August 26, 2020
August 26, 2020
About this Report• We know that during times of uncertainty, access to real-time data is crucial. In this report, the
Downtown Denver Partnership analyzes dozens of high-quality, high-frequency data sources that help tell the impact of this historic pandemic on Downtown Denver, our businesses, and our community.
• This report will be updated every two weeks and will be available at downtowndenver.com. Please contact Emily Brett at [email protected] with any questions or comments.
• Below is a summary chart of what you can expect from the three major sources of economic data from the Downtown Denver Partnership:
Report Title Release Schedule GeographyHigh-Freqency Covid-19 Impact Data
Every two weeks (around the 5th and 20th of each month)
Mostly City/Metro, some Downtown Denver
Quarterly Economic Updates
About 6 weeks after the end of each quarter Downtown Denver
State of Downtown Denver Annually in May Downtown Denver
Summary Page 1 of 2 – August 26• Pedestrian activity is slowly increasing, but still well below normal levels. Monthly traffic in July was down 75% from
2019, compared to being down 80% in June, 82% in May and 85% in April. Pedestrian traffic is settling into the same pre-pandemic pattern of highest traffic on Fridays and Saturdays, lower on Sunday, and moderate levels Monday through Thursday.
• Google movement data for Denver shows that while people are spending more time outside of the home than in April and May, levels have stayed somewhat consistent through June, July and August, although slightly more people are visiting retail and transit locations.
o Overall, the most recent full week of data shows that people are spending 9% more time at home than the January/February baseline. When people do go out, they are making 26% fewer visits to retail places, 44% fewer visits to transit stations, and 38% fewer visits to workplaces from baseline.
o Weekends continue to look more like the baseline of January and February than weekdays do with time spent at home only up 4% on Saturdays and 3% on Sundays. The average weekend worker is much more likely to visit their place of work while the average weekday worker is much more likely to remain working at home. Also, visits to retail are down significantly more compared to baseline over the weekend, suggesting that typical weekday retail visits are returning faster than typical weekend retail visits. This pattern calls for more evaluation, but two potential reasons could be a lower pre-pandemic base of weekday retail visits and a higher dependence on special events for weekend retail visits.
o The weekday office worker has not returned to the office in significant numbers since May, with visits to workplaces on Wednesdays still down 46% from baseline – basically unchanged from the end of May but up significantly from a low of -60% from baseline in April.
Summary Page 2 of 2 – August 26• In-restaurant diner data from OpenTable shows seated diners are slowly returning to restaurants in Denver, with total
seated diners down an average of -47% from last year so far for the month of August (slightly better than the US average of -53% month-to-date).
• Downtown Denver hotels are welcoming more guests, with the occupancy rate of available hotel rooms at 31% in July, up from a historic low of 9.5% in April. There were close to 85,000 occupied hotel room nights in July, up from only 14,014 in April, but only one third of 2019’s July total of 245,120 occupied hotel room nights. We are seeing total available room nights increase to pre-pandemic levels after 100,000 room nights were taken off the market in the spring, showing that almost all hotels in downtown are now open and accepting reservations.
• Unemployment in the Denver Metro Area was 11.0% in June, basically even with the national rate of 11.1%. Denver now ranks in the middle (#17 lowest) of the top 30 labor markets in terms of unemployment rate, when pre-pandemic Denver was tied with Austin and San Francisco for the lowest unemployment rate among the top 30 largest labor markets. However, it is too early to tell how Denver’s recovery will stack up against other cities. New metro area unemployment data for July will be released in the next week (on September 2).
• Unemployment in the State of Colorado dropped to a promising 7.4% in July, significantly lower than the national rate of 10.2%.
• Total Labor Force is an important metric to look at as we try to assess how the pandemic is impacting population growth, and thus future growth potential, in Metro Denver. Population growth has been a huge economic driver for Metro Denver in recent years as the total labor force has risen sharply. While total labor force dropped in March and April as people exited the workforce, June numbers look promising with labor force growth in Metro Denver much higher than the national number. It is too early to draw any conclusions, but we will be watching this number closely.
Source: IKE counters/DDP Geography: 16th Street Mall
How many people are walking on the 16th Street Mall?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1-Feb
8-Feb
15-Feb
22-Feb
29-Feb
7-Mar
14-Mar
21-Mar
28-Mar
4-Apr
11-Apr
18-Apr
25-Apr
2-May
9-May
16-May
23-May
30-May
6-Jun
13-Jun
20-Jun
27-Jun
4-Jul
11-Jul
18-Jul
25-Jul
1-Aug
8-Aug
15-Aug
22-Aug
Pedestrian Activity Index (sample of total pedestrians) on 16th Street Mall
Counters down due to racial
equality protests
Source: IKE counters/DDP Geography: 16th Street Mall
How many people are walking on the 16th Street Mall?
-45%
-85%-82% -80%
-75%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%March April May June July
Change in Total Monthly Pedestrians, 2019 to 2020
Source: Google Mobility Data Geography: City and County of Denver
Google data
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2/17/2020 3/17/2020 4/17/2020 5/17/2020 6/17/2020 7/17/2020 8/17/2020
Change from Baseline - All Denver Data
Retail & Recreation Grocery & Pharmacy Parks Transit Stations Workplaces Residential
Source: Google Mobility Data Geography: City and County of Denver
Where are people spending their time?
-26
-44-38
9
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
17-Fe
b
24-Fe
b2-
Mar
9-Mar
16-M
ar
23-M
ar
30-M
ar6-
Apr
13-Ap
r
20-Ap
r
27-Ap
r
4-May
11-M
ay
18-M
ay
25-M
ay1-
Jun
8-Ju
n
15-Ju
n
22-Ju
n
29-Ju
n6-
Jul
13-Ju
l
20-Ju
l
27-Ju
l
3-Au
g
10-Au
g
Weekly Data - Average Change in Visits
Retail Transit Stations Workplaces Residential
Are weekday workers returning to the office?
Source: Google Mobility Data Geography: City and County of Denver
0 2 2 0
-43
-57 -59 -60 -59 -58 -58-55
-51 -50 -48 -46 -45 -45 -45 -45 -46 -45 -46 -46 -47 -47 -46
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
2/1
9/2
020
2/2
6/2
020
3/4
/2020
3/1
1/2
020
3/1
8/2
020
3/2
5/2
020
4/1
/2020
4/8
/2020
4/1
5/2
020
4/2
2/2
020
4/2
9/2
020
5/6
/2020
5/1
3/2
020
5/2
0/2
020
5/2
7/2
020
6/3
/2020
6/1
0/2
020
6/1
7/2
020
6/2
4/2
020
7/1
/2020
7/8
/2020
7/1
5/2
020
7/2
2/2
020
7/2
9/2
020
8/5
/2020
8/1
2/2
020
8/1
9/2
020
Change in Visits from Baseline - Denver - Wednesday Only
Retail & Recreation Transit Stations Workplaces Residential
Source: Google Mobility Data Geography: City and County of Denver
What about weekends vs weekdays?
-21-23 -24 -24
-28
-34
-27
-44-47 -46 -47
-45
-20-18
1012 12 12 11
4 3
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Average change in visits over past 30 days by day of week
Retail & Recreation Workplaces Residential
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
18-Feb
25-Feb
3-Mar
10-Mar
17-Mar
24-Mar
31-Mar
7-Apr
14-Apr
21-Apr
28-Apr
5-May
12-May
19-May
26-May
2-Jun
9-Jun
16-Jun
23-Jun
30-Jun
7-Jul
14-Jul
21-Jul
28-Jul
4-Aug
11-Aug
18-Aug
Year over Year Change in Seated Diners
United States Denver
Source: Open Table State of the Industry Geography: City of Denver and US
Dining in at Restaurants
Avg. Feb Avg. March Avg. April Avg. May Avg. June Avg. JulyAvg. Aug (MTD)
United States 1 -57 -100 -92 -68 -61 -53
Denver -1 -57 -100 -98 -66 -54 -47
66.70% 70.90%
31.60%
9.50%
20.70%
27.80%31.40%
64.40%
72.70%77.20%
81.80% 83.30%88.80%
91.30%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY
RevP
AR
Occ
upan
cy %
2019 v 2020 Occupancy % and RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room)
2020 - Occ% 2019 - Occ% 2020 - RevPAR 2019 - RevPAR
Downtown Denver Hotel Market, 2020 vs 2019
Source: Rocky Mountain Lodging Reports Geography: Downtown Denver
Downtown Denver Hotel Market, 2020
285,138268,400
245,544
147,374 149,832
180,754
269,218
190,240 190,349
77,569
14,01430,970
50,247
84,584
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Jan Feb March April May June July
Room
Nig
hts
Available vs. Occupied Room Nights, Downtown Denver
AVAILABLE ROOM NIGHTS OCCUPIED ROOM NIGHTS
Denver International Airport Passenger Traffic
Source: Denver International Airport
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
DEN Total Passengers
2017 2018 2019 2020
Unemployment Rates by Geographic Area
Unemployment Rates by Month, 2020
Denver (City)
Denver (Metro)
ColoradoUnited States
Jan 2.8 2.7 2.5 3.6
Feb 2.8 2.8 2.5 3.5
Mar 5.3 5.2 5.2 4.4
Apr 13.4 12.3 12.2 14.7
May 11.5 10.5 10.2 13.3
Jun 11.9 11.0 10.5 11.1
Jul 7.4 10.2
Source: BLS Geography: Various
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Unemployment Rates by Month, 2020
Denver (Metro) Colorado United States
Top 30 Metros by Labor Force, Ranked by June 2020 Unemployment RateSource: BLS Geography: Metro Areas
MetroTotal Labor Force,
June 2019Total Labor Force,
June 2020May, 2019 May, 2020 June, 2019 June, 2020
Change June 2019 to June
2020Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim 6,692,809 6,506,445 3.7 19.3 4.1 18.1 14Detroit-Warren-Dearborn 2,159,216 2,053,738 3.8 23.8 4.4 17.8 13.4New York-Newark-Jersey City 9,961,096 9,887,401 3.4 15.3 3.5 17.0 13.5Boston-Cambridge-Nashua 2,852,718 2,743,087 2.6 16.2 2.9 16.9 14Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford 1,364,425 1,302,852 2.9 21.1 3.2 16.5 13.3Chicago-Naperville-Elgin 4,930,924 5,006,583 3.4 15.3 4.1 15.6 11.5Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario 2,055,848 2,055,190 3.5 15.1 4.2 14.3 10.1Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington 3,125,601 3,119,025 3.8 13.7 4.1 14.0 9.9San Diego-Carlsbad 1,582,682 1,580,385 2.8 15.2 3.3 13.9 10.6San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward 2,574,357 2,515,312 2.3 12.9 **2.8** 12.6 9.8Pittsburgh 1,216,835 1,178,566 3.9 13.6 4.4 12.6 8.2Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro 1,322,096 1,355,300 3.4 14 3.8 11.4 7.6Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach 3,144,322 2,940,463 2.8 13.4 3 11.3 8.3Denver-Aurora-Lakewood 1,690,123 1,713,692 2.5 10.5 **2.8** 11.0 8.2Columbus 1,102,941 1,095,382 3.2 11 3.8 9.9 6.1Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land 3,420,393 3,395,505 3.4 13.9 4 9.9 5.9Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale 2,490,205 2,471,241 4 8.3 4.4 9.7 5.3St. Louis 1,490,157 1,456,573 3 11.3 3.4 9.7 6.3Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue 2,163,471 2,223,411 3.2 15.3 3.4 9.7 6.3Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington 2,037,819 2,048,839 2.6 10.1 3.1 9.2 6.1Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater 1,554,392 1,486,272 3.1 12.2 3.4 9.2 5.8Cincinnati 1,141,322 1,127,725 3.3 11.2 4.1 9.0 4.9Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell 3,088,537 2,990,486 3.2 9.9 3.6 8.6 5San Antonio-New Braunfels 1,202,628 1,196,498 2.8 12.7 3.3 8.5 5.2Washington-Arlington-Alexandria 3,489,162 3,437,663 3 8.9 3.3 8.4 5.1Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington 3,960,641 3,957,398 2.9 12.3 3.5 8.4 4.9Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia 1,377,278 1,321,828 3.5 13.2 3.8 8.4 4.6Baltimore-Columbia-Towson 1,536,254 1,501,034 3.5 9.7 3.9 8.0 4.1Kansas City 1,152,837 1,133,613 3 10.8 3.3 7.8 4.5Austin-Round Rock 1,234,994 1,214,563 2.4 11.4 **2.8** 7.5 4.7
Labor Force Growth
1,300,000
1,350,000
1,400,000
1,450,000
1,500,000
1,550,000
1,600,000
1,650,000
1,700,000
1,750,00020
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Total Labor Force, 2010 to 2020, Metro Denver and US
labor force, Denver Metro labor force, US, in 100s
1,500,000
1,550,000
1,600,000
1,650,000
1,700,000
1,750,000
2019,Dec
2020,Jan
2020,Feb
2020,Mar
2020,Apr
2020,May
2020,Jun
Total Labor Force, 2020, Metro Denver and US
labor force, Denver Metro labor force, US, in 100s
Source: BLS Geography: Various
Data Notes/References
• Slide 5-6: Pedestrian Activity Index – This data comes from the dozens of IKE kiosks on and adjacent to the 16th Street Mall that are enabled with sensors that count the number of wifi-enabled devices within a certain radius of the kiosk. While these do not produce a full pedestrian count, they count a sample of pedestrian activity, which we call the pedestrian activity index.
• Slides 7-10: Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports use aggregated, anonymized cell phone data to chart movement trends over time by geography and across different categories of places. The data is indexed to a baseline of January and February 2020, and the numbers represent changes from this baseline. Thus, some of the increases and decreases are due to seasonal movement patterns (like people spending more time in parks in the summer vs. winter).
• Slide 11: OpenTable’s State of the Industry data measures year-over-year seated diners at a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, OpenTable compares to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year.
• Slide 12-13: Downtown Denver Hotel Data is provided by the Colorado Hotel and Lodging Association’s Rocky Mountain Lodging Report.
• Slide 14: Denver International Airport total passenger traffic (both connecting and originating/departing)
• Slide 15 – 17: Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics and Current Population Survey