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We have updated our Rating Distribution with effect from March 20, 2019 – Kindly refer the Disclaimer page, however for our erstwhile recommendations till March 19, 2019, the rating
distribution of the expected total return stands as (Buy – Over 25%, Accumulate – Over 10% , Hold – Upto 10%, Reduce – Below 10%, Sell – Underperforms the broad market indices or its
related universe).
2350
2595
2840
3085
3330
3575
29
-Ma
r-1
6
26
-Sep
-16
26
-Ma
r-1
7
23
-Sep
-17
23
-Ma
r-1
8
20
-Sep
-18
20
-Ma
r-1
9
BUY Hold SellAccumulate Reduce PriceTarget Price
Automobiles India Equity Research | Sector Update
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com, Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>, Reuters and DOWJONES.
ED: ANISH MATHEW SA: DHANANJAY SINHA March 27, 2019| 11
Key Financials (Consolidated) — Eicher Motors
Income Statement
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Revenue 70,334 89,650 98,402 116,211 132,234
Expenditure 48,594 61,573 68,658 81,942 94,788
EBITDA 21,740 28,076 29,743 34,269 37,446
Depreciation 1,538 2,233 2,950 3,533 4,048
EBIT 20,201 25,843 26,793 30,736 33,398
Other Income 2,273 2,801 3,935 5,041 6,461
Interest expenses 36 53 63 67 70
PBT 22,439 28,591 30,665 35,710 39,789
Tax 7,203 9,359 10,733 12,320 13,528
Extraordinary Items (460) (2,201) (175) 0 0
Minority Int./Income from Assoc. 1,895 2,566 2,699 2,737 2,168
Reported Net Income 16,671 19,597 22,456 26,127 28,429
We have updated our Rating Distribution with effect from March 20, 2019 – Kindly refer the Disclaimer page, however for our erstwhile recommendations till March 19, 2019, the rating
distribution of the expected total return stands as (Buy – Over 25%, Accumulate – Over 10% , Hold – Upto 10%, Reduce – Below 10%, Sell – Underperforms the broad market indices or its
related universe).
18000
22000
26000
30000
34000
38000
29
-Ma
r-1
6
26
-Sep
-16
26
-Ma
r-1
7
23
-Sep
-17
23
-Ma
r-1
8
20
-Sep
-18
20
-Ma
r-1
9
BUY Hold SellAccumulate Reduce PriceTarget Price
Automobiles India Equity Research | Sector Update
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com, Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>, Reuters and DOWJONES.
ED: ANISH MATHEW SA: DHANANJAY SINHA March 27, 2019| 14
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com, Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>, Reuters and DOWJONES.
ED: ANISH MATHEW SA: DHANANJAY SINHA March 27, 2019| 16
Hero Motocorp RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE
Date Closing
Price TP
Period (months)
Rating Analyst
4-Feb-19 2,780 2,700 12m Hold Raghunandhan NL
31-Jan-19 2,614 2,700 12m Hold Raghunandhan NL
27-Dec-18 3,129 3,350 12m Hold Raghunandhan NL
16-Oct-18 2,895 3,560 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL
3-Aug-18 3,251 4,130 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL
26-Jul-18 3,137 4,130 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL
2-May-18 3,664 4,660 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL
6-Feb-18 3,542 4,710 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL
2-Nov-17 3,736 4,820 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL
4-Oct-17 3,795 4,230 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL
4-Sep-17 3,979 4,230 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL
25-Jul-17 3,709 4,230 12m Buy Raghunandhan NL
11-May-17 3,462 3,700 12m Buy Mihir Jhaveri
9-Feb-17 3,265 3,700 12m Buy Mihir Jhaveri
3-Feb-17 3,214 3,600 12m Buy Bibhishan Jagtap
7-Dec-16 3,228 3,600 12m Buy Bibhishan Jagtap
28-Oct-16 3,352 3,600 12m Buy Bibhishan Jagtap
1-Sep-16 3,548 3,600 12m Buy Kaushal Maroo
9-Aug-16 3,412 3,400 12m Buy Kaushal Maroo
6-May-16 2,890 3,400 12m Buy Kaushal Maroo
Source: Company, Emkay Research
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY CHART
Source: Bloomberg, Company, Emkay Research
Note:
We have updated our Rating Distribution with effect from March 20, 2019 – Kindly refer the Disclaimer page, however for our erstwhile recommendations till March 19, 2019, the rating
distribution of the expected total return stands as (Buy – Over 25%, Accumulate – Over 10% , Hold – Upto 10%, Reduce – Below 10%, Sell – Underperforms the broad market indices or its
related universe).
2590
3037
3484
3931
4378
4825
29
-Ma
r-1
6
26
-Sep
-16
26
-Ma
r-1
7
23
-Sep
-17
23
-Ma
r-1
8
20
-Sep
-18
20
-Ma
r-1
9
BUY Hold SellAccumulate Reduce PriceTarget Price
Automobiles India Equity Research | Sector Update
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com, Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>, Reuters and DOWJONES.
ED: ANISH MATHEW SA: DHANANJAY SINHA March 27, 2019| 17
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com, Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>, Reuters and DOWJONES.
ED: ANISH MATHEW SA: DHANANJAY SINHA March 27, 2019| 19
TVS Motor RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE
Date Closing
Price TP
Period (months)
Rating Analyst
22-Jan-19 554 595 12m Accumulate Raghunandhan NL
27-Dec-18 550 595 12m Accumulate Raghunandhan NL
23-Oct-18 535 590 12m Accumulate Raghunandhan NL
8-Aug-18 533 630 12m Accumulate Raghunandhan NL
16-May-18 611 670 12m Accumulate Raghunandhan NL
31-Jan-18 697 670 12m Reduce Raghunandhan NL
1-Nov-17 709 670 12m Reduce Raghunandhan NL
4-Oct-17 654 550 12m Reduce Raghunandhan NL
4-Sep-17 614 480 12m Reduce Raghunandhan NL
11-Aug-17 537 480 12m Reduce Raghunandhan NL
27-Apr-17 503 370 12m Sell Mihir Jhaveri
3-Feb-17 391 320 12m Reduce Mihir Jhaveri
25-Jan-17 393 320 12m Reduce Mihir Jhaveri
7-Dec-16 361 320 12m Reduce Mihir Jhaveri
27-Jul-16 288 240 12m Reduce Kaushal Maroo
4-May-16 291 255 12m Reduce Kaushal Maroo
Source: Company, Emkay Research
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY CHART
Source: Bloomberg, Company, Emkay Research
Note:
We have updated our Rating Distribution with effect from March 20, 2019 – Kindly refer the Disclaimer page, however for our erstwhile recommendations till March 19, 2019, the rating
distribution of the expected total return stands as (Buy – Over 25%, Accumulate – Over 10% , Hold – Upto 10%, Reduce – Below 10%, Sell – Underperforms the broad market indices or its
related universe).
240
352
464
576
688
800
29
-Ma
r-1
6
26
-Sep
-16
26
-Ma
r-1
7
23
-Sep
-17
23
-Ma
r-1
8
20
-Sep
-18
20
-Ma
r-1
9
BUY Hold SellAccumulate Reduce PriceTarget Price
Automobiles India Equity Research | Sector Update
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com, Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>, Reuters and DOWJONES.
ED: ANISH MATHEW SA: DHANANJAY SINHA March 27, 2019| 20
Emkay Alpha Portfolio – Automobiles & Auto Ancillaries
EAP sector portfolio
Company Name BSE200 Weight
EAP Weight
OW/UW (%)
OW/UW (bps)
BSE200 Weight (Normalised)
Auto & Auto Ancillaries 6.48 6.48 0% 0 100.00
Amara Raja Batteries 0.10 0.16 65% 6 1.53
Apollo Tyres 0.12 0.19 53% 6 1.87
Ashok Leyland 0.21 0.00 -100% -21 3.31
Atul Auto 0.00 0.06 NA 6 0.00
Bajaj Auto 0.69 0.36 -47% -32 10.61
Bosch* 0.28 0.28 0% 0 4.39
Eicher Motors 0.48 0.22 -54% -26 7.45
Endurance Technologies* 0.05 0.05 0% 0 0.72
Escorts 0.00 0.00 NA 0 0.00
Exide Industries 0.17 0.37 114% 19 2.63
Hero Motocorp 0.57 0.27 -53% -30 8.84
Mahindra & Mahindra 1.06 1.32 24% 26 16.33
Maruti Suzuki India 1.48 1.74 17% 26 22.87
Motherson Sumi 0.30 0.49 66% 19 4.57
MRF* 0.20 0.20 0% 0 3.07
Tata Motors 0.53 0.53 0% 0 8.22
Tata Motors DVR* 0.07 0.07 0% 0 1.14
TVS Motor 0.16 0.16 0% 0 2.44
Source: Emkay Research
* Not under coverage: Equal Weight
Sector portfolio NAV (for future addition)
Returns by EAP on rolling basis
Performance NAV 3M 6M 12M
EAP - Automobiles & Auto Ancillaries 100
BSE 200 weighted portfolio 100
*Formal performance measurement of EAP starts on 1st April 2019
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Automobiles India Equity Research | Sector Update
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ED: ANISH MATHEW SA: DHANANJAY SINHA March 27, 2019| 22