Auroop R Ganguly Oak Ridge National Laboratory Email: gangulyar@ornl

Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Regional and decadal analysis of climate change induced extreme hydrometeorological stresses informs adaptation and mitigation policies

Auroop R GangulyOak Ridge National Laboratory

Email: [email protected]

21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society

January 15th 2009; Phoenix, AZ, USA

ORNL Co-Authors:Esther S ParishNagendra Singh

Karsten SteinhaeuserDavid J Erickson IIIMarcia BranstetterAnthony W KingErin J Middleton

A Climate Change War Game

2 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

A role playing exercise– Four largest emitters discuss climate policy

– UN Secretary General presses for emission target

– Players balance national interests and global goal

A Climate Change War GameDescription

The Players– Diverse backgrounds

Climate scientists Security strategists Environmental policy experts Business leaders

– Forty national delegates United States European Union China India

– UN Team Center for a New American Security John Podesta: UN Secretary General UN Sec. Gen.’s Science Team Rest of the world (observer status)

Coverage– The journal Nature (Blogs, News) – ABC News Documentary– Videocon by IPCC chairman Pachauri– Prominent players from US, EU, Asia

John Podesta (left) of CNAS, the UN secretary general in the game, was Clinton’s White House chief of staff and led Obama’s transition team

3 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

Define climate change for national security

Educate players with diverse backgrounds

Observe/understand negotiation process

A Climate Change War GameObjectives

ORNL provided the climate science

4 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

The year is 2015… Natural Hazards / Climate Refugees

– Environmental Refugees from Bangladesh– Category 5 Hurricane in Miami

Climate Change is “real”– Impacts on lives and economy – Public calls for action

UN Secretary General calls for action– 2012 Copenhagen provides background– Urgent meeting of four largest emitters– Prelude to major global agreement

A Climate Change War GameThe Premise

Photos from http://climateinteractive.wordpress.com/2008/09/24/supporting-the-clout-and-climate-change-war-game/

5 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

A Climate Change War GamePublicity

Nature Blogs:http://blogs.nature.com/news/blog/events/climate_war_game/

“Much as the "hockey stick graph" became an icon for global warming itself, the "Angry Red Chart" became a symbol of the science that was driving negotiations back in the year 2015” (Jeff Tollefson, Nature Blogs)

6 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

UN Secretary General charges the country delegates with four tasks

The Four Negotiation Areas– Natural (e.g., water) resources scarcity

– Hazards and humanitarian aid

– Migration and population shifts

– Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions

Adaptation & Mitigation– Adaptation: “Manage the Unavoidable”

– Mitigation: “Avoid the Unmanageable”

CNAS Website for Climate Change War Game:http://www.cnas.org/node/149

7 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

http://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/WarGaming/

ORNL Climate Change WarGaming Website

8 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

Climate Science Support by ORNL

CCSM3 Climate Model: One of the primary climate models used for IPCC AR4

IPCC SRES A1FI (fossil fuel intensive) scenario: Initially considered “extreme”, recent emissions agree with A1FI

Global Projections: 1.4o spatial grids with global coverage; Daily to 6-hourly for 2000–2099; T85 Gaussian Grid

Regional Assessments: Focus on four regions which are the largest emitters for the four sets of players

Decadal Projections: Data analysis for decadal change (e.g., change in decadal averages or extremes)

Climate Extremes: Extreme hydrometeorological stresses or events caused or exacerbated by climate change

9 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

Global Assessments: The 'Angry Red Chart'

CourtesyNature Blog (Tollefson)CNAS (John Podesta) Pew Center (Gulledge)CNAS (Sharon Burke)

Nature Blogs

10 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

11 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

12 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

Regional Extreme Events

13 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

14 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

Regional Extreme Events

15 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

Regional Extreme Impacts

16 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

Plausible Policy-Relevant Insights

China: Water scarcity and food stress, especially in the East

India: Water stress from de-glaciation & mega-delta floods

US: Midwest heat waves; Water stress in West (dry & warm)

Europe: Regional warming; Water stress in Spain & Portugal

Water emerges as the central issue for impacts

Insights are exemplary rather than exhaustive and rather preliminary. Refer AMS abstract and README in ORNL’s climate wargaming website.

17 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

Follow-up A1FI/CCSM3 climate insights

Higher mean, but greater geographic variability and uncertainty, of change and extremes

Statistically significant increase in global temperatures compared to other scenarios in mid to late 21st century

Larger temperature changes and more intense heat waves in most regions of the globe in the 21st century

Significant bias and variance at regional scales even for decadal averaged statistics of change and extremes

Uncertainty computed from recent projections and observations larger (statistically significant) than ensembles

Clearer signal for temperature change and related extremes but uncertainty dominates for hydrology

Manuscripts under preparation

18 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

Lessons Learnt

Relevance of the science– Global assessments useful for emissions policy and international

treaties, laws, or norms– Regional assessments useful for adaptation decisions and bilateral

or multilateral agreements– Policy makers may not question climate science, especially at

global scale, but may need justification for local impacts– Climate extremes (both extreme stresses and extreme events) are

among the most relevant for policy negotiations

Importance of uncertainty – Uncertainty information is useful and actionable, especially since

policy makers routinely deal with uncertainty– Uncertainty cannot be an excuse for inaction as delayed action can

cause larger change and more damaging impacts– Quantification of known uncertainty translates to risk assessments

while characterization of unknown uncertainty supports policy– Uncertainty may provide worse case situations for infrastructure

design or most likely / best case for resource allocation

19 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

Translating Science to Policy

The “angry red chart” visual motivated much of the global consensus around emissions– Example: The policy-makers from all four regions tried desperately

to agree on some common language to reduce emissions

Adaptation decisions and policies were based on hard realities on the ground– Example: Advanced US capabilities for disaster management

around the globe were a primary consideration that dominated the discussions around hazards and humanitarian aid

Clear depiction of regional extreme stresses or events, including uncertainty, motivated bilateral and trilateral agreements, leading to global consensus– Example: The India team utilized regional maps of hydrologic /

water extremes and stresses to motivate delegates from the US team to extract international norms regarding water treaties, in spite of some resistance from the China team

20 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix,

Arizona

ORNL Websites and Contributors

Acknowledgments(ORNL: Alphabetical): Budhendra L BhaduriJohn B Drake Gary K Jacobs Aaron Myers Olufemi A OmitaomuBlair RossAlexander SorokineThomas J Wilbanks

For related publications and presentations:Contact Auroop R Ganguly ([email protected])

http://www.geocities.com/auroop_ganguly

ORNL Websites1. Climate Extremeshttp://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/ClimateExtremes

2. Climate Change War Gamehttp://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/WarGaming

3. Climate Change & National Security http://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/NationalSecurity