ATTACHMENT B URS SHALE GAS EMISSIONS ANALYSIS
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ATTACHMENT B
URS SHALE GAS EMISSIONS ANALYSIS
URSNovember28, 2011
Sara Banaszak, Vice President and Chief EconomistAmy Farrell, Vice President of Regulatory AffairsAmerica’s Natural Gas Alliance (ANGA)1201 New York Ave. NW Suite 1110Washington, DC
Gas Well Completions
Dear Sara and Amy,
URS has assembled gas well completion data supplied by seven (7) upstream exploration andproduction companies in the United States. Each of these companies voluntarily provided datain the past two weeks. URS consolidated, blinded and summarized the data in order to avoid anyanti-trust concerns. All supplied data was reviewed and used in this analysis.
This data was provided in response to a request by ANGA for actual current data that could becompared to EPA’s assumptions used in the newly proposed “Oil and Natural Gas Air PollutionStandards, Subpart quad 0”. Some of the key EPA assumptions regarding completions were:
• Amount of flowback venting for fractured unconventional gas wells. (EPA assumes7623 Mscf of CH4/event, or 9175 Mscf of total gas/event). Note: This emissionestimate was originally published in the “Background Technical Support Document,Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reporting from the Petroleum and Natural Gas Industry”in support of Subpart W of the EPA’s GHG Mandatory Reporting Rule.
• Duration of flowback (EPA assumes 3-10 days),
• Percent of completions that are controlled (EPA assumes 15%),
• Flaring vs Venting (EPA assumes 51% venting).
Treatment of Data
Data was gathered by distributing an empty template spreadsheet formatted to receivecompletions data, with a separate tab for “green completion” information and a separate tab forordinary completion (i.e. “non-green completions”).
URSFor non-green completions, the following data was gathered on each well completion reported:date of completion, AAPG basin location, type (horizontal or vertical), formation type, whetherit was a recompletion or a new well, flowback duration, choke size, casing pressure, and whetherthe flowback gas was flared. There were ninety-eight (98) well completions in the non-greencompletion dataset from four unique companies. Only two (2) of those were recompletions, therest were new wells.
For green completions, the following data was gathered on each well completion reported: dateof completion, basin, and flowback duration (time). There were 1076 wells in the greencompletion dataset from five companies.
The data has been scrubbed of company name, company division, and well name, so that therewould be no impression of any conflict of interest nor unintended distribution of confidentialbusiness information. The resulting detailed data is attached to this memorandum.
Using EPA’s recommended method for calculating emissions from gas well completions (aslisted in the proposed September 9, 2011 revisions to Subpart W of the Mandatory GHGReporting Rule), calculations were added to the data spreadsheet, using Equation W- 11 B forsonic flow conditions. Sonic flow was a reasonable assumption in since most upstream pressureswere very high (see histogram on casing pressures reported).
FR=1.27*105*A*187.o8*T (Eq. W-11B)
Where:FR = Average flow rate in cubic feet per hour, under sonic flow conditions.A = Cross sectional area of orifice (in_’).T0= Upstream temperature (degrees Kelvin).187.08 = Constant with units of m/(sec2 * K).1.27* 105 = Conversion from m3/second to th/hour.
Some of the conservative assumptions used in the calculations were as follows:
• Equation W-J1B measures 100% Gas — The flowback fluid contains a mixture of water,hydrocarbon liquids, and hydrocarbon gas that comes back from the well, and gas flowduring a flowback may start and stop. The calculations presented here assume that theflow is all gas, that no water or hydrocarbon liquids exist in this outlet stream.
• Maximum Choke Size — Throughout flowback, operators alter choke sizes depending onthe percentage of liquid and vapor, flow rate, and pressure of the stream. For thepurposes of this analysis, the data gathered was only for the maximum choke size usedwhile the flowback is making gas. This may overpredict gas flow.
• Maxinnim Casing Pressure — Casing pressure varies depending on how long the well hasbeen flowing, due to formation pressure changes and production pipe pressure drops. To
URSbe conservative, only the maximum casing pressure found while the flowback is makinggas was used. This may overpredict the gas flowrate.
• Ternyerature — A temperature of 200 °F was assumed for all flowbacks. Equation resultsare not overly sensitive to temperature.
Summary of Results
For non-green completions, data was summarized by basin, and then the basins were averaged toproduce a national average value. As can be seen in the following attached table, the resultingnon-green completion flowback rate, using EPA’s methodology, was 765 Mscf of gas. This isonly a small fraction (8%) of the 9175 Mscf of gas per flowback that EPA had used as a basis forthe subpart quad 0 - Oil and Natural Gas Air Pollution Standards. There was variability amongthe basins, which had averages ranging from 340 Mscf to 1160 Mscf. However, all of theseaverages, and in fact the individual company averages, which ranged from 443 to 1455 Mscf, arefar below EPA’s assumed value.
The percent of wells in the dataset that were green completions was 92% of 2011 wellcompletions. Even among the 8% that were non-green completed, 55% of those were flared(rather than directly vented). This leaves approximately 4% of the well completions in thedataset that were uncontrolled. This is far lower than EPA’s assumed value of 85% of thecompletions that are uncontrolled, with only 15% being green completed. EPA had alsoassumed 50% were flared.
The average duration of non-green completions in the dataset was 3.5 days (a histogram ofduration distribution is shown), and the average duration of a green completion in the dataset was5.8 days (again, a histogram of duration distribution is shown). EPA had assumed flowbackduration of 3-10 days, but the dataset shows the non-green completions to be much shorter. Onlythe green completions cover the 3-10 day span that EPA had assumed.
Conclusions
While the dataset is limited to seven companies and just under 1200 wells, there is a reasonablerepresentation across many of the unconventional gas development regions that are beingdeveloped in the United States. The attachment shows 2 maps of the locations of the wells inthis dataset by AAPG basin. A comparative map from the Energy Information Administration ofUS Shale gas plays demonstrates a good overlap with many of those developing areas.
URSIt appears that the EPA’s 9175 Mscf/completion event for unconventional fractured wells ispotentially overestimated by 1200%. The ANGA data may not be robust enough to provide adefinitive new national flowback emission factor because of its reliance on conservativeassumptions and limited regional data. However it is far more current, and certainly collected ona far more consistent and transparent basis than any of the data EPA used to generate its 9175Mscf. According to the Technical Support Document (TSD) for Subpart W of the EPA’s GHGMandatory Reporting Rule the 9175 Mscf was based upon some presentations by companies atthe EPA’s voluntary Natural Gas Star program, mostly from a technology transfer session in2004 (reference http ://www.epa. gov/climatechange/emissions/downloads I 0/Subpart-W TSD.pdf),. While the Natural Gas Star companies presented data on their completions thatwere now recovered, this data was never meant to represent emissions from average wellcompletions, was never documented with the quality needed for national inventory numbers, andin fact may represent only the subset of wells where the company had implemented their newpractice.
ANGA may now wish to recommend that EPA retract the 9175 Mscf being used in the proposedstandard. To provide a new well completions emission estimate, ANGA could recommend thatEPA use the still conservatively high estimate of 765 Mscf/completion, based on the new ANGAdata. Although ANGA may not wish to recommend the value be used directly as a newnational emission factor, it provides a much more representative emissions estimate for use inestablishing EPA standards.
Since EPA’s proposed New Source Performance Standard for well completions andrecompletions is based on a cost effectiveness analysis that was calculated using the Agency’s9175 Mscf estimate, this ANGA data calls into question the economics of requiring greencompletions and use of reduced-emissions-completion equipment in the newly proposed rules.Therefore ANGA may now also wish to request that EPA reconsider the proposed requirementfor green completions equipment.
In addition, ANGA should consider recommending that EPA revise its Subpart W TSD to reflectthe new findings. Continued dissemination and reliance upon this older and less consistentinformation by the agency raises serious quality concerns wherever the data may be used. Thecurrent EPA overestimate is frequently cited in studies and reports, leading to inaccurateconclusions about industry emissions and increasing the potential for federal or stategovernmental agencies to rely upon the inaccurate data in their decision making.
URSThank you for the opportunity to provide this technical support.
Kind Regards,
Matthew R. Harrison, P.E.Sr. Certified Project ManagerGHG and CC National Practice Leader
URS Corporation9400 Ambergien Blvd.Austin, Texas 78729
URS
ATTACHMENTS
Table 1: Summary of Compiled Data
% of Wells GC 92%% of Non-GC Flared 55%
‘Lit
Average Non-GC Flowback - AAPG Basin #160A 19 Samples 1,126 mcf
Non-GC Flowback - AAPG Basin #345 28 Samples 1,031 mcf
Non-GC Flowback - AAPG Basin #360 29 Samples 386 mcf
Non-GC Flowback - AAPG Basin #430 5 Samples 943 mcf
Non-GC Flowback - AAPG Basin #535 17 Sai 340 mcfMAverage Flowback of Basins 765.1 mcf
Average total flowback of all non-GC events 765.4 mcf
Estimated emissions from well completions with hydraulic fracturing(Table 4-2, EPA TSD) 9,175 mcf
***using Equation WllB***
Figure 2: Distribution of Single-Event Flowback Volumes (Non-Green Completions only)
Non-GC Flowback Volume80
= 40a)
20
0 -4—- ---
0-500 501-1000 1001-1500 1501-2000 2001-2500 2501-3000 More
mscf/event
Figure 3: Distribution of Casing Pressures (Non-Green Completions on!y
Non-GC Casing Pressures60 -
>.
C 40a)
20 -
LI
0 ------• --------- - —---------
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 More
Ipsig
URSFigure 4: AAPG Basins Represented in Survey Sample (Non-GC Only)
-
CONflGUOUS UNIJED STATES AAPG.CSD -
GEOLOGIC PEOVINCES CODE MAP -- - — -- - —
RI Rbw I Q . —. *- a - — fl’ — -
1
Figure 5: Location of Major Shale Plays in Continental US
-
Lower 48 states shale plays
Source:
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