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December 11, 2018 Black Rose Industries Ltd. Niche business…baby steps towards a bigger future… CMP INR 48 Target INR 69 Result Update - BUY SKP Securities Ltd www.skpsecurities.com Page 1 of 7 Company Background Black Rose Industries Limited (BRIL), promoted by Mr Anup Jatia of Mumbai (originally from Japan), entered into manufacturing liquid Acrylamide (only one in South Asia) in FY14 in Jhagadia, Gujarat. It finds extensive usage in manufacture of polymers used in growth industries like oil & gas, affluent/waste water treatment, etc. It saves on conversion cost (from solid to liquid) for Poly-Acrylamide (PAM) manufacturers. BRIL is also setting up a 57,000 MTPA PAM capacity at the same site at a capex of Rs 600 mn. BRIL continues to be in its erstwhile business of importing, distributing and exporting a range of specialty chemicals, performance chemicals and rubber chemicals with a strong linkage with Japan. This business continues to grow, but is likely to get eclipsed by its manufacturing activities. Investment Rationale Topline to grow ~24% CAGR during FY18-21E with improvement in margins: During Q2FY19, BRIL’s overall standalone topline witnessed phenomenal growth of 58.2% to Rs 545.6 mn due to robust growth in Acrylamide business along with chemical distribution business which contributes large part of overall chemical business sales. This has led to reduction in EBIDTA margin as chemical distribution business is a low margin business in comparison to manufacturing of high margin Acrylamide. Raw material cost for manufacturing Acrylamide also rose steeply during the quarter, putting pressure on the margins. EBITDA margin decreased by 290 bps y-o-y to 10.4% during the quarter. EBITDA margins are expected to stabilize at ~13.5% by FY21E on account of better product mix with the contribution from high margin Poly-Acrylamides, optimum capacity utilization from Acrylamide and recent fall in crude prices (crude prices has fallen more than 30% since Oct 2018 from the peak of ~USD 86 per barrel). BRIL posted a topline of Rs 982.3 mn during H1FY19 with a growth of 10.6% vis-à-vis last year. Sensing larger capacity needs for future, BRIL has increased its Acrylamide capacity from 10,000 mtpa to 14,000 mtpa and Government approvals are obtained to increase further up to 20,000 mtpa, for which an outlay of ~Rs 40 mn to be funded internally. The Company sold ~Rs 597 mn worth of Acrylamide during FY18, and is expected to grow to ~Rs 930 mn by FY21E with optimum capacity utilization of expanded capacity (14,000 mtpa). Game changing entry in Poly-Acrylamides with capex of Rs 600 mn: Increased focus on affluent/waste water treatment will create incremental demand for PAM. Recently, Oil Ministry has initiated a new policy wherein they will auction oil fields for extraction of crude oil via enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technology (in line with international practices). This will enable the nation to double its oil output thereby reducing imports of costly oil. Implementation of this technology will require large quantities of PAM. Acrylamide is the basic raw material for Poly-Acrylamides. BRIL plans to set up Poly-Acrylamides capacity powder and liquids (10,000 mtpa and 40,000 mtpa respectively), Polycarboxylates (5,000 mtpa) and N- Methynol-Acrylamide (2,000 mtpa) at a capex of Rs 600 mn, at its existing unit where most basic infrastructure is in place. It has received environment clearance for the project on October 30, 2018. We expect BRIL to commission the plant by the end of Q3FY20. With this expansion BRIL is targeting both domestic and export markets. At full capacity, PAM will add Rs 3 bn in revenues, expectedly by FY22. Majority of above mentioned products are primarily imported with growing demand in the domestic market. PAM have major use in water & waste water treatment EOR, oil drilling, fracking, mining, textiles, ceramics, papermaking, etc. Polycarboxylates is applied in ceramic and other chemical processing industry whereas N-Methylol-Acrylamide is used in manufacture of textile auxiliaries, adhesives etc. With limited technology sources for manufacturing of liquid Acrylamide and now Poly-Acrylamides, BRIL will enjoy a strong first mover advantage in South Asia. Given its strong association with leading Japanese chemical manufacturers, sourcing the right technology should not be an issue for BRIL. Valuation With BRIL’s successful regional first mover advantage in niche Acrylamide and strategic move towards Poly-Acrylamides, finding extensive usage in several growth industries, good future growth opportunities and a strong chemicals distribution business, BRIL revenues and margins are expected to increase steadily in coming years. The stock has met our initial target and rallied to a life time high of Rs. 62 recently. We have discounted the stock at EV/EBIDTA of 9x, on the EBIDTA of FY21E and recommend BUY on the stock with a target price of Rs 69 (upside of ~44%) in 18 months. Key Share Data Face Value (INR) 1.0 Equity Capital (INR Mn) 51.0 Market Cap 2448.0 52 Week High/Low (INR) 62/37 Avg. Daily Volume (BSE) 26,181 BSE Code 514183 NSE Code -- Reuters Code BRIL.BO Bloomberg Code BROS:IN Shareholding Pattern (Sept 31, 2018) 75.0% 0.1% 24.9% Promoters FIIs Public & Others Particulars FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Sales 1,849.7 2,091.3 2,390.6 3,486.6 Growth (%) 11.6% 13.1% 14.3% 45.8% EBITDA 210.6 215.9 248.6 471.1 PAT 111.6 112.6 122.8 236.5 Growth (%) 143.0% 0.9% 9.0% 92.6% EPS (INR) 2.2 2.2 2.4 4.6 BVPS (INR) 6.8 8.5 10.3 14.0 Key Financials (INR Million) Particulars FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E P/E (x) 21.9 21.7 19.9 10.4 P/BVPS (x) 7.1 5.6 4.7 3.4 Mcap/Sales (x) 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.0 13.0 12.9 6.7 ROCE (%) 28.1% 23.6% 16.3% 27.1% ROE (%) 32.1% 25.8% 23.5% 33.2% EBIDTA Mar (%) 11.4% 10.3% 10.4% 13.5% PAT Mar (%) 6.0% 5.4% 5.1% 6.8% Debt - Equity (x) 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.1 Source: Company, SKP Research Key Financials Ratios Price Performance BRIL vs BSESMALLCAP -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 BRIL BSE SMALLCAP Analyst: Vineet Agrawal Tel No: +91-22-49226006 e-mail: [email protected]
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Page 1: Avg. Daily Volume (BSE) 26,181 BSE Code 514183 24.9% NSE ...

December 11, 2018

B Black Rose Industries Ltd.

Niche business…baby steps towards a bigger future…

CMP INR 48 Target INR 69 Result Update - BUY

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpsecurities.com Page 1 of 7

Company Background Black Rose Industries Limited (BRIL), promoted by Mr Anup Jatia of Mumbai (originally from Japan), entered into manufacturing liquid Acrylamide (only one in South Asia) in FY14 in Jhagadia, Gujarat. It finds extensive usage in manufacture of polymers used in growth industries like oil & gas, affluent/waste water treatment, etc. It saves on conversion cost (from solid to liquid) for Poly-Acrylamide (PAM) manufacturers. BRIL is also setting up a 57,000 MTPA PAM capacity at the same site at a capex of Rs 600 mn. BRIL continues to be in its erstwhile business of importing, distributing and exporting a range of specialty chemicals, performance chemicals and rubber chemicals with a strong linkage with Japan. This business continues to grow, but is likely to get eclipsed by its manufacturing activities. Investment Rationale

Topline to grow ~24% CAGR during FY18-21E with improvement in margins:

During Q2FY19, BRIL’s overall standalone topline witnessed phenomenal growth of 58.2% to Rs 545.6 mn due to robust growth in Acrylamide business along with chemical distribution business which contributes large part of overall chemical business sales. This has led to reduction in EBIDTA margin as chemical distribution business is a low margin business in comparison to manufacturing of high margin Acrylamide. Raw material cost for manufacturing Acrylamide also rose steeply during the quarter, putting pressure on the margins. EBITDA margin decreased by 290 bps y-o-y to 10.4% during the quarter. EBITDA margins are expected to stabilize at ~13.5% by FY21E on account of better product mix with the contribution from high margin Poly-Acrylamides, optimum capacity utilization from Acrylamide and recent fall in crude prices (crude prices has fallen more than 30% since Oct 2018 from the peak of ~USD 86 per barrel). BRIL posted a topline of Rs 982.3 mn during H1FY19 with a growth of 10.6% vis-à-vis last year.

Sensing larger capacity needs for future, BRIL has increased its Acrylamide capacity from 10,000 mtpa to 14,000 mtpa and Government approvals are obtained to increase further up to 20,000 mtpa, for which an outlay of ~Rs 40 mn to be funded internally. The Company sold ~Rs 597 mn worth of Acrylamide during FY18, and is expected to grow to ~Rs 930 mn by FY21E with optimum capacity utilization of expanded capacity (14,000 mtpa).

Game changing entry in Poly-Acrylamides with capex of Rs 600 mn:

Increased focus on affluent/waste water treatment will create incremental demand for PAM. Recently, Oil Ministry has initiated a new policy wherein they will auction oil fields for extraction of crude oil via enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technology (in line with international practices). This will enable the nation to double its oil output thereby reducing imports of costly oil. Implementation of this technology will require large quantities of PAM. Acrylamide is the basic raw material for Poly-Acrylamides.

BRIL plans to set up Poly-Acrylamides capacity – powder and liquids (10,000 mtpa and 40,000 mtpa respectively), Polycarboxylates (5,000 mtpa) and N-Methynol-Acrylamide (2,000 mtpa) at a capex of Rs 600 mn, at its existing unit where most basic infrastructure is in place. It has received environment clearance for the project on October 30, 2018. We expect BRIL to commission the plant by the end of Q3FY20. With this expansion BRIL is targeting both domestic and export markets. At full capacity, PAM will add Rs 3 bn in revenues, expectedly by FY22.

Majority of above mentioned products are primarily imported with growing demand in the domestic market. PAM have major use in water & waste water treatment EOR, oil drilling, fracking, mining, textiles, ceramics, papermaking, etc. Polycarboxylates is applied in ceramic and other chemical processing industry whereas N-Methylol-Acrylamide is used in manufacture of textile auxiliaries, adhesives etc. With limited technology sources for manufacturing of liquid Acrylamide and now Poly-Acrylamides, BRIL will enjoy a strong first mover advantage in South Asia. Given its strong association with leading Japanese chemical manufacturers, sourcing the right technology should not be an issue for BRIL.

Valuation

With BRIL’s successful regional first mover advantage in niche Acrylamide and strategic move towards Poly-Acrylamides, finding extensive usage in several growth industries, good future growth opportunities and a strong chemicals distribution business, BRIL revenues and margins are expected to increase steadily in coming years.

The stock has met our initial target and rallied to a life time high of Rs. 62 recently. We have discounted the stock at EV/EBIDTA of 9x, on the EBIDTA of FY21E and recommend BUY on the stock with a target price of Rs 69 (upside of ~44%) in 18 months.

Key Share Data

Face Value (INR) 1.0

Equity Capital (INR Mn) 51.0

Market Cap 2448.0

52 Week High/Low (INR) 62/37

Avg. Daily Volume (BSE) 26,181

BSE Code 514183

NSE Code --

Reuters Code BRIL.BO

Bloomberg Code BROS:IN

Shareholding Pattern (Sept 31, 2018)

75.0%

0.1%

24.9%

Promoters

FIIs

Public & Others

Particulars FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Net Sales 1,849.7 2,091.3 2,390.6 3,486.6

Growth (%) 11.6% 13.1% 14.3% 45.8%

EBITDA 210.6 215.9 248.6 471.1

PAT 111.6 112.6 122.8 236.5

Growth (%) 143.0% 0.9% 9.0% 92.6%

EPS (INR) 2.2 2.2 2.4 4.6

BVPS (INR) 6.8 8.5 10.3 14.0

Key Financials (INR Million)

Particulars FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

P/E (x) 21.9 21.7 19.9 10.4

P/BVPS (x) 7.1 5.6 4.7 3.4

Mcap/Sales (x) 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 13.0 13.0 12.9 6.7

ROCE (%) 28.1% 23.6% 16.3% 27.1%

ROE (%) 32.1% 25.8% 23.5% 33.2%

EBIDTA Mar (%) 11.4% 10.3% 10.4% 13.5%

PAT Mar (%) 6.0% 5.4% 5.1% 6.8%

Debt - Equity (x) 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.1

Source: Company, SKP Research

Key Financials Ratios

Price Performance BRIL vs BSESMALLCAP

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

De

c-1

7

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

BRIL

BSE SMALLCAP

Analyst: Vineet Agrawal

Tel No: +91-22-49226006

e-mail: [email protected]

Page 2: Avg. Daily Volume (BSE) 26,181 BSE Code 514183 24.9% NSE ...

Black Rose Industries Ltd.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpsecurities.com Page 2 of 7

Q2FY19 & H1FY19 Standalone BRIL Result Review

(All data in Rs mn unless specified, Y/e March)

Particulars Q2 FY19 Q2 FY18 % Change Q1 FY19 % Change H1FY19 H1FY18 % Change

Net Sales 545.6 344.8 58.2% 436.6 25.0% 982.3 887.8 10.6%

Total Expenditure 489.0 298.8 38.9% 397.1 23.1% 886.1 805.5 9.1%

Raw Material Consumed 121.9 45.4 168.8% 124.4 -2.0% 246.3 188.1 30.9%

% to Sales 22.3% 13.2% -- 28.5% -- 25.1% 21.2% --

Purchase of traded goods 301.9 218.6 38.1% 226.8 33.1% 528.7 495.9 6.6%

% to Sales 55.3% 63.4% -- 51.9% -- 53.8% 55.9% --

Employee Expenses 9.3 7.8 19.6% 8.8 5.4% 18.1 15.9 14.0%

% to Sales 1.7% 2.3% -- 2.0% -- 1.8% 1.8% --

Fuel Cost 0.0 0.0 -- 0.0 -- 0.0 0.0 --

% to Sales 0.0% 0.0% -- 0.0% -- 0.0% 0.0% --

Marketing & Advertisement 0.0 0.0 -- 0.0 -- 0.0 0.0 --

% to Sales 0.0% 0.0% -- 0.0% -- 0.0% 0.0% --

Other Expenses 55.8 27.1 105.8% 37.1 50.4% 92.9 105.6 -12.0%

% to Sales 10.2% 7.9% -- 8.5% -- 9.5% 11.9% --

EBIDTA 56.7 46.0 23.2% 39.6 43.2% 96.2 82.3 16.9%

EBIDTA Margin 10.4% 13.3% -- 9.1% -- 9.8% 9.3% --

Depreciation 5.3 6.7 -20.5% 5.2 2.4% 10.6 13.6 -22.4%

EBIT 51.3 39.24 30.7% 34.3 49.4% 85.7 68.7 24.6%

EBIT Margin 9.4% 11.4% -- 7.9% -- 8.7% 7.7% --

Other Income 1.5 1.3 15.9% 1.6 -1.8% 3.1 2.4 28.6%

Interest 8.2 9.3 -11.3% 7.9 4.8% 16.1 19.9 -19.2%

Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 -- 0.0 -- 0.0 0.0 --

Forex Difference 0.0 0.0 -- 0.0 -- 0.0 0.0 --

Tax 13.7 8.0 72.2% 7.5 84.1% 21.2 12.1 75.4%

Extraordinary Items 0.0 0.0 -- 0.0 -- 0.0 0.0 --

Prior period taxes written bk. 0.0 0.0 -- 0.0 -- 0.0 0.0 --

Reported Profit After Tax 30.9 23.3 32.4% 20.6 50.0% 51.5 39.1 31.6%

PAT Margin 5.7% 6.8% -- 4.7% -- 5.2% 4.4% --Diluted EPS (Rs) 0.6 0.5 34.8% 0.4 55.0% 1.0 0.8 32.5%

Segment Wise Results Q2 FY19 Q2 FY18 % Change Q1 FY19 % Change H1FY19 H1FY18 % Change

Textiles 2.4 1.4 75.8% 3.4 -29.4% 5.8 5.7 2.0%

Contribution to net sales (%) 0.4% 0.4% -- 0.8% -- 0.6% 0.6% --

Chemicals 541.5 342.2 58.2% 431.5 25.5% 973.0 877.7 10.9%

Contribution to net sales (%) 99.0% 98.9% -- 98.5% -- 98.8% 98.6% --

Renewable Energy 3.2 2.6 23.4% 3.3 -3.2% 6.4 6.0 6.1%

Contribution to net sales (%) 0.6% 0.7% -- 0.7% -- 0.7% 0.7% --

Others 0.0 0.0 -- 0.0 -- 0.0 0.7 --

Total Net Sales 547.0 346.1 58.0% 438.2 24.9% 985.2 890.2 10.7%

Segment Wise Margin Breakup Q2 FY19 Q2 FY18 % Change Q1 FY19 % Change H1FY19 H1FY18 % Change

Textiles 0.9 -0.1 -911.2% 0.4 101.9% 1.3 0.2 443.1%

EBIT Margin (%) 36.1% -7.8% -- 12.6% -- 22.4% 4.2% --

Chemicals 57.2 45.1 27.0% 41.9 36.6% 99.1 79.4 24.9%

EBIT Margin (%) 10.6% 13.2% -- 9.7% -- 10.2% 9.0% --

Renewable Energy 1.9 1.4 34.0% 2.0 -5.9% 4.0 3.8 4.1%

EBIT Margin (%) 60.8% 56.0% -- 62.6% -- 61.7% 62.9% --

Others 0.0 0.0 -- 0.0 -- 0.0 0.5 --

Total Net Sales 60.0 46.4 29.4% 44.4 35.3% 104.4 84.0 24.3%

Source: The Company, SKP Research

Page 3: Avg. Daily Volume (BSE) 26,181 BSE Code 514183 24.9% NSE ...

Black Rose Industries Ltd.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpsecurities.com Page 3 of 7

Chart 1: Acrylamide Sales Chart 2: Chemical Distribution Revenues

Chart 3: Revenue Contribution – FY18 Chart 4: Revenue Contribution – FY21E

Chart 5: EBIDTA & EBIDTM – Standalone Chart 6: PAT & PATM – Standalone

Chart 7: ROE & ROCE Chart 8: Debt Equity and Interest Coverage

Source: SKP Research Desk

63.8%

34.8%

0.8% 0.5%

FY18

Chemical Distribution

Acrylamide

Textiles

Wind Energy

Others

52

273

355

496

597

748

875 930

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

43.3%

26.7%

29.0%

0.4%

0.3% 0.4% FY21E

Chemical Distribution

Acrylamide

Polyacrylamides

Textiles

Wind Energy

Others

28

.6

51

.1

16

.2

64

.0

91

.4

13

9.5

21

0.6

21

5.9

24

8.6

47

1.1

3.5%

6.1%

1.9%

4.4%

7.1%

8.4%

11.4%10.3% 10.4%

13.5%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

75.0

90.0

105.0

120.0

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

EBIDTA (Rs mn) (LHS) EBIDTM (%) (RHS)

2.4

16

.3

-27

.5

5.5 15

.8

45

.9

11

1.6

11

2.6

12

2.8

23

6.5

0.3%

1.9%

-3.2%

0.4%

1.2%

2.8%

6.0% 5.4%5.1%

6.8%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21EP

AT

Mar

gin

(%

)

PA

T (

Rs m

n)

78

4

81

4

77

1

11

58

89

5

11

01

12

15

13

06

14

10

15

09

-3%4%

-5%

50%

-23%

23%

10% 7% 8% 7%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Ch

em

ica

Dis

t R

eve

nu

es

(Rs

mn

)

Sales in Value (Rs mn) - LHS 810 % Growth - RHS

1.6 1.61.9

2.1

1.9 1.50.9 0.9

1.51.11.0

2.6

-0.2

0.7

1.4

2.4

4.9

6.3

5.5

6.4

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

D/E (x) Interest Coverage (x)

2.0%11.8%

-14.7%

2.9%

7.6%

18.1%

32.1%

25.8%23.5%

33.2%

5.4%

11.2%

-1.0%

6.1%

10.8% 17.4%

28.1%

23.6%

16.3%

27.1%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

ROE (%) ROCE (%)

Page 4: Avg. Daily Volume (BSE) 26,181 BSE Code 514183 24.9% NSE ...

Black Rose Industries Ltd.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpsecurities.com Page 4 of 7

KEY CONCERNS

Volatile foreign exchange: As mentioned earlier, BRIL is the net importer of chemicals. Thus any unfavorable movement of foreign exchange rate may adversely affect the results of the company.

VALUATION

With BRIL’s successful regional first mover advantage in niche Acrylamide and now strategic move towards Poly-Acrylamides, finding extensive usage in several growth industries, good future growth opportunities and strengthening of its chemicals distribution business, BRIL revenues and margins are expected to increase steadily in coming years.

The stock has met our initial target and rallied to a life time high of Rs. 62 recently. We have discounted the stock at EV/EBIDTA of 9x, on the EBIDTA of FY21E andrecommend buy on the stock, with a target price of Rs 69 (upside of ~44%) in 18 months.

Exhibit: One Year forward looking EV/EBIDTA band

Source: SKP Research

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Ap

r-0

9

Oct

-09

Ap

r-1

0

Oct

-10

Ap

r-1

1

Oct

-11

Ap

r-1

2

Oct

-12

Ap

r-1

3

Oct

-13

Ap

r-1

4

Oct

-14

Ap

r-1

5

Oct

-15

Ap

r-1

6

Oct

-16

Ap

r-1

7

Oct

-17

Ap

r-1

8

Oct

-18

8 12 16 20 24 EV

Page 5: Avg. Daily Volume (BSE) 26,181 BSE Code 514183 24.9% NSE ...

Black Rose Industries Ltd.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpsecurities.com Page 5 of 7

Standalone Financials:

Exhibit: Balance Sheet

Particulars FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Particulars FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Total Income 1,849.7 2,091.3 2,390.6 3,486.6 Share Capital 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0

Growth (%) 11.6% 13.1% 14.3% 45.8% Reserve & Surplus 296.2 384.9 471.9 660.7

Expenditure 1,639.1 1,875.4 2,142.0 3,015.5 Shareholders Funds 347.2 435.9 522.9 711.7

Material Cost 330.4 475.9 597.8 1,239.7 Term Loan 140.5 125.5 513.8 482.0

Pur of Traded Goods 1,117.8 1,177.8 1,269.2 1,364.4 Short Term Loan 176.1 256.1 296.1 316.1

Employee Benefit Exp 36.4 46.0 59.8 87.2 Total Debt 316.5 381.5 809.8 798.1

Other Expenses 154.6 175.7 215.2 324.3 Deferred Tax (Net) 41.4 41.4 41.4 41.4

EBITDA 210.6 215.9 248.6 471.1 Total Liabilities 705.1 858.9 1,374.1 1,551.2

Depreciation 24.1 22.6 31.8 60.4 Net Block inc. Capital WIP 342.0 479.5 907.7 877.3

EBIT 186.5 193.3 216.8 410.7 Investments 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6

Other Income 4.8 6.1 6.9 8.7 Other Non Current Assets 27.30 35.55 40.64 59.27

Interest Expense 38.2 30.5 39.6 63.8 Inventories 261.6 286.5 334.7 470.7

Profit Before Tax (PBT) 153.1 168.9 184.1 355.6 Sundry Debtors 338.4 376.4 430.3 627.6

Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash & Bank Balance 35.3 22.6 49.9 81.9

Income Tax 41.5 56.2 61.3 118.1 Loans & Advances 1.1 1.3 2.4 3.5

Profit After Tax (PAT) 111.6 112.6 122.8 237.5 Other Current Assets 34.8 39.7 45.4 66.2

Growth (%) 143.0% 0.9% 9.0% 92.6% Current Liabilities & Prov 337.0 384.3 438.5 636.9

Diluted EPS 2.2 2.2 2.4 4.6 Total Assets 705.1 858.9 1,374.2 1,551.2

Exhibit: Ratio Analysis

Particulars FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Particulars FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Profit Before Tax (PBT) 153.1 168.9 184.1 354.6 Earning Ratios (%)

Depreciation 24.1 22.6 31.8 60.4 EBITDA Margin (%) 11.4% 10.3% 10.4% 13.5%

Interest Provided 37.0 30.5 39.6 63.8 PAT Margins (%) 6.0% 5.4% 5.1% 6.8%

Chg. in Working Capital (53.1) (15.7) (47.9) (134.9) ROCE (%) 28.1% 23.6% 16.3% 27.1%

Direct Taxes Paid (39.3) (56.2) (61.3) (118.1) ROE (%) 32.1% 25.8% 23.5% 33.2%

Other Charges (2.8) (13.3) (11.9) (40.6) Per Share Data (INR)

Operating Cash Flows 119.1 136.7 134.4 185.3 Diluted EPS 2.2 2.2 2.4 4.6

Capital Expenditure (4.7) (160.0) (460.0) (30.0) Cash EPS (CEPS) 2.7 2.7 3.0 5.8

Investments - - - - BVPS 6.8 8.5 10.3 14.0

Others 4.4 - - - Valuation Ratios (x)

Investing Cash Flows (0.3) (160.0) (460.0) (30.0) P/E 21.9 21.7 19.9 10.4

Changes in Equity - - - - Price/BVPS 7.1 5.6 4.7 3.4

Inc / (Dec) in Debt (72.9) 65.0 428.3 (11.7) EV/Sales 1.5 1.3 1.3 0.9

Dividend Paid (inc tax) - (23.9) (35.8) (47.7) EV/EBITDA 13.0 13.0 12.9 6.7

Interest Paid & Others (37.0) (30.5) (39.6) (63.8) Dividend Yield (%) 0.2% 0.8% 1.3% 1.7%

Financing Cash Flows (109.9) 10.6 352.9 (123.3) Balance Sheet Ratios

Chg. in Cash & Cash Eqv 8.8 (12.7) 27.3 32.0 Debt - Equity 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.1

Opening Cash Balance 26.5 35.3 22.6 49.9 Current Ratio 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0

Closing Cash Balance 35.3 22.6 49.9 81.9 Fixed Asset Turn. Ratios 5.4 6.3 2.6 4.0

Source: Company Data, SKP Research

Exhibit: Income Statement

Exhibit: Cash Flow Statement

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Note:

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Exhibit: Recommendation -History Table Exhibit: Recommendation -History Chart

04-Jun-15 BUY 16 28 75% 18

28-Sep-15 NEUTRAL 28 -- -- --

02-Dec-15 NEUTRAL 25 -- -- --

15-Dec-17 NEUTRAL 40 -- -- --

26-Feb-18 BUY 50 62 24% 18

18-Jun-18 BUY 48 59 23% 18

11-Dec-18 BUY 48 69 44% 18

Source: SKP Research Source: BSE, SKP Research

Period

(months)Date Rating

Issue

Price

Target

Price

Upside

Potential

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

04-Jun-15 04-Jun-16 04-Jun-17 04-Jun-18

Close Price Target Price

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