01 0.07 0.02 0.09 0.09 0.05 0.06 0.03 0.00

    PBT 1.80 2.16 2.35 2.43 2.38 2.41 2.58 2.62 2.55 2.57 2.52 Tax 0.63 0.75 0.81 0.83 0.77 0.76 0.87 0.88 0.85 0.87 0.86

    Tax Rate 34.9 34.8 34.7 34.0 32.5 31.4 33.5 33.5 33.5 34.0 34.0 RoA 1.17 1.41 1.53 1.60 1.61 1.65 1.72 1.74 1.69 1.70 1.66

    Leverage (x) 15.0 13.6 12.5 12.1 12.6 11.2 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.9 RoE 17.6 19.1 19.2 19.3 20.3 18.5 17.4 17.8 17.5 17.8 18.0

    Source: Company, MOSL

  • 27 October 2015 6

    Axis Bank

    Exhibit 6: Quarterly DuPont Analysis: Healthy core operating income performance (%) 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 Net Interest Income 3.14 3.21 3.23 3.40 3.43 3.36 3.41 3.47 3.64 3.52 3.44 3.55 3.51 Fee based income 1.81 1.81 1.96 1.56 1.67 1.64 1.92 1.45 1.64 1.65 1.92 1.36 1.57

    Fee to Core Income 36.6 36.0 37.8 31.5 32.8 32.8 36.0 29.4 31.1 32.0 35.9 27.7 30.9 Core Income 4.96 5.02 5.20 4.96 5.10 5.00 5.33 4.92 5.29 5.17 5.37 4.91 5.08 Operating Expenses 2.35 2.25 2.27 2.14 2.28 2.27 2.30 2.21 2.39 2.27 2.24 1.98 2.14

    Cost to Core Income 47.5 44.8 43.7 43.1 44.7 45.3 43.1 44.9 45.2 43.9 41.8 40.4 42.1 Employee expenses 0.78 0.79 0.73 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.71 0.79 0.81 0.76 0.72 0.71 0.72 Other 1.57 1.46 1.54 1.38 1.53 1.53 1.59 1.42 1.57 1.51 1.52 1.27 1.42

    Core Operating Profits 2.61 2.77 2.92 2.82 2.82 2.73 3.03 2.71 2.90 2.90 3.13 2.93 2.94 Trading and others 0.34 0.27 0.47 0.55 0.39 0.21 0.47 0.33 0.37 0.35 0.51 0.65 0.20 Operating Profits 2.94 3.04 3.40 3.37 3.21 2.94 3.50 3.04 3.27 3.25 3.64 3.58 3.14 Provisions 0.69 0.50 0.72 0.84 0.80 0.23 0.54 0.41 0.75 0.50 0.64 0.98 0.61

    NPA 0.63 0.52 0.34 0.71 0.57 0.42 0.35 0.42 0.72 0.55 0.45 0.76 0.55 Others 0.06 -0.02 0.38 0.14 0.23 -0.19 0.19 -0.02 0.03 -0.05 0.19 0.22 0.06

    PBT 2.25 2.54 2.67 2.53 2.41 2.72 2.95 2.63 2.52 2.75 2.99 2.60 2.53 Taxes 0.74 0.81 0.79 0.86 0.82 0.91 0.97 0.88 0.85 0.89 1.02 0.87 0.87

    Tax Rate 32.7 31.8 29.5 33.9 33.9 33.5 32.8 33.6 33.9 32.3 34.0 33.4 34.4 ROA 1.52 1.73 1.89 1.67 1.59 1.81 1.98 1.75 1.66 1.86 1.98 1.73 1.66

    Leverage (x) 12.0 11.9 11.0 9.9 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.5 10.0 10.0 9.7 ROE 18.2 20.6 20.7 16.6 15.3 17.4 19.4 17.0 15.8 17.8 19.7 17.3 16.0

    Source: Company, MOSL

  • 27 October 2015 7

    Axis Bank

    Story in charts

    Exhibit 7: Reported NIM improves 4bp QoQ

    Source: Company, MOSL

    Exhibit 8: Cost of funds declined 13bp QoQ, 20bp YoY (%)

    Source: Company, MOSL

    Exhibit 9: Loan growth remains healthy at 23%YoY

    Source: Company, MOSL

    Exhibit 10: Improvement in liability mix since FY12 (%)

    Source: Company, MOSL

    Exhibit 11: Core fee income growth remains moderate at 14% YoY (+13% YoY in 1QFY16)

    Source: Company, MOSL

    Exhibit 12: Strong control over cost despite focus on retail

    Source: Company, MOSL

    3.3

    3.8 3.8 3.6

    3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7

    3.9 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9

    1QFY

    122Q

    FY12

    3QFY

    124Q

    FY12

    1QFY

    132Q

    FY13

    3QFY

    134Q

    FY13

    1QFY

    142Q

    FY14

    3QFY

    144Q

    FY14

    1QFY

    152Q

    FY15

    3QFY

    154Q

    FY15

    1QFY

    162Q

    FY16

    NIMs (%)

    6.13

    6.

    19

    6.34

    6.

    45

    6.70

    6.

    54

    6.52

    6.

    45

    6.26

    6.

    25

    6.29

    6.

    20

    6.21

    6.

    19

    6.17

    6.

    26

    6.12

    5.

    99

    1QFY

    122Q

    FY12

    3QFY

    124Q

    FY12

    1QFY

    132Q

    FY13

    3QFY

    134Q

    FY13

    1QFY

    142Q

    FY14

    3QFY

    144Q

    FY14

    1QFY

    152Q

    FY15

    3QFY

    154Q

    FY15

    1QFY

    162Q

    FY16

    1,31

    9 1,

    401

    1,48

    7 1,

    698

    1,71

    1 1,

    721

    1,79

    5 1,

    970

    1,98

    2 2,

    013

    2,11

    5 2,

    301

    2,30

    5 2,

    422

    2,60

    6 2,

    811

    2,84

    6 2,

    981

    21 27 20 19 30 23 21 16 16 17 18 17 16 20

    23 22 23 23

    1QFY

    121H

    FY12

    9MFY

    12FY

    121Q

    FY13

    1HFY

    139M

    FY13

    FY13

    1QFY

    141H

    FY14

    9MFY

    14FY

    141Q

    FY15

    1HFY

    159M

    FY15

    FY15

    1QFY

    161H

    FY16

    Loans (INR b) YoY Growth (%)

    10

    19

    28

    37

    461Q

    FY12

    1HFY

    129M

    FY12

    FY12

    1QFY

    131H

    FY13

    9MFY

    13FY

    131Q

    FY14

    1HFY

    149M

    FY14

    FY14

    1QFY

    151H

    FY15

    9MFY

    15FY

    151Q

    FY16

    1HFY

    16

    Bulk Dep. Proportion Average Daily CASA Ratio

    10.6

    11

    .2

    12.3

    13

    .4

    11.6

    13

    .4

    14.1

    16

    .2

    13.2

    14

    .3

    14.6

    17

    .8

    13.8

    15

    .9

    16.9

    21

    .2

    15.5

    18

    .1

    1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.0

    1.6 1.7 1.6 1.9

    1.4 1.6 1.7

    1.9

    1.4 1.6

    1QFY

    122Q

    FY12

    3QFY

    124Q

    FY12

    1QFY

    132Q

    FY13

    3QFY

    134Q

    FY13

    1QFY

    142Q

    FY14

    3QFY

    144Q

    FY14

    1QFY

    152Q

    FY15

    3QFY

    154Q

    FY15

    1QFY

    162Q

    FY16

    Fee Income (INR m) Fee as % of avg assets

    2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.1

    48.0

    46.8

    44

    .9 48

    .6

    46.5

    47.5

    44

    .8

    43.7

    43

    .1

    44.7

    45

    .3

    43.1

    44.9

    45

    .2

    43.9

    41

    .8

    40.4

    42.1

    1QFY

    122Q

    FY12

    3QFY

    124Q

    FY12

    1QFY

    132Q

    FY13

    3QFY

    134Q

    FY13

    1QFY

    142Q

    FY14

    3QFY

    144Q

    FY14

    1QFY

    152Q

    FY15

    3QFY

    154Q

    FY15

    1QFY

    162Q

    FY16

    Cost to avg assets Cost to C/Income

  • 27 October 2015 8

    Axis Bank

    Story in charts

    Exhibit 13: Reported slippages decline QoQ; however, adjusted for sale to ARC, slippages more than doubled QoQ

    Source: Company, MOSL

    Exhibit 14: GNPA up 5% QoQ; PCR remains stable

    Source: Company, MOSL

    Exhibit 15: Fresh restructuring in 2Q was INR4.6b led by shift in DCCO; relapse from restructured loans was INR900m

    Source: Company, MOSL

    Exhibit 16: Adjusted for ~INR18b sale to ARC, gross stress additions remains elevated

    Source: Company, MOSL

    Exhibit 17: FY16 credit cost guidance of 90bp v/s 80-90bp previously

    Source: Company, MOSL

    Exhibit 18: Added 154 branches during the quarter

    Source: Company, MOSL

    3.0

    5.0

    5.4

    5.1

    4.6

    6.3

    5.4

    4.0

    6.8

    6.2

    5.9

    3.0

    6.3

    9.1

    7.1

    6.1

    11.9

    5.

    8

    1.1

    1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.8

    1.5

    0.9

    1.6 1.4 1.3

    0.6

    1.3

    1.8

    1.3 1.1

    2.1

    1.0

    1QFY

    122Q

    FY12

    3QFY

    124Q

    FY12

    1QFY

    132Q

    FY13

    3QFY

    134Q

    FY13

    1QFY

    142Q

    FY14

    3QFY

    144Q

    FY14

    1QFY

    152Q

    FY15

    3QFY

    154Q

    FY15

    1QFY

    162Q

    FY16

    Slippages (INR b) Slippage Ratio (%)

    1.1

    1.1

    1.1

    0.9 1.

    1 1.1

    1.

    1 1.

    1 1.

    1 1.2 1.3

    1.2 1.3

    1.3

    1.3

    1.3

    1.4

    1.4

    0.3

    0.3

    0.4

    0.3

    0.3

    0.3

    0.3

    0.3

    0.4

    0.4

    0.4

    0.4

    0.4

    0.4

    0.4

    0.4

    0.5

    0.5

    1QFY

    121H

    FY12

    9MFY

    12FY

    121Q

    FY13

    1HFY

    139M

    FY13

    FY13

    1QFY

    141H

    FY14

    9MFY

    14FY

    141Q

    FY15

    1HFY

    159M

    FY15

    FY15

    1QFY

    161H

    FY16

    Gross NPA (%) Net NPA (%)

    21.5

    24

    .1

    27.0

    30

    .6

    38.3

    40

    .7

    42.6

    43

    .7

    42.1

    48

    .1

    55.0

    60

    .8

    62.9

    66

    .9

    68.1

    81

    .7

    85.2

    84

    .3

    1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9

    2.1 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4

    2.7 2.8 2.7

    1QFY

    121H

    FY12

    9MFY

    12FY

    121Q

    FY13

    1HFY

    139M

    FY13

    FY13

    1QFY

    141H

    FY14

    9MFY

    14FY

    141Q

    FY15

    1HFY

    159M

    FY15

    FY15

    1QFY

    161H

    FY16

    Restructured Portfolio (INR b)Rest Port as a % of customer assets

    4.0

    8.1

    8.3

    11.0

    10

    .8

    9.5

    9.1

    11.9

    13

    .7

    16.5

    12

    .6

    14.2

    11

    .1

    14.8

    8.

    4 21

    .5

    19.3

    10

    .5

    1.5

    2.9 2.7 3.1 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.8

    3.2 3.8

    2.8 2.9 2.2

    2.9

    1.6

    3.7 3.3

    1.7

    1QFY

    122Q

    FY12

    3QFY

    124Q

    FY12

    1QFY

    132Q

    FY13

    3QFY

    134Q

    FY13

    1QFY

    142Q

    FY14

    3QFY

    144Q

    FY14

    1QFY

    152Q

    FY15

    3QFY

    154Q

    FY15

    1QFY

    162Q

    FY16

    Gross Stress Addition (INR b)As a % of Loans (annualized)

    45

    73

    93

    32

    61

    95

    74

    31

    116

    57

    57

    26

    58

    107

    59

    55

    117

    85

    1QFY

    122Q

    FY12

    3QFY

    124Q

    FY12

    1QFY

    132Q

    FY13

    3QFY

    134Q

    FY13

    1QFY

    142Q

    FY14

    3QFY

    144Q

    FY14

    1QFY

    152Q

    FY15

    3QFY

    154Q

    FY15

    1QFY

    162Q

    FY16

    Credit cost (bp)

    1,41

    1 1,

    446

    1,49

    3 1,

    622

    1,68

    1 1,

    741

    1,78

    7 1,

    947

    2,02

    1 2,

    225

    2,32

    1 2,

    402

    2,42

    1 2,

    505

    2,55

    8 2,

    589

    2,58

    9 2,

    743

    1QFY

    121H

    FY12

    9MFY

    12FY

    121Q

    FY13

    1HFY

    139M

    FY13

    FY13

    1QFY

    141H

    FY14

    9MFY

    14FY

    141Q

    FY15

    1HFY

    159M

    FY15

    FY15

    1QFY

    161H

    FY16

  • 27 October 2015 9

    Axis Bank

    Exhibit 19: Quarterly Snapshot FY14 FY15 FY16 Variation (%) INR m 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q QoQ YoY Profit and Loss Net Interest Income 28,652 29,367 29,840 31,658 33,105 35,249 35,896 37,992 40,562 40,621 0 15 Other Income 17,813 17,661 16,444 22,134 16,911 19,476 20,391 26,873 22,983 20,414 -11 5

    Trading profits 4,399 49 347 2,170 2,603 2,708 3,290 2,749 6,465 1,675 -74 -38 Fee Income 13,170 14,320 14,560 17,800 13,780 15,910 16,860 21,240 15,508 18,130 17 14 Miscellaneous Income 245 3,292 1,538 2,164 527 859 241 2,885 1,010 609 -40 -29

    Total Income 46,465 47,028 46,284 53,792 50,015 54,725 56,286 64,866 63,545 61,035 -4 12 Operating Expenses 18,030 19,530 20,134 21,314 21,059 23,102 23,140 24,737 22,624 24,755 9 7

    Employee 6,431 6,439 6,551 6,593 7,518 7,860 7,785 7,988 8,093 8,293 2 6 Others 11,599 13,090 13,583 14,722 13,541 15,242 15,356 16,749 14,532 16,462 13 8

    Operating Profits 28,436 27,498 26,150 32,477 28,957 31,623 33,146 40,129 40,921 36,280 -11 15 Provisions 7,123 6,875 2,025 5,052 3,866 7,250 5,072 7,098 11,218 7,072 -37 -2 PBT 21,313 20,623 24,125 27,425 25,091 24,373 28,075 33,031 29,703 29,208 -2 20 Taxes 7,224 7,000 8,084 9,002 8,423 8,266 9,077 11,225 9,919 10,051 1 22 PAT 14,089 13,623 16,041 18,423 16,668 16,107 18,998 21,806 19,784 19,156 -3 19 Asset Quality GNPA 24,897 27,345 30,082 31,464 34,633 36,131 39,016 41,102 42,512 44,511 5 23 NNPA 7,897 8,383 10,034 10,246 11,135 11,798 12,507 13,167 14,613 15,436 6 31 GNPA (%) 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 0 4 NNPA (%) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0 4 PCR (Calculated, %) 68 69 67 67 68 67 68 68 66 65 -31 -203 PCR (Reported, %) 80 80 78 78 77 78 78 78 78 78 0 0 Slippages 6,810 6,180 5,890 3,010 6,260 9,110 7,080 6,100 11,860 5,830 -51 -36

    Slippage Ratio 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.6 1.3 1.8 1.3 1.1 2.1 1.0 -109.5 -84.7 Prov. for NPA in qtr 5,720 2,870 2,920 1,440 3,350 6,320 3,690 3,710 8,240 6,190 -25 -2

    Credit Cost 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.5 1.2 0.8 -31.5 -22.0 Restructured loans 42,110 48,070 55,000 60,790 62,890 66,900 68,080 81,660 85,150 84,260 -1 26

    % of Loans 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.8 -16 6 Ratios (%) Fees to Total Income 28.3 30.5 31.5 33.1 27.6 29.1 30.0 32.7 24.4 29.7 Cost to Core Income 43.1 44.7 45.3 43.1 44.9 45.2 43.9 41.8 40.4 42.1 Tax Rate 33.9 33.9 33.5 32.8 33.6 33.9 32.3 34.0 33.4 34.4 Loan/Deposit 83.1 78.8 80.6 81.9 84.8 85.4 89.5 87.2 92.5 92.0 Margins - Cal (%) Yield on loans 10.5 10.8 10.8 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.3 10.4 10.0 10.1 8 -50 Yield On Investments 7.4 7.7 7.3 7.4 7.0 7.8 8.1 7.9 8.2 7.9 -34 10 Yield on Funds 9.3 9.6 9.5 9.3 9.4 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.5 9.6 8 -16 Cost of funds 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.2 5.9 5.9 -3 -18 Margins 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.9 3 -8 Margins - Reported (%) Cost of Funds 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.1 6.0 -13 -20 Margins 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4 -12 Franchise Branches 2,021 2,225 2,321 2,402 2,421 2,505 2,558 2,589 2,589 2,743 ATM 11,488 11,796 12,328 12,922 12,930 13,146 12,874 12,355 12,179 12,352

    Source: Company, MOSL

  • 27 October 2015 10

    Axis Bank

    Exhibit 20: Quarterly Snapshot (continued) FY14 FY15 FY16 Variation (%) INR b 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q QoQ YoY Balance Sheet Loans 1,982 2,013 2,115 2,301 2,305 2,422 2,606 2,811 2,846 2,981 5 23 Investments 1,033 1,184 1,122 1,135 1,079 1,031 1,224 1,323 1,079 1,137 5 10 Customer Assets 2,256 2,266 2,389 2,562 2,553 2,659 2,887 3,115 3,094 3,242 5 22 Deposits 2,384 2,554 2,624 2,809 2,720 2,837 2,912 3,224 3,078 3,241 5 14 Borrowings 498 479 484 503 543 557 730 798 809 844 4 51 Total Assets 3,341 3,514 3,594 3,832 3,794 3,950 4,211 4,619 4,525 4,727 4 20 Deposits Break Up Retail Deposits 1,283 1,344 1,518 1,620 1,680 1,772 1,819 1,949 1,948 2,049 5 16 % of total Deposits 54 53 58 58 62 62 62 60 63 63 Other Deposits 1,101 1,210 1,106 1,189 1,040 1,065 1,093 1,276 1,130 1,192 6 12 % of total Deposits 46 47 42 42 38 38 38 40 37 37 Deposits Break Up CASA Deposits 1,011 1,095 1,117 1,265 1,152 1,264 1,256 1,444 1,316 1,434 9 13 % of total Deposits 42 43 43 45 42 45 43 45 43 44 Savings 633 665 696 778 746 799 800 883 848 897 6 12 % of total Deposits 27 26 27 28 27 28 27 27 28 28 Current 378 430 421 487 407 465 456 561 468 537 15 15 % of total Deposits 16 17 16 17 15 16 16 17 15 17 Term Deposits 1,373 1,459 1,507 1,545 1,568 1,574 1,656 1,780 1,762 1,807 3 15 % of total Deposits 58 57 57 55 58 55 57 55 57 56 Ratings Profile Large and Mid Corp AAA 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 11 12 AA 14 15 14 15 16 15 15 20 18 18 A 37 36 37 35 33 35 34 32 31 31 BBB 31 32 31 30 31 30 31 29 29 28

  • 27 October 2015 11

    Axis Bank

    Exhibit 21: Financials: Valuation metrics 66 Rating CMP Mcap EPS (INR) P/E (x) BV (INR) P/BV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)

    (INR) (USDb) FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 ICICIBC* Buy 285 25.1 21.5 25.8 10.3 8.2 131 150 1.68 1.41 1.54 1.58 14.8 15.7 HDFCB Buy 1,101 41.8 49.1 59.3 22.4 18.6 285 331 3.86 3.33 1.88 1.86 18.4 19.3 AXSB Buy 521 18.7 36.5 43.3 14.3 12.0 218 254 2.39 2.05 1.78 1.82 18.0 18.3 KMB* Neutral 662 18.3 18.2 25.3 36.4 26.2 182 207 3.63 3.20 1.01 1.32 13.9 14.5 YES Buy 746 4.7 59.9 74.5 12.5 10.0 327 387 2.28 1.93 1.68 1.73 19.7 20.9 IIB Buy 958 8.6 41.3 51.3 23.2 18.7 295 340 3.24 2.82 2.04 2.08 17.6 16.1 DCBB Sell 90 0.4 5.4 5.8 16.8 15.5 60 66 1.49 1.36 0.84 0.73 9.3 9.2 FB Neutral 57 1.5 4.4 5.6 12.9 10.3 49 53 1.18 1.08 0.86 0.95 9.5 11.0 JKBK Neutral 89 0.7 14.1 17.3 6.3 5.1 136 150 0.65 0.60 0.85 0.92 10.7 12.1 SIB Buy 22 0.4 2.5 3.1 8.5 7.1 29 31 0.76 0.70 0.55 0.58 9.4 10.3 Private Aggregate 120.1 18.3 15.2 2.75 2.41 SBIN (cons)* Buy 251 28.8 25.6 31.7 9.4 7.5 229 255 1.05 0.93 0.70 0.77 11.7 13.1 PNB Buy 134 3.8 19.6 26.8 6.8 5.0 220 244 0.61 0.55 0.57 0.70 9.3 11.6 BOI Neutral 137 1.4 19.4 27.1 7.1 5.1 410 432 0.33 0.32 0.20 0.25 4.8 6.4 BOB Buy 172 1.2 20.3 25.1 8.5 6.9 182 201 0.95 0.86 0.61 0.68 11.7 13.1 CBK Buy 292 2.3 43.8 59.7 6.7 4.9 573 619 0.51 0.47 0.39 0.48 8.1 10.0 UNBK Buy 165 1.6 35.7 46.6 4.6 3.5 317 356 0.52 0.46 0.56 0.65 11.8 13.9 OBC Buy 138 0.6 46.3 63.8 3.0 2.2 474 523 0.29 0.26 0.57 0.69 10.1 12.8 INBK Buy 134 1.0 21.1 30.6 6.3 4.4 278 301 0.48 0.44 0.50 0.65 7.8 10.6 CRPBK Neutral 45 0.1 16.5 21.9 2.7 2.0 141 158 0.32 0.28 0.54 0.64 12.3 14.7 ANDB Buy 66 0.6 17.8 22.8 3.7 2.9 180 196 0.37 0.34 0.55 0.62 10.3 12.2 IDBI Neutral 85 2.1 14.4 19.7 5.9 4.3 157 173 0.54 0.49 0.58 0.69 9.5 11.9 DBNK Neutral 43 0.4 8.8 12.5 4.8 3.4 126 136 0.34 0.31 0.36 0.44 7.2 9.6 Public Aggregate 43.7 7.8 6.0 0.71 0.65 HDFC* Buy 1,313 31.3 38 44 22.8 18.0 167 192 5.21 4.11 2.60 2.60 23.6 24.4 LICHF Buy 488 3.7 34 42 14.4 11.5 182 216 2.68 2.25 1.48 1.55 20.1 21.3 DEWH Buy 232 1.0 26 33 8.8 7.0 179 204 1.30 1.14 1.27 1.29 15.6 17.2 IHFL Buy 745 4.8 56 72 13.4 10.4 275 304 2.71 2.45 3.91 4.07 25.9 24.8 GRHF Buy 257 1.4 7 9 37.9 30.0 24 28 10.88 9.03 2.18 2.05 28.9 28.6 REPCO Buy 697 0.7 24 34 28.5 20.4 152 182 4.59 3.83 2.20 2.32 17.3 20.4 IDFC Buy 60 1.4 10 12 6.2 5.2 107 116 0.29 0.26 1.75 1.83 8.8 9.8 RECL Buy 252 3.8 63 76 4.0 3.3 302 360 0.83 0.70 3.22 3.23 22.9 22.9 POWF Buy 243 4.9 54 60 4.5 4.0 285 329 0.85 0.74 3.07 3.03 20.4 19.7 SHTF Buy 944 3.2 62 73 15.1 13.0 458 515 2.06 1.83 2.10 2.28 14.1 14.9 MMFS Buy 233 2.0 12 15 19.3 15.3 109 120 2.14 1.94 1.93 2.22 11.5 13.3 BAF Buy 5,293 4.3 224 276 23.6 19.2 1,351 1,582 3.92 3.35 3.12 2.92 19.9 18.8 MUTH Buy 183 5.5 20 24 11.8 9.9 141 156 1.66 1.50 2.75 2.83 14.7 16.0 NBFC Aggregate 62.5 15.5 13.2 2.71 2.37 *Multiples adj. for value of key ventures/Investments; For ICICI Bank and HDFC Ltd BV is adjusted for investments in subsidiaries

  • 27 October 2015 12

    Axis Bank

    Financials and valuations

    Income Statement

    (INR Million) Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Interest Income 116,380 151,548 219,946 271,826 306,412 354,786 404,154 465,244 547,517 Interest Expense 66,335 85,918 139,769 175,163 186,895 212,545 239,558 276,705 329,021 Net Interest Income 50,045 65,630 80,177 96,663 119,517 142,241 164,595 188,540 218,496 Change (%) 35.8 31.1 22.2 20.6 23.6 19.0 15.7 14.5 15.9 Non-Interest Income 39,458 46,321 54,202 65,511 74,052 83,650 96,451 115,965 136,225 Net Income 89,503 111,951 134,380 162,174 193,569 225,892 261,047 304,505 354,721 Change (%) 36.0 25.1 20.0 20.7 19.4 16.7 15.6 16.6 16.5 Operating Expenses 37,097 47,794 60,071 69,142 79,008 92,037 101,241 118,779 139,365 Pre Provision Profits 52,406 64,157 74,309 93,031 114,561 133,854 159,805 185,726 215,356 Change (%) 40.7 22.4 15.8 25.2 23.1 16.8 19.4 16.2 16.0 Provisions (excl tax) 13,892 12,800 11,430 17,504 21,075 23,286 33,053 35,420 38,879 PBT 38,514 51,357 62,878 75,527 93,486 110,568 126,752 150,305 176,477 Tax 13,368 17,472 20,456 23,733 31,310 36,991 42,462 51,104 60,002 Tax Rate (%) 34.7 34.0 32.5 31.4 33.5 33.5 33.5 34.0 34.0 PAT 25,145 33,885 42,422 51,794 62,177 73,577 84,290 99,202 116,475 Change (%) 38.5 34.8 25.2 22.1 20.0 18.3 14.6 17.7 17.4 Equity Dividend (Incl tax) 5,674 6,704 7,701 9,872 11,011 13,090 14,793 17,410 20,441 Core PPP* 43,299 57,241 70,662 84,383 109,446 122,207 146,158 167,578 194,709 Change (%) 28.4 32.2 23.4 19.4 29.7 11.7 19.6 14.7 16.2 *Core PPP is (NII+Fee income-Opex)

    Balance Sheet (INR Million)

    Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Equity Share Capital 4,052 4,105 4,132 4,680 4,698 4,741 4,741 4,741 4,741 Reserves & Surplus 156,393 185,883 223,953 326,399 377,506 442,024 511,522 593,313 689,347 Net Worth 160,444 189,988 228,085 331,079 382,205 446,765 516,263 598,054 694,088 Deposits 1,413,002 1,892,378 2,201,043 2,526,136 2,809,446 3,224,419 3,788,693 4,622,205 5,639,090 Change (%) 20.4 33.9 16.3 14.8 11.2 14.8 17.5 22.0 22.0 of which CASA Dep 660,295 777,674 914,220 1,120,998 1,264,623 1,444,003 1,631,091 1,898,741 2,229,390 Change (%) 30.4 17.8 17.6 22.6 12.8 14.2 13.0 16.4 17.4 Borrowings 171,696 262,679 340,717 439,511 502,909 797,583 840,978 940,217 1,052,819 Other Liabilities & Prov. 61,336 82,089 86,433 108,881 137,889 150,557 180,725 216,998 260,384 Total Liabilities 1,806,479 2,427,134 2,856,278 3,405,607 3,832,449 4,619,324 5,326,658 6,377,474 7,646,381 Current Assets 152,064 214,087 139,339 204,350 282,387 360,990 339,356 407,016 492,804 Investments 559,748 719,916 931,921 1,137,375 1,135,484 1,323,428 1,290,343 1,483,894 1,706,478 Change (%) 20.8 28.6 29.4 22.0 -0.2 16.6 -2.5 15.0 15.0 Loans 1,043,431 1,424,078 1,697,595 1,969,660 2,300,668 2,810,830 3,372,996 4,115,056 5,020,368 Change (%) 27.9 36.5 19.2 16.0 16.8 22.2 20.0 22.0 22.0 Fixed Assets 12,225 22,731 22,593 23,556 24,102 25,143 27,168 30,193 34,218 Other Assets 39,011 46,321 64,829 70,666 89,808 98,932 296,796 341,315 392,512 Total Assets 1,806,479 2,427,134 2,856,278 3,405,607 3,832,449 4,619,324 5,326,658 6,377,474 7,646,381

    Asset Quality (%) GNPA (INR m) 13,180 15,994 18,063 23,934 31,464 41,102 48,055 53,920 67,517 NNPA (INR m) 4,190 4,104 4,726 7,041 10,246 13,167 18,066 18,979 23,318 GNPA Ratio 1.25 1.11 1.06 1.21 1.36 1.45 1.41 1.30 1.33 NNPA Ratio 0.40 0.29 0.28 0.36 0.45 0.47 0.54 0.46 0.46 PCR (Excl Tech. write off) 68.2 74.3 73.8 70.6 67.4 68.0 62.4 64.8 65.5 PCR (Incl Tech. Write off) 72.4 80.9 80.9 79.0 78.0 77.7 78.0 80.2 79.5 E: MOSL Estimates

  • 27 October 2015 13

    Axis Bank

    Financials and valuations

    Ratios Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

    Spreads Analysis (%) Avg. Yield-Earning Assets 7.8 7.8 9.0 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.6 Avg. Yield on loans 8.6 8.4 9.9 10.5 10.3 10.1 9.6 9.3 9.1 Avg. Yield on Investments 6.7 6.9 7.7 7.5 7.3 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 Avg. Cost-Int. Bear. Liab. 4.6 4.6 6.0 6.4 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.4 Avg. Cost of Deposits 4.4 4.5 6.0 6.4 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 Interest Spread 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 Net Interest Margin 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 Profitability Ratios (%) RoE 19.2 19.3 20.3 18.5 17.4 17.8 17.5 17.8 18.0 RoA 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Int. Expense/Int.Income 57.0 56.7 63.5 64.4 61.0 59.9 59.3 59.5 60.1 Fee Income/Net Income 27.3 26.1 28.2 29.1 28.5 26.5 26.0 25.8 26.3 Non Int. Inc./Net Income 44.1 41.4 40.3 40.4 38.3 37.0 36.9 38.1 38.4 Efficiency Ratios (%) Cost/Income* 45.2 44.1 44.9 44.2 41.5 42.6 40.3 40.9 41.1 Empl. Cost/Op. Exps. 33.9 33.8 34.6 34.4 32.9 33.8 33.8 33.5 33.1 Busi. per Empl. (INR m) 105.2 120.1 124.0 120.5 119.6 131.7 150.3 166.2 184.3 NP per Empl. (INR lac) 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 * ex treasury and Recoveries from written off accounts Asset-Liability Profile (%) Loans/Deposit Ratio 73.8 75.3 77.1 78.0 81.9 87.2 89.0 89.0 89.0 CASA Ratio 46.7 41.1 41.5 44.4 45.0 44.8 43.1 41.1 39.5 Investment/Deposit Ratio 39.6 38.0 42.3 45.0 40.4 41.0 34.1 32.1 30.3 G-Sec/Investment Ratio 61.1 61.3 62.7 63.5 60.9 61.4 73.4 77.9 82.6 CAR 15.8 12.7 13.7 17.0 16.1 15.1 14.7 13.9 13.3 Tier 1 11.2 9.4 9.5 12.2 12.6 12.1 12.1 11.7 11.4 Valuation Book Value (INR) 79.2 92.6 109.5 140.0 161.8 187.9 217.2 251.7 292.2 Change (%) 39.3 16.9 18.2 27.8 15.6 16.1 15.6 15.9 16.1 Price-BV (x) 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.8 Adjusted BV (INR) 77.9 91.3 108.0 138.0 158.9 184.3 212.2 246.5 285.8 Price-ABV (x) 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.8 EPS (INR) 12.4 16.5 20.5 22.1 26.5 31.0 35.6 41.8 49.1 Change (%) 22.7 33.0 24.4 7.8 19.6 17.3 14.6 17.7 17.4 Price-Earnings (x) 16.8 14.7 12.5 10.6 Dividend Per Share (INR) 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.3 7.4 Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 E: MOSL Estimates

  • 27 October 2015 14

    Axis Bank

    Corporate profile: Axis Bank

    Exhibit 23: Shareholding pattern (%) Jun-15 Mar-15 Jun-14

    Promoter 29.2 27.9 29.2

    DII 13.4 12.7 11.1

    FII 48.3 50.4 51.9

    Others 9.1 9.0 7.9 Note: FII Includes depository receipts

    Exhibit 24: Top holders

    Holder Name % Holding The Bank of New York Mellon DR 3.8 ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd 2.2 Europacific Growth Fund 2.0 Copthall Mauritius Investment Ltd 1.5 Government Pension Fund Global 1.4 Lazard Asset Management LLC A/c Lazard Emerging

    1.4

    Exhibit 25: Top management

    Name Designation

    Shikha Sharma MD & CEO

    V Srinivasan ED, Corporate Banking

    Sanjeev Kumar Gupta ED, Corporate Centre & CFO

    P Mukherjee Group Executive – Corp. Relationship Group & International Banking Rajiv Anand Group Executive - Retail Banking

    Exhibit 26: Directors Name Name

    Sanjiv Misra Ireena Vittal*

    Shikha Sharma Samir K Barua*

    Usha Sangwan Prasad R Menon*

    K N Prithviraj Srinivasan Vishvanathan*

    Som Mittal* V Srinivasan

    Rohit Bhagat* Sanjeev Kumar Gupta

    V R Kaundinya* *Independent

    Exhibit 27: Auditors

    Name Type

    S R Batliboi & Co LLP Statutory

    Exhibit 28: MOSL forecast v/s consensus EPS

    (INR) MOSL

    forecast Consensus

    forecast Variation

    (%) FY16 35.6 36.7 -3.1 FY17 41.8 44.7 -6.6 FY18 49.1 54.8 -10.4

    Company description Axis Bank (formerly known as UTI Bank) is one of the largest new generation private sector banks in India. The bank began its operations in 1994. Under the leadership of Shikha Sharma (since 2009), Managing Director & CEO of Axis Bank, the bank has grown into a one stop solution bank with established presence in Equity Broking and Asset Management businesses as well. As on September 30, 2015, the bank had 2,743 branches and 12,352 ATMs spread across the country.

    Exhibit 22: Sensex rebased

    400

    475

    550

    625

    700

    Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15

    Axis Bank Sensex - Rebased

  • 27 October 2015 15

    Axis Bank

    AXIS BANK

    COMPANIES

    SECTOR UPDATES

    AXIS BANK GALLERY

    http://Institution.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Research/ICICBC-20150727-MOSL-AR-PG018.pdfhttp://Institution.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Research/SBIN-20150811-MOSL-RU-PG018.pdfhttp://Institution.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Research/FINANCIALS-20140403-MOSL-SU-PG012.pdfhttp://Institution.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Research/BANK-20150617-MOSL-SU-PG014.pdfhttp://Institution.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Research/AGIC%202015-FINANCIAL-DEEP-DIVE-MOSL-PG20.pdfhttp://institution.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Research/IIB-20150723-MOSL-CU-PG020.pdfhttp://institution.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Research/AXSB-20150725-MOSL-RU-PG014.pdfhttp://institution.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Research/AXSB-20150429-MOSL-RU-PG016.pdfhttp://institution.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Research/AXSB-20150116-MOSL-RU-PG016.pdf

  • 27 October 2015 16

    Axis Bank

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