AVAILABILITY OF FISHMEAL AND FISH OIL AND IMPLICATIONS FOR AQUACULTURE C.J. SHEPHERD
AVAILABILITY OF FISHMEAL AND
FISH OIL AND IMPLICATIONS
FOR AQUACULTURE
C.J. SHEPHERD
MASS BALANCE OF MARINE
INGREDIENTS PRODUCTION 2010
IFFO estimates
Total 18,515
Whole Fish 13,886
By-Products 4,629
888 4,166
Water Steam 13,461
LANDED VOLUMES
(GREATER THAN
200K TONNES) OF
FISH SPECIES USED
FOR REDUCTION
(AVERAGE OF 2001-
2006) CLASSIFIED
BY THEIR DEGREE
OF ACCEPTABILITY
AS HUMAN FOOD
INDUSTRIAL GRADE FORAGE Landings tonnes
Gulf menhaden (Brevoortia patronus) 479,000
Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) 212,000
Sand-eel (Ammodytes spp.) 486,500
Total 1,175,000 tonnes of which 100% converted
FOOD GRADE FORAGE
Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) 8,468,000
Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) 1,567,000
South African anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) 228,000
Sprat (Sprattus sprattus) 262,000
Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) 678,500
Capelin (Mallotus villosus) 958,500
Total 12,162,000 tonnes of which an estimated 90% was converted
PRIME FOOD FISH
Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) 656,500
European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) 639,000
Chilean jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyii) 1,870,000
Japanese jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicas) 320,000
Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) 1,403,500
Californian sardine (Sardina sagax caerulea) 556,000
South African sardine (Sardina sagax) 263,000
Total 5,708,000 tonnes (average landings 2001 – 2006) of which an unknown percentage
was converted after Wijkström, 2011
RAW MATERIAL FOR GLOBAL
MARINE INGREDIENTS PRODUCTION
2000-2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2005 2010
Raw material sources for fishmeal
By-products
Whole wild fish
IFFO estimates
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
ton
ne
s ,0
00
Fishmeal
Fish Oil
GLOBAL FISHMEAL AND FISH OIL
PRODUCTION
1964-2010 (TONNES X 103)
IFFO data
El Niňo
IFFO data
FISHMEAL AND FISH
OIL PRODUCTION
SHOWS SLOW
DECLINE BUT
CONTINUES TO BE
DOMINATED BY
PRODUCTION IN
SOUTH AMERICA.
PRODUCTION IN
EUROPE HAS
CONTINUED TO
DECREASE
CHANGING USES OF FISHMEAL
1960 TO 2010
Aquaculture 73%
Chickens 5%
Pigs 20%
Others 2%
The estimated use of fishmeal by sector 2010
IFFO estimates
ESTIMATED USE OF FISHMEAL BY
SECTOR IN 2010
TREND IN WEEKLY PRICE RATIO OF
FISHMEAL TO SOYABEAN MEAL
1993 TO MARCH 2012
IFFO data
CHANGING USE OF FISH OIL FROM
HYDROGENATED FAT TO AQUACULTURE
AND DIRECT HUMAN CONSUMPTION
80%
20%
1960
Hardened Edible
Aquafeed
Industrial
Refined Edible
Changing uses of fish oil
Clockwise from the top
IFFO estimates
2%
71%
3%
24%
2010
59%16%
20%
5%
1990
FISH OIL USAGE (TONNES X 103)
2005-2011*
IFFO & GOED data * 2011 is an estimate
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Other uses
Crude Oil human consumption
Aquaculture
SOURCES OF REFINED OIL 2011
79.4%
6.8%
5.8% 3.0%
4.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Anchovy/Sardine Cod Tuna Salmon Algae Krill Yeast Plant
Source GOED Note over 95% comes from fish
SOURCES OF REFINED OIL 2011
VOLUMES OF SALMON FEED ARE
INCREASING
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000 19
85
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
E
North America
UK
Chile
Norway
,000 tonnes
CHANGING COMPOSITION OF SALMON
FEEDS OVER TIME WITH SUBSTITUTION
OF FISHMEAL & FISH OIL
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 2000 2005 2010
Fish meal Alternative proteins and starch Fish oil Vegetable oils
Fish oil
Alternative proteins and starch
Fish meal
N. Alsted pers. comm.
INCREASING AQUACULTURE DOES NOT USE
MORE MARINE INGREDIENTS
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Global Aquaculture Production with fishmeal and fish oil usage 2000-2010 tonnes millions
Fed Aquaculture
Fish meal in aquaculture
Fish Oil in aquaculture
Data FAO & IFFO
CHANGING EPA/DHA CONTENT IN
NORWEGIAN SALMON
2002-2012
2002 2012 % of total oil in salmon feed 35% 35%
% fish oil* in added dietary oil 100% 33%
% dietary fish oil contribution via fish oil within fishmeal 5% 1.5%
% fish oil in total diet 35% 12.6%
% EPA+DHA of dietary oil (if fish oil contains 20% EPA+DHA) 20% 7.2%
EPA+DHA in 140g portion of salmon fillet containing 15% oil ** 4200 mg 1512 mg
No. of days of EFSA requirement met by 1 portion (250 mg/day) 16.8 6.0
No. of days of UK/SCAN requirement met by 1 portion (450 mg/day) 9.3 3.4
No. of days of WHO requirement met by 1 portion (500 mg/day) 8.4 3.0
* Assumes fish oil mix of approx. 50% Peruvian anchovy and 50% North Atlantic sources * *Assumes EPA & DHA levels in salmon fillet are the same as the oil in the feed
SO BY 2017 WE NEED:
Approximately 400,000 tonnes of crude oil for refining for human consumption Approximately 400,000 tonnes for salmonid feed At least 200,000 tonnes for other aquaculture Fish oil production is predicted to remain at around 1 million tonnes Conclusion: we urgently need more sources of LC Omega 3
• Algae
• Krill
• Genetically Modified oil seeds
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SOURCES
FOR 2015
• Two mains types of production: – Fermentation: investing companies include
DSM Martek and Lonza
– Sunlight: Aurora and Algae Biosciences
• A lot of development on the back of biofuel research e.g. Cellana in Hawaii
• Most still in the start up phase
ALGAE
• Ratio’s of EPA & DHA and concentrations vary from species to species and growing conditions
• Generally concentrations of LC Omega 3 in the oil are higher than in fish oil
• Using a 30% EPA/DHA equivalence production was around 5000 tonnes in 2011 and likely to be around 30,000 tonnes by 2017
ALGAE
• Antarctic krill biomass estimated to be 200 - 400 million tonnes
• Managed by CCAMLR who have set a TAC of 5 million tonnes with a trigger level of 620,000 tonnes
• Current catches only around 200,000 tonnes per annum
• Aker Biomarine have obtained MSC certification for their harvests
KRILL
• Aker Biomarine world’s largest harvester of Antarctic Krill
• They represent about 50% of current harvests
• High value but volumes are still small and oil yields low
• Growth is rapid but total volumes likely to be under 5000 tonnes of oil by 2017
KRILL
• There is no commercial production of plant based EPA & DHA production
• The two species closest to market are soy and rapeseed (canola)
GENETICALLY MODIFIED OIL
SEEDS
• Soymega from Monsanto with high SDA is expected to get regulatory approval in the US this year
• An EPA product is still a few years away and DHA is over the horizon
GM SOY WITH LONGER-CHAIN
OMEGA-3 IS CLOSE
• Dow AgroSciences & DSM are working on producing DHA in canola
• Cargill and BASF announced in November 2011 that they were working on producing EPA and DHA from canola
• A commercial product appears several years away
EPA & DHA FROM CANOLA ARE
BEING WORKED ON
Conclusion: There is no EPA & DHA from land plants available today. Unlikely to be significant volumes on the market in 2017. But the potential to increase rapidly once developed means that in ten years volumes could be considerable
• Continuing move to precautionary fishery management as well as to using fish for direct human consumption instead of fishmeal production
• Increasing trend towards use of certification by marine ingredients producers to reassure value chain on sustainability/responsible stock management
• At most a static supply of marine ingredients (~ 5 M tonnes pa fishmeal + 1 M tonnes pa fish oil) going forward but with an increasing proportion of fishery by-products
• Continuing switch to greater added value use (eg to aquaculture for fishmeal instead of agriculture; and direct human consumption products for fish oil)
• Increasing focus on micronutrients in fish raw materials to extend their availability and usefulness and create new added value products
• Continuing growth in demand for aquaculture feed, but accompanied by a continuing trend towards substitution of marine ingredients and to their use as strategic ingredients being restricted to critical stages in the life cycle
LIKELY TRENDS IN SUPPLY AND USE OF
FISHMEAL AND FISH OIL GOING
FORWARD
• Emergence of new sources of raw material - It is unlikely that LC omega-3 demand will be met by GM crop expression in next 5 years, but algal oil is already entering human nutrition & pharmaceuticals
• From 2000 to 2010 the FIFO ratio for fed aquaculture has fallen from 0.6:1 to 0.3:1 - even so-called ‘carnivorous’ fish will increasingly be commercially farmed to yield a net production of fish protein and oil
• It seems unlikely there is a ‘fishmeal trap’ meaning that aquaculture growth will not be limited by the availability of marine ingredients
• In other words there’s enough fishmeal for aquaculture going forward but fish oil could become limiting, pending availability of new sources
• Increasing fish oil demand for direct human consumption will mean reduced availability for aquaculture resulting in lower LC omega-3 levels in aquaculture products – but also in higher omega-6 levels
• Increasing differentiation of salmon products by retailers is likely and failure to meet international recommendations may become an issue
• Taking a global view, there are still areas for improvement, especially the use of low value/trash fish fed raw to aquaculture in S E Asia
LIKELY TRENDS IN SUPPLY AND
USE (CONTD.)
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