Australian Alps Liaison Committee/IUCN WCPA Mountains Initiative · 2013. 12. 4. · MEE and Evidence‐ based decision making • Clarify purpose of MEE and how results will be used

6/18/12

1

AustralianAlpsLiaisonCommittee/IUCNWCPAMountainsInitiativeAlbury12thJune2012

Professor Marc Hockings School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management University of Queensland Vice-Chair, IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas

6/18/12

2

InternationalContext 2010BiodiversityIndicatorResults

CoverageofProtectedAreas1911‐2011

6/18/12

3

MEEandEvidence‐baseddecisionmaking

• Questionsoverqualitativeassessments• thestatusof“expert”knowledge

• (justanopinionsurvey)• shiftingbaselines,• framingandanchoringeffects

• bias(managerstellthemselves/donorswhattheywanttohear)

• Internalvsexternalvalidity• RelationshipbetweenMEEandmonitoring• Movetowardsevidence‐baseddecisionmaking(derivedfrommedicine)• Whatformofevidenceisappropriate(legalormedicalmodel)

Theissueofevidence

MEEandEvidence‐baseddecisionmaking

• People(especiallybiophysicalscientists)oftenpreferquantitativedata• botharesubjecttoepistemicandlinguisticuncertainty• statisticsisusedataddressepistemicuncertaintywithquantitativedata• otherapproachesneededforqualitativedataelicitedfromexperts(controlframing,useofmultipleexperts)• issueofvalidityofthemeasure(Internalandexternalvalidity)• notaquestionofeither/orbutwhichsuitsthecase(Mixedmethodsapproaches)

QuantitativeandQualitativeevidence

6/18/12

4

MEEandEvidence‐baseddecisionmaking

• Howtodecidewhethertousequantitativeorqualitativedata?

• subjectmatter• scaleandtimeframe• availableresourcesanddata• risk

QuantitativeandQualitativeevidence

QualitativeandQuantitativedata

• Itisnormallypossibletoassessanyaspectofmanagementusingeitherquantitativeorqualitativeindicatorsbutsomesuitonedatatypeortheother• Quantitative–biophysicalandeconomicvalues,threats,statusofthesevaluesandthreats,outputindicators(allthesetendtorequirelong‐termmonitoring)• Qualitative–socialandculturalvalues,stakeholderrelations,appropriatenessofmanagementprocesses

SubjectMatter

6/18/12

5

QualitativeandQuantitativedata

• Evaluationsatsitelevelcanincludemoredetailedresults(eitherqualitativeorquantitativefrommonitoringprograms)• Largescale,multi‐siteevaluationsaremorelikelytorelyonqualitativedata(espwherequantitativedataavailabilityvariesacrosssites)• One‐offevaluationsaremorelikelytorelyonqualitativedata

ScaleandTimeFrame

QualitativeandQuantitativedata

• Resourcesformonitoringandevaluationoftenseverelyconstrained• Continuityandsustainabilityarekeyissues• Quantitativedatafrommonitoringoftenmoreexpensivethanqualitative,expertdrivenassessments• Butneedtoinvestingoodprocess,evenforqualitativeassessments

Availableresourcesanddata

6/18/12

6

QualitativeandQuantitativedata

• Thehighertherisk,themorethatshouldbeinvestedinensuringhighqualitydataasevidence• Risk/consequenceincreasesas:

• thevaluesofthesiteincrease(eg.siteswithsignificantpopulationofthreatenedspecies);• public/politicalsensitivityofthesiteincrease• significanceofdecisionsarisingformtheevaluationincreases• uncertaintyorignoranceincreases

Risk/consequence

QualitativeandQuantitativedata

• Reducelinguisticuncertaintyandframingerrorsbyclearlyspecifyterms,scalesandtimeframesforassessment• Incorporatea“chainofevidence”aspartoftheassessmentprocesswhereverpossible• Trainstaffandstakeholdersintheassessmentprocess–emphasisingtheroleofevidenceintheevaluation

Improvingdataquality

6/18/12

7

MEEandEvidence‐baseddecisionmaking

• ClarifypurposeofMEEandhowresultswillbeused• Identifykeyinternalandexternalstakeholdersandinvolvethemindevelopmentprocess• Adopt,adaptordevelopevaluationsystem

• considerscale,depth,integrationintomanagementsystems• selectindicatorsandassessmentprocess(considerthenatureofthedatatobeused)• considercriticalissuesandappropriatemanagementstandardsandreflecttheseinMEEsystem

MEEprocessanddataqualityandutility

QualitativeandQuantitativedata

• Assembleevidenceinadvanceoftheassessment• Requiredocumentationofevidenceinsupportoftheassessment• Valueofgroupassessment(esp.withspecialistsfromdifferentdisciplinaryareas)• Valueofinvolvingstakeholders• Peerreview• Audit,auditaudit

Improvingdataquality

6/18/12

8

MEEandEvidence‐baseddecisionmaking

• Presentationofresultstostaffandstakeholders• Availabilityofdataandanalysestostaff• Integrationwithplanning,workprogrammingandbudgetingsystems• Identificationofpolicyandprogramresponses• Preparationofreports

• consideraudiencesandrelevantcontent

Usingtheresults

CaseStudies

•  WorldHeritage

•  StateoftheParks

•  GBRMPOutlook

•  BiodiversityOutcomesStudy

6/18/12

9

EnhancingourHeritageProject

•  Strongdesireforevidence‐basedassessment(espgivenpoliticalcontextofassessment)

•  Moderate/extensivebiophysicalandsocio‐economicmonitoringdataavailablefromCharlesDarwinResearchStationandresearchstudies

•  Consistentassessmentsystemacrossallindicatorsandresultspresentedinunderstandableform

GalapagosMarineReserve

6/18/12

10

IntegridadEcologica

Condi:onofecosystemsinsubzonesoftheGMR

6/18/12

11

•  Strongdesireforevidence‐basedassessment(espgivenpoliticalcontextofassessment)

•  Moderate/extensivebiophysicalandsocio‐economicmonitoringdataavailablefromCharlesDarwinResearchStationandresearchstudies

•  Consistentassessmentsystemacrossallindicatorsandresultspresentedinunderstandableform

•  Communityandstakeholderworkshops•  Extensiveliteraturereviewtoincorporate

researchresults•  Longtimeframe(>12months)

GalapagosMarineReserve

StateofParksStateoftheParkdatausedinassessments(NSW)

6/18/12

12

StateoftheParks Evidencevariesaccordingtotopic

StateoftheParks

• ConductedinallNationalParksevery2years• Short,mediumandlongtermcomponents• Assessmentpreparationwithfocusoncompilationandexaminationofrelevantevidencetosupporttheassessment• Workshopprocessthatfocussesonpresentationandconsiderationofevidence(over2days)• Systemlevelassessmentconductedbyexternalreviewteamin2010/11• Linkedtoprogramdevelopmentandworkplanningandmanagementplanning

AEMAPPS,Colombia

6/18/12

13

AWHACPresentation11thAugust,2010

GreatBarrierReefMarinePark

OutlookReport

ManagementEffectiveness

AWHACPresentation11thAugust,2010

OutlookReportStructure1.  CurrenthealthoftheecosystemwithintheGreatBarrier

ReefRegionandoftheecosystemoutsidethatregiontotheextentitaffectsthatregion;

2.  Currentbiodiversity;3.  Commercialandnon‐commercialuse;4.  Riskstotheecosystem;5.  Currentresilienceoftheecosystem6.  Existingmeasurestoprotectandmanagetheecosystem;7.  Factorsinfluencingthecurrentandprojectedfuture

environmental,economicandsocialvalues;8.  Long‐termoutlookfortheecosystem;

6/18/12

14

AWHACPresentation11thAugust,2010

•  biodiversityprotection•  heritage

•  waterquality

•  climatechange

•  coastaldevelopment

•  commercialmarinetourism

•  defence•  fishing(commercialand

recreational)•  portsandshipping•  recreation(notincluding

fishing)•  scientificresearch•  traditionaluseofmarine

resources

Managementtopics

AWHACPresentation11thAugust,2010

AssessmentProcess

1.  Assessmentcriteria(48)developedinconsultationwithGBRMPA–basedonWCPAManagementEffectivenessFramework

2.  Capacityto“roll‐up”assessmentsbyissueorevaluationtopic

3.  EvidencebaseassembledbyGBRMPAandstakeholders

4.  ParticipationinOutlookworkshop5.  Draftassessmentbyindependent

assessors6.  Reviewofdraftassessmentwith

agencystaffandstakeholders7.  Revisionofassessment8.  Reportdeveloped

6/18/12

15

AWHACPresentation11thAugust,2010

DistinctivefeaturesofOutlook•  Evidence‐based•  Chainofevidencetransparent•  On‐lineinformationbase•  Peerreview

WCPA-SSC Joint Task Force on Biodiversity and Protected Areas

Stephen Woodley and Thomas Brooks Co-Chairs, Joint Task Force on Biodiversity and Protected Areas

6/18/12

16

BiodiversityOutcomes Systematicreview

Population HabitatContinent Studies Effective Studies EffectiveAfrica 18 14 13 9

Asia 8 5 10 8

Europe 5 3 2 2

LatinAmerica

3 3 25 24

NorthAmerica

5 3 1 1

Oceania 2 1 1 1

Global 0 0 5 5

Total 41 29 57 50

BiodiversityOutcomes Systematicreview

t

6/18/12

17

BiodiversityOutcomes SystematicReview

PreviousstudiesEcosystemlevelanalyses‐80%increasedorstable

Bruner et al. (2001)

Science

6/18/12

18

Previousstudies

Thechangeinpercentcoralcoverfrom2004to2005insideandoutsideofMPAs(SeligandBruno,2010)

Previousstudies Reducingtherateofloss

Butchart et al 2012

6/18/12

19

BiodiversityandPAOutcomesTaskForce

• PopulationtimeseriesfromLivingPlanetIndex,IanCraigie,MeganBarnesandJonasGeldmannandtheTaskForce• Morethan4800populationtimeseriesfromPAsassembled• Assembledlargedatasetofpotentialpredictorvariables(PAandlandscapeattributes,PAmanagementvariables,socio‐economicvariables)• ModellingofthedatasetwillfollowmethodsdevelopedbyCraigie(2010)• Resultsavailablesoon???

Globalanalysisofpopulationtimeseries

• ManagementEffectiveness• DrFionaLeverington(UQ)• DrLaurenCoad(UniversityofOxford)• WCPAManagementEffectivenessSpecialistGroup

• StateoftheParks• PeterStathis,AndrewGrowcock,TonyVarcoe,KellyRaymondandstafffromNSWParksandWildlifeandParksVictoria• CarlyCook

• SystematicReview• JonasGeldman(UnivofCopenhagen)• MeganBarnes(UQ)• DrIanCraigie(JCU)• ProfNeilBurgess(UnivofCopenhagen)

• BiodiversityOutcomes• DrStephenWoodleyandIUCN/SSCTaskForce• DrIanCraigie,MeganBarnes,JonasGeldman,LukeHarrison

• BiodiversityTargetandIBA/AZEanalysis• DrStuartButchart,DrJornScharlemannandacastofdozens

Acknowledgement

6/18/12

20

IntroductiontoMEE

Thank‐you

Questions