Augmented Reality - Foresight and Consumer Acceptance

© 2013 HYVE AG 1

Augmented Reality

Scientific Study on Foresight and Consumer Acceptance

a first overview of the research questions, methodology and preliminary findings

conducted by HYVE Science Labsin cooperation with our technology partner Insius

Munich, 2013

© 2013 HYVE AG 2

Contents

Aims and Objectives

Methodology - Advantages

Methodology – Social Media Network Audit

First Findings – Quantitative Assessment

First Findings – Demographic Data based on Alexa Traffic

First Findings – Topic Analysis

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6

5

4

3

1

7

Project Overview

© 2013 HYVE AG 3

Project Overview

© 2013 HYVE AG 4

Project OverviewA Project of HYVE and INSIUS

Data Collection

Data will be collected through quantitative web monitoring using Insius software InMap; social network analysis, text

mining and linguistics will be combined in order to

analyze community content

Theoretical Touch Points

Literature on Augmented Reality, Foresight Methods,

Web Monitoring

Study Design

Longitudinal study measuring the change of

consumers‘ perception and acceptance

Foresight and Consumer Acceptance – AR

© 2013 HYVE AG 5

Aims and Objectives

© 2013 HYVE AG 6

Aims and ObjectivesInvestigating AR from a Consumer Perspective

Investigating Augmented Reality from a Consumer Perspective

Time• How has AR changed over time from an end

user perspective?• Are there temporal changes regarding the

usage of AR?• How has the consumer acceptance/

sentiments regarding AR changed over time?

• Are there significant jumps? In connection to what (launch of new technology/ application)? Which concepts existed before/ afterwards? Is there a different focus?

Sentiments• How is AR perceived and accepted by

consumers?• Which kinds of sentiments exist towards AR?

Application• What topics are related to AR?• What are the main fields of utilization?• What is the actual use of AR?

Quantity• How many comments/ entries exist about

AR?• How intensive is AR discussed by

consumers?

Outlook• How is AR expected to develop in the future?

© 2013 HYVE AG 7

Methodology

© 2013 HYVE AG 8

Insius Web MonitoringAdvantages

► HYVE with its long-lasting record in netnographic research is teaming up with INSIUS, a technology specialist from Cologne, to provide social media based research on an advanced automated level

► Their joint efforts provide the following benefits

1) Data crawling is based on simulated search-behavior and provides thereby an orientation towards relevant social media posts from the beginning

2) A special identification of „real“ user generated content is applied, not a collection of mere „technical“ UGC (efficient machine learning algorithms as well as domain-specific sentiment-assessment are used to ensure this)

3) The analysis of posts explore relevant topics and subtopics and is thereby „discovering“ unknown dependencies - not only coding already known categories

4) The identified topics are mapped onto an association-network, dependencies and structures across all discussions can be seen here in a clear overview

© 2013 HYVE AG 9

Analyzing Social Media Content at „Big Data Scale“Social Media Network Audit

To identify brand and product related social media content on a „big data“ scale, a process with 4 distinct steps is conducted. Effective computer algorithms as well as experience netnographic researchers are hereby interacting in each step:

► Crawl: data collection by simulating human online search behavior

► Extract: cleaning of data and extraction of user generated content by specialized machine learning algorithms

► Analyze: identification of topics and sentiments

► Map: construction of a topic network – automatized mapping of topics, subtopics – their sentiments and drivers

Crawl1 Clean & Extract2 Analyse3 Map4

© 2013 HYVE AG 10

Social Media Network AuditCrawl – Clean&Extract

► keyword strings that are representing the research topic at hand, are formulated by experienced netnographers

► crawling of possible relevant UGC by queries against all relevant search engines

► content is extracted from all (!) search engine result pages and stored in a data base

Due to the simulation of human online search behavior, the data crawling is already focused on relevant UGC.

Cleaning of automated data is necessary due to the following facts:

► Spam and Code has to be excluded

► only real user generated content should be taken into account (no editorial content, no advertisement and PR)

Our technology is using two technologies for this

► rendering and deconstruction of a website into its pieces

► machine learning algorithms that differentiate Spam, Code, editorial and PR content from UGC

Crawl

Clean&Extract

1

2

© 2013 HYVE AG 11

Social Media Network AuditAnalyse - Map

► using specialized computer linguistic models, the crawled data is analyzed to identify topics, subtopics and their drivers

► a sentiment analysis gives a first impression of the polarity of products, brands and topics (positive, negative, neutral)

► an identification of positive and negative drivers provides a deeper understanding of topics and their relations in terms of the actual content of the discussions

Analyse

Map

► for every analyzed brand or product the relations between discussed topics are evaluated by using network analysis

► in the center of the network the major research topic can be found – grouped around are the negative and positive associations (topics)

HYVE‘s Social Media Network Audit provides hereby a quick understanding of the relations and dependencies between discussions on brands, products and technology. It also serves as an ideal starting point for further netnographic research.

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4

© 2013 HYVE AG 12

First Findings

Quantitative Assessment

© 2013 HYVE AG 13

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

Quantitative assessmentTotal volume timeline

Average growth of47 % p.a. since 2007

amount of English UGC-posts related to the term “augmented reality” (per year)

© 2013 HYVE AG 14

1999

_Q1

1999

_Q3

2000

_Q1

2000

_Q3

2001

_Q1

2001

_Q3

2002

_Q1

2002

_Q3

2003

_Q1

2003

_Q3

2004

_Q1

2004

_Q3

2005

_Q1

2005

_Q3

2006

_Q1

2006

_Q3

2007

_Q1

2007

_Q3

2008

_Q1

2008

_Q3

2009

_Q1

2009

_Q3

2010

_Q1

2010

_Q3

2011

_Q1

2011

_Q3

2012

_Q1

2012

_Q3

2013

_Q1

0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,2002,3002,4002,500

Quantitative assessmentTotal volume timeline

amount of English UGC-posts related to the term “augmented reality” (per quarter)

Google Glass atGoogle I/O

HomeSpotter at NAR

CES 2013; Oculus Rift etc.

© 2013 HYVE AG 15

www.mtbs3d.comstackoverflow.com

seminarprojects.comforums.macrumors.com

forum.unity3d.comwww.ign.com

www.xtremesystems.orgwww.defencetalk.com

www.gamespot.comanswers.yahoo.com

forum.rpg.net3dsforums.com

forum.xda-developers.comforums.penny-arcade.com

www.escapistmagazine.comforums.toucharcade.com

gamrconnect.vgchartz.comwww.neogaf.comwww.meetup.com

developer.vuforia.comwarships1discussionboards.yuku.com

www.futuretimeline.netandroidforums.com

www.serebiiforums.comtalk.maemo.org

www.abovetopsecret.comwww.nintendolife.com

forums.ubi.comwww.avforums.com

forums.cgsociety.orgforums.whirlpool.net.au

forum.lowyat.netwww.quora.com

www.gamedev.netwww.pojo.biz

forum.beyond3d.comforums.gametrailers.com

mybroadband.co.zaforum.magicball.net

www.neoseeker.comforums.steampowered.com

hardforum.comforums.eidosgames.com

forum.mobilism.orgwww.giantitp.com

www.psu.comforums.sjgames.com

forums.comicbookresources.comeclipsephase.com

2,3211,820

1,4141,024

695648

626582580

514507

486455453

439365

348267

257250245240

229225224219

208199196195

182171167165164163163162158156153150150150148147144143139

Quantitative assessmentCommunities

24%

15%

14%

14%

8%

6%

6%

5%

5%3%

Gamer Community

3D-Game-Technology-Community

Computer and Technology Community

Q&A-Site

Smartphone-Community

Smartphone-Developer-Community

Military Community

Home Entertainment Com-munity

Game Developer Community

Sonstige

© 2013 HYVE AG 16

Quantitative assessmentTotal Volume - Summary

► Augmented reality sees a massive leap in user generated content after 2006

► Since then the amount of UGC grows nearly 50% from year to year

Growing interest since 2006

► Google Glasses showed a significant impact on the discussion around AR, but on a very high level

► Other products like the Oculus Rift (VR) were also able to stimulate the discourse on AR

All about Google Glasses?

► The major areas of discussion in the social media landscape are game-development and gaming related

► Smartphone-Communities and App-developer communities (like XDA-Developers) follow with wide margin.

Is it a gamers thing?

© 2013 HYVE AG 17

Demographic data based on Alexa trafficAge and education

age education

18 to 24

25 to 34

35 to 44

44 to 45

55 to 64

65 plus

47

20

-15

-31

-37

-31

no college

some college

college

graduate school

0

16

5

-8

► Age-focus lies beneath 35 years, correlating to the major “gaming” topic that is prevalent in the discussion-

sites

► The relatively low educational level could also be a phenomenon of the gaming focus: the majority

of users is simply too young for a college degree

Age and education correspond to the impression of “gamers”

All values are relative to average internet

usage

based on Alexa-ratings:

• measures based on average, weighted Alexa

statistics of crawled sites

• only Alexa-Toolbar User are considered

(non-representative sample), all values in US-

metric

!

© 2013 HYVE AG 18

Demographic data based on Alexa trafficGender, children and income

gender and children income

► The most used forums and communities are frequented by males without children.

► The low income of community members could again be a mere age-phenomenon.

gender, children and income

All values are relative to average internet

usage

based on Alexa-ratings:

• measures based on average, weighted Alexa

statistics of crawled sites

• only Alexa-Toolbar User are considered

(non-representative sample), all values in US-

metric

!

male

female

60

-39

has children

has no children

-25

34

income 0 to 30k

income 30k to 60k

income 60k to 100k

income 100k plus

28

-2

-7

-20

© 2013 HYVE AG 19

Demographic data based on Alexa trafficPlace of internet usage

place of internet usage

► The place of internet usage is maybe the most significant

evidence that “gamers”, still going to school are dominating

the online discussions: Internet usage is above average –

but not at “work”

No internet-usage at work

All values are relative to average internet

usage

based on Alexa-ratings:

• measures based on average, weighted Alexa

statistics of crawled sites

• only Alexa-Toolbar User are considered

(non-representative sample), all values in US-

metric

!

internet at home

internet at school

internet at work

21

24

-14

© 2013 HYVE AG 20

Topic analysis

Overview

© 2013 HYVE AG 21

Network overviewIntroduction

48.742 posts

3.236 sites

6.264 concepts

Augmented Reality

© 2013 HYVE AG 22

Network overviewIntroduction

Augmented Reality

each node in the network represents a language concept

these appear in sentences and have a specific polarity

negativeneutralpositive

the more central a concept is, the more

frequent it occurred in the crawled discussions

the numbers inside the concepts give a relative

impression of the frequency of a concept in this specific network

© 2013 HYVE AG 23

Network overviewTopics overall

gaming

4.839 occurre

nces

informatio

n&knowledge

597 occurre

nces

advertis

ing&marketin

g

469 occurre

nces

shopping

454 occurre

nces

navigatio

n

213 occurre

nces

educatio

n

80 occurre

nces

© 2013 HYVE AG 24

Network overviewTopics - development

1970-2007 2008-2010 2011-20130

50

100

150

200

250

information&knowledge

advertising&marketing

shopping

navigation

education

450

950

1,450

gaming

© 2013 HYVE AG 25

Network overviewExample: gaming

► the network to the isolated

gaming-related concepts

► all concepts that co-occur in

posts with gaming related topics

are taken into account

► it serves as a first basis for

deeper topic understanding and

can already show significant

phenomena

Isolation of the gaming network

© 2013 HYVE AG 26

Network overviewTime shift

2005 and before after 2005

© 2013 HYVE AG 27

The entire study including the final outcomes will

be available soon!

© 2013 HYVE AG 28

Oliver Gluth

[email protected]

fon +49.89.189 081-458

fax   +49.89.189 081-400

HYVE Innovation Research

GmbH

HYVE Science Labs

Schellingstraße 45

80799 München

www.hyve.de

Thank you for your attention

Your personal contact

HYVE Innovation Research GmbH

HYVE Science Labs

Schellingstraße 45

80799 München

www.hyve.de

Hanna Stockinger

[email protected]

fon +49.89.189 081-479

fax   +49.89.189 081-400

Marc Egger

[email protected]

fon +49.221.4558026-0

fax   +49.221.4558026-9

Insius UG

Technologiepark Köln

Eupener Str. 165

50933 Köln

http://insius.com