Austin Hotel & Lodging Austin Hotel & Lodging Association Association 2011 Texas Trends 2011 Texas Trends ® ® Hotel Industry Report Hotel Industry Report “ “ Journey Through Uncertainty Journey Through Uncertainty ” ” November 9, 2011 November 9, 2011
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Austin Hotel & Lodging Austin Hotel & Lodging AssociationAssociation
2011 Texas Trends2011 Texas Trends®®Hotel Industry ReportHotel Industry Report
““Journey Through UncertaintyJourney Through Uncertainty””November 9, 2011November 9, 2011
2009 – When Will Things Get Better?2010 – Emerging From Crisis 2011 – Journey Through Uncertainty
Are We Having Fun Yet?
Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline
I. The Economy
II. Lodging Forecast
III. Austin Submarkets
IV. Journey Through Uncertainty
I. The Economy
II. Lodging Forecast
III. Austin Submarkets
IV. Journey Through Uncertainty
U.S. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT LEVELSU.S. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT LEVELS…………are starting to gainare starting to gain
8 Million Jobs Lost 8 Million Jobs Lost –– 6Years From 6Years From PeakPeak--toto--PeakPeak
Source: Moody’s Analytics
We’re here
Unemployment Comparison Unemployment Comparison –– September 2011September 2011
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
United States 9.1% 8.8%
Texas 8.5%
--
Dallas -- 8.4%
--
--
--
8.4%
Austin 7.4%
Fort Worth 8.2%
Houston 8.6%
San Antonio 7.9%
Seasonally Adjusted
Uncertainties That Affect Recovery Uncertainties That Affect Recovery
•• U.S. Debt Crisis U.S. Debt Crisis –– S&PS&P’’s Ratings Rating
•• Global Financial Crisis Global Financial Crisis
•• Japan Japan –– Long Term ImpactLong Term Impact
•• Middle East & Libya Middle East & Libya
•• Price of Oil & GasPrice of Oil & Gas
•• U.S. CongressU.S. Congress
•• 2012 Election2012 Election
United States: January vs. April 2011United States: January vs. April 2011
EmploymentPersonal Income GDP
CPI (Inflation)
Year January April January April January April January April
2011 1.7% 1.1% 4.0% 3.7% 3.9% 3.3% 1.5% 2.1%
2012 2.4% 2.3% 3.8% 4.7% 4.0% 4.3% 2.5% 2.0%
2013 2.4% 2.6% 4.6% 5.0% 3.7% 3.9% 3.2% 2.9%
2014 2.6% 2.7% 3.1% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 2.7% 2.7%
2015 1.4% 1.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3%
Source: Moody’s Analytics
United States: April vs. July 2011United States: April vs. July 2011
EmploymentPersonal Income GDP CPI (Inflation)
Year April July April July April July April July
2011 1.1% 1.1% 3.7% 2.1% 3.3% 2.5% 2.1% 3.0%
2012 2.3% 1.7% 4.7% 4.0% 4.3% 3.8% 2.0% 1.9%
2013 2.6% 2.5% 5.0% 5.0% 3.9% 4.1% 2.9% 2.5%
2014 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.1% 3.5% 2.7% 2.7%
2015 1.7% 2.0% 2.6% 3.0% 2.3% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4%
Source: Moody’s Analytics
United States: July vs. October 2011United States: July vs. October 2011
EmploymentPersonal Income GDP
CPI (Inflation)
Year July October July October July October July October
2011 1.1% 1.0% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 1.8% 3.0% 3.0%
2012 1.7% 0.7% 4.0% 4.9% 3.8% 2.7% 1.9% 1.8%
2013 2.5% 1.7% 5.0% 4.0% 4.1% 3.5% 2.5% 2.4%
2014 3.0% 3.1% 4.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.8% 2.7% 3.0%
2015 2.0% 2.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.5% 3.5% 2.4% 2.4%
Source: Moody’s Analytics
Austin: April vs. JulyAustin: April vs. July
EmploymentPersonal Income GMP
CPI (Inflation)
Year April July April July April July April July
2011 1.5% 2.0% 3.9% 2.9% 6.2% 5.9% 2.3% 3.4%
2012 3.0% 3.0% 4.1% 4.1% 6.8% 6.9% 2.5% 2.4%
2013 4.0% 4.0% 4.2% 3.8% 6.3% 6.4% 3.4% 3.0%
2014 4.8% 4.9% 5.1% 4.0% 5.4% 5.5% 2.8% 2.9%
2015 3.9% 4.0% 5.3% 4.2% 4.9% 4.8% 2.5% 2.5%
Source: Moody’s Analytics
Austin: July vs. October 2011Austin: July vs. October 2011
EmploymentPersonal Income GMP
CPI (Inflation)
Year July October July October July October July October