www.lynchpin.com Tim Bush Festival of Marketing Attribution Modelling: Real business applications that work @lynchpin @timbushdata
www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
Attribution Modelling:Real business applications that work
@lynchpin @timbushdata
www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
We help Organisations
Use Data to Make the
Best Decisions
Independent Analytics Consultancy
Consultancy
Analytics
Data Engineering
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www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
/in/tim-j-bush
Statistical modelling (Attribution models, lead scoring, segmentation, predictive models).
Data Scientist
@timbushdata
Now ThenPhD Physics + research: Mathematical models of bacteria, the environment + of romance.
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www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing 3
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Myth busting - Common misconceptions about
attribution
AGENDA
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Case Studies:
1. Aviation (B2C)
2. Professional services (B2B)
What is attribution and why do models fail?
Top tips for successful attribution projects
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Why do you need an attribution model at all?
Moneyball:
What is the truevalue of a baseball
player on your team?
www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing 4
Why do you need an attribution model at all?
Moneyball:
“There is an epidemic failure within the game to understand what is
really happening”
www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
What is attribution?
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How do the different players on your team combine to generate wins?
+ +
www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
? %
What is attribution?How do your marketing channels combine to generate conversions?
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? % ? % ? %? %
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0 %
What is attribution?How do your marketing channels combine to generate conversions?
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0 % 0 % 0 %100 %
Last
Interaction
Model
www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
What is attribution?What is the actual value of your marketing activities?
0%
100%0% Last Interaction
What is inside
this black box?
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?Attribution model gives you the true revenue and conversions generated by each channel…..
10% 40%10% 10%30%
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www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
?
Attribution model gives you the true revenue and conversions generated by each channel…..
but who really cares?
10% 40%10% 10%30%
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More and more businesses are using attribution models…
Econsultancy/Lynchpin survey of 900 analysts and marketers
however they aren’t sure whether these models are providing accurate or useful insights.
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https://www.lynchpin.com/measurement-analytics-report-2017/
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https://www.lynchpin.com/measurement-analytics-report-2017/
Attribution models are often ‘black box’ models, that are not based on facts about the business.
www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
Define what your model is for.
Optimising marketing spend.
Planning campaigns.
Attributed revenue is only the first step!
Custom Model
Lead scoring
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Attribution models
don’t work for B2B.
Attribution Myths Busted
Can’t Measure
Offline Channels
The technology will
Produce a good
enough model
Can’t get internal support for (budget protectiveness).
The TV Myth The B2B Myth The Stakeholder Myth The Technology Myth
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Case Study 1
Optimise Marketing spend on media and understand which converted to bookings.
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Aviation Client B2C
www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
Objective – Optimise digital marketing spend to generate flight bookings.
Flight search Flight booking
Marketing interactions
?
Marketing spend
Display
Video
Direct mail
Paid Search
Call Centre
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www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
•
•
Why do you want an attribution model?
Exploratory Analysis + Data Audit
Model Build
Test Plan
Test the model
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Lynchpin approach to this project
www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
•
• Spend
• optimization
Why do you want an attribution model?
Exploratory Analysis + Data Audit
Model Build
Test Plan
Test the model
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www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
•
• Spend
• optimization
Why do you want an attribution model?
• Time to conversion was very fast
Exploratory Analysis + Data Audit
Model Build
Test Plan
Test the model
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www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
•
• Spend
• optimization
Why do you want an attribution model?
• Time to conversion was very fast
Exploratory Analysis + Data Audit • A time-decay
based model that optimizes spend
Model Build
Test Plan
Test the model
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www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
•
• Spend
• optimization
Why do you want an attribution model?
• Time to conversion was very fast
Exploratory Analysis + Data Audit • A time-decay
based model that optimizes spend
Model Build
• Planned how to move the spends around
Test Plan
Test the model
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www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
•
• Spend
• optimization
Why do you want an attribution model?
• Time to conversion was very fast
Exploratory Analysis + Data Audit • A time-decay
based model that optimizes spend
Model Build
• Planned how to move the spends around
Test Plan• Checked the
results, and modified the model
Test the model
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www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
•
• Spend
• optimization
Why do you want an attribution model?
• Time to conversion was very fast
Exploratory Analysis + Data Audit • A time-decay
based model that optimizes spend
Model Build
• Planned how to move the spends around
Test Plan• Checked the
results, and modified the model
Test the model
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www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
A Spend Optimisation Model
Combine spend data with revenue generated by each channel as determined by an attribution model.
Model the revenue generated by each channel as a function of spend as having diminishing returns (logistic function).
Use this model to make projections on the impact of future changes in spend.
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www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
Rev
en
ue
ge
ne
rate
d
Spend
Display PPC Brand PPC Generics
Results:
1. Clear overspend in Display. Clear underspend in PPC Brand.
2. Re-allocating spend produced clear improvements in both revenue and other KPIs (Cost per Flight Search).
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Case Study 2
Lead Scoring. Understand which marketing channel is converting and who are the best leads within organisations.
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Professional Services Client B2B
www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
B2C Attribution
Which Media Channel
Converts And which
segments respond
to which media.
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B2B Attribution
Which media converted the company overall?
Who inside the company converted and who influenced them? Internal Discussion
Internal Discussion
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Methodology – Time Lag Fitting
We looked at correlation between marketing activities and conversions over time.
Correlation gives the number of points for lead scoring.
This method can also be used to incorporate offline channels (TV).
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www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
Methodology – Time Lag Fitting
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Time
Sco
re –
Ch
ance
of
con
vert
ing
www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing
Conclusion: 3 Top Attribution TipsDefine what the attribution model is for, as early as possible.
– Spend optimization/lead scoring?
– What KPIs do you want to affect or understand?
Adopt a ‘Data Science Approach:
– Bespoke models are better than black box models.
– Base the attribution model on insights about your business that are easy to understand.
– Test rigorously, and improve the model based on the results.
Try to obtain executive sponsorship for digital analytics and attribution:
– The test and learn approach is key to achieving this.
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