Roland Berger June, 2020 Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19 Photo by Getty Images JUNE UPDATE
Roland Berger
June, 2020
Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19
Photo by Getty Images
JUNE UPDATE
22020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
This document shall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation.
It may not be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without prior written consent from .
© Roland Berger
Contents Page
A. Updated view on the COVID impact in the automotive aftermarket 3
B. Real sales data: Overview by month, week, and product category 12
C. Deep dive and forecast on miles driven – "new normal" 17
A. Updated view on the COVID impact in the automotive aftermarket
42020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
Industry analysts continue to update their US auto market forecasts – Cumulative sales for the year-to-date are down 23%
17.1 16.8 16.7
2020e1)2019Actual
2020eIHS
(03/16/20)(03/15/20) (05/06/20)(03/15/20)(03/15/20)(03/15/20)(01/06/20) (01/08/20) (03/15/20)
14.5
13.5
Cox Automotive
LMC Automotive (revised)
15.5
ALG (severe
slowdown)
12.5
ALG(rapid
recovery)
Morgan Stanley
IHS
16.0
RBC Capital Markets
14.3
IHS
16.5 16.4
-24%
Widening spread of estimates
Prior to any confirmed cases in the US
With 16,000 confirmed cases in the US on 03/20, and over 600,000 confirmed cases on 04/15
(04/02/20)
2.1
4.8
Jan-May 2020Jan-May 2019
4.0
1.4
6.9
5.3
-23%
Passenger cars Light trucks
Comparison of Jan-May US auto sales2) [2019 vs. 2020]
Source: Roland Berger
1) LMC and J.D. Power estimate 2) Reported by Marklines
Analyst forecasts for 2020 US auto sales
52020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
Fast recovery
Containment
High impact
Modest impact
Short duration Long duration
Given the uncertainty in the industry, we suggest planning around two plausible scenarios – Delayed cure & Profound recession
Scenario comparison
Source: Roland Berger
Profound recession ('2nd wave")
> After entering phase 3 in 2020, the US would incur a second wave of COVID-19 in October and thus go through another phase of partial shutdown until stabilizing in April 2021
> After 6 weeks of shutdown, 4 weeks of phase 1 reopening, 4 weeks of phase 2, and 3 months of phase 3, the US would enter the stage of new normal for the rest of 2020 and 2021
Delayed cure
Updated scenarios1)
1) In both scenarios, miles driven are expected to grow at 1.4% long-term growth rate starting in January 2022
62020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
Shortduration
Longduration
High impact
Modest impact
(35-40%)
2020 vs. 2019
(25-28%)
2020 vs. 2019
15-20%
2021 vs. 2020
15-20%
2021 vs. 2020
V-Shape: Fast recovery
"Flat" Shape: Containment U-Shape: Delayed cure
L-Shape: Profound recessionFor modeling purposes, we used the middle of the range in each scenario
Under our scenarios, we expect the US auto new vehicle sales market to contract between 25% and 40% this year
Expected YoY change in US auto sales by scenario
Note: The aftermarket forecasts consider the middle of the ranges
Source: Roland Berger
Forecast as of May 26th
72020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
COVID-19 infection growth[Jan 22 to June 10, million active cases] Exposure to supply effects Exposure to demand effects
Au
tom
oti
veA
fter
mar
ket
> Highly integrated global supply chains
make the automotive industry vulnerable to
supply shock
> Huge exposure to consumer demand, as
car purchases tend to be postponed in
times of economic downturn
> Industry growth strongly depends on
Chinese demand
> Supplier structure is exposed to risk of
collapse in economic downturn due to
breakdowns in tier-2 & 3 supplier structures
> Access to key parts required to maintain
product range can become increasingly
difficult if supply chains have not been
highly integrated or have been arranged
globally, the latter resulting in difficulties to
obtain parts in case of transport restrictions
> Ability to source internally will be a key
advantage for Aftermarket players, given
the likely chance that plant capacities will
be free for Aftermarket parts production
> Near-term reduction in miles driven during
social distancing and shut-down. Extended
re-build in the case of prolonged recession
reduce service needs
> Car purchase postponement during
downturn drives older vehicle parc,
balancing repair volume post-shut-down in
the IAM
> Increased preference for own vehicle over
public transit for fear of viral infection may
drive demand increase of aftermarket
service
> Parts suppliers with critical repair parts
(e.g., transmission, engine) are expected to
face lower impact than accessories parts
suppliers
Very high exposure Very low exposure
Ove
rall
risk
03/01
0.0
0.1
01/22 05/01
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4US
Europe
China
Mexico
The Automotive Aftermarket will face a significant impact, albeit lower risk as compared to the overall automotive industry
Source: John Hopkins CSSEGIS, IHS, Roland Berger
06/10
82020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
2.4%
-37.5%
US Base Case [%]1)
(Pre COVID-19 Forecast)
Aftermarket as compared to the overall automotive industry
More favorable In line Less favorableGrowth of gross value added (GVA) 2020 [%, Indexed to 2019]
Growth of gross value added (GVA) 2021 [%, Indexed to 2019]
2020
2021
2020
2021
Delayed cure Profound recession
3.5%
7.0%
-2.3%
-3.2%
-11.5%
-5.8%
-26.5%
-13.6%
-14.5%
-6.6%
-26.6%
IAM
OEM
2020
2021
1.8%
2.9%Deeper and longer impact due to lower new vehicle car parc and some channel share loss
-16.9%
-10.0%
-21.0%
-14.3%
IAM channels are expected to be less impacted by the crisis – AFM suppliers were hit hard as retailers decided to reduce inventories
SE
RV
ICE
SA
LE
SA
FM
. S
UP
PL
IER
2)
-25.4%2020
5.1%
-21.0%
-4.0%2021
RE
TAIL
ER
S
& W
Ds3) 4.2%
8.3%
-12.7%
-6.4% -7.4%
2020
2021Assumes 1 month reduced IAM sales in 2020 due to retailers reducing inventory
Considers 29% share of DIY sales, which has a higher impact during the crisis
80% IAM20% OE
Assumes service retention drops 5% in 2020 and 2% in 2021 and recovers in 2022
1) Both 2020 and 2021 compared to 2019 2) Assumes 20 OEM / 80 IAM part sales split 3) Assumes 3 OEM/97 IAM part sales split
Source: IHS, Roland Berger
Within service, dealers are
impacted by both, reduction in overall miles driven and a smaller 0-5 year-
old car parc
Retailers are seeing a higher
impact in the DIY segment – DIFM
follows IAM trends
Suppliers are impacted by a reduction in
vehicle sales, lower demand for
service, and retailers reducing
inventory-7.0%
-15.9%
Forecast as of May 26th
92020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
IAM players will have limited downturn due to aging vehicle parc –Dealers to face impact on vehicle sales & reduced new vehicle parc
Vehiclesales[m units]
Delayed cure Profound recession
12.6
2020 2023
14.8 16.0
2021 2022
15.2 16.6
2024
16.7
2025
COVID-19 Impact Annual sales
15.014.2
2023
10.7
2020 2021
12.6
2022
13.2
2024
15.9
2025
43.9
46.9
281.3
51.0
133.2
44.4
50.9
2020
46.7
275.7
2023
133.3
47.7
136.3
2021
42.5
50.5 41.6
2025
134.2
2022
45.8
45.9
49.2
43.4
49.0
139.1
275.3
2024
49.2
48.6
141.9
275.0 277.2 279.3
48.5
Total car parc[m units]
-25% -10% -7% -3% - - -36% -24% -19% -14% -10% -5%
-1% -2% -3% -3% -3% -3% -2% -4% -5% -5% -6% -6%
X% Impact vs January 2020 forecast
Sales recovery
4 years 6 years
Car parc recovery
n/a as car parc continues to increase 6+ years
> This scenario will resemble the 1980 recession that took 47+ months to recover to regular sales levels
> Full recovery sales to occur in 2024
> This scenario will resemble the 2008 financial crisis that took 76 months to recover to regular sales levels
> Full recovery sales to occur in 2026
> Reduction in vehicle sales will impact 0-2 year car parc in the earlier years and +3 year car parc later
> Overall vehicle parc expected to continue to grow, but at a lower pace
> Relatively longer term of COVID-19 impact will cause the peak of car parc reduction to occur in 2022-23
> Parc will take 6+years to recover
Forecast as of May 26th
9+ 0-26-8 3-5
269.4
2024
50.5
133.3
45.0
50.9
20212020
43.9
51.0 39.4
133.2
40.3
46.7
269.7
36.4
49.248.5
134.2
2022
39.9
44.0
136.3
2023
42.3
49.0
141.9139.1
269.9
45.0
35.7
48.6
2025
273.2 271.2 271.2
Vehicle sales: Total car parc (years):
Source: IHS, Roland Berger
102020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
The total vehicle car parc is relatively insulated during financial downturns – COVID expected to reduce car parc by up to 2.6%
2008/09 financial crisis
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
20001994 1996 1998 20082002 2006 20142004 2010 2012 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Profound recession
Original forecast
Delayed cure
-2.3%
-2.6%
2000 dot-com bubble
Global pandemic
2025
9.1
9.6
10.010.6
11.8
12.0
12.5
12.2
2000
2002
200820101)
2018
20222)
x.x Average vehicle age [years]
Source: IHS, USDT, Roland Berger
1) 2009 Cash for Clunkers program reduced 2010 average vehicle age by 0.1 years2) If a similar program to the 2009 Cash for Clunkers initiative was implemented, would reduce 2022 average vehicle age by 0.1 years
Total US light vehicle car parc [1994-2025, 1994 = 100]Forecast as of
May 26th
112020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
1,750
1994 2004 200820021996 2000 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 20241998
2,000
2,250
3,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,500
3,750
Original forecast
Profound recession
Delayed cure
+3%
Global pandemic
2008/2009 financial crisis
2000 dot-com bubble
Total miles driven will be reduced by up to 15% in 2020 –Cumulative annual impact through June is expected to be 8.3%
Total miles driven in US [1994-2025, vehicle miles bn]
1) Forecast
Source: USDT, IHS, US Congressional Budget Office, MS2 – Traffic Dashboard; Roland Berger
Additional decrease in miles driven in the Profound Recession is due to risk of second wave, which prolongs time spent with reduced consumer driving behavior
2025
Mar
23%
84%100%
Jan
100%
16%
June1)Feb
40%
60%
Apr
77%
May
18%
82%Impact
Actual
Cumulative impact [% of annual miles]
0.0% 0.0% -1.4% -4.8%
Miles driven vs original forecast [2020 Jan-May, %]
-6.8% -8.3%
B. Real sales data: Overview by month, week, and product category
132020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
May showed a strong recovery with total volume closing only ~5% below Jan 2020 level – June volume started better than May's
DIFM Sales evolution by month and week
Source: John Hopkins CSSEGIS, Roland Berger
100%95%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
75%
April
100%
Jan JuneFeb Mar May
90%tbd
0
25
50
75
100
125 1,250
0
750
250
500
1,000
9-Mar 18-May
23-Mar
70%
2-Mar 16-Mar
80%
30-Mar
70%
6-Apr 13-Apr
20-Apr
27-Apr
4-May
11-May
100%
60%
95%
70%
50% 50%
85% 85% 90%
Weekly salesActive COVID-19 cases
Active cases = Confirmed – Deaths – Recovered cases
2020 monthly sales [Jan 2020 = 100%]Change in weekly sales versus COVID active cases [2-Mar = 100%]1)
Initial sharp drop to 50% followed by a quick recovery
1) Weekly data only available until the end of week of May 18th
June volume started better than May's at nearly 95%
142020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
After a slight pre-shutdown bump, segments have dropped between 5% and 50% in the shutdown period
DIFM Sales evolution by product category [Week of March 2 is the baseline]
Comments
Source: Roland Berger
Shutdownperiod
> Heat/AC is quickly trending upwards as more people were preparing for warmer weather
> Most sales categories were down more than 30% during shutdown
> Given the immediate need, and positive influence of irregular driving, batteries is the only category that has maintained its level
> Expensive repairs such as suspension/steering, engine, shocks & struts, transmission, and exhaust were some of the hardest-hit
Jan Feb 2-Mar 9-Mar 16-Mar to 20-Apr May
Batteries 0% -5% 0% 5% 5% 30%
Heat/AC -45% -30% 0% 25% 5% 100%
Tires -15% -5% 0% 5% -30% -15%
Electrical -10% -10% 0% -15% -30% -20%
Oil -15% -15% 0% -5% -40% -25%
Drivetrain -10% -15% 0% -5% -40% -25%
Engine -15% -10% 0% 10% -15% -15%
Brake -20% -10% 0% -15% -50% -30%
Baseline
152020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
Oil and tires were the most popular lead-in services for concierge and helped pull add-on business
Concierge services overview
Share of concierge services performed by service category [%]
Penetration of other services on invoices with concierge and oil change [%]
Others 10%
Oil
Engine
Tires &alignment
20%Electrical
35%
30%
Brakes 20%
10%
65%
60%
40%
35%Others
Electrical
Tires & alignment
Engine
Source: Roland Berger
162020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
Aftermarket players are optimistic – Sales are currently much higher than during the peak of the crisis and continue to improve
Mar
ket f
eedb
ack
The situation is not as bad as
we initially thought. It is getting
better week by week.
Auto parts are profitable
businesses and I haven't seen
many go out of business.
Recovery has come so fast that
I don't see it likely that many
people will be forced out of
business.
Online reservations have more
than doubled in the last 4-8
weeks after a long period
without a significant increase.
This includes products that let
customers "do the talk online"
and simply drop off the car.
Our financial position is
stronger than expected. We're
returning to the office next week
(Phase II of reopening plan).
There was a big increase in
eCommerce demand (service)
after relief checks arrived
We moved very quickly with the
decisions to preserve cash and
keep the business position. The
first week of April was the
worst, but we're recovering
weekly since then.
I was surprised that a lot of
people spent stimulus money
on trucks parts
Market feedback quotes
Source: Jeffries - The Road Ahead, Roland Berger
May 28, 2020
C. Deep dive and forecast on miles driven – "new normal"
182020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
1,750
1994 2004 200820021996 2000 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 20241998
2,000
2,250
3,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,500
3,750
Original forecast
Profound recession
Delayed cure
+3%
Global pandemic
2008/2009 financial crisis
2000 dot-com bubble
Total miles driven will be reduced by up to 15% in 2020 –Cumulative annual impact through June expected to be 8.3%
Total miles driven in US [1994-2025, vehicle miles bn]
1) Forecast
Source: USDT, IHS, US Congressional Budget Office, MS2 – Traffic Dashboard; Roland Berger
2025
Mar
23%
84%100%
Jan
100%
16%
June1)Feb
40%
60%
Apr
77%
May
18%
82%Impact
Actual
Cumulative impact [% of annual miles]
0.0% 0.0% -1.4% -4.8%
Miles driven vs original forecast [2020 Jan-May, %]
-6.8% -8.3%
Additional decrease in miles driven in the Profound Recession is due to risk of second wave, which prolongs time spent with reduced consumer driving behavior
192020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
10%
Jan2020
60%
Jul2021
70%
Jul2020
Jan2021
Jan2022
80%
90%
0%
50%
100%
Jan2021
Jan2020
Jul2021
Jul2020
Jan2022
Both COVID scenarios were mapped week-by-week utilizing the median CDC and state ramp-up phases (timing will vary by state)
Week by week miles driven assumptions [100% as baseline mileage]
Delayed cure Second wave
Source: Roland Berger
Phase 1
Phase 2
New normal
Baseline
Phase 3
Phase 1
Phase 2
Baseline
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3Phase 3
New normal
Shutdown Shutdown
202020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
Miles driven will be lower than pre-COVID due to shifts in behavior – not overcome by public transit and air substitution
Source: Desk research, Roland Berger
Driving behavior forecast for "new normal" in comparison to pre-COVID
Increase No change DecreaseImpact on new normal miles driven:1) Includes purchase of services such as haircuts, picking up/droppingoff someone else, or other family/personal errands and obligations
Total 94%100%
Rationale
Surveys indicate consumers are less likely to attend large events post-COVID
Social / Recreational
Less social activities/ public events (e.g., cinema, sports)
30%32%
New normal recoveryNew Normal
Other 6%6%
Mile split
Other Family / Personal Business1)
Limited virtual alternatives to errands (e.g. haircut) so miles driven likely to return to pre-COVID levels
Return to normal as people go back to their normal routines (e.g. haircut, personal errands)
13%13%
Shopping Shift in consumers shopping behavior to online and decrease in overall personal consumption expenditure forecast for 2021
Limiting unnecessary activities to continue social distancing and substitution of traditional retail with e-commerce
15%16%
School / Church Many public schools (K-12 and universities) have announced remote learning for the fall 2020 semester
Schools move to online learning platforms5%5%
Medical / Dental 50% surge in telemedicine visits in March 2020 due to COVID and overall increase in telemedicine trend within healthcare
Drop in number of people going in for physical doctor appointments
4%4%
To/From Work Increase in share of remote work with an estimated 48% of employees working remotely at least part of the time post-COVID
High unemployment and rise in employee's working from home
17%21%
Impact
Work-Related Business
Airline executive predicts travel industry will see permanent 5-10% decrease in business travel
Decrease in total business travel3%3%
Substitute Public Transit 0.02-0.03%0% Shift in consumer preference towards driving
Substitute Tourist Vehicle 0.3-0.6%0% Shift in consumer preference towards driving
Substitute Air Travel 0.95-1.9%0% Shift in consumer preference towards driving
212020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
We considered both driving behavior changes and potential substitution from other forms of transportation
Total US passenger miles [2018, bn miles]
Non-air large vehicle1)
394
AirLV Public transit2)
73035 305
Truck
23
Motorcycle Total passenger miles
4,849
6,336
1) Includes coach bus, sightseeing bus, trolley bus and inter-city rail; unlikely to switch to driving due to the cost difference 2) Includes light rail (e.g. streetcars), heavy rail (e.g. subways/elevated), commuter rail, commuter bus, taxis…
Source: USDT, Roland Berger
Decrease due to business consumer shift to driving (short flights) and some recreation travel shift to driving
No impact given lack of viable alternatives to truck travel
Increase due to substitution from other forms of transportation
Reduction in recreational travel in lieu of close to home driving destinations or staying at home
Overall, passenger miles will decrease due to reduction in consumer travel
Slight increaseIncrease No change DecreaseSlight decrease
Decrease due to reduction in consumer travel (e.g. WFH); partially offset by substitution from other forms of transportation
Share of total passenger miles
11.5% 4.8% 0.4%6.2% 100%76.5% 0.5%
Minor shift in towards driving when economically feasible
COVID impact on passenger miles
222020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
Substituting driving for air travel to will have lower than 1% impact on total miles driven
Air travel – Impact of substitution
Air travel
Personal travel
620 bn miles
Post covidpersonal air
travel
470 bn miles
-24%
<= 500 miles flights
> 500 miles flights
47bn miles
425 bn miles
% decrease
85%
15%Business
travel
110 bn miles
Post covidbusiness air
travel
100 bn miles
-10% <=300 miles flights
3 bn miles
3%
% decrease % addressable
Passenger miles
converted to driving
9-18 bn miles
Passenger miles
converted to driving
25-50 bn miles
20-40%
20-40% * 30%
Substitution rate
Substitution rate *
trip length reduction
20-40%
Passenger miles
converted to driving
0.6-1.2 bn miles
Substitution rate
Source: USDT, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Longwood Int'l & Miles Partnership, Forbes, Roland Berger
Impact on total miles driven [%
change]
0.25-0.5%
0.02-0.03%
0.68-1.37%
0.95-1.9%Total
232020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
Substitution of public transit travel to driving is likely to havelower than 0.1% impact on total miles driven
Public transit travel – Impact of substitution
Impact of public transit conversion to driving on total miles driven
Source: US Department of Transportation (USDT), IBM, Roland Berger
Public transit overview
COVID-19 change in passenger miles [%]
-20%
-25%
-25%
-20%
Mode of transportation
Light rail
Heavy rail
Commuter rail
Demand response
COVID-19 passenger miles that
switch to LV (%)
0%
17%
20% - 50%2)
0%
Impact on LV passenger
miles
0%
0.01%
0.01% - 0.02%
0%
Pre-COVIDShare of
passenger miles [%]
0.0%
0.3%
0.2%
0.0%
Public transit miles includes all passenger miles traveled on:> Light rail (e.g. street cars), Heavy rail
(e.g. subways/elevated trains), Commuter rail, Demand response buses, commuter buses, and taxis
17% of people surveyed intend to use their personal vehicle more
IBM consumer study shows that 20% of respondents said they would no longer use public transit and another 28% said they would use public transit less often
Public transit miles account for ~0.7% of all passenger miles driven and ~0.5% of all passenger miles total
-20%Other1) 0% 0%0.0%
1) Includes bus rapid transit, commuter bus, taxis; 2) Influenced by work-from home and switch to driving for work commute
242020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
Substitution of tourist vehicle travel will increase the total miles driven by 0.3% - 0.6%
Tourist vehicle travel – Impact of substitution
Impact of tourist vehicle conversion to driving on total miles driven
Source: US Department of Transportation (USDT), IBM, Roland Berger
Tourist vehicle overview
Tourist vehicle travel miles includes all passenger miles traveled on:
> Coach buses, Intercity trains, Sightseeing buses, Trolley buses
Estimates range between 20% - 40% of these trips will be driven in personal vehicles to closer destinations – LV miles will increase by 0.3% - 0.6%
Using the same methodology as air travel, 24% of passenger miles will not be traveling on these modes of transportation
Tourist vehicle travel accounts for ~8% of all passenger miles driven and ~6% of all passenger miles
COVID-19 change in passenger miles [%]
-24%
-15%
-15%
-24%
Mode of transportation
Coach bus
Sightseeing bus
Trolley bus
Intercity rail
COVID-19 passenger miles that
switch to LV (%)
20% - 40%
0%
0%
20% - 40%
Impact on LV passenger
miles
0.3% - 0.6%
0%
0%
~0%
Pre-COVIDShare of
passenger miles [%]
5.8%
0.3%
0.0%
0.1%
252020_June-16_Roland Berger_Automotive Aftermarket on the Other Side of COVID-19.pptx
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