Attitudes toward trade and the global economy March 16, 2007 Lake Research Partners 1726 M Street, NW, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20036 tel. 202/776-9066.

Attitudes toward trade and the global economyMarch 16, 2007

Lake Research Partners1726 M Street, NW, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20036 tel. 202/776-9066 fax 202/776-9074

1000 Broadway, Suite 294 Oakland, CA 94607 tel. 510/286-2097 fax 510/286-2022 [email protected]

Context

Americans are economically anxious and generally pessimistic about the economy in the

future.

Lake Research Partners

3

Only the war concerns more Americans than economic

issues do.

5%

18%

4%

2%

8%

10%

6%

6%

14%

28%

0% 10% 20% 30%

War

Economic issues

Terrorism/ national defense

Immigration

Social/ moral issues

Health care cost/ insurance

Education/ Children's issues

President Bush

Other

Unsure/ Refused

What do you think is the number one problem facing the country today -- that is, what is the problem that you and your family are most concerned about?

LRP/Tarrance Group. January 8-11, 2007. N=1,000 Registered Likely Voters.Lake Research Partners

4

More than half of adults believe the economy is getting worse

1%

22%

57% 20%

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

Don't Know/Refused

Do you think the national economy is getting better, staying the same or getting worse?

American Research Group. “The Economy.” Conducted 2/18-21/07; surveyed 1,100 adults; margin of error +/-3% (release, 2/22).


5

Just 29% of Americans are hopeful about the future of the economy.

4%

29%

44%

23%

Better than today

Same as today

Worse than today

Don't Know/Refused

A year from now, do you expect the national economy to be better than it is today, the same as it is today or worse than it is today?

American Research Group. “The Economy.” Conducted 2/18-21/07; surveyed 1,100 adults; margin of error +/-3% (release, 2/22).


6

Thinking about the next generation of Americans who are children today, the way things are going, do you think economically they will be better off, worse off, or about the same as the generation of adults who are working today?

Parents are afraid that their children will be worse off economically than

they are.

18%

27%

51%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Better off About the same Worse off

LRP Conducted “The American Dream Survey” on behalf of Change to Win among 800 non-supervisory workers August 14-20, 2006. Sampling error is +/- 3.5% for the full sample, higher among split sampled questions.


7

34%

29%

27%

16%

14%

13%

11%

11%

8%

Wages not keeping up with cost of living

Rising gas prices

Rising health care costs

Having to work more to keep up with costof living

Losing your job

A secure retirement

Expenses like child care, education, orcollege tuition

Paying taxes

Paying off debt

Thinking specifically about the economy, what two things are you personally worried about the most? Are they…

Wages not keeping up with cost of living is the top economic concern, followed by rising gas prices and

health care costs.



8

A majority of workers now believe they will retire at an older age than

they expected.

10%

28%

55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Younger Same Age Older

Do you think that you will retire younger, the same age or older than you estimated 5 years ago?



9

Health care costs, losing health care coverage, not having enough money for

retirement, and not being able to keep up with bills are the top immediate concerns

for the working middle class today.

-11%

-8%

-14%

-18%

-20%

-13%

-20%

-19% 34%

36%

36%

37%

38%

41%

42%

51%

45%

59%

68%

59%

65%

69%

77%

72%

77%

62%

-15%

-21%

-25%

-22%

-30%

-33%

-35%

-31%

-39%

-36%

MINOR/NOT AT ALL VERY/SERIOUSNot being able to afford health care when you

and your family need it

Losing your health care benefits

Not having enough money for retirement

Not being able to keep up with bills

Losing my job and not being able to find one with same pay and benefits

Losing your pension benefits

Having your standard of living slip further

Losing your home or never owning a home

Not having enough time to spend with your family

Now I am going to read you a list of different concerns that working people might have in America today. For each one, even if it is not a problem right now, please tell me how much of a concern it is for you – a very serious concern, a serious concern, a minor concern, or not a concern at all.



10* American Dream survey of 800 workers, 8-06

** Gallup, June 1-4, 2006: 1,002 adults

• Three out of ten workers have taken on debt to pay for necessities like food, utility costs, and gasoline.*

• In June, 53% of Americans said they personally know someone who has been laid off in the last six months. **


11

56%81%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Workers overwhelmingly believe that working families are falling

behind.

Now I am going to read you some statements and I want you to tell me if you agree or disagree with each statement.: No matter what you hear about the economy, working families are falling behind.

81% Agree

25%

•Darker colors indicate higher intensity



12

• Daniel Yankelovich wrote in the May/June 2006 issue of Foreign Affairs that outsourcing is reaching a tipping point as an issue for the American public.*

• Eighty-seven percent of voters are concerned about outsourcing (52% worry a lot), and 81% of voters gave the government a C, D, or F in its handling of the issue.

*“The Tipping Points,” by Daniel Yankelovich, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2006


13

•This negativity about the economy is greatest among blue collar voters and independents—both of whom have been shifting away from Democrats.

•Concerns are greater in “red” states than in blue states.

•Speaking to jobs being outsourced and leveling the playing field is a way to reach these voters in “red” states.


Attitudes on trade and trade agreements

Americans are generally positive about globalization in principle. Overall, they are unsure of the impact of

trade policies on them and have strong concerns about the impact on jobs and wages.


15

The general attitude towards globalization is positive.

Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of...globalization?

12% 39%

20% 11%

17%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Favorable

Unfavorable

Neither

Survey by German Marshall Fund of the US. Methodology: Conducted by TNS Opinion and Social Institutes, September 5-September 25, 2006 and based on telephone interviews with a national adult sample of 999. Data provided by The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut.

Darker colors indicate higher intensityLake Research Partners

16

Americans are not sure about the impact of free trade agreements on

prices.

14%

30%

23%

32%

Higher

Lower

No Difference

Don't Know/ Refused

As I read some of the possible ways free trade agreements affect America, tell me what your impression is....Do free trade agreements make the price of products sold in the US (United States) higher, lower or not make a difference?

Survey by Pew Research Center. Methodology: Conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, December 6-December 10, 2006 and based on telephone interviews with a national adult sample of 1,502. [USPSRA.121906.R39A]

Data provided by The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut.


17

Just 11% see free trade agreements raising American wages overall.

14%11%

30%44%

Higher

Lower

No Difference

Don't Know/ Refused

(As I read some of the possible ways free trade agreements affect America, tell me what your impression is.)...Do free trade agreements make the wages of American workers higher, lower, or not make a difference?

Survey by Pew Research Center. Methodology: Conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, December 6-December 10, 2006 and based on telephone interviews with a national adult sample of 1,502. [USPSRA.121906.R39A]

Data provided by The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut.


18

Just one third believe agreements such as NAFTA have helped them and 29% aren’t

sure one way or the other.Thinking about the financial situation of you and your family...Do you think these free trade agreements like NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) and the WTO (World Trade Organization) have definitely helped, probably helped, probably hurt, or definitely hurt the financial situation of you and your family?

12% 24%

3% 32%

11%

18%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Hurt

Helped

Neither

Don'tknow/Refused

Darker colors indicate higher intensity

Survey by Pew Research Center. Methodology: Conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, December 6-December 10, 2006 and based on telephone interviews with a national adult sample of 1,502. [USPSRA.121906.R38] Data provided by The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut.

35%

36%


19

Protecting jobs is a major concerns for voters.

• In November of 2005, a Pew* poll found that the public rated protecting American jobs as nearly as important as defending the country against terrorism (86% terrorism, 84% jobs). By contrast, the poll found few opinion leaders who consider jobs a top tier foreign policy goal.

* Pew Research Center, Sept. 5-Oct. 31, 2005: 2,000 adults, 520 opinion leaders


Moving forwardDemocrats have a strong message on trade, jobs, and outsourcing. Energy independence is a strong issue that links the new economy,

the future, and good jobs for Americans.


21

Democrats have a strong message in addressing these concerns about the negative

impact of “free” trade.

DEMOCRATICWe're running trade deficits and outsourcing jobs abroad while new jobs in America have lower wages and fewer benefits. We need a new strategy that reduces our import of foreign oil, enforces labor rights and environmental protections in trade accords, and provides tax credits for companies that create jobs in the US (United States) and invest in new American industries. 80% more likely to vote for this candidate (47% much more likely).

REPUBLICAN

America benefits from free trade which helps our economy at home and abroad. Our trade policy is generating growth and new markets for US (United States) products, while American consumers benefits from the inexpensive products that are produced abroad.

50% more likely to vote for this candidate (13% much more likely)

Survey by Campaign for America's Future and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research,

June 4-June 7, 2006. 1000 registered voters

Now, let me read you some signature policies from a [Democratic/Republican] candidate for Congress. After hearing it, please tell me whether it makes you much more likely, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, or no more likely or less likely to support that candidate.


22

Democrats were able to use alternative energy plans to increase the perception that they had new and innovative ideas that could bring about the change that voters were looking for.

Newly elected Congressman Jerry McNerney built on the power of this issue with his strong profile of expertise on renewable energy and communicated a national energy plan to voters in his successful upset over Richard Pombo.

This is an area where Democrats can follow through – alternative, renewable, and sustainable energy is an arena where voters support government taking the lead rather than allowing businesses and corporations to make the investment decisions.


23

As with many progressive issues, one of the biggest

barriers is cynicism.

• Yankelovich reported in “The Tipping Point” in 2006 that most Americans (74%) feel it is unlikely that U.S. companies would keep jobs in the country when labor is cheaper elsewhere, and 52% believe it was unrealistic to think that the government could do anything to stop corporations from sending jobs overseas—though a plurality believe the government could do a lot more to prevent jobs from moving overseas if it tried.


Attitudes toward trade and the global economy March 16, 2007 Lake Research Partners 1726 M Street, NW, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20036 tel. 202/776-9066.

Documents

lake research partners

american research group

american dream survey

nonsupervisory workers

national economy

sampling error

global economy

behalf of change