Avaliação Energética do Sistema Interligado Nacional 18 de março de 2008 São Paulo – SP Luiz Hamilton Moreira GTOP
Avaliação Energéticado
Sistema Interligado Nacional
18 de março de 2008São Paulo – SP
Luiz Hamilton MoreiraGTOP
N
SE
NE
S
BOA
REGULAR
RUIM
SITUAÇÃO ENERGÉTICA DO SIN
EAR = 59,7%CON = 90%ENA = 79%
EAR DO DIA 14 de março/08CAR ARMAZENAMENTO AO FINAL DO MÊSENA ACUMULADA NO MÊS ATÉ O DIA 14/03/08
EAR = 53,5%CAR = 39,0%ENA = 78%
EAR = 70,8%CAR = 67%ENA = 110%
EAR = 44,2%CAR = 19,0%ENA = 66%
Situação
N
SE
NE
BOA
REGULAR
RUIM
BALANÇO ENERGÉTICO DO SIN
2718
2415
303
579
26325.606
ITAIPU 60 Hz
ITAIPU 50 Hz
CARGA = 3.578GHID = 6.297
GTER = 0 PLD = 125,59
CARGA = 7.685GHID = 3.811GTER = 873
GEOL= 7PLD = 125,59
CARGA = 32.985GHID = 21.439GNUC = 1.342GTER = 3.026PLD = 133,23
CARGA = 8.996GHID = 4.769GTER = 1.232
GEOL = 21PLD = 133,23
IMPORTAÇÃO
0
4.823
• VALORES MÉDIOS (MWmed) OBSERVADOS NO PERÍODO DE 08 a 14/Mar.
• PLD MÉDIO (R$/MWh) - SEMANA DE 08 A 14/Mar.
2974
S
TRANSFERÊNCIA DE ENERGIA ENTRE REGIÕES
Valores previstos para a semana de 15 a 21/03/08
SISTEMA - SUDESTE
~Itaipu 60 Hz
Interligações LTs230, 138 e 88 kV
SISTEMA - SUL
LTs 750 kV
750 kV
500 kV
IVAIPORÃMÁXIMO INTERCÂMBIO SE (MW)
9250LEVE
9450MÉDIA
9450PESADA
RECEBIMENTO SE PATAMAR CARGA
Interligações LTs 525 kVLNA-Assis e BAT-Ibiúna
(5) Carregamento (MW) LT 230 kV CCO-UMB(2) LT 230 kV CCO-UMB / Estabilidade do SIN
(4) Carregamento (MW) LT 230 kV LNA-APA(1) Estabilidade do SIN
(3) Nível tensão no norte do Paraná(*) Fator Limitante
5600 (5)5000 (2)LEVE
5700 (4)4600 (1)MÉDIA
6000 (3)4700 (1)PESADA
RECEBIMENTO (*)FORNECIMENTO (*)PATAMAR CARGA
MÁXIMO INTERCÂMBIO SUL (MW)
LIMITES DE TRANSFERÊNCIA S/SE
PREVISÃO CLIMÁTICA
Fonte: CPTEC/INPE
A menor temperatura da água do oceano no centro-leste do Pacífico caracteriza a condição de La-Niña com intensidade moderada. Esta condição deverá se estender até meados do outono de 2008.
EFEITOS GLOBAIS
Fonte: CPTEC/INPE
PREVISÃO CLIMÁTICA
Fonte: CPTEC/INPE
PREVISÃO CLIMÁTICA
Fonte: SIMEPAR
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO SUDESTE
0,0
10,020,0
30,040,0
50,0
60,070,0
80,090,0
100,0
jan fev mar abr mai jun jul ago set out nov dezArmazenamentos no final do mês
EA
R (
%)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
CAR 2008 / 2009
75,1% Valor esperado – PMO Mar/08 Rev. 02
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO SUDESTE
0,0
10,020,0
30,040,0
50,0
60,070,0
80,090,0
100,0
jan fev mar abr mai jun jul ago set out nov dezArmazenamentos no final do mês
EA
R (
%)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
CAR 2008 / 2009
75,1% Valor esperado – PMO Mar/08 Rev. 02 10096104991009999110
novoutsetagojuljunmaiabr
ENA (%MLT)
Estudo Prospectivo do ONS
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO SUDESTE
EAR (%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1/11 1/12 31/12 30/1 1/3
2006-2007 2007-2008
ENERGIA NAT. AFLUENTE DA REGIÃO SUDESTE
ENA (MWmed)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
1/11 1/12 31/12 30/1 1/3
2006-2007 2007-2008
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO SUL
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
jan fev mar abr mai jun jul ago set out nov dezArmazenamentos no final do mês
EA
R (
%)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
CAR 2008 / 2009
43,3% Valor esperado – PMO Mar/08 Rev. 02
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO SUL
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
jan fev mar abr mai jun jul ago set out nov dezArmazenamentos no final do mês
EA
R (
%)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
CAR 2008 / 200943,3% Valor
esperado – PMO Mar/08 Rev. 02 9494939086908985
novoutsetagojuljunmaiabr
ENA (%MLT)
Estudo Prospectivo do ONS
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO NORDESTE
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
jan fev mar abr mai jun jul ago set out nov dezArmazenamentos no final do mês
EA
R (
%)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
CAR 2008 / 2009
60,3% Valor esperado – PMO Mar/08 Rev. 02
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO NORDESTE
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
jan fev mar abr mai jun jul ago set out nov dezArmazenamentos no final do mês
EA
R (
%)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
CAR 2008 / 2009
60,3% Valor esperado – PMO Mar/08 Rev. 02
8289889292938678
novoutsetagojuljunmaiabr
ENA (%MLT)
Estudo Prospectivo do ONS
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO NORTE
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
jan fev mar abr mai jun jul ago set out nov dezArmazenamentos no final do mês
EA
R (
%)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
CON 2008
87,2% Valor esperado – PMO Mar/08 Rev. 02
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO NORTE
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
jan fev mar abr mai jun jul ago set out nov dezArmazenamentos no final do mês
EA
R (
%)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
CON 2008
87,2% Valor esperado – PMO Mar/08 Rev. 02
9193919189859186
novoutsetagojuljunmaiabr
ENA (%MLT)
Estudo Prospectivo do ONS
FATOS RELEVANTES
• 1º de fevereiro/2008 entrada em operação comercial do gasoduto Cabiúnas-Vitória
• A UTE Araucária encontra-se indisponível à operação, com previsão de retorno para abril
• Angra I retorno previsto para 15/abr
ARMAZENAMENTOS DA REGIÃO NORTE
2006 2007 2008
87,2
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0Jan
Fev
Mar
Ab
r
Mai
Ju
n
Ju
l
Ag
o
Set
Ou
t
No
v
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
Ab
r
Mai
Ju
n
Ju
l
Ag
o
Set
Ou
t
No
v
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
Ab
r
Mai
Ju
n
Ju
l
Ag
o
Set
Ou
t
No
v
Dez
EA
R (
%)
VERIFICADO
CONPMO Março
Rev. 02ENA = 92% MLT
ARMAZENAMENTOS DA REGIÃO NORDESTE
2006 2007 2008
60,3
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0Ja
n
Fev
Mar
Ab
r
Mai
Ju
n
Ju
l
Ag
o
Set
Ou
t
No
v
De
z
Ja
n
Fev
Mar
Ab
r
Mai
Ju
n
Ju
l
Ag
o
Set
Ou
t
No
v
De
z
Ja
n
Fev
Mar
Ab
r
Mai
Ju
n
Ju
l
Ag
o
Set
Ou
t
No
v
De
z
EA
R (
%)
CAR
VERIFICADO
PMO MarçoRev. 02
ENA = 91 % MLT
ARMAZENAMENTOS DA REGIÃO SUDESTE
2006 2007 2008
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0Jan
Fev
Mar
Ab
r
Mai
Ju
n
Ju
l
Ag
o
Set
Ou
t
No
v
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
Ab
r
Mai
Ju
n
Ju
l
Ag
o
Set
Ou
t
No
v
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
Ab
r
Mai
Ju
n
Ju
l
Ag
o
Set
Ou
t
No
v
Dez
EA
R (
%)
CAR
VERIFICADO
PMO MarçoRev. 02
ENA = 99 % MLT
75,1
ARMAZENAMENTOS DA REGIÃO SUL
2006 2007 2008
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0Jan
Fev
Ma
r
Ab
r
Mai
Ju
n
Ju
l
Ag
o
Set
Ou
t
No
v
Dez
Jan
Fev
Ma
r
Ab
r
Mai
Ju
n
Ju
l
Ag
o
Set
Ou
t
No
v
Dez
Jan
Fev
Ma
r
Ab
r
Mai
Ju
n
Ju
l
Ag
o
Set
Ou
t
No
v
Dez
EA
R (
%)
CAR
VERIFICADO
PMO MarçoRev. 02
ENA = 55 % MLT
43,3
Avaliação Energética
do
Sistema Interligado Nacional
18 de março de 2008
São Paulo – SP
Luiz Hamilton Moreira
GTOP
Área para Número do Slide
N
SE
NE
S
BOA
REGULAR
RUIM
SITUAÇÃO ENERGÉTICA DO SIN
EAR = 59,7%
CON = 90%
ENA = 79%
EAR DO DIA 14 de março/08
CAR ARMAZENAMENTO AO FINAL DO MÊS
ENA ACUMULADA NO MÊS ATÉ O DIA 14/03/08
EAR = 53,5%
CAR = 39,0%
ENA = 78%
EAR = 70,8%
CAR = 67%
ENA = 110%
EAR = 44,2%
CAR = 19,0%
ENA = 66%
Situação
Área para Número do Slide
A CAR da região Norte está associada apenas ao armazenamento de Tucuruí, que por sinal atualmente está vertendo.
N
SE
NE
BOA
REGULAR
RUIM
BALANÇO ENERGÉTICO DO SIN
2718
2415
303
579
2632
5.606
ITAIPU
60 Hz
ITAIPU
50 Hz
CARGA = 3.578
GHID = 6.297
GTER = 0
PLD = 125,59
CARGA = 7.685
GHID = 3.811
GTER = 873
GEOL= 7
PLD = 125,59
CARGA = 32.985
GHID = 21.439
GNUC = 1.342
GTER = 3.026
PLD = 133,23
CARGA = 8.996
GHID = 4.769
GTER = 1.232
GEOL = 21
PLD = 133,23
IMPORTAÇÃO
0
4.823
VALORES MÉDIOS (MWmed) OBSERVADOS NO PERÍODO DE 08 a 14/Mar.
PLD MÉDIO (R$/MWh) - SEMANA DE 08 A 14/Mar.
2974
S
Área para Número do Slide
O recebimento da região Nordeste é apenas para atendimento às necessidades elétricas da região.
TRANSFERÊNCIA DE ENERGIA ENTRE REGIÕES
Valores previstos para a semana de 15 a 21/03/08
Área para Número do Slide
O recebimento da região Nordeste é apenas para atendimento às necessidades elétricas da região.
SISTEMA - SUDESTE
Itaipu 60 Hz
Interligações LTs
230, 138 e 88 kV
SISTEMA - SUL
LTs 750 kV
750 kV
500 kV
IVAIPORÃ
MÁXIMO INTERCÂMBIO SE (MW)
Interligações LTs 525 kV
LNA-Assis e BAT-Ibiúna
LIMITES DE TRANSFERÊNCIA S/SE
PATAMAR CARGARECEBIMENTO SE
PESADA9450
MÉDIA9450
LEVE9250
MÁXIMO INTERCÂMBIO SUL (MW)
PATAMAR CARGAFORNECIMENTO (*)RECEBIMENTO (*)
PESADA4700 (1)6000 (3)
MÉDIA4600 (1)5700 (4)
LEVE5000 (2)5600 (5)
(*) Fator Limitante (3) Nível tensão no norte do Paraná
(1) Estabilidade do SIN (4) Carregamento (MW) LT 230 kV LNA-APA
(2) LT 230 kV CCO-UMB / Estabilidade do SIN (5) Carregamento (MW) LT 230 kV CCO-UMB
~
Área para Número do Slide
PREVISÃO CLIMÁTICA
Fonte: CPTEC/INPE
A menor temperatura da água do oceano no centro-leste do Pacífico caracteriza a condição de La-Niña com intensidade moderada. Esta condição deverá se estender até meados do outono de 2008.
Área para Número do Slide
EFEITOS GLOBAIS
Fonte: CPTEC/INPE
Área para Número do Slide
PREVISÃO CLIMÁTICA
Fonte: CPTEC/INPE
Área para Número do Slide
PREVISÃO CLIMÁTICA
Fonte: SIMEPAR
Área para Número do Slide
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO SUDESTE
CAR 2008 / 2009
75,1% Valor esperado – PMO Mar/08 Rev. 02
Área para Número do Slide
Gráfico2
janjanjan0.68511117911.10989207020.778
fevfevfev0.84417065941.08471578330.351
marmarmar1.08020760261.12704971940.36
abrabrabr0.56147596340.57235900221.04
maimaimai0.49948034050.4569640209
junjunjun0.47324688970.7605287688
juljuljul0.82793655170.6577592867
agoagoago0.53156789220.3308526209
setsetset2.02088093160.2441720996
outoutout1.51273146390.4202403212
novnovnov0.72688615530.8035795254
dezdezdez0.66817187772.2499899368
&A
Page &P
PREVPMO
4º pior fev
2º pior mar
EAR 2000
EAR 2003
EAR 2005
ENA 2000
ENA 2003
ENA 2005
EAR (% do MAX)
ENA (% da MLT)
EARs e ENAs da Região Sul
47.5
85.4
68.2
47.3
89.3
50.7
52.3
87.9
34.6
40
72.8
42.5
30.2
58.8
64
29.6
60.9
93
44.1
60.2
90.7
47
47.1
83.9
85.7
33.6
95.2
96.2
33.5
90.9
92.9
41.2
87.6
89.4
81
78.8
Gráfico1
janjanjan71.278.45350.1
fevfevfev78.584.56365.7
marmarmar85.486.76775.1
abrabrabr87.386.768
maimaimai84.685.368
junjunjun7982.665
juljuljul70.379.661
agoagoago59.272.156
setsetset49.661.948
outoutout45.251.743
novnovnov42.448.237
dezdezdez53.346.239
&A
Page &P
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
CAR 2008/2009
2008
Armazenamentos no final do mês
EAR (%)
61.6
47.7
75.7
72.8
66.8
78.8
76.9
76.2
85.9
78.9
81.1
85.8
76.2
82.9
85.4
73
82.6
82.6
67.3
80.6
78.3
59.3
74.7
70.1
50.2
66.1
65.3
40.9
62
60.4
36.2
59.4
59.3
37.4
64.7
67.1
Plan1
EAR 2000EAR 2003EAR 2005CAR (EAR)
EAR200020012002200320042005200620072008CAR 2006CAR 2008/2009difCAR 2005
jan29.331.447.061.647.775.771.278.450.133.053.020.020.0
fev45.033.463.272.866.878.878.584.565.735.063.028.028.0
mar58.534.570.176.976.285.985.486.775.138.067.029.029.0
abr59.432.269.178.981.185.887.386.737.068.031.031.0
mai54.129.768.576.282.985.484.685.338.068.030.030.0
jun47.328.665.873.082.682.679.082.636.065.029.029.024.9
jul40.226.861.767.380.678.370.379.632.061.029.029.024.9
ago32.423.455.659.374.770.159.272.127.056.029.029.0
set30.820.651.350.266.165.349.661.920.048.028.028.0
out23.021.343.140.962.060.445.251.714.043.029.029.0
nov22.123.040.736.259.459.342.448.210.037.027.027.0
dez28.532.343.737.464.767.153.346.210.039.029.029.0
ENA 2000ENA 2003ENA 2005
ENA200020012002200320042005
jan68.5%153.5%98.7%111.0%128.2%77.8%
fev84.4%233.8%69.5%108.5%57.6%35.1%
mar108.0%141.1%61.2%112.7%48.6%36.0%
abr56.1%107.0%52.9%57.2%58.7%104.0%
mai49.9%106.6%107.8%45.7%108.0%
jun47.3%95.0%92.4%76.1%88.7%
jul82.8%108.3%59.3%65.8%116.5%
ago53.2%75.9%113.2%33.1%46.5%
set202.1%70.9%126.1%24.4%65.7%
out151.3%176.7%137.9%42.0%112.9%
nov72.7%75.6%186.5%80.4%147.6%
dez66.8%99.2%221.2%225.0%80.5%
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO SUDESTE
CAR 2008 / 2009
75,1% Valor esperado – PMO Mar/08 Rev. 02
Estudo Prospectivo do ONS
ENA (%MLT)
abrmaijunjulagosetoutnov
11099991009910496100
Área para Número do Slide
Gráfico2
janjanjan0.68511117911.10989207020.778
fevfevfev0.84417065941.08471578330.351
marmarmar1.08020760261.12704971940.36
abrabrabr0.56147596340.57235900221.04
maimaimai0.49948034050.4569640209
junjunjun0.47324688970.7605287688
juljuljul0.82793655170.6577592867
agoagoago0.53156789220.3308526209
setsetset2.02088093160.2441720996
outoutout1.51273146390.4202403212
novnovnov0.72688615530.8035795254
dezdezdez0.66817187772.2499899368
&A
Page &P
PREVPMO
4º pior fev
2º pior mar
EAR 2000
EAR 2003
EAR 2005
ENA 2000
ENA 2003
ENA 2005
EAR (% do MAX)
ENA (% da MLT)
EARs e ENAs da Região Sul
47.5
85.4
68.2
47.3
89.3
50.7
52.3
87.9
34.6
40
72.8
42.5
30.2
58.8
64
29.6
60.9
93
44.1
60.2
90.7
47
47.1
83.9
85.7
33.6
95.2
96.2
33.5
90.9
92.9
41.2
87.6
89.4
81
78.8
Gráfico1
janjanjan71.278.45350.1
fevfevfev78.584.56365.7
marmarmar85.486.76775.1
abrabrabr87.386.76881.9
maimaimai84.685.36880.3
junjunjun7982.66576
juljuljul70.379.66170.7
agoagoago59.272.15663.8
setsetset49.661.94857.5
outoutout45.251.74352
novnovnov42.448.23750.3
dezdezdez53.346.239
&A
Page &P
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
CAR 2008/2009
2008
Armazenamentos no final do mês
EAR (%)
61.6
47.7
75.7
72.8
66.8
78.8
76.9
76.2
85.9
78.9
81.1
85.8
76.2
82.9
85.4
73
82.6
82.6
67.3
80.6
78.3
59.3
74.7
70.1
50.2
66.1
65.3
40.9
62
60.4
36.2
59.4
59.3
37.4
64.7
67.1
Plan1
EAR 2000EAR 2003EAR 2005CAR (EAR)
EAR200020012002200320042005200620072008CAR 2006CAR 2008/2009difCAR 2005
jan29.331.447.061.647.775.771.278.450.133.053.020.020.0
fev45.033.463.272.866.878.878.584.565.735.063.028.028.0
mar58.534.570.176.976.285.985.486.775.138.067.029.029.0
abr59.432.269.178.981.185.887.386.781.937.068.031.031.0
mai54.129.768.576.282.985.484.685.380.338.068.030.030.0
jun47.328.665.873.082.682.679.082.676.036.065.029.029.024.9
jul40.226.861.767.380.678.370.379.670.732.061.029.029.024.9
ago32.423.455.659.374.770.159.272.163.827.056.029.029.0
set30.820.651.350.266.165.349.661.957.520.048.028.028.0
out23.021.343.140.962.060.445.251.752.014.043.029.029.0
nov22.123.040.736.259.459.342.448.250.310.037.027.027.0
dez28.532.343.737.464.767.153.346.210.039.029.029.0
ENA 2000ENA 2003ENA 2005
ENA200020012002200320042005
jan68.5%153.5%98.7%111.0%128.2%77.8%
fev84.4%233.8%69.5%108.5%57.6%35.1%
mar108.0%141.1%61.2%112.7%48.6%36.0%
abr56.1%107.0%52.9%57.2%58.7%104.0%
mai49.9%106.6%107.8%45.7%108.0%
jun47.3%95.0%92.4%76.1%88.7%
jul82.8%108.3%59.3%65.8%116.5%
ago53.2%75.9%113.2%33.1%46.5%
set202.1%70.9%126.1%24.4%65.7%
out151.3%176.7%137.9%42.0%112.9%
nov72.7%75.6%186.5%80.4%147.6%
dez66.8%99.2%221.2%225.0%80.5%
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO SUDESTE
Área para Número do Slide
Gráf1
3902239022
3902339023
3902439024
3902539025
3902639026
3902739027
3902839028
3902939029
3903039030
3903139031
3903239032
3903339033
3903439034
3903539035
3903639036
3903739037
3903839038
3903939039
3904039040
3904139041
3904239042
3904339043
3904439044
3904539045
3904639046
3904739047
3904839048
3904939049
3905039050
3905139051
3905239052
3905339053
3905439054
3905539055
3905639056
3905739057
3905839058
3905939059
3906039060
3906139061
3906239062
3906339063
3906439064
3906539065
3906639066
3906739067
3906839068
3906939069
3907039070
3907139071
3907239072
3907339073
3907439074
3907539075
3907639076
3907739077
3907839078
3907939079
3908039080
3908139081
3908239082
3908339083
3908439084
3908539085
3908639086
3908739087
3908839088
3908939089
3909039090
3909139091
3909239092
3909339093
3909439094
3909539095
3909639096
3909739097
3909839098
3909939099
3910039100
3910139101
3910239102
3910339103
3910439104
3910539105
3910639106
3910739107
3910839108
3910939109
3911039110
3911139111
3911239112
3911339113
3911439114
3911539115
3911639116
3911739117
3911839118
3911939119
3912039120
3912139121
3912239122
3912339123
3912439124
3912539125
3912639126
3912739127
3912839128
3912939129
3913039130
3913139131
3913239132
3913339133
3913439134
3913539135
3913639136
3913739137
3913839138
3913939139
3914039140
3914139141
3914239142
3914339143
3914439144
3914539145
3914639146
3914739147
3914839148
3914939149
3915039150
3915139151
3915239152
3915339153
3915439154
3915539155
70.8
2006-2007
2007-2008
EAR (%)
44.88
51.4
44.73
51.3
44.56
51.1
44.47
51.3
44.54
51.1
44.47
51
44.36
50.9
44.35
50.8
44.41
50.6
44.51
50.5
44.6
50.5
44.67
50.4
44.54
50.4
44.36
50.3
44.17
50.4
43.91
50.4
43.67
50.4
43.38
50.3
43.19
50.2
42.99
50
42.85
49.9
42.69
49.7
42.52
49.5
42.3
49.3
42.1
49.2
42.08
49
42.05
48.8
42.12
48.7
42.22
48.5
42.38
48.2
42.6
48
42.78
47.7
42.99
47.4
43
47.1
43.2
46.7
43.24
46.4
43.47
46.1
43.69
46
43.94
46
44.32
45.8
44.5
45.7
45.01
45.5
45.43
45.6
45.84
45.5
46.28
45.5
47.02
45.6
47.65
45.5
48.14
45.3
48.62
45.3
49.12
45.6
49.5
45.9
49.9
46.2
50.3
46.5
50.5
46.8
51
47
51.2
47.1
51.6
46.9
52
46.8
52.4
46.6
52.9
46.4
53.3
46.2
54.1
46
54.9
45.8
55.7
45.5
55.7
45.2
57.7
44.9
58.9
44.9
60.2
44.8
61.2
44.7
61.9
44.6
62.6
44.5
63.2
44.4
63.8
44.4
64.6
44.7
65.7
44.8
66.6
44.8
67.6
44.8
69.2
44.8
69.5
44.8
70.4
44.9
71.1
45.2
71.9
45.5
72.5
46.1
72.8
46.5
73.7
46.8
74.3
47.1
74.7
47.5
75.1
48.1
75.9
48.5
76.7
49.3
77.5
50.1
78.4
50.8
79.1
51.5
79.7
52
80.2
52.8
80.6
53.6
81.1
54.5
81.5
55.4
82.1
56.3
82.6
57.1
83
57.8
83.2
58.4
83.4
58.9
83.7
59
83.9
59.4
84
59.8
84.2
60.1
84.3
60.4
84.4
60.7
84.4
61
84.6
61.2
84.7
61.5
84.9
61.9
84.9
62.2
84.9
62.8
84.8
63.5
84.8
63.9
84.6
64.5
84.6
64.9
84.5
65.2
84.5
65.7
84.4
66.2
84.3
66.7
84.2
67
84
67.4
83.9
67.7
83.7
68
83.7
68.1
83.7
68.4
83.6
68.8
83.7
69.1
83.7
69.4
83.8
69.7
84
70.1
Plan1
dataENA (MWmed)EAR (%)dataENA (MWmed)EAR (%)
11/1/062036444.8811/1/071662751.4
11/2/061990544.7311/2/071635751.3
11/3/062294244.5611/3/071677551.1
11/4/062679044.4711/4/071923451.3
11/5/062794144.5411/5/071901351.1
11/6/063052744.4711/6/072060351
11/7/063130944.3611/7/072182950.9
11/8/063211444.3511/8/072177550.8
11/9/063401944.4111/9/072236350.6
11/10/063680144.5111/10/072278650.5
11/11/063487944.611/11/072411950.5
11/12/062975044.6711/12/072563250.4
11/13/063039844.5411/13/072819950.4
11/14/062916744.3611/14/073097950.3
11/15/062575244.1711/15/073165750.4
11/16/062449643.9111/16/073049850.4
11/17/062559743.6711/17/072833650.4
11/18/062333743.3811/18/072628550.3
11/19/062311943.1911/19/072516050.2
11/20/062468942.9911/20/072442650
11/21/062675342.8511/21/072423349.9
11/22/062419242.6911/22/072381449.7
11/23/062565742.5211/23/072223649.5
11/24/062661042.311/24/072156049.3
11/25/062661642.111/25/072096749.2
11/26/062753042.0811/26/072202149
11/27/063176042.0511/27/072250348.8
11/28/063547642.1211/28/072233248.7
11/29/063633242.2211/29/072174648.5
11/30/064240342.3811/30/072102648.2
12/1/064507342.612/1/071992748
12/2/064674742.7812/2/071887247.7
12/3/064458542.9912/3/071831647.4
12/4/06423534312/4/071833447.1
12/5/063941343.212/5/071889946.7
12/6/064145443.2412/6/071893546.4
12/7/064404243.4712/7/071969146.1
12/8/062943043.6912/8/072010746
12/9/064544143.9412/9/072110146
12/10/064754644.3212/10/072313245.8
12/11/064841844.512/11/072618945.7
12/12/065291545.0112/12/072870945.5
12/13/065658745.4312/13/072971645.6
12/14/065750645.8412/14/073040845.5
12/15/065963246.2812/15/073082045.5
12/16/065807947.0212/16/073126345.6
12/17/066181847.6512/17/073145145.5
12/18/065970248.1412/18/073101545.3
12/19/066264448.6212/19/073141145.3
12/20/066162249.1212/20/073451345.6
12/21/066126349.512/21/073806845.9
12/22/066102149.912/22/074024146.2
12/23/066064550.312/23/074153246.5
12/24/065993350.512/24/074156446.8
12/25/06586495112/25/074148747
12/26/064644451.212/26/074101547.1
12/27/065856851.612/27/073927346.9
12/28/06574145212/28/073742346.8
12/29/065887352.412/29/073501846.6
12/30/065889252.912/30/073233646.4
12/31/065831253.312/31/073030746.2
1/1/076035154.11/1/082817546
1/2/076361954.91/2/082676645.8
1/3/076748955.71/3/082526345.5
1/4/077158055.71/4/082422445.2
1/5/077726057.71/5/082331344.9
1/6/078180258.91/6/082281744.9
1/7/078732960.21/7/082427044.8
1/8/079005061.21/8/082602744.7
1/9/079205561.91/9/082634144.6
1/10/079233162.61/10/082699344.5
1/11/079153663.21/11/082815544.4
1/12/079084263.81/12/082960944.4
1/13/079371664.61/13/083066844.7
1/14/079579765.71/14/083303944.8
1/15/079708766.61/15/083390844.8
1/16/0710143167.61/16/083350144.8
1/17/0710197369.21/17/083348144.8
1/18/0710197669.51/18/083383244.8
1/19/0710046370.41/19/083419144.9
1/20/0710027171.11/20/083543745.2
1/21/079993671.91/21/083816945.5
1/22/079942672.51/22/084234146.1
1/23/079563472.81/23/084515846.5
1/24/079789673.71/24/084745946.8
1/25/079720574.31/25/084874947.1
1/26/079575674.71/26/084936647.5
1/27/079489875.11/27/085022748.1
1/28/079460575.91/28/085436648.5
1/29/079960976.71/29/085922149.3
1/30/0710493377.51/30/086374350.1
1/31/0710314578.41/31/086819950.8
2/1/0710204479.12/1/086756451.5
2/2/0710135979.72/2/086569052
2/3/0710122180.22/3/086677652.8
2/4/0710088980.62/4/086894253.6
2/5/0710186681.12/5/087244054.5
2/6/0710183881.52/6/087408255.4
2/7/0710387682.12/7/087537556.3
2/8/0710489282.62/8/087542257.1
2/9/0799148832/9/087328157.8
2/10/079408583.22/10/087083858.4
2/11/079060783.42/11/086882258.9
2/12/079218583.72/12/086545459
2/13/079050083.92/13/086213259.4
2/14/0789325842/14/086041059.8
2/15/078826384.22/15/085863360.1
2/16/078576484.32/16/085572660.4
2/17/078289784.42/17/085275760.7
2/18/078030784.42/18/085102361
2/19/078077984.62/19/085023061.2
2/20/078097184.72/20/084941361.5
2/21/077982484.92/21/084962461.9
2/22/077776184.92/22/085006262.2
2/23/077537484.92/23/085276562.8
2/24/077090784.82/24/085493063.5
2/25/076751984.82/25/085627263.9
2/26/076407884.62/26/085859264.5
2/27/076480584.62/27/085853564.9
2/28/076412984.52/28/085861465.2
3/1/076258584.52/29/085989865.7
3/2/076085384.43/1/086165866.2
3/3/075877884.33/2/086234366.7
3/4/075688984.23/3/086168467
3/5/0755138843/4/086193267.4
3/6/075244383.93/5/086017667.7
3/7/075094383.73/6/085720968
3/8/074962083.73/7/085424068.1
3/9/074925983.73/8/085435468.4
3/10/074816383.63/9/085311568.8
3/11/074539883.73/10/085412869.1
3/12/074408083.73/11/085386669.4
3/13/074659283.83/12/085345569.7
3/14/0741881843/13/085421070.1
3/14/085909370.8
Plan1
2006-2007
2007-2008
ENA (MWmed)
Plan2
2006-2007
2007-2008
EAR (%)
Plan3
ENERGIA NAT. AFLUENTE DA REGIÃO SUDESTE
Área para Número do Slide
Gráf2
3902239022
3902339023
3902439024
3902539025
3902639026
3902739027
3902839028
3902939029
3903039030
3903139031
3903239032
3903339033
3903439034
3903539035
3903639036
3903739037
3903839038
3903939039
3904039040
3904139041
3904239042
3904339043
3904439044
3904539045
3904639046
3904739047
3904839048
3904939049
3905039050
3905139051
3905239052
3905339053
3905439054
3905539055
3905639056
3905739057
3905839058
3905939059
3906039060
3906139061
3906239062
3906339063
3906439064
3906539065
3906639066
3906739067
3906839068
3906939069
3907039070
3907139071
3907239072
3907339073
3907439074
3907539075
3907639076
3907739077
3907839078
3907939079
3908039080
3908139081
3908239082
3908339083
3908439084
3908539085
3908639086
3908739087
3908839088
3908939089
3909039090
3909139091
3909239092
3909339093
3909439094
3909539095
3909639096
3909739097
3909839098
3909939099
3910039100
3910139101
3910239102
3910339103
3910439104
3910539105
3910639106
3910739107
3910839108
3910939109
3911039110
3911139111
3911239112
3911339113
3911439114
3911539115
3911639116
3911739117
3911839118
3911939119
3912039120
3912139121
3912239122
3912339123
3912439124
3912539125
3912639126
3912739127
3912839128
3912939129
3913039130
3913139131
3913239132
3913339133
3913439134
3913539135
3913639136
3913739137
3913839138
3913939139
3914039140
3914139141
3914239142
3914339143
3914439144
3914539145
3914639146
3914739147
3914839148
3914939149
3915039150
3915139151
3915239152
3915339153
3915439154
3915539155
59093
2006-2007
2007-2008
ENA (MWmed)
20364
16627
19905
16357
22942
16775
26790
19234
27941
19013
30527
20603
31309
21829
32114
21775
34019
22363
36801
22786
34879
24119
29750
25632
30398
28199
29167
30979
25752
31657
24496
30498
25597
28336
23337
26285
23119
25160
24689
24426
26753
24233
24192
23814
25657
22236
26610
21560
26616
20967
27530
22021
31760
22503
35476
22332
36332
21746
42403
21026
45073
19927
46747
18872
44585
18316
42353
18334
39413
18899
41454
18935
44042
19691
29430
20107
45441
21101
47546
23132
48418
26189
52915
28709
56587
29716
57506
30408
59632
30820
58079
31263
61818
31451
59702
31015
62644
31411
61622
34513
61263
38068
61021
40241
60645
41532
59933
41564
58649
41487
46444
41015
58568
39273
57414
37423
58873
35018
58892
32336
58312
30307
60351
28175
63619
26766
67489
25263
71580
24224
77260
23313
81802
22817
87329
24270
90050
26027
92055
26341
92331
26993
91536
28155
90842
29609
93716
30668
95797
33039
97087
33908
101431
33501
101973
33481
101976
33832
100463
34191
100271
35437
99936
38169
99426
42341
95634
45158
97896
47459
97205
48749
95756
49366
94898
50227
94605
54366
99609
59221
104933
63743
103145
68199
102044
67564
101359
65690
101221
66776
100889
68942
101866
72440
101838
74082
103876
75375
104892
75422
99148
73281
94085
70838
90607
68822
92185
65454
90500
62132
89325
60410
88263
58633
85764
55726
82897
52757
80307
51023
80779
50230
80971
49413
79824
49624
77761
50062
75374
52765
70907
54930
67519
56272
64078
58592
64805
58535
64129
58614
62585
59898
60853
61658
58778
62343
56889
61684
55138
61932
52443
60176
50943
57209
49620
54240
49259
54354
48163
53115
45398
54128
44080
53866
46592
53455
41881
54210
Plan1
dataENA (MWmed)EAR (%)dataENA (MWmed)EAR (%)
11/1/062036444.8811/1/071662751.4
11/2/061990544.7311/2/071635751.3
11/3/062294244.5611/3/071677551.1
11/4/062679044.4711/4/071923451.3
11/5/062794144.5411/5/071901351.1
11/6/063052744.4711/6/072060351
11/7/063130944.3611/7/072182950.9
11/8/063211444.3511/8/072177550.8
11/9/063401944.4111/9/072236350.6
11/10/063680144.5111/10/072278650.5
11/11/063487944.611/11/072411950.5
11/12/062975044.6711/12/072563250.4
11/13/063039844.5411/13/072819950.4
11/14/062916744.3611/14/073097950.3
11/15/062575244.1711/15/073165750.4
11/16/062449643.9111/16/073049850.4
11/17/062559743.6711/17/072833650.4
11/18/062333743.3811/18/072628550.3
11/19/062311943.1911/19/072516050.2
11/20/062468942.9911/20/072442650
11/21/062675342.8511/21/072423349.9
11/22/062419242.6911/22/072381449.7
11/23/062565742.5211/23/072223649.5
11/24/062661042.311/24/072156049.3
11/25/062661642.111/25/072096749.2
11/26/062753042.0811/26/072202149
11/27/063176042.0511/27/072250348.8
11/28/063547642.1211/28/072233248.7
11/29/063633242.2211/29/072174648.5
11/30/064240342.3811/30/072102648.2
12/1/064507342.612/1/071992748
12/2/064674742.7812/2/071887247.7
12/3/064458542.9912/3/071831647.4
12/4/06423534312/4/071833447.1
12/5/063941343.212/5/071889946.7
12/6/064145443.2412/6/071893546.4
12/7/064404243.4712/7/071969146.1
12/8/062943043.6912/8/072010746
12/9/064544143.9412/9/072110146
12/10/064754644.3212/10/072313245.8
12/11/064841844.512/11/072618945.7
12/12/065291545.0112/12/072870945.5
12/13/065658745.4312/13/072971645.6
12/14/065750645.8412/14/073040845.5
12/15/065963246.2812/15/073082045.5
12/16/065807947.0212/16/073126345.6
12/17/066181847.6512/17/073145145.5
12/18/065970248.1412/18/073101545.3
12/19/066264448.6212/19/073141145.3
12/20/066162249.1212/20/073451345.6
12/21/066126349.512/21/073806845.9
12/22/066102149.912/22/074024146.2
12/23/066064550.312/23/074153246.5
12/24/065993350.512/24/074156446.8
12/25/06586495112/25/074148747
12/26/064644451.212/26/074101547.1
12/27/065856851.612/27/073927346.9
12/28/06574145212/28/073742346.8
12/29/065887352.412/29/073501846.6
12/30/065889252.912/30/073233646.4
12/31/065831253.312/31/073030746.2
1/1/076035154.11/1/082817546
1/2/076361954.91/2/082676645.8
1/3/076748955.71/3/082526345.5
1/4/077158055.71/4/082422445.2
1/5/077726057.71/5/082331344.9
1/6/078180258.91/6/082281744.9
1/7/078732960.21/7/082427044.8
1/8/079005061.21/8/082602744.7
1/9/079205561.91/9/082634144.6
1/10/079233162.61/10/082699344.5
1/11/079153663.21/11/082815544.4
1/12/079084263.81/12/082960944.4
1/13/079371664.61/13/083066844.7
1/14/079579765.71/14/083303944.8
1/15/079708766.61/15/083390844.8
1/16/0710143167.61/16/083350144.8
1/17/0710197369.21/17/083348144.8
1/18/0710197669.51/18/083383244.8
1/19/0710046370.41/19/083419144.9
1/20/0710027171.11/20/083543745.2
1/21/079993671.91/21/083816945.5
1/22/079942672.51/22/084234146.1
1/23/079563472.81/23/084515846.5
1/24/079789673.71/24/084745946.8
1/25/079720574.31/25/084874947.1
1/26/079575674.71/26/084936647.5
1/27/079489875.11/27/085022748.1
1/28/079460575.91/28/085436648.5
1/29/079960976.71/29/085922149.3
1/30/0710493377.51/30/086374350.1
1/31/0710314578.41/31/086819950.8
2/1/0710204479.12/1/086756451.5
2/2/0710135979.72/2/086569052
2/3/0710122180.22/3/086677652.8
2/4/0710088980.62/4/086894253.6
2/5/0710186681.12/5/087244054.5
2/6/0710183881.52/6/087408255.4
2/7/0710387682.12/7/087537556.3
2/8/0710489282.62/8/087542257.1
2/9/0799148832/9/087328157.8
2/10/079408583.22/10/087083858.4
2/11/079060783.42/11/086882258.9
2/12/079218583.72/12/086545459
2/13/079050083.92/13/086213259.4
2/14/0789325842/14/086041059.8
2/15/078826384.22/15/085863360.1
2/16/078576484.32/16/085572660.4
2/17/078289784.42/17/085275760.7
2/18/078030784.42/18/085102361
2/19/078077984.62/19/085023061.2
2/20/078097184.72/20/084941361.5
2/21/077982484.92/21/084962461.9
2/22/077776184.92/22/085006262.2
2/23/077537484.92/23/085276562.8
2/24/077090784.82/24/085493063.5
2/25/076751984.82/25/085627263.9
2/26/076407884.62/26/085859264.5
2/27/076480584.62/27/085853564.9
2/28/076412984.52/28/085861465.2
3/1/076258584.52/29/085989865.7
3/2/076085384.43/1/086165866.2
3/3/075877884.33/2/086234366.7
3/4/075688984.23/3/086168467
3/5/0755138843/4/086193267.4
3/6/075244383.93/5/086017667.7
3/7/075094383.73/6/085720968
3/8/074962083.73/7/085424068.1
3/9/074925983.73/8/085435468.4
3/10/074816383.63/9/085311568.8
3/11/074539883.73/10/085412869.1
3/12/074408083.73/11/085386669.4
3/13/074659283.83/12/085345569.7
3/14/0741881843/13/085421070.1
3/14/085909370.8
Plan1
2006-2007
2007-2008
ENA (MWmed)
Plan2
2006-2007
2007-2008
EAR (%)
Plan3
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO SUL
CAR 2008 / 2009
43,3% Valor esperado – PMO Mar/08 Rev. 02
Área para Número do Slide
Gráfico2
janjanjan0.68511117911.10989207020.778
fevfevfev0.84417065941.08471578330.351
marmarmar1.08020760261.12704971940.36
abrabrabr0.56147596340.57235900221.04
maimaimai0.49948034050.4569640209
junjunjun0.47324688970.7605287688
juljuljul0.82793655170.6577592867
agoagoago0.53156789220.3308526209
setsetset2.02088093160.2441720996
outoutout1.51273146390.4202403212
novnovnov0.72688615530.8035795254
dezdezdez0.66817187772.2499899368
&A
Page &P
PREVPMO
4º pior fev
2º pior mar
EAR 2000
EAR 2003
EAR 2005
ENA 2000
ENA 2003
ENA 2005
EAR (% do MAX)
ENA (% da MLT)
EARs e ENAs da Região Sul
47.5
85.4
68.2
47.3
89.3
50.7
52.3
87.9
34.6
40
72.8
42.5
30.2
58.8
64
29.6
60.9
93
44.1
60.2
90.7
47
47.1
83.9
85.7
33.6
95.2
96.2
33.5
90.9
92.9
41.2
87.6
89.4
81
78.8
Gráfico1
janjanjan71.963.11863.8
fevfevfev6369.81947.8
marmarmar48.980.41943.3
abrabrabr41.282.616
maimaimai31.189.213
junjunjun29.876.713
juljuljul31.579.813
agoagoago38.661.913
setsetset42.955.813
outoutout40.759.816
novnovnov48.275.520
dezdezdez55.272.722
&A
Page &P
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
CAR 2008
2008
Armazenamentos no final do mês
EAR (%)
55,3 **
85.4
81.8
68.2
89.3
73
50.7
87.9
57.1
34.6
72.8
48.5
42.5
58.8
60.9
64
60.9
75.1
93
60.2
86.7
90.7
47.1
68.2
83.9
33.6
64.9
95.2
33.5
86.5
90.9
41.2
85.9
87.6
81
74.2
78.8
Plan1
EAR 2000EAR 2003EAR 2005CAR (EAR)
EAR200020012002200320042005200620072008LICAR 2006CAR 2008difCAR 2005
jan47.598.692.585.481.868.271.963.163.819.018.0-1.0-1.0
fev47.397.487.989.373.050.763.069.847.820.019.0-1.0-1.0
mar52.391.776.087.957.134.648.980.443.319.019.00.00.0
abr40.082.860.172.848.542.541.282.616.016.00.00.0
mai30.282.774.658.860.964.031.189.213.013.00.00.0
jun29.692.867.560.975.193.029.876.713.013.00.00.024.9
jul44.196.853.960.286.790.731.579.813.013.00.00.024.9
ago47.084.859.847.168.283.938.661.913.013.00.00.0
set85.777.079.433.664.995.242.955.813.013.00.00.0
out96.296.595.233.586.590.940.759.813.016.03.03.0
nov92.987.096.241.285.987.648.275.513.020.07.07.0
dez89.482.797.381.074.278.855.272.713.022.09.09.0
ENA 2000ENA 2003ENA 2005
ENA200020012002200320042005
jan68.5%153.5%98.7%111.0%128.2%77.8%
fev84.4%233.8%69.5%108.5%57.6%35.1%
mar108.0%141.1%61.2%112.7%48.6%36.0%
abr56.1%107.0%52.9%57.2%58.7%104.0%
mai49.9%106.6%107.8%45.7%108.0%
jun47.3%95.0%92.4%76.1%88.7%
jul82.8%108.3%59.3%65.8%116.5%
ago53.2%75.9%113.2%33.1%46.5%
set202.1%70.9%126.1%24.4%65.7%
out151.3%176.7%137.9%42.0%112.9%
nov72.7%75.6%186.5%80.4%147.6%
dez66.8%99.2%221.2%225.0%80.5%
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO SUL
CAR 2008 / 2009
43,3% Valor esperado – PMO Mar/08 Rev. 02
Estudo Prospectivo do ONS
ENA (%MLT)
abrmaijunjulagosetoutnov
8589908690939494
Área para Número do Slide
Gráfico2
janjanjan0.68511117911.10989207020.778
fevfevfev0.84417065941.08471578330.351
marmarmar1.08020760261.12704971940.36
abrabrabr0.56147596340.57235900221.04
maimaimai0.49948034050.4569640209
junjunjun0.47324688970.7605287688
juljuljul0.82793655170.6577592867
agoagoago0.53156789220.3308526209
setsetset2.02088093160.2441720996
outoutout1.51273146390.4202403212
novnovnov0.72688615530.8035795254
dezdezdez0.66817187772.2499899368
&A
Page &P
PREVPMO
4º pior fev
2º pior mar
EAR 2000
EAR 2003
EAR 2005
ENA 2000
ENA 2003
ENA 2005
EAR (% do MAX)
ENA (% da MLT)
EARs e ENAs da Região Sul
47.5
85.4
68.2
47.3
89.3
50.7
52.3
87.9
34.6
40
72.8
42.5
30.2
58.8
64
29.6
60.9
93
44.1
60.2
90.7
47
47.1
83.9
85.7
33.6
95.2
96.2
33.5
90.9
92.9
41.2
87.6
89.4
81
78.8
Gráfico1
janjanjan71.963.11863.8
fevfevfev6369.81947.8
marmarmar48.980.41943.3
abrabrabr41.282.61652.2
maimaimai31.189.21360.1
junjunjun29.876.71360.3
juljuljul31.579.81358.1
agoagoago38.661.91351.7
setsetset42.955.81356.1
outoutout40.759.81668.5
novnovnov48.275.52067.6
dezdezdez55.272.722
&A
Page &P
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
CAR 2008
2008
Armazenamentos no final do mês
EAR (%)
55,3 **
85.4
81.8
68.2
89.3
73
50.7
87.9
57.1
34.6
72.8
48.5
42.5
58.8
60.9
64
60.9
75.1
93
60.2
86.7
90.7
47.1
68.2
83.9
33.6
64.9
95.2
33.5
86.5
90.9
41.2
85.9
87.6
81
74.2
78.8
Plan1
EAR 2000EAR 2003EAR 2005CAR (EAR)
EAR200020012002200320042005200620072008LICAR 2006CAR 2008difCAR 2005
jan47.598.692.585.481.868.271.963.163.819.018.0-1.0-1.0
fev47.397.487.989.373.050.763.069.847.820.019.0-1.0-1.0
mar52.391.776.087.957.134.648.980.443.319.019.00.00.0
abr40.082.860.172.848.542.541.282.652.216.016.00.00.0
mai30.282.774.658.860.964.031.189.260.113.013.00.00.0
jun29.692.867.560.975.193.029.876.760.313.013.00.00.024.9
jul44.196.853.960.286.790.731.579.858.113.013.00.00.024.9
ago47.084.859.847.168.283.938.661.951.713.013.00.00.0
set85.777.079.433.664.995.242.955.856.113.013.00.00.0
out96.296.595.233.586.590.940.759.868.513.016.03.03.0
nov92.987.096.241.285.987.648.275.567.613.020.07.07.0
dez89.482.797.381.074.278.855.272.713.022.09.09.0
ENA 2000ENA 2003ENA 2005
ENA200020012002200320042005
jan68.5%153.5%98.7%111.0%128.2%77.8%
fev84.4%233.8%69.5%108.5%57.6%35.1%
mar108.0%141.1%61.2%112.7%48.6%36.0%
abr56.1%107.0%52.9%57.2%58.7%104.0%
mai49.9%106.6%107.8%45.7%108.0%
jun47.3%95.0%92.4%76.1%88.7%
jul82.8%108.3%59.3%65.8%116.5%
ago53.2%75.9%113.2%33.1%46.5%
set202.1%70.9%126.1%24.4%65.7%
out151.3%176.7%137.9%42.0%112.9%
nov72.7%75.6%186.5%80.4%147.6%
dez66.8%99.2%221.2%225.0%80.5%
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO NORDESTE
CAR 2008 / 2009
60,3% Valor esperado – PMO Mar/08 Rev. 02
Área para Número do Slide
Gráfico2
janjanjan0.68511117911.10989207020.778
fevfevfev0.84417065941.08471578330.351
marmarmar1.08020760261.12704971940.36
abrabrabr0.56147596340.57235900221.04
maimaimai0.49948034050.4569640209
junjunjun0.47324688970.7605287688
juljuljul0.82793655170.6577592867
agoagoago0.53156789220.3308526209
setsetset2.02088093160.2441720996
outoutout1.51273146390.4202403212
novnovnov0.72688615530.8035795254
dezdezdez0.66817187772.2499899368
&A
Page &P
PREVPMO
4º pior fev
2º pior mar
EAR 2000
EAR 2003
EAR 2005
ENA 2000
ENA 2003
ENA 2005
EAR (% do MAX)
ENA (% da MLT)
EARs e ENAs da Região Sul
47.5
85.4
68.2
47.3
89.3
50.7
52.3
87.9
34.6
40
72.8
42.5
30.2
58.8
64
29.6
60.9
93
44.1
60.2
90.7
47
47.1
83.9
85.7
33.6
95.2
96.2
33.5
90.9
92.9
41.2
87.6
89.4
81
78.8
Gráfico1
janjanjan77.477.5101030
fevfevfev77.984.6222348.3
marmarmar89.794.8393960.3
abrabrabr98.395.552
maimaimai95.692.953
junjunjun89.883.546
juljuljul80.773.438
agoagoago7165.630
setsetset60.454.527
outoutout52.340.222
novnovnov48.729.422
dezdezdez61.926.630
&A
Page &P
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Armazenamentos no final do mês
EAR (%)
35
34
71.5
45.8
54.5
82.3
49.1
83.2
92
53
97.4
97.1
49.3
96
95.7
45.2
95.1
91.3
40
90.4
84.6
34.1
83.2
76.7
27.8
73.3
67.5
19
64
57.2
13.7
56.4
53
14.2
58.9
67.1
Plan1
EAR 2000EAR 2003EAR 2005CAR (EAR)
EAR200020012002200320042005200620072008CAR 2006CAR 2008DIFCAR 2005CAR 2005
jan35.741.437.735.034.071.577.477.530.033.010.010.022.0-11.0
fev54.138.255.945.854.582.377.984.648.336.022.023.023.0-13.0
mar66.037.263.949.183.292.089.794.860.339.039.00.039.034.0-5.0
abr71.233.165.653.097.497.198.395.540.052.012.031.0-9.0
mai67.327.361.049.396.095.795.692.937.053.016.027.0-10.0
jun61.824.655.845.295.191.389.883.535.046.011.028.0-7.024.9
jul54.920.949.440.090.484.680.773.430.038.08.030.00.024.9
ago46.816.941.834.183.276.771.065.624.030.06.031.07.0
set39.412.533.227.873.367.560.454.518.027.09.029.011.0
out28.98.524.419.064.057.252.340.213.022.09.030.017.0
nov27.57.818.613.756.453.048.729.410.022.012.030.020.0
dez36.814.118.714.258.967.161.926.610.030.020.025.015.0
ENA 2000ENA 2003ENA 2005
ENA200020012002200320042005
jan68.5%153.5%98.7%111.0%128.2%77.8%
fev84.4%233.8%69.5%108.5%57.6%35.1%
mar108.0%141.1%61.2%112.7%48.6%36.0%
abr56.1%107.0%52.9%57.2%58.7%104.0%
mai49.9%106.6%107.8%45.7%108.0%
jun47.3%95.0%92.4%76.1%88.7%
jul82.8%108.3%59.3%65.8%116.5%
ago53.2%75.9%113.2%33.1%46.5%
set202.1%70.9%126.1%24.4%65.7%
out151.3%176.7%137.9%42.0%112.9%
nov72.7%75.6%186.5%80.4%147.6%
dez66.8%99.2%221.2%225.0%80.5%
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO NORDESTE
CAR 2008 / 2009
60,3% Valor esperado – PMO Mar/08 Rev. 02
Estudo Prospectivo do ONS
ENA (%MLT)
abrmaijunjulagosetoutnov
7886939292888982
Área para Número do Slide
Gráfico2
janjanjan0.68511117911.10989207020.778
fevfevfev0.84417065941.08471578330.351
marmarmar1.08020760261.12704971940.36
abrabrabr0.56147596340.57235900221.04
maimaimai0.49948034050.4569640209
junjunjun0.47324688970.7605287688
juljuljul0.82793655170.6577592867
agoagoago0.53156789220.3308526209
setsetset2.02088093160.2441720996
outoutout1.51273146390.4202403212
novnovnov0.72688615530.8035795254
dezdezdez0.66817187772.2499899368
&A
Page &P
PREVPMO
4º pior fev
2º pior mar
EAR 2000
EAR 2003
EAR 2005
ENA 2000
ENA 2003
ENA 2005
EAR (% do MAX)
ENA (% da MLT)
EARs e ENAs da Região Sul
47.5
85.4
68.2
47.3
89.3
50.7
52.3
87.9
34.6
40
72.8
42.5
30.2
58.8
64
29.6
60.9
93
44.1
60.2
90.7
47
47.1
83.9
85.7
33.6
95.2
96.2
33.5
90.9
92.9
41.2
87.6
89.4
81
78.8
Gráfico1
janjanjan77.477.5101030
fevfevfev77.984.6222348.3
marmarmar89.794.8393960.3
abrabrabr98.395.55264.5
maimaimai95.692.95363.3
junjunjun89.883.54659.8
juljuljul80.773.43853.9
agoagoago7165.63046.8
setsetset60.454.52736.2
outoutout52.340.22228.6
novnovnov48.729.42223.8
dezdezdez61.926.630
&A
Page &P
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Armazenamentos no final do mês
EAR (%)
35
34
71.5
45.8
54.5
82.3
49.1
83.2
92
53
97.4
97.1
49.3
96
95.7
45.2
95.1
91.3
40
90.4
84.6
34.1
83.2
76.7
27.8
73.3
67.5
19
64
57.2
13.7
56.4
53
14.2
58.9
67.1
Plan1
EAR 2000EAR 2003EAR 2005CAR (EAR)
EAR200020012002200320042005200620072008CAR 2006CAR 2008DIFCAR 2005CAR 2005
jan35.741.437.735.034.071.577.477.530.033.010.010.022.0-11.0
fev54.138.255.945.854.582.377.984.648.336.022.023.023.0-13.0
mar66.037.263.949.183.292.089.794.860.339.039.00.039.034.0-5.0
abr71.233.165.653.097.497.198.395.564.540.052.012.031.0-9.0
mai67.327.361.049.396.095.795.692.963.337.053.016.027.0-10.0
jun61.824.655.845.295.191.389.883.559.835.046.011.028.0-7.024.9
jul54.920.949.440.090.484.680.773.453.930.038.08.030.00.024.9
ago46.816.941.834.183.276.771.065.646.824.030.06.031.07.0
set39.412.533.227.873.367.560.454.536.218.027.09.029.011.0
out28.98.524.419.064.057.252.340.228.613.022.09.030.017.0
nov27.57.818.613.756.453.048.729.423.810.022.012.030.020.0
dez36.814.118.714.258.967.161.926.610.030.020.025.015.0
ENA 2000ENA 2003ENA 2005
ENA200020012002200320042005
jan68.5%153.5%98.7%111.0%128.2%77.8%
fev84.4%233.8%69.5%108.5%57.6%35.1%
mar108.0%141.1%61.2%112.7%48.6%36.0%
abr56.1%107.0%52.9%57.2%58.7%104.0%
mai49.9%106.6%107.8%45.7%108.0%
jun47.3%95.0%92.4%76.1%88.7%
jul82.8%108.3%59.3%65.8%116.5%
ago53.2%75.9%113.2%33.1%46.5%
set202.1%70.9%126.1%24.4%65.7%
out151.3%176.7%137.9%42.0%112.9%
nov72.7%75.6%186.5%80.4%147.6%
dez66.8%99.2%221.2%225.0%80.5%
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO NORTE
CON 2008
87,2% Valor esperado – PMO Mar/08 Rev. 02
Área para Número do Slide
Gráfico2
janjanjan0.68511117911.10989207020.778
fevfevfev0.84417065941.08471578330.351
marmarmar1.08020760261.12704971940.36
abrabrabr0.56147596340.57235900221.04
maimaimai0.49948034050.4569640209
junjunjun0.47324688970.7605287688
juljuljul0.82793655170.6577592867
agoagoago0.53156789220.3308526209
setsetset2.02088093160.2441720996
outoutout1.51273146390.4202403212
novnovnov0.72688615530.8035795254
dezdezdez0.66817187772.2499899368
&A
Page &P
PREVPMO
4º pior fev
2º pior mar
EAR 2000
EAR 2003
EAR 2005
ENA 2000
ENA 2003
ENA 2005
EAR (% do MAX)
ENA (% da MLT)
EARs e ENAs da Região Sul
47.5
85.4
68.2
47.3
89.3
50.7
52.3
87.9
34.6
40
72.8
42.5
30.2
58.8
64
29.6
60.9
93
44.1
60.2
90.7
47
47.1
83.9
85.7
33.6
95.2
96.2
33.5
90.9
92.9
41.2
87.6
89.4
81
78.8
Gráfico1
janjanjan73.748.24929.7
fevfevfev90.591.67944.4
marmarmar94.697.89087.2
abrabrabr97.399.691
maimaimai9898.591
junjunjun93.793.187
juljuljul77.68275
agoagoago54.661.256
setsetset44.546.742
outoutout36.335.829
novnovnov33.730.521
dezdezdez35.730.115
&A
Page &P
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Armazenamentos no final do mês
EAR (%)
34.1
46.5
48.8
73.5
79
86.8
80.6
86.4
95
83.3
90.5
98
84.8
89.5
97.5
82
88.4
93.1
73.9
80.6
84.4
63.9
68.4
71.2
47
53
56.2
30.6
37.2
41.2
23.1
30.5
34.1
20.5
31.1
48.1
Plan1
EAR 2000EAR 2003EAR 2005CAR (EAR)
EAR200020012002200320042005200620072008CAR 2006CAR 2008DIFCAR 2005CAR 2005
jan75.571.970.834.146.548.873.748.229.734.049.00.022.0-12.0
fev80.772.575.373.579.086.890.591.644.437.079.012.023.0-14.0
mar83.374.377.980.686.495.094.697.887.274.090.05.034.0-40.0
abr83.776.473.683.390.598.097.399.688.091.02.031.0-57.0
mai82.175.974.284.889.597.598.098.589.091.02.027.0-62.0
jun81.170.770.882.088.493.193.793.187.087.04.028.0-59.024.9
jul75.564.758.673.980.684.477.682.077.075.030.0-47.024.9
ago61.552.343.163.968.471.254.661.262.056.031.0-31.0
set45.438.228.847.053.056.244.546.748.042.029.0-19.0
out32.124.216.130.637.241.236.335.835.029.030.0-5.0
nov29.018.09.823.130.534.133.730.525.021.030.05.0
dez59.337.412.920.531.148.135.730.119.015.025.06.0
ENA 2000ENA 2003ENA 2005
ENA200020012002200320042005
jan68.5%153.5%98.7%111.0%128.2%77.8%
fev84.4%233.8%69.5%108.5%57.6%35.1%
mar108.0%141.1%61.2%112.7%48.6%36.0%
abr56.1%107.0%52.9%57.2%58.7%104.0%
mai49.9%106.6%107.8%45.7%108.0%
jun47.3%95.0%92.4%76.1%88.7%
jul82.8%108.3%59.3%65.8%116.5%
ago53.2%75.9%113.2%33.1%46.5%
set202.1%70.9%126.1%24.4%65.7%
out151.3%176.7%137.9%42.0%112.9%
nov72.7%75.6%186.5%80.4%147.6%
dez66.8%99.2%221.2%225.0%80.5%
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA DA REGIÃO NORTE
CON 2008
87,2% Valor esperado – PMO Mar/08 Rev. 02
Estudo Prospectivo do ONS
ENA (%MLT)
abrmaijunjulagosetoutnov
8691858991919391
Área para Número do Slide
Gráfico2
janjanjan0.68511117911.10989207020.778
fevfevfev0.84417065941.08471578330.351
marmarmar1.08020760261.12704971940.36
abrabrabr0.56147596340.57235900221.04
maimaimai0.49948034050.4569640209
junjunjun0.47324688970.7605287688
juljuljul0.82793655170.6577592867
agoagoago0.53156789220.3308526209
setsetset2.02088093160.2441720996
outoutout1.51273146390.4202403212
novnovnov0.72688615530.8035795254
dezdezdez0.66817187772.2499899368
&A
Page &P
PREVPMO
4º pior fev
2º pior mar
EAR 2000
EAR 2003
EAR 2005
ENA 2000
ENA 2003
ENA 2005
EAR (% do MAX)
ENA (% da MLT)
EARs e ENAs da Região Sul
47.5
85.4
68.2
47.3
89.3
50.7
52.3
87.9
34.6
40
72.8
42.5
30.2
58.8
64
29.6
60.9
93
44.1
60.2
90.7
47
47.1
83.9
85.7
33.6
95.2
96.2
33.5
90.9
92.9
41.2
87.6
89.4
81
78.8
Gráfico1
janjanjan73.748.24929.7
fevfevfev90.591.67944.4
marmarmar94.697.89087.2
abrabrabr97.399.69191.7
maimaimai9898.59192.2
junjunjun93.793.18790.9
juljuljul77.6827584.2
agoagoago54.661.25671.6
setsetset44.546.74250.8
outoutout36.335.82933.2
novnovnov33.730.52124.6
dezdezdez35.730.115
&A
Page &P
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Armazenamentos no final do mês
EAR (%)
34.1
46.5
48.8
73.5
79
86.8
80.6
86.4
95
83.3
90.5
98
84.8
89.5
97.5
82
88.4
93.1
73.9
80.6
84.4
63.9
68.4
71.2
47
53
56.2
30.6
37.2
41.2
23.1
30.5
34.1
20.5
31.1
48.1
Plan1
EAR 2000EAR 2003EAR 2005CAR (EAR)
EAR200020012002200320042005200620072008CAR 2006CAR 2008DIFCAR 2005CAR 2005
jan75.571.970.834.146.548.873.748.229.734.049.00.022.0-12.0
fev80.772.575.373.579.086.890.591.644.437.079.012.023.0-14.0
mar83.374.377.980.686.495.094.697.887.274.090.05.034.0-40.0
abr83.776.473.683.390.598.097.399.691.788.091.02.031.0-57.0
mai82.175.974.284.889.597.598.098.592.289.091.02.027.0-62.0
jun81.170.770.882.088.493.193.793.190.987.087.04.028.0-59.024.9
jul75.564.758.673.980.684.477.682.084.277.075.030.0-47.024.9
ago61.552.343.163.968.471.254.661.271.662.056.031.0-31.0
set45.438.228.847.053.056.244.546.750.848.042.029.0-19.0
out32.124.216.130.637.241.236.335.833.235.029.030.0-5.0
nov29.018.09.823.130.534.133.730.524.625.021.030.05.0
dez59.337.412.920.531.148.135.730.119.015.025.06.0
ENA 2000ENA 2003ENA 2005
ENA200020012002200320042005
jan68.5%153.5%98.7%111.0%128.2%77.8%
fev84.4%233.8%69.5%108.5%57.6%35.1%
mar108.0%141.1%61.2%112.7%48.6%36.0%
abr56.1%107.0%52.9%57.2%58.7%104.0%
mai49.9%106.6%107.8%45.7%108.0%
jun47.3%95.0%92.4%76.1%88.7%
jul82.8%108.3%59.3%65.8%116.5%
ago53.2%75.9%113.2%33.1%46.5%
set202.1%70.9%126.1%24.4%65.7%
out151.3%176.7%137.9%42.0%112.9%
nov72.7%75.6%186.5%80.4%147.6%
dez66.8%99.2%221.2%225.0%80.5%
FATOS RELEVANTES
1º de fevereiro/2008 entrada em operação comercial do gasoduto Cabiúnas-Vitória
A UTE Araucária encontra-se indisponível à operação, com previsão de retorno para abril
Angra I retorno previsto para 15/abr
Área para Número do Slide
ARMAZENAMENTOS DA REGIÃO NORTE
2006
2007
2008
Área para Número do Slide
ARMAZENAMENTOS DA REGIÃO NORDESTE
2006
2007
2008
Área para Número do Slide
ARMAZENAMENTOS DA REGIÃO SUDESTE
2006
2007
2008
Área para Número do Slide
ARMAZENAMENTOS DA REGIÃO SUL
2006
2007
2008
Área para Número do Slide
FIM
Área para Número do Slide
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
janfevmarabrmaijunjulagosetoutnovdez
Armazenamentos no final do mês
EAR (%)
200320042005200620072008
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
janfevmarabrmaijunjulagosetoutnovdez
Armazenamentos no final do mês
EAR (%)
200320042005200620072008
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
janfevmarabrmaijunjulagosetoutnovdez
Armazenamentos no final do mês
EAR (%)
200320042005200620072008
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
janfevmarabrmaijunjulagosetoutnovdez
Armazenamentos no final do mês
EAR (%)
200320042005200620072008
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
janfevmarabrmaijunjulagosetoutnovdez
Armazenamentos no final do mês
EAR (%)
200320042005200620072008
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
janfevmarabrmaijunjulagosetoutnovdez
Armazenamentos no final do mês
EAR (%)
200320042005200620072008
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
janfevmarabrmaijunjulagosetoutnovdez
Armazenamentos no final do mês
EAR (%)
200320042005200620072008
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago
Set
Out
Nov
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago
Set
Out
Nov
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago
Set
Out
Nov
Dez
EAR (%)
CAR
VERIFICADO
PMO Março
Rev. 02
ENA = 99 % MLT
75,1
EAR (%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1/111/1231/1230/11/3
2006-20072007-2008
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
janfevmarabrmaijunjulagosetoutnovdez
Armazenamentos no final do mês
EAR (%)
200320042005200620072008
87,2
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago
Set
Out
Nov
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago
Set
Out
Nov
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago
Set
Out
Nov
Dez
EAR (%)
VERIFICADO
CON
PMO Março
Rev. 02
ENA = 92% MLT
ENA (MWmed)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
1/111/1231/1230/11/3
2006-20072007-2008
60,3
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago
Set
Out
Nov
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago
Set
Out
Nov
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago
Set
Out
Nov
Dez
EAR (%)
CAR
VERIFICADO
PMO Março
Rev. 02
ENA = 91 % MLT
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago
Set
Out
Nov
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago
Set
Out
Nov
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago
Set
Out
Nov
Dez
EAR (%)
CAR
VERIFICADO
PMO Março
Rev. 02
ENA = 55 % MLT
43,3