Aviation Fuels Forecast Methodology Joint Lead Commissioner Workshop on Inputs and Assumptions for Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts March 19, 2015.

Aviation FuelsForecast Methodology

Joint Lead Commissioner Workshop on Inputsand Assumptions for

Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts

March 19, 2015

Gordon SchrempEnergy Assessments Division

California Energy [email protected]

California Energy Commission

Outline

• Aviation fuels– Types and historical consumption

• Aviation fuel forecast approach– Federal information resources

• Historical data• FAA projections

– Adjustments based on California relationship to national trends

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Aviation Fuels• Three types:

– Aviation gasoline, military jet fuel, and commercial jet fuel

• Historical data resources & methodology– Aviation gasoline

• Monthly data published by the California State Board of Equalization (BOE)

– Military jet fuel – JP5 and JP8• Supply/demand balance constructed based on:

– Defense Logistics Agency (DLA Energy) solicitation packages & addendums– CEC PIIRA data for refinery production, marine imports & pipeline exports– Regional analysis for CA, AZ, NV & NM– 67 individual locations – delivery terminals and military bases

– Commercial jet fuel – Jet A• Supply/demand balance constructed based on:

– CEC PIIRA data for refinery production, marine imports/exports & pipeline exports– Regional analysis for CA, AZ & NV

– BOE publishes taxable jet fuel volumes – for private jets, not in-plane fueling of commercial aircraft

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0

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

3,500,000,000

4,000,000,000

4,500,000,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Gal

lons

Commercial Jet Fuel Military Jet Fuel Aviation Gasoline

California Aviation Fuel Demand (2004 – 2013)

California Energy Commission

Sources: Board of Equalization, Defense Logistics Agency, and PIIRA data.

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Commercial jet fuel dominates aviation fuel use accounting for 91.4 percent of total over the last decade while military jet fuel amounted to 8 percent and aviation gasoline only 0.6 percent.

Aviation Fuel Forecast Approach

• Aviation fuel demand projections developed for California, not part of CEC transportation forecast modeling

• No aviation gasoline demand projections• Commercial jet fuel demand forecast

– Will incorporate projections for military jet fuel use as military continues to shift from JP8 to Jet A

• Will develop demand forecast based on federal projections of:– Total fuel consumed for passenger & air cargo activity– Enplaned passenger projections for California– Fuel consumption relationship for enplaned passengers

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Historical Aviation Data

• Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS)– Track information on aviation activity

• Domestic and international carriers• Numbers of passengers boarding planes – enplaned passengers• Routes & segments• Passenger miles traveled• Air cargo – ton miles• Fuel consumption by domestic and international activity

– Historical files can be extracted from their T100 database• Actual revenue passenger enplanements for all California airports• Used to calibrate historical fuel consumption data through most current year

available from BTS database

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Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

• Annual publication – 20-year outlook• Fuel consumption projections for

domestic and international activity for U.S. carriers– Includes passenger & cargo

• Passenger traffic projections– Enplaned passenger projections by

airport

• Fuel use forecasts assumptions for– Load factors by aircraft type– Fuel efficiency improvements

• Passenger and cargo projections based on– Economic growth, fuel prices, etc.

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Additional Forecast Adjustments

• FAA forecasts for fuel consumption are national projections only, no state-specific forecasts

• California enplaned passenger forecasts used to adjust per-passenger fuel consumption projections

• California historical average fuel consumption per enplaned passenger already higher than national average– Greater percentage of international destinations compared to U.S.

average

• FAA forecasts do not include high and low demand cases• Staff will examine options to create a bounded forecast

– One example – varying the portion of international enplaned passenger traffic

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Additional Q & A

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