Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous

Vehicles:

Status, Trends

and Impact on

Technology

Industry

Barrie Kirk, P.Eng.

Executive Director, Canadian Automated Vehicles Centre of Excellence

Presentation to IoT613

September 30, 2016

CAVCOE

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CAVCOE Partners

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Agenda

• Autonomous Vehicles (AVs): status and

deployment

• Trends and general impacts of AVs

• Impact on technology industry

• Conclusions

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First Generation of AVs are Here

• Semi-autonomous cars: Tesla Model S,

Infiniti Q50, Mercedes S-Class

– Intelligent cruise control (acceleration and

braking)

– Lane-keeping

– Automatic parking

– Pedestrian avoidance / automatic braking

• Fully-autonomous, special purpose vehicles

– Usually low-speed, controlled environment

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Navya

Trial of RDM’s fully-automated taxis,

Milton Keynes, UK

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Suncor: Fully-Automated Heavy Hauler

AV Rollout• Rollout will be incremental; two versions

• Technology companies: Google, RDM, Navya– Start with low-speed, electric, fully-automated,

controlled environment

– Add speed, capability to drive on public roads

• Most major car manufacturers– Add Advanced Driver Assistance Systems

(ADAS) to existing models: intelligent cruise control, lane-keeping, pedestrian avoidance, auto parking

– Add more capability and evolve to full automation

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Timeline and Predictions

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Now First commercial, semi-autonomous,

highway-capable cars

First commercial, 2nd generation,

fully-automated shuttle bus services

2020 Automakers launch fully autonomous

cars

2025 AV usage significant part of total

Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKTs)

Fewer Collisions

• AVs have the potentialto be much safer than human drivers

• 93% of collisions involve driver error

• Hopefully, we can reduce collisions by 80%

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Ottawa Citizen

“Crash Proof Cars”

• There is no such thing !!!

• All hardware, software fails occasionally

• 7% of collisions have nothing to do with the driver– Will happen whether a human or computer is

driving

• There will be collisions, fatalities, injuries– But far fewer

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Development Challenges

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• Reversing• Extreme weather• Work zones• Traffic signals AND

police officer• Road alterations• Pedestrian prediction• Facial reading• Rare events

Regulatory and other Challenges

• Regulatory frameworks:

– AV testing

– Vehicle standards

• Municipal planning for AVs

• Insurance

• Legal

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Agenda


deployment



• Conclusions

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16

Automated

Vehicles

Connected

Vehicles

Electric

VehiclesACE Vehicles

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Automated

Vehicles

Connected

Vehicles

Electric

VehiclesDriverless

TaxisSharing

Economy

Impacts on Private Sector

• Corporate business plans– Auto industry: OEMs, Tier 1 and 2s,

– Auto insurance

– Electricity generation, distribution

– Forest products

– Oil industry

– Parking

– Resource industry

– Taxis, rental cars

– Technology industry

– Trucking: long-haul and local

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Direct Employment Displacement

• Auto-body repair

• Auto insurance

• Bus drivers

• Courier service drivers

• Driving instructors / trainers

• Health staff involved with organ and tissue donation

• Lawyers, staff involved with car collision litigation

• Medical staff involved in car crash victim rehabilitation

• Road safety professionals

• Taxi drivers / chauffeurs

• Tow-truck drivers

• Traffic police

• Transport truck drivers

• Trauma surgeons

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Impacts on Government

• All levels / most departments

– Finance, economy and GDP

– Health-care

– Hydro

– National security

– Policies on technology, industry, R&D

– Policing

– Transit including transit infrastructure

– Transportation policies and regulations

– Urban planning, housing

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Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS)

• “Mobility as a service”

• “Personalized mass transit”

• Trend away from car ownership– To use of fully-automated taxis

– Merging of regular taxis, car rental and transit business models

• Significant mode of transportation in future

• Call one via smartphone

• Slightly more expensive than premium transit ticket

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Agenda


deployment



• Conclusions

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Impact on Auto Industry

• AVs will be highly disruptive

• Value of technology in cars, now 4-5% to

increase to 40-60%

• The auto industry will change more in the

next five to 10 years than it has in the last 50

– GM CEO Mary Barra

• Market for personally-owned cars will

decrease substantially in 2020s

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Lines of Code

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

Space Shuttle 787 Jetliner F-35 Car

Max

Min

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Impact on Auto Industry (2)

• Morgan Stanley predicts the death of the auto industry as we now know it– Business Insider

• Forecasts the end of private ownership of automobiles in favor of rentals, along with the advent of cars without steering wheels -- or drivers

Ford, GM doomed to diminished status "or worse" without a radical "re-evaluation or strategic realignment"– Adam Jonas, head of global auto research at Morgan

Stanley

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CV: Current Applications

• Infotainment for humans:

– Traffic updates, weather, restaurants, concierge service

– Streaming music, movies, on-line games, social networking

• Internet of Things (IoT):

– Vehicle remote access

– Uploading vehicle health reports

– Uploading Usage Based Insurance (UBI) data

– Fleet management

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CV: Future Applications

• IoT:– Safety / collision avoidance

– Fleet management of driverless taxis

– Updating car’s software: OS, AV control, HMI

– Scanning web for conditions on road ahead

– Road-trains / platooning

– Uploading road, traffic, weather data

• For humans and computers:– Calling a driverless taxi

– Enhanced integration of smartphones into vehicles

– Updating maps

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Agenda


deployment



• Conclusions

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Conclusions

• AVs will lead to huge, disruptive changes to

our personal lives and society

– In 2030, our cities and our world will look very

different

– Key benefit: computers will be much better

drivers than humans

• Substantial opportunities for technology

companies in a very large market

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Follow-up

• Barrie Kirk

[email protected]

613-271-1657

• www.cavcoe.com

– Latest issue of AV Update, a free monthly

newsletter with news on AVs from around the

world

– Subscription link

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http://www.cavcoe.com/