AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs www.avoid.uk.net Avoiding dangerous climate change Dr Jason Lowe (Met Office) Dr Rachel Warren (Tyndall Centre) Dr Simon Buckle (Grantham Institute)
AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Avoiding dangerous.
Mar 26, 2015
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AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
www.avoid.uk.net
Avoiding dangerous climate change
Dr Jason Lowe (Met Office)Dr Rachel Warren (Tyndall Centre)Dr Simon Buckle (Grantham Institute)
Jolene Cook
Just a suggested title.
WATER water resources coastal flood river flood
FOOD crop suitability crop productivity
ENVIRONMENTsoil carbon, ecosystem productivity biodiversity HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE heat effects heating/cooling needs
Sectors and impacts indicators
Jolene Cook
Replace with pictures to illustrate sectors investigated.Remove text in bottom half of the box but cover in talk instead.
Key findings
• Strong mitigation action to limit temperature rise to below 2°C avoids many of the climate impacts.
• …but not all the impacts are avoided. Some adaptation may still be needed
• The earlier action is taken to reduce emissions then the more of the 21st century impacts are avoided.
Jolene Cook
Should the final point be listed as a key finding here? Maybe better to talk about instead.
AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Strong action to limit to below 2°C avoid a large amount of the climate impacts that would otherwise accrue by the 2080s…
% of impacts avoided
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Incr
ease
dw
ater
scar
city
Flu
vial
floo
dris
k
Coa
stal
floo
dris
k
Coa
stal
man
grov
e
Dec
reas
edcr
opsu
itabi
lity
Soy
bean
prod
uctiv
ity
Coo
ling
requ
irem
ents
% o
f im
pa
cts
av
oid
ed
2016-5-L
Jolene Cook
Plot to be simplified to have just one bar for each impact (purple).Remove boxes around plot and legend (will make it look like there's more space).Title on plot?
% of impacts avoided
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Incr
ease
dw
ater
scar
city
Flu
vial
floo
dris
k
Coa
stal
floo
dris
k
Coa
stal
man
grov
e
Dec
reas
edcr
opsu
itabi
lity
Soy
bean
prod
uctiv
ity
Coo
ling
requ
irem
ents
% o
f im
pa
cts
av
oid
ed
2016-5-L
Strong action to limit to below 2°C avoid a large amount of the climate impacts that would otherwise accrue by the 2080s… …… but even the most stringent mitigation will not avoid all impacts
Jolene Cook
Plot to be simplified to have just one bar for each impact (purple).Remove boxes around plot and legend (will make it look like there's more space).Title on plot?
Uncertainty in impacts due to global temperature projection and spatial pattern of climate change
21st century Increase in water stress
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
1600.0
1800.0
2000.0
BAU 2°C scenario Avoided impact
Bill
ion
s o
f p
eop
le
Food security: % population at risk of hunger
-12% today, grows to 60% in 2050- 21% due to climate change; 1.1 billion people by 2100 - Early action reduces this by 27%
Jolene Cook
Should the final point be listed as a key finding here? Maybe better to talk about instead.
Key findings
• Strong mitigation action to limit temperature rise to below 2°C avoids many of the climate impacts.
• …but not all the impacts are avoided. Some adaptation may still be needed
• The earlier action is taken to reduce emissions then the more of the 21st century impacts are avoided.
Jolene Cook
Should the final point be listed as a key finding here? Maybe better to talk about instead.
AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
The earlier the peak in emissions, the greater the avoided impacts
% of impacts avoided
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80In
crea
sed
wat
ersc
arci
ty
Flu
vial
floo
dris
k
Coa
stal
floo
dris
k
Coa
stal
man
grov
e
Dec
reas
edcr
opsu
itabi
lity
Soy
bean
prod
uctiv
ity
Coo
ling
requ
irem
ents
% o
f im
pa
cts
av
oid
ed
2016-5-L 2030-5-L
Jolene Cook
Blue bars to be removed (might need to change the colour of the remaining bars though! Colours should match other plots.)Remove boxes around plot and legend (will make it look like there's more space).
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