AVIATION STATISTICS & DATA: A VITAL TOOL FOR THE … Events/Statistics_and_Forecasting... · AVIATION STATISTICS & DATA: A VITAL TOOL FOR THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS ACI Airport Statistics

AVIATION STATISTICS & DATA: A VITAL TOOL AVIATION STATISTICS & DATA: A VITAL TOOL

FOR THE DECISION MAKING PROCESSFOR THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS

AVIATION STATISTICS & DATA: A VITAL TOOL AVIATION STATISTICS & DATA: A VITAL TOOL

FOR THE DECISION MAKING PROCESSFOR THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS

ACI Airport Statistics and Forecasting Workshop

Narjess TeyssierICAO ICAO

Chief Economic Analysis & Policy SectionChief Economic Analysis & Policy Section

London, 3rd March 2011

Narjess TeyssierICAO ICAO

Chief Economic Analysis & Policy SectionChief Economic Analysis & Policy Section

London, 3rd March 2011

Why do we need Statistics?

Air travel safety rates

The environmental impact on air transport

The sustainable air transport development

ICAO Statistics ProgrammeICAO Statistics Programme

1 Monitor ICAO Strategic Objectives

2 Analyse the air transport market

3 Assess the impact of new regulations

4 Forecasting

Forecasting : basis of any effective planningForecasting : basis of any effective planning

Q Air traffic forecasting is governed by App C of A37-20 and

support all ICAO SOs

Q 2008: Review of ICAO forecasting activities in order to ensure

Better alignment with the Strategic Objectives Overall consistencies of the various forecast issued for all

Q Air traffic forecasting is governed by App C of A37-20 and

support all ICAO SOs

Q 2008: Review of ICAO forecasting activities in order to ensure

Better alignment with the Strategic Objectives Overall consistencies of the various forecast issued for all Overall consistencies of the various forecast issued for all

ICAO users

Enhancements of the quality of the forecasts in order to provide the right outputs for an evolving civil aviation industry

Q The restructuring of the ICAO forecasting activities have led to

the development of an econometric bottom-up methodology by

route groups up to the year 2030 that is able to run sensitivity

analyses on air travel demand forecasts.

Overall consistencies of the various forecast issued for all ICAO users

Enhancements of the quality of the forecasts in order to provide the right outputs for an evolving civil aviation industry

Q The restructuring of the ICAO forecasting activities have led to

the development of an econometric bottom-up methodology by

route groups up to the year 2030 that is able to run sensitivity

analyses on air travel demand forecasts.

The new ICAO forecasting methodologyThe new ICAO forecasting methodologyThe new ICAO forecasting methodologyThe new ICAO forecasting methodology

Q Before 2010, a top-down approach was used for long-term forecasts

Q New methodology: Bottom-up econometric approach starting at the

route-group level and building up to the global level

Q The econometric modelling methodology is by far the most frequently

used method for forecasting aviation demand in the air transport

industry.

Q Modelling traffic by market considering quantitative relationships such

Q Before 2010, a top-down approach was used for long-term forecasts

Q New methodology: Bottom-up econometric approach starting at the

route-group level and building up to the global level

Q The econometric modelling methodology is by far the most frequently

used method for forecasting aviation demand in the air transport

industry.

Q Modelling traffic by market considering quantitative relationships such Q Modelling traffic by market considering quantitative relationships such

as economic growth or pax yield as a proxy for the ticket price.

Q Definition of 9 forecasting regions providing 53 route groups (36

International , 8 Intra-region & 9 Domestic) plus 1 non-scheduled

segment

Q Air traffic (RPKs) forecasts have been produced until 2030 and extended

to the 2040 horizon which could be required for some environmental

analysis

Q 3 Scenarios built: Most likely, Low and High Scenarios

Q Modelling traffic by market considering quantitative relationships such

as economic growth or pax yield as a proxy for the ticket price.

Q Definition of 9 forecasting regions providing 53 route groups (36

International , 8 Intra-region & 9 Domestic) plus 1 non-scheduled

segment

Q Air traffic (RPKs) forecasts have been produced until 2030 and extended

to the 2040 horizon which could be required for some environmental

analysis

Q 3 Scenarios built: Most likely, Low and High Scenarios

State of global economy (GDP growth)

Airline ticket price. (measured in Yields)

State of global economy (GDP growth)

Airline ticket price. (measured in Yields)

Air travel demand drivers

20

gro

wth

in

%

4

5

Traffic growth Real Yield growth Real GDP growth

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Tra

ffic

& y

ield

gro

wth

in

%

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

GD

P g

row

th in

%

Source: ICAO, IHS/ Global Insight

450

500

550

600

19

79

: In

de

x B

as

e 1

00

World Real GDP World Passenger traffic

World Cargo traffic

Air transport Air transport vsvs Economic growthEconomic growth

100

150

200

250

300350

400

450

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

19

79

: In

de

x B

as

e 1

00

Source: ICAO, IHS/ Global Insight

Factors promoting air travel demand Factors promoting air travel demand Factors promoting air travel demand Factors promoting air travel demand

Globalization

VFR

27%

Strong progression of the VFR* segment in the last 10 yearsStrong progression of the VFR* segment in the last 10 years

Air travel demand segmentation

Source: UNWTO

Others

7%

Business

17%

Vacation

and Leisure

49%

*VFR: Visiting Friends & Relatives


Higher Disposable incomes

Globalization

International Tourism Expenditure (US$ billion)

Germany

United States

60

70

80

90

100

International Tourism ExpendituresInternational Tourism Expenditures

United Kingdom

China

France

Italy

Japan

Canada

Russian Federation

Netherlands

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09

Source: UNWTO/European Travel Commission report on Demographic Change and Tourism

Falling air fares



Falling air faresGlobalization

Number of LCCs : 13

Deregulation : 1978

Number of LCCs : 33

Network carriers

79%

LCCs

21%

Network carriers

86%

LCCs

14%

Network carriers

79%

LCCs

21%

Number of LCCs : 48

Deregulation : 1987- 1997

Low Cost Carriers development

Deregulation : accelerating

Number of LCCs (Africa and Middle East) : 10

Deregulation : uneven

Number of LCCs : 10

Deregulation : in progress

79%

Network carriers

76%

LCCs

24%

Network carriers

91%

LCCs

9%

Source: ICAO

Falling air fares



Liberalization

Falling air faresGlobalization

ICAN: ICAO forum for liberalizationICAN: ICAO forum for liberalizationICAN: ICAO forum for liberalizationICAN: ICAO forum for liberalization

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

T

r

a

B

i

l

l

i

o

LCCsNon Scheduled carriersLegacy carriers

Liberalization a necessary framework for LCCsLiberalization a necessary framework for LCCs

1999-2009:14% p.a.

1999-2009:4.3 %p.a.

Total European air traffic

1989-1999:4.5 %p.a.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

a

f

f

i

c

o

n

s

R

P

K

Source: ICAO

1989-2009:4.4 %p.a.

The link between the promoting factors The link between the promoting factors

Improving Technology

Liberalization

Falling Costs

Falling Fares

Economic Growth

Growing Traffic

Emerging markets lead the recovery

Favoring the expansion of some regional air travel marketsFavoring the expansion of some regional air travel markets

Real GDP growth change in % Real GDP growth change in % China forecast to have as many as 100 China forecast to have as many as 100

million of their inhabitants travelling million of their inhabitants travelling internationally by 2020internationally by 2020

China forecast to have as many as 100 China forecast to have as many as 100 million of their inhabitants travelling million of their inhabitants travelling internationally by 2020internationally by 2020

Source: IHS Global Insight

*BRIC: Brazil Russia India China

Re

al G

DP

gro

wth

ch

an

ge

in

%

Re

al G

DP

gro

wth

ch

an

ge

in

%

China & India lead Emerging Markets and

the BRIC* in Real GDP growth

China & India lead Emerging Markets and

the BRIC* in Real GDP growth

120

140

160

US

Co

nfi

de

nc

e I

nd

ex

0

10

EU

Co

nfi

de

nc

e I

nd

ex

US Consumer Confidence Index EU CCI

Consumer Confidence IndexConsumer Confidence Index

Upward trend but still below the average 2007 level

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-

99

Dec-

00

Dec-

01

Dec-

02

Dec-

03

Dec-

04

Dec-

05

Dec-

06

Dec-

07

Dec-

08

Dec-

09

Dec-

10

US

Co

nfi

de

nc

e I

nd

ex

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

EU

Co

nfi

de

nc

e I

nd

ex

Source: IHS Global Insight

Top ten traffic flows in 2030Top ten traffic flows in 2030

20-Year Growth % % World RPKs

2.6% 15.0%

7.9% 10.7%

4.3% 7.4%

2.6% 5.7%

6.7% 4.1%6.7% 4.1%

5.3% 3.6%

7.8% 3.5%

5.0% 3.3%

5.9% 3.1%

9.0% 2.9%

10000

12000

14000

Wo

rld

tra

ffic

in

Bil

lio

n R

PK

sLong-term traffic forecast resultsLong-term traffic forecast results

High Scenario

Forecasts

Most Likely scenario

2010-2030:

2010-2030:5.2 % p.a.

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Wo

rld

tra

ffic

in

Bil

lio

n R

PK

s

Low scenario

History

Source: ICAO

2010-2030:3.7% p.a.

1999-2009:4.3 %p.a.

2010-2030:4.7%p.a.

Regional* passenger traffic forecastsRegional* passenger traffic forecasts

Region Growth2010-2030

Share2030

Growth2010-2030

Share2030

North America 3.9 14 2.6 40

Europe 4.3 37 1.7 5

Pax Traffic International (%) Domestic (%) Total (%)

Growth2010-2030

Share2030

3 23

4.1 25Europe 4.3 37 1.7 5

Asia/Pacific 5.7 32 7.1 47

Latin America 6.1 5 5.3 6

Africa 4.7 3 4.8 1

Middle East 5.2 9 4.8 1

WORLD 4.8 100 4.4 100

*Traffic of airlines domiciled in each region expressed in RPKs growth and market shares

4.1 25

6.3 38

5.8 5.5

4.7 2.5

5.2 6

4.7 100

Aircraft movements forecast methodologyAircraft movements forecast methodology

Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements assumptions on future assumptions on future average load factoraverage load factor, average , average aircraft seating aircraft seating capacitiescapacities and average and average distance stage length distance stage length ::

Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements assumptions on future assumptions on future average load factoraverage load factor, average , average aircraft seating aircraft seating capacitiescapacities and average and average distance stage length distance stage length ::

Available seat-kilometres =

Revenue passenger-

kilometres

Average load factorAverage load factor

Aircraft-kilometres =

Available seat-

kilometres

Average aircraft seating

capacity

Aircraft movements =

Aircraft-kilometres

Average stage

length

2030 Aircraft movements forecast2030 Aircraft movements forecast

Africa, 2.0%

World total aircraft movements in 2030: 51.708

Asia Pacific, 31.7%

Europe, 23.3%

Latin America, 7.7%

Middle East, 2.9%

North America, 32.3%

Why do we need Statistics?

Air travel safety rates

The environmental impact on air transport

The sustainable air transport development

ICAO Statistics ProgrammeICAO Statistics Programme

1 Monitor ICAO Strategic Objectives

2 Analyse the air transport market2 Analyse the air transport market3 Assess the impact of new regulations4 Forecasting

5 Plan the development of airport and ANS facilities

6 Negotiate bilateral agreements

7 Calculate the individual financial contribution of States

8 Implement future training strategies

Orders and Deliveries of Boeing and Airbus , 1975-2009

2000

2500

3000

Nu

mb

er

of

Air

cra

ft

Orders

1473

1095

2871

Strong backlog for the major aircraft

manufacturers

Strong backlog for the major aircraft

manufacturers

0

500

1000

1500

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Nu

mb

er

of

Air

cra

ft

Deliveries

715

1473

443

Source: aircraft manufacturers

DeliveriesForecasts

Need to monitor closely any potential impact on Safety as 60% of aircraft replacement are for growth

979

452

Future pilots requirements* vs training capacitiesFuture pilots requirements* vs training capacities

EuropePilots Capacity

ICAO 15 552 7 955

North AmericaPilots Needs Capacity

ICAO 10 449 27 655

Middle EastPilots Capacity

ICAO 2 458 860

Most likely scenario

*Estimate of average annual needs for 2010 to 2030 period based on various world fleet categories;: Regional and business jets, Turboprops, Single aisle, Twin aisles and Freighters

Training capacity is based on current figures without any incremental effect due to planned additional capacities

Asia / Pacific

Pilots Capacity

ICAO 13 983 4 935

AfricaPilots Capacity

ICAO 3 814 1 010

Pilots capacity

ICAO 6 250 1 945

Latin America

Pilots Capacity

ICAO 52 506 44 360

World

Source: ICAO preliminary figures

Statistics derived products Statistics derived products

Indicators for Monitoring purposes such as, Liberalization pace

2727

Forecasts & economic analyses and studies

Enhanced transparency of aviation policies

World Air Services Agreements DBWorld Air Services Agreements DB

Statistics ALL-IN-ONEStatistics ALL-IN-ONE

Aeronautical charges on-lineAeronautical charges on-line

ICAO All rights reserved.

This document and all informationcontained herein is the sole property ofICAO. No intellectual property rights aregranted by the delivery of this document orthe disclosure of its content. Thisthe disclosure of its content. Thisdocument shall not be reproduced ordisclosed to a third party without priorpermission of ICAO. This document and itscontent shall not be used for any purposeother than that for which it is supplied.

The statements made herein are based onthe mentioned assumptions and areexpressed in good faith. Where thesupporting grounds for these statementsare not shown, ICAO will be pleased toexplain the basis thereof.

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