Axford Conjecture • Reconnection takes place at a rate determined by external boundary conditions (microphysics versus macrophysics) • Examples: Dayside magnetopause reconnection Tail reconnection CME reconnection
Axford Conjecture Reconnection takes place at a rate determined by external boundary conditions (microphysics versus macrophysics) Examples: Dayside magnetopause.
Jan 15, 2016
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Axford Conjecture
• Reconnection takes place at a rate determined by external boundary conditions (microphysics versus macrophysics)
• Examples: Dayside magnetopause reconnection Tail reconnection CME reconnection
BA
-33 kV 33 kV
ISM-MHD
IMF Clock Angle 180o
Potential
Weimer-Empirical
Empirical ~ 1.1 x ISM-MHD
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Skill Scores December 98
Winglee/skillRidley/skillRaeder/skillWeimer/skill
Wiltberger/skill
pass #
GEM Metrics Grand Challenge (Hesse Compilations)
Raeder: 0.63Weimer: 0.61Ridley: 0.50
A Particularly Good Case
models appear to match smoothed vy (100s) best
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
72200 72400 72600 72800 73000 73200 73400
DMSP data-model comparisona1398344.195
vDMSPRidleyRaederWeimer
time
Hones substorm model
Forbes CME model
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