AT&T to Acquire Time Warner - Comment

Implications of AT&T’s acquisition of Time Warner

Last weekend, AT&T announced it intends to buy Time Warner for US$85.4bn (W97tr;

US$107.5/share), a 36% premium to Time Warner’s current share price. We believe the

deal will be a game changer in the telecom service and media industry.

1) We believe the information and communications technology (ICT) ecosystem is

entering a growth phase driven by content investment. In particular, vertical integration

of infrastructure, platforms, and content is picking up speed.

2) Not just any content, but premium video content holds the key to success in the

evolving ICT ecosystem.

3) Telcos are taking diverse approaches to media investment. Currently, telcos are focused

on the IPTV (platform) business, while content investments have generally been confined

to individual projects and small firms. However, AT&T’s acquisition of media giant Time

Warner would signify a much deeper penetration into the content business by a telecom

operator.

Premium content to be a premium factor for stocks

1) Content industry: Companies providing premium content that can generate steady

mobile video traffic are likely to receive a premium.

2) Telecom service industry: The mobile video business is anticipated to lift off. For

telecom carriers, monetization of video traffic can be accomplished not just through

data usage but also through advertising and subscription fees. In the past, telcos tended

to languish after growing on network expansion.

3) AT&T: Purchasing Time Warner will enable AT&T to diversify revenue sources, save

costs, and expand into the content business, which is less vulnerable to regulations.

However, the company has to overcome disputes over the high acquisition price and

financing burden.

4) Time Warner: The acquisition by AT&T will allow Time Warner to provide users with

easier access to mobile content, diversify markets, and improve negotiating power. On

the negative side, Time Warner could lose revenue-generating opportunities from other

platforms due to overlapping interests.

Figure 1. AT&T’s acquisition of Time Warner from perspective of industry and each company

Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Telecom Service/Media (Overweight/Maintain)

AT&T to acquire Time Warner

� US-based telco AT&T’s acquisition of Time Warner will be an industry game changer

� Note growing investment in premium content (a growth driver for ICT ecosystem)

� Focus on CJ E&M’s efforts to improve original content and telcos’ media expansion

Issue Comment

October 27, 2016

Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd.

[Telecom Service / Media]

Jee-hyun Moon

+822-768-3615

[email protected]

Nu-ri Ha

+822-768-4130

[email protected]

Telecom Service/Media

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October 27, 2016

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

ICT/media ecosystem entering content investment phase

The global media ecosystem is now entering a content investment-driven growth phase,

after building the necessary infrastructure and achieving scale through platforms. The

same can be said for the ICT ecosystem. Amid waning consumer enthusiasm for more

advanced hardware, software and content have now become the key differentiators.

AT&T, having completing its communication network infrastructure, has beefed up its

platform business by expanding its IPTV service (U-Verse) and acquiring satellite-TV

operator DirecTV last year. With its bid for Time Warner, the carrier is now setting its

sights on the content business. Netflix, a major new media player, is also focusing on

content. As an over-the-top (OTT) service, the company was able to bypass infrastructure

spending, and has been focused on expanding its platform globally. It is now aiming to

create the world’s most extensive original and UHD content lineup. China’s Wanda

Group and Korea’s CJ Group have been following similar paths (infrastructure

investment � platform � content), with both currently focusing on content.

Figure 2. Investment pattern in media ecosystem: Infrastructure → platform → content

Source: Respective companies’ data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Not just any content is king; Focus on premium video content

The familiar adage that content is king may need a bit more nuanced reworking. In the

mobile age, we believe those with premium video content—content that can create a

spark in traffic and build customer loyalty—will win the battle for traffic. Video is the

primary driver behind global mobile data traffic.

Figure 3. Global mobile video traffic trend and forecast

Source: Ericsson, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

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Mobile video traffic (L)

Proportion of video in total mobile data traffic (R)


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October 27, 2016


Telcos taking diverse approaches to media investments

Telcos’ investments in media businesses are taking diverse forms. Many telcos have

focused on the pay-TV market, including IPTV, as a platform in the media value chain. As

for content, most telcos’ investments have been confined to individual projects and

small firms.

For example, Verizon, AT&T’s major competitor in the US telecom service market, has

been focusing on internet platform and digital ad solutions, as evidenced by its

acquisitions of AOL and Yahoo. For content, Verizon has tried to appeal to the millennial

generation (born from 1981-1996) by investing in small firms, including multi-channel

networks (third-party service providers that manage internet content creators’

copyrights) such as Awesomeness TV, Vice, and Millennial Media.

Meanwhile, AT&T’s planned acquisition of Time Warner would signal a penetration into

the traditional content market. We believe the company wants stable access to a

massive reservoir of content, rather than just individual content supply contracts.

Of note, we believe AT&T’s purpose in acquiring Time Warner was revealed in its

statement that “the future of video is mobile and the future of mobile is video.” Among

Korean telcos, KT appears similar to AT&T, given that AT&T is dominant in the fixed-line

telecom market and owns a satellite broadcasting network. In the wireless telecom

market, the company ranks second after Verizon. We think AT&T is betting on video

content via Time Warner to achieve growth in the mobile era.

Figure 4. AT&T’s approach to and status of media business investment: Infrastructure →

platform → acquisition of large content company

Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Figure 5. Verizon’s approach to and status of media business investment: Infrastructure →

platform → digital ad solutions + content investments in relatively small firms

Source: Verizon, media reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research


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October 27, 2016


Merger to be a win-win

The acquisition deal’s roots can be traced in the recent business trends of AT&T and

Time Warner.

At AT&T, the media business has been driving up earnings. Since the acquisition of

DirecTV in 2H15, the company has been enjoying growth in both revenue and operating

profit. We attribute the growth to the bolstering of platform businesses (satellite TV in

addition to IPTV) based on the fixed-line unit’s expansive broadband internet coverage

(infrastructure). Recently, the company established infrastructure for the mobile unit’s

4G LTE services. In an effort to enhance the added value of the mobile businesses, AT&T

will likely shift its attention to digital video content.

Time Warner’s 2015 revenue was broken down into broadcast (56%) and film (44%). The film

unit posted sizable revenue despite the highly volatile nature of the business. In 1H16, however,

film revenue contracted and the broadcast unit recorded only single-digit growth in revenue.

The merger with AT&T should boost the company’s digital revenue via mobile distribution of its

content and also push up overseas revenue thanks to DirecTV’s coverage of Latin America.

Table 1. AT&T’s major businesses’ status and income statement: Simultaneous rise in revenue and OP after acquiring satellite

broadcast service provider DirecTV in 2H15 (US$mn)

2014 2015 YoY 1H15 1H16 YoY

Total revenue 132,447 146,801 11% 65,591 81,055 24%

1) Telecom service/B2B solutions 70,606 71,127 1% 35,221 35,188 0%

Wireless 37,223 38,640 4% 18,957 19,364 2%

Fixed-line 33,383 32,487 -3% 16,264 15,824 -3%

2) Entertainment/internet 22,233 35,294 59% 11,442 25,369 122%

3) B2C telecom service 36,744 35,066 -5% 17,533 16,514 -6%

4) International telecom service/video - 4,102 - 727 3,495 381%

5) Other 2,839 1,212 -57% 668 489 -27%

OP 11,827 24,785 110% 11,330 13,691 21%

Note: Satellite broadcaster DirecTV has been incorporated into consolidated basis since 2H15 after it was acquired. Source: AT&T, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Table 2. Time Warner’s major businesses’ status and income statement: Film unit makes a sizable revenue contribution, but has

been contracting recently; Broadcasting revenue displays low growth, with a low proportion of overseas revenue (US$mn)

2014 2015 YoY 1H15 1H16 YoY

Total revenue 28,320 29,203 3% 14,475 14,260 -1%

1) Film: Warner Bros. 12,526 12,992 4% 6,497 5,767 -11%

1-1) Theater content 5,839 5,143 -12% 2,728 2,321 -15%

Theater revenue 1,969 1,578 -20% 1,043 809 -22%

DVD, VOD 1,913 1,717 -10% 830 542 -35%

TV license fee 1,686 1,579 -6% 747 838 12%

Merchandise and other 271 269 -1% 108 132 22%

1-2) TV content 5,099 5,635 11% 2,656 2,628 -1%

1-3) Game and other 1,588 2,214 39% 1,113 818 -27%

2) Broadcasting: Networks 15,794 16,211 3% 8,373 8,889 6%

Subscription fee 9,841 10,054 2% 5,050 5,464 8%

Advertising 4,568 4,637 2% 2,451 2,580 5%

Content 1,183 1,315 11% 761 731 -4%

2-1) Turner Network 10,396 10,596 2% 5,537 5,916 7%


Advertising 4,568 4,637 2% 2,451 2,580 5%

Content 370 455 23% 289 251 -13%

2-2) HBO Network 5,398 5,615 4% 2,836 2,973 5%


Content 813 860 6% 472 480 2%

* Domestic revenue from broadcast subscription fee/advertising

12,336 12,789 4% 6,568 7,130 9%

* Overseas revenue from broadcast

subscription fee/advertising 2,073 1,902 -8% 933 914 -2%

Total OP 5,833 6,923 19% 3,676 3,772 3%

1) Film: Warner Bros. 1,248 1,435 15% 674 643 -5%

2) Broadcasting: Networks 4,896 5,988 22% 3,224 3,339 4%

Removal of internal transaction and loss -311 -500 61% -222 -210 -5%

Note: Excluding “other” revenue within broadcasting unit, due to its small scale; Source: Time Warner, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research


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October 27, 2016


Future outlook and main points

Through the deal, AT&T is expected to further diversify its portfolio, reduce expenses,

and expand into the content business, which is less vulnerable to regulations. The

company is highly dependent on the slowing telecom business. Indeed, telecom services

accounted for 68% of revenue in 1H16, with IPTV/satellite TV contributing 31%. The

acquisition of Time Warner is anticipated to lessen the percentage of the telecom

business in revenue by 10%p to 58%, with the contribution of media rising to 42%

(IPTV/satellite TV 27%; content 15%). Risks include the high acquisition cost, financing

burden, and uncertainties over the deal’s regulatory approval.

As for Time Warner, the merger should improve users’ access to mobile content,

diversify the company’s overseas markets, and enhance its bargaining power. Based on

AT&T’s mobile service subscribers, the company should be able to boost digital revenue.

Its overseas revenue is also likely to increase thanks to DirecTV’s coverage of the Latin

American market. After acquiring DirecTV, AT&T introduced products bundled with

satellite TV services to its existing subscribers. Time Warner should also be able to

bundle its TV channels and mobile apps, including HBO NOW, with AT&T services.

However, the deal might depress opportunities to increase revenue by expanding into

other platforms, as being a subsidiary of AT&T might cause conflicts of interest.

Figure 6. Expected change in AT&T’s revenue breakdown: Lower dependency on telecom

service revenue, with contribution of media revenue rising to 42%

Notes: Based on sum of each company’s revenue in 1H16; Expecting IPTV (entertainment and high-speed internet) to include

revenue from DirecTV and U-Verse; Media revenue includes IPTV/satellite and content

Source: Respective companies’ data; Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Figure 7. Traffic trends of major Korean for-pay mobile video apps: Apps provided by telcos

ranked highly overall → App businesses to take off if AT&T acquires Time Warner

Note: Based on total amount of monthly usage time

Source: KoreanClick, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

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oksusu (SK Telecom) pooq (pooq, terrestrial)

LG U+ LTE video portal KT Olleh tv mobile

Tving (CJ E&M)


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October 27, 2016


CJ E&M’s original content business and telcos’ media business

expansion deserve attention

The AT&T-Time Warner deal is anticipated to help boost the valuation premiums of

companies that produce/distribute premium content capable of generating steady

mobile video traffic. In Korea, CJ E&M is strengthening its presence in the premium

content segment, splitting off its drama unit, Studio Dragon, to focus on drama

production. Studio Dragon is planning an IPO to expand its business.

We should also note telcos’ growing focus on the media business. Previously, a telco’s role

in the mobile video business was limited to providing a telecom network. However, telcos

are now taking better advantage of mobile video traffic, with the monetization model

expanding from telecom networks to advertising and subscription fees. Indeed, all three

major Korean telcos—SK Telecom (017670), KT (030200), and LG Uplus (032640)—have

strengthened their mobile video services since the introduction of LTE. Looking ahead, we

expect to see more investments in their media businesses, including M&As.

Figure 8. CJ E&M split off its drama unit, Studio Dragon, to focus on original drama production;

Studio Dragon is planning an IPO

Source: Company data, media reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Table 3. Korean telcos’ media business status

SK Telecom KT LG Uplus

Service

∙ SK B tv, oksusu (mobile)

∙ 3.77mn IPTV subscribers

(pay-TV market share: About 13%)

∙ KT Olleh tv, Olleh tv mobile


+ 4.34mn Skylife subscribers (pay-TV market share: About 30%)

∙ U+ tv G, LTE video portal


(pay-TV market share: About 8%)

Content

∙ B tv kidzone: Animation

∙ All genres, including movies/dramas,

sports/leisure, documentaries, foreign content (real-time broadcasting on around 80 channels)

∙ Channel-specific content (CJ E&M, JTBC, etc.)

∙ Broadcasting 60 Disney programs

∙ Secured 4,000 DreamWorks titles (including VOD)

∙ Broadest full HD channel lineup 160,000 VODs

∙ Children’s and educational content

∙ Most free movie content

∙ Exclusive contract with Sony Pictures; Simultaneous broadcasting of US dramas

∙ Uflix provides around 22,000 recent movies and popular HBO dramas

∙ 20,000 animations, 12,000 kids’ programs, etc. Exclusive distributor of Disney and Star Wars

∙ Exclusive distributor of seven major US studios’ content including NBC Universal

content in Korea (simultaneous broadcast)

∙ Providing popular Japanese (in partnership with Fuji Television) and Chinese dramas

Multi-channel

network (MCN)

∙ Launching mobile MCN platform Hotzil ∙ Providing in-house content produced in partnership with DIA TV

∙ Launched Power YouTuber service

Virtual reality (VR)

∙ Providing 360-degree VR services Planning in-house production of VR movies

∙ Providing AR and VR integrated content for production and T Real platform

∙ Providing 360-degree VR real-time content for KT Wiz baseball team

∙ Planning to provide 200 pieces of VR mobile content this year

∙ Operating VR game promotion center

∙ Working to provide VR VODs

∙ Planning to produce VR content for adults

Strategy ∙ Expanding subscribers of B tv and oksusu

∙ Increasing original content production

∙ Offering premium services (GIGA UHD) targeting high-end customers

∙ Increasing ARPU by launching video data plans

Note: Number of subscribers is based on end-2Q16. Source: Respective companies’ data, media reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research


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October 27, 2016


APPENDIX 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers

2-Year Rating and Target Price History

Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price

CJ E&M(130960) 08/11/2015 Buy 110,000 05/02/2016 Buy 37,000

07/26/2015 Buy 100,000 01/31/2016 Buy 35,000

05/11/2015 Buy 80,000 11/01/2015 Trading Buy 35,000

03/29/2015 Buy 70,000 08/02/2015 Buy 39,000

02/06/2015 Buy 51,000 01/20/2015 Buy 40,000

11/26/2014 Buy 48,000 10/01/2014 Buy 42,000

No Coverage LG Uplus(032640) 04/05/2016 Buy 14,000

SK Telecom(017670) 04/29/2016 Buy 280,000 02/01/2016 Buy 13,000

02/02/2016 Buy 300,000 07/31/2015 Buy 15,000

07/31/2015 Buy 350,000 04/28/2015 Buy 14,000

05/06/2015 Buy 360,000 01/25/2015 Buy 16,000

10/01/2014 Buy 380,000 10/01/2014 Buy 15,000

KT(030200) 06/03/2016 Buy 40,000

Equity Ratings Distribution

Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell

69.27% 17.07% 13.66% 0.00%

* Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of September 30, 2016)

Disclosures

As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates own 1% or more of KT`s shares outstanding.

Analyst Certification

The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to

Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations

thereof. Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts

primarily responsible for this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their

households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or

advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any

other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of

the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report

but, like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes

revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the

time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or

Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.

Disclaimers

Stock Ratings Industry Ratings

Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving

Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes

Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening

Sell : Relative performance of -10%

Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆))

* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.

* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term

material development.

* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of

future earnings.

* The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic

conditions.

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AT&T to Acquire Time Warner - Comment

Data & Analytics