Auckland Model Refresh 2018 NZMUGS Conference Auckland, Sept 17-18 2018 J Valero (AFC) file:///T:\004_General\Presentations\AT_Modelling_Dec13\AFC_MSM_Overview_Jun18.pptx Auckland Forecasting Centre An Auckland Council, NZ Transport Agency and Auckland Transport Partnership
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Auckland Model Refresh 2018 - Transportation Group NZ · Auckland Model Refresh 2018 NZMUGS Conference Auckland, Sept 17-18 2018 J Valero (AFC)...
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Auckland Forecasting CentreAn Auckland Council, NZ Transport Agency and Auckland Transport Partnership
An Auckland Council, NZ Transport Agency and Auckland Transport Partnership
Recap: Models Refresh Project –2017 Phase 1
2
Key objectives:• Revise zone system to better represent greenfield areas • Update the models to reflect 2016 conditions• Include PT crowding in the Macro Strategic Model• Enhance the Willingness to Pay (WtP) segmentation in
the model to better assess responses to pricing
Models with improved integration1. MSM Macro Strategic Model (multimodal, previously ART)2. MPT Macro Passenger Transport model (PT modes, previously APT)
ASP3.5 updates: zone system
An Auckland Council, NZ Transport Agency and Auckland Transport Partnership
AKL Model System (+2018)
Land use model
ASP3
Transport demand
model MSM MPT Model
Accessibility Transport costsEnvironmental
Households / personsEmployment
Population Employment
Passenger Transport trips
Network factors
Population &
employment
External
Regional DTA model
Micro pockets (local)
Vehicle tripsRoad speeds Road speeds
Major
project
subareas
DTA network clip
Enhancements to
DTA
Local data
Real Time
simulation
(signals) Operations (local)
User charges (regional)
Networks
Long term
New
In progress
Micro
simulation
MACRO
MESO
An Auckland Council, NZ Transport Agency and Auckland Transport Partnership
Models Refresh Project – 2018 Phase 2
4
Key enhancements:MSM:• New auto-assignment algorithm/procedure• Application of road perception factors in the assignment• Enhancement to Time of Day response• Re calibration/validationMPT:• Replace trip generation/distribution models with PT
growth factors from MSM (better integration with MSM)
• Developed IP and PM peak models
ASP3.5 updates: rents, exogenous developments, planning policies – Unitary Plan and FULSS
An Auckland Council, NZ Transport Agency and Auckland Transport Partnership 5
Model Refresh and Enhancement
Team:
• AFC
• Beca
• Jacobs
• DY Consulting
• TDF Advisory Services
An Auckland Council, NZ Transport Agency and Auckland Transport Partnership6
Willingness to Pay
PT Crowding
Time of Day Choice
Structure of the MSM
Green boxes
are recent
enhancements to MSM
• Trip based (from
simple trip tours)
• 4-step model
• Enhancements
• Activity aggregated into 600 zones
Assignments
An Auckland Council, NZ Transport Agency and Auckland Transport Partnership7
Key enhancements: MSM
New Assignment algorithm - Emme’s Path –based equilibrium traffic assignment
• Multi-class and generalised costs assignment capabilities • Saves path for further analyses• Better convergence (relative gap 10^-4 or better)• Faster than Emme’s Standard Traffic assignment
In MSM:
• 7 classes (by trip purposes), 12 classes by WtP segmentation• Path based used in both GC skims and final assignment
An Auckland Council, NZ Transport Agency and Auckland Transport Partnership8
Key enhancements: MSM - Application of road perception factors: