Australian Wool Production Forecast Report August 2019 · 2019. 11. 21. · Australian Wool Production Forecast Report August 2019 5 | P a g e AWTA national wool test volumes data
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FURTHER INFORMATION Mr Russell Pattinson, National Committee Chairman
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to Australian Wool Innovation Limited (ABN 12 095 165 558).
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Australian Wool Production Forecast Report
Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee
Summary
• The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee forecasts that Australian shorn
wool production in 2019/20 will reach 285 mkg greasy. This is a 5.0% decline from the
levels in 2018/19. The decline is due to lower sheep shorn numbers.
• High adult slaughter rates in 2018/19, up 16% on 2017/18, and reported low marking rates
have contributed to a decrease in the number of sheep shorn.
• Seasonal conditions in key wool producing areas in western Victoria, southeast South
Australia and Western Australia are reasonable. However, significant parts of New South
Wales, Queensland, eastern Victoria, southern and eastern Tasmania and the pastoral
regions of South Australia continue to experience dry to drought conditions.
• The AWPFC’s estimate of shorn wool production in 2018/19 is 300 mkg, a 12.1% decline
on the 2017/18 season. The dry finish to the 2018/19 season in some areas resulted in
further falls in key wool test parameters since April. Average yield ended the season at
63.1% down 1.5% on 2017/18. Mean fibre diameter was down by 0.5 microns to 20.5
microns and staple length was down 2.2 mm. The season ending levels of these three
parameters were either at, or near, the lowest levels since the 2000/01 season.
• New South Wales is estimated to have the greatest decline in shorn wool production in
2018/19 with a 21.2% reduction from 2017/18 to 99.1 mkg greasy. Victoria declined by
9.0% to 66.9 mkg and South Australia by 8.7% to 54.3 mkg. Western Australia is estimated
to have produced 62.2 mkg greasy (down 4.5%) with smaller declines in Tasmania, (9.0
mkg, down 3.2%) and Queensland (8.1 mkg greasy, down 2.4%).
• AWTA volumes of greasy wool tested during 2018/19 were 11.7% lower than in 2017/18.
Volumes in most states declined on a year-on-year basis. The greatest decline occurred
in New South Wales (down 19.1%), followed by South Australia (down 9.7%), Victoria
(down 8.1%), Western Australia (down 6.2%) and Queensland (down 4.3%). Tasmania
was the only state to record an increase, up 3.6%.
August 2019
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• AWTA data showed a significant increase in the weight of wool tested at 16.5 microns and
finer (up 59.5%), at 17 microns (up 18.6%) and at 18 microns (up 5.6%). The 25 - 26
micron category (up 7.9%) was the only other to record an increase in the weight tested.
All other categories recorded falls.
• AWEX first-hand bales offered were 14.1% lower during 2018/19 compared with 2017/18.
• ABS wool receival data for Australia fell by 14.9% in 2018/19 compared with 2017/18.
Receivals in 2018/19 were at the lowest level since the ABS receival series began in 1973.
• ABS sheep turn-off data during 2018/19 showed a 16% increase in sheep slaughter, a 6%
decrease in lamb slaughter and a 49% decrease in live export. Total turn-off was 3% lower
compared with 2017/18.
• THE BOM outlook for August to October 2019 is for average to below average median
rainfall across much of Australia with above average maximum temperatures.
• Table 1 summarises the estimates and forecasts for Australia and Table 2 shows the
estimates and forecasts for each state.
Table 1: Summary of wool production estimates and forecasts for Australia
Parameter 2017/18
Final Estimate
2018/19 Final
Estimate
Change y-o-y (%)
2019/20 Second
Forecast
Change y-o-y (%)
Sheep Numbers Shorn (million)
76.8 72.5 -5.5% 68.2 -5.9%
Average Cut Per Head (kg)
4.45 4.13 -7.2% 4.19 +1.5%
Shorn Wool Production (mkg greasy)
341 300 -12.1% 285 -5.0%
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Table 2: Summary of wool production estimates and forecasts for individual states
• More detailed information on the shorn wool production by state in 2018/19 and 2019/20
can be found in Table A1 in the Appendix to this report.
• The Appendix also provides historical data for Australia, including sheep numbers shorn,
average cut per head and shorn wool production (Table A2) as well as the micron profile
(Table A3) since 1991/92.
Shorn wool production
(mkg greasy)NSW VIC WA SA TAS QLD National
2017/18 Final Estimate 125.7 73.5 65.1 59.5 9.3 8.3 341
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Figure 2: Australian fibre diameter profile – 2018/19 season compared with the 2014/15
to 2017/18 seasons
• Based on data by Wool Statistical Area (WSA), the volumes of wool tested in each state, except Tasmania, for the 2018/19 season declined on a year-on-year basis (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Volume of wool tested in the 2018/19 season compared with previous seasons. The percentage change is the 2018/19 season compared with the 2017/18 season.
• New South Wales recorded the largest decline in the volume of wool tested during 2018/19
(down 19.1%), followed by Queensland (down 11.3%), South Australia (down 9.7%),
Victoria (down 8.1%) and Western Australia (down 6.2%) (Table 4). Tasmania was the
only state to record an increase, up 3.6%.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Micron diameter
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
mkg greasy
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
NSW Victoria WesternAustralia
SouthAustralia
Tasmania Queensland Australia
mkg greasy
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
-19.1%
-8.1% -6.2%-9.7%
+3.6% - 11.3%
- 11.7%
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Table 4: AWTA test data volumes by state (based on Wool Statistical Area) for the
2018/19 season (mkg greasy)
• The AWTA Key Test data for the 2018/19 season showed the impact of the continuing dry
season on wool quality around Australia (Table 5).
• On a national basis, compared with the 2017/18 season, yields in 2018/19 were down by
1.5% to 63.1% and vegetable matter down by 0.4% to 2.1%. Fibre diameter was down by
0.5 µm to 20.5 µm. Staple length decreased by 2.2 mm to 83.6 mm and staple strength
was also lower at 33.2 N/kt down 1.3 N/kt.
Table 5: AWTA key test data statistics for the financial year - 2017/18 and 2018/19
• A graphical representation of the changes in fibre diameter (MFD), vegetable matter
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• Each coloured segment on the gauges represents one standard deviation with the
mean at 12 o-clock (centre). For MFD, VM, SL, YIELD and SS, the mean and standard
deviation are based on data from the 2000/01 season onwards. For TEAM 3 the mean
and standard deviation are based on data from the 2006/07 season onwards.
• The red line on each gauge is the mean for the 2018/19 season, while the blue line is
the mean for the 2017/18 season.
• Fibre diameter is at its lowest level since the 2000/01 season, while yield and staple
length are near their lowest levels since 2000/01.
Figure 4: AWTA Key Test Data (by sampling site) for Australian wool clip from the
2000/01 to 2018/19 seasons.
For 2019/20, AWTA data on test volumes was only available for July:
• The volumes of wool tested in July 2019 was 5.0% lower than in July 2018. This was
7% lower than the five-year average for July (2014/15 to 2018/19).
• Queensland (-14.1%) and South Australia (-13.5%) recorded the largest decreases,
with New South Wales down 8.6% and Victoria down 3.0%. Both Tasmania (up 0.2%)
and Western Australia (up 13.9%) recorded an increase in the volume of wool tested
compared with July 2018. However, in Western Australia the volume of wool tested in
July 2018 was unusually low (1,809 tonnes compared with the 2014/15 to 2017/18
five-year average of 2,791 tonnes).
AWTA Key Test Data (by sampling State) for Australia (Full year 2018-19)
19
20
21
22
23
MFD
80
85
90
SL
20
25
30
35
40
SS
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
VM
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
YIELD
TEAM3 H
TEAM2 H
40
50
60
70
80
TEAM3 H
(TY)
20.5
21.0
(LY)
MFD (21.2, 0.27)
(TY)
83.6
85.8
(LY)
SL (86.3, 1.27)
(TY)
33.2
34.5
(LY)
SS (33.5, 1.12)
(TY) 2.1
2.5 (LY)
VM (2.1, 0.21)
Notes.
Each measure is the year-to-date average. Values in brackets above the gauges are the mean and standard deviation respectively.Each coloured segment on the gauges represents one standard deviation with the mean at 12 o'clock (centre).
For the mean and standard deviation, n=18, except for TEAM3 H where n=13.Based on AWTA key test data, Livestock Dynamics analysis.
(TY)
63.1
64.6
(LY)
YIELD (64.4, 0.99)
(TY)
68.5
70.2
(LY)
TEAM3 H (71.3, 0.74)
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AWEX auction statistics
The AWEX auction statistics for the 2018/19 season show a reduction in first-hand wool
offered volumes compared with 2017/18 (Table 6).
• First-hand bales offered (i.e. excluding reoffers) for Australia were 14.1% lower during
2018/19.
• The most significant decreases were evident in New South Wales (down 21.6%) and
Queensland (down 15.1%), with Western Australia, Victoria and South Australia all down
by 10.0%. Tasmania was down by 9.6%.
• There was a 14.4% decrease in the volume of first-hand Merino wool offered across
Australia, and an 12.9% decrease in first-hand Crossbred wool offered. The share of
Merino wool of all first-hand offered wool was 78.5% in 2018/19 compared with 78.8% for
2017/18.
• The percentage reductions in the volume of first-hand offered Merino wool were similar
(within 2%) to the total reduction in first-hand wool offered in each state. However, there
were significant decreases in the volume of first-hand offered Crossbred wool in
Queensland (down 35.8%), New South Wales (down 19.2%) and WA (down 16.2%).
Smaller decreases occurred in Victoria (down 9.8%) South Australia (down 8.1%) and
Tasmania (down 6.6%).
• There was a 10% decrease in the volume of ‘Prem-shorn’ Merino fleece wool during
2018/49 (22.2 mkg) compared with 2017/18 (24.3 mkg).
• As a percentage share of the total, 10% of Australian first-hand bales offered were prem
shorn during 2018/19. On a state-by-state basis this ranged from 14% in South Australia
to 4% in Tasmania.
Table 6: AWEX Auction Statistics 2018/19
Note: Data on ‘prem shorn’ wool from AWEX is based on the assessed length of the wool being offered. it is defined as <85 - 75 mm, depending on micron and excluding weaners and lambs wool.
2018/19 NSW VIC WA SA TAS QLD AUST
First hand bales offered(% change on 2017/18)
-21.6% -10.0% -10.0% -10.0% -9.6% -15.1% -14.1%
Merino first hand offered(% change on 2017/18)
-22.3% -10.2% -9.5% -10.4% -11.3% -14.2% -14.4%
Crossbred first hand offered(% change on 2017/18)
-19.2% -9.8% -16.2% -8.1% -6.6% -35.8% -12.9%
Merino first hand offered(% share)
77.0% 66.3% 93.3% 80.2% 62.9% 96.9% 78.5%
Crossbred first hand offered(% share)
23.0% 33.7% 6.7% 19.8% 37.1% 3.1% 21.5%
Weight (mkg) 7.1 3.0 4.4 6.9 0.2 0.5 22.2
% share of total 10% 8% 10% 14% 4% 7% 10%
% change on 2017/18 -15% -6% -10% -3% 0% 0% -9%
Merino First Hand 'Prem' Shorn Fleece
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Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data
The ABS provide data on wool receivals and sheep and lamb turnoff.
Wool receivals
National wool receivals for Australia and by state of receival (note that this is not by state of
production) for 2018/19 compared with previous seasons are shown in Table 7.
• Wool receivals for Australia fell by 14.9% in 2018/19 which is a larger year-on-year
percentage decrease than both the AWTA test data and the AWEX first-hand offered data.
• Wool receivals for 2018/19 were the lowest for the past five seasons and 10.3% below the
five-year average. In fact, in 2018/19 wool receivals were at their lowest level since the
ABS wool receivals series began in 1973.
• Wool receivals decreased in all states. The largest falls occurred in Queensland (down
21.6%), South Australia (down 18.1%), New South Wales (down 16.2%), Victoria (down
14.4%), Western Australia (down 11.9%) and Tasmania (down 7.3%).
• Wool receivals in all states were below the five-year average.
Table 7: ABS Wool Receivals data
Sheep turn-off
Australian sheep and lamb turn-off statistics for the 2018/19 season covers sheep slaughter,
lamb slaughter and live exports and is compared with the 2017/18 season and the five-year
average from 2013/14 to 2017/18 (Table 8):
• There was a 16% increase in sheep slaughter and a 6% decrease in lamb slaughter during
2018/19 compared with 2017/18.
• The number of live sheep exported from Australia fell by 49% in 2018/19.
• Total turnoff of sheep and lambs during 2018/19 was 3% lower compared with 2017/18
Average Cut Per Head 0.0% 2.5% 3.5% 0.0% -3.7% 0.0% 1.5%
Shorn Wool Production -11.4% -0.3% -0.2% -2.0% -3.3% -17.3% -5.0%
2.20 76.80
Average Cut Per Head
(kg)4.40 4.30 4.40 5.00 3.90 3.80 4.45
Sheep Numbers Shorn
(million)28.30 17.20 14.80 11.90 2.40
8.30 341Shorn Wool Production
(mkg greasy)125.70 73.50 65.10 59.50 9.30
2.20 72.50
Average Cut Per Head
(kg)4.00 4.00 4.25 4.60 3.78 3.65 4.13
Sheep Numbers Shorn
(million)24.80 16.70 14.60 11.80 2.40
8.10 300Shorn Wool Production
(mkg greasy)99.10 66.90 62.20 54.30 9.00
Sheep Numbers Shorn
(million)22.00 16.30 14.10 11.60 2.40 1.80 68.20
3.65 4.19
Shorn Wool Production
(mkg greasy)87.80 66.70 62.10 53.20 8.70 6.70 285
Average Cut Per Head
(kg)4.00 4.10 4.40 4.60 3.64
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Historical Australian Production Figures
The tables below provide historical sheep shorn numbers, wool production, fleece weight and micron share statistics since 1991/92 for background information.
Table A2: Australian wool production statistics since 1991/92
Sheep Numbers
Shorn
Average Cut Per
Head
Shorn Wool
Production
(million) (kg) (mkg greasy)
1991-92 180.9 4.43 801
1992-93 178.8 4.56 815
1993-94 172.8 4.49 775
1994-95 156.2 4.37 682
1995-96 145.6 4.50 655
1996-97 152.0 4.35 661
1997-98 150.0 4.22 633
1998-99 153.6 4.33 665
1999-00 144.2 4.30 619
2000-01 139.5 4.31 602
2001-02 118.6 4.68 555
2002-03 116.6 4.28 499
2003-04 104.7 4.53 475
2004-05 106.0 4.49 475
2005-06 106.5 4.33 461
2006-07 101.4 4.24 430
2007-08 90.2 4.43 400
2008-09 79.3 4.52 362
2009-10 76.2 4.50 343
2010-11 76.2 4.53 345
2011-12 76.4 4.48 342
2012-13 78.8 4.47 352
2013-14 78.0 4.37 341
2014-15 76.9 4.50 346
2015-16 73.4 4.43 325
2016-17 74.3 4.58 340
2017-18 76.8 4.45 341
2018-19 72.5 4.13 300
2019-20f 68.2 4.19 285
Year
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Table A3: Australian micron profile of AWTA wool test volume statistics since 1991/92 (% share and average micron)