Atmospheric pollution models •Air Pollution Modelling •Description •Results •Population Exposure Modelling 1. Workshop d. 6/2-7/2-2008 A. Gross, A. Baklanov, U. S. Korsholm, J. H. Sørensen, A. Mahura & A. Rasmussen Contents:
Feb 03, 2016
Atmospheric pollution models
•Air Pollution Modelling•Description•Results
•Population Exposure Modelling
1. Workshop d. 6/2-7/2-2008
A. Gross, A. Baklanov, U. S. Korsholm, J. H. Sørensen, A. Mahura & A. Rasmussen
Contents:
Air pollution, transport and deposition
Emissionmodelling
Population
Meteorology / climateRef.-year: 2000
Health effects.
Externality cost functions
Energy system optimisation model(s)
Environmental impact and damage
Global externality cost for CO2
Scenarios for energy production
2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050
Energy systems
Economic growth
Tech-nologies
EMEP, EDGAR, IPCC, etc.
CEEH modelling framework: Model Components
Thresholds of Air Pollutants
. Threshold Av. per. Effects on humans
O3
Population information Population warning
180 μg/m3 1 h./max.
240 μg/m3 1 h./max. 3 h.
Reduced lung function, chest pain, breathing problems, headache, eye irritations.
SO2
Population information
350 μg/m3 1 h./24 times
125 μg/m3 24 h.
350 μg/m3 1 h./max.
Reduced lung function, breathing problems, increased mortality.
NO2
Population information 350 μg/m3 1 h./max.
Reduced lung function and difficulty in breathing. Increased possibility of infections.
CO 10 mg/m3 8 hours Taken up in the blood, i.e. reduces the bloods transport of oxygen.
Particular Matter: PM10 50 μg/m3 24 hs/35 times
40 μg/m3 yearly
Respiratory tract and cardiovascular diseases.
Benzene 5 μg/m3 yearly Carcinogenic.
Pb 0.5 μg/m3 yearly/max. Damage the nerves.
Red from the Danish Smog and ozoneberedskabet Green from EU
Atmospheric Chemical Aerosol Transport
Emissions
NOx
Biogenic Compounds
Hydrocarbons
ChemistryNO2 + h (+ O2) O3 O3 + NO NO2 + O2
HO + NO2 HNO3
Meteorology
Cloud Processes
Deposition
Environment
Ozone
Aerosols
Air Quality Modeling Framework
Air Quality Monitoring Data•Chemical Initial Conditions•Lateral and Top Boundary Conditions
MeteorologicalObservations
Air Quality ForecastTime Resolved 3-Dimensional Fields of Air Pollutants and 2-Dimensional Deposition Patterns
Air Quality Model or
Subroutine
Meteorological Forecast ModelMeteorological ParametersFields of Winds, Temperatures, Humidity and others
Transport•3-D advection•vertical diffusion
Cloud Effects•Aqueous chemistry•wet scavenging•vertical redistribution
Modules in Air Quality Model
Dry Deposition•Loss to surfaces by non-precipitation processes
Gas-Phase Chemistry
•Integration of chemical rate equations for VOC, NOx, SO2 and ozone
Emissions•Determines emissions of VOC, NOx, SO2 and CO
LOG(NOx, ppb)
ppb
-2-1
01
23
-1
0
1
2
3
4
LOG(VOC, ppbC)
100
200
O3
-2
-10
12
3
LOG(NOx, ppb)
-1
01
23
4
LOG(VOC, ppbC)
2.5
5.0ppb
H2O2
HO
-1
0
1
2
3
4
LOG(VOC, ppbC)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
LOG(NOx, ppb)
0.20.4
0.60.8
ppt ppb
HNO3
10
20
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
LOG(NOx, ppb)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
LOG(VOC, ppbC)
NOx and VOC Dependence
Three Air Pollution Model Types
Approaches:Normal distribution,Bin approach
Physics:• Condensation• Evaporation• Emission• Nucleation• Deposition• Coagulation
Aerosol Module
1. Gas Phase2. Aqueous phase3. Chemical equil.4. Climate Modeling
Chemical Solvers
ECMWF
DMI-HIRLAM
Eulerian trans-port 0.2-0.05lat-lon, 25-40 vert. layer, 3-D regional scale
StochasticLagrangian transport,3-D regional scale
On-Line Chemical Aerosol Trans.EnviroHIRLAM
Off-Line Chemical Aerosol Trans.
CAC
Emergency Pre-parednes & Risk Assess-
ment. DERMA
Nuclear, veterinary and chemical.
Regional (European) to city scale air pollution: smog and ozone.
Regional (European) to city scale air pollution: smog and ozone.
Tropo. Trans. Models
Met. Models
Off-Line modelling with CAC
T:0.15º×0.15º
S: 0.05º×0.05º
CAC Model Area
Currently nested versions of HIRLAM 60 vertical layers:• T – 15x15 km2.• S – 5x5 km2. • Q – 5x5 km2.• U – 1.5x1.5 km2 of DK.
A forecast integration starts out by assimilation of meteorological observations whereby a 3-d state of the atmosphere is produced, which as well as possible is in accordance with the observations.
• CAC 20x20 km2
24 hour forecast
48 hour forecast
0 15 30 60 90 120 150
ppbV
CAC forecast, December 20, 2007O3, NO, NO2, CO, SO2, Rn, Pb, PM2.5, PM10.
Ozone NO2 X 1000
CAC Air Quality Modelling
Ozone Modelling from August 8 to 12, 2003
Jægersborg
Ulborg
Keldsnor
Lille Valby
X: CAC forecastsX: observations
CloudCondensation
Nuclei
Precipitation
Chemistry/Aerosols
On-line air-quality modelling
Cloud-radiationInteraction
&Radiation budgets
Temperature profiles
Chemistry/Aerosols
I.e. models which includes feedbacks of chemistry and aerosol on NWP
At present only two meso-scale models with feedbacks exists (indirects effects of aerosols)
•WRFChem (developed by NCAR)•EnviroHIRLAM (developed by DMI)
Accumulated (reference) dry deposition [μg/m2] +48 h Difference (ref – perturbation) inAccumulated dry deposition [ng/m2]
More details – Ulrik Korsholms
presentation tomorrow
Accidental fire in waste deposit Aalborg Portland 23 October 2005
DERMA calculations
Population Exposure: Scheme of the suggested improvements of meteorological forecasts (NWP) in urban areas, interfaces to and integration with UAP and PE models
Urban Air Pollution models
Population Exposure models
Populations/
Groups Indoor concentrations
Outdoor concentrations
Time activity
Micro-
environments E x p o s u r e
Urban heat flux parametrisation
Soil and sublayer models for urban areas
Urban roughness classification &
parameterisation
Usage of satellite information on
surface
Meso- / City - scale NWP models
Mixing height and eddy diffusivity estimation
Down-scaled models or ABL
parameterisations
Estimation of additional advanced
meteorological parameters for UAP
Grid adaptation and interpolation,
assimilation of NWP data
WP5: Interface to Urban Air Pollution models
WP4: Meteorological models for urban areas
WP7:
FUMAPEX target cities for improved UAQIFS implementation
#1 – Oslo, Norway
#2 – Turin, Italy
#3 – Helsinki, Finland
#4 – Valencia/Castellon, Spain
#5 – Bologna, Italy
#6 – Copenhagen, Denmark
Different ways of the UAQIFS implementation:
(i) urban air quality forecasting mode,
(ii) urban management and planning mode,
(iii) public health assessment and exposure prediction mode,
(iv) urban emergency preparedness system.
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Time of day
Fra
ctio
n o
f ho
ur
Traffic
Home
Work
Other
Time activity of the population
Home location Workplaces
FUMAPEX: KTL
At home
Exposure PM2.5 (μg/m3×persons)
At other locations
Population Exposure: inversion day
FUMAPEX: KTL & FMI
04/22/23 Erik Bødtker, Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
GIS: Doses Individual and Collective
Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (Lithuania), Cs-137
.
1. Workshop d. 6/2-7/2-2008
Thank you for your attention!