Atmospheric Mercury Deposition to the Great Lakes A Multi-Year Study Supported by the Great Lakes Restoration Initia Principal Investigator: Dr. Mark Cohen, NOAA Air Resources Laboratory FY10 GLRI funding: Baseline analysis for 2005 Used “EDAS” meteorological data One set of model parameters and emissions data Summary: http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/GLRI_Atmos_Mercury_Summary.pdf Final Report: http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/GLRI_FY2010_Atmospheric_Mercury_Final_Report_2011_Dec_16.pdf Recent Presentations: http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/Cohen_ARL_Seminar_Feb_7_2013.pptx http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/ICMGP_2013_Edinburgh_Cohen_Presentation.pptx FY11 GLRI funding: Sensitivity analysis Used “NARR” meteorological data Numerous variations of model parameters and emissions data Overall results – even for largest variations found – not changed dramatically Conclusion: results are robust Final Report: http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/GLRI_FY2011_Atmospheric_Mercury_Final_Report_2013_June_30.pdf FY12 GLRI funding: Analysis of alternative future emissions scenar Work is beginning on this policy-relevant analysis FY13 GLRI funding (and beyond): Updates to more recent years
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Atmospheric Mercury Deposition to the Great LakesA Multi-Year Study Supported by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative
Principal Investigator: Dr. Mark Cohen, NOAA Air Resources Laboratory
FY10 GLRI funding: Baseline analysis for 2005 Used “EDAS” meteorological data
Geographical Distribution of 2005 Atmospheric Mercury Deposition Contributions to Lake Erie
Policy-Relevant Scenario Analysis
Here’s where the mercury came from that was deposited to Lake Erie
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-500
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
< 50
0 km
500
-1,0
00 k
m
1,00
0 -3
,000
km
3,00
0 -1
0,00
0 km
10,0
00 -
20,0
00 km
Mer
cury
Em
issi
ons
(Mg/
yr)
Distance of Emissions Source from the Center of Lake Erie
Emissions from Natural Sources
Emissions from Re-Emissions
Emissions from Anthropogenic Sources
A tiny fraction of 2005 global mercury emissions within 500 km of Lake Erie
-
50
100
150
200
250
< 50
0 km
500
-1,0
00 k
m
1,00
0 -3,
000
km
3,00
0 -10
,000
km
10,0
00 -
20,0
00 k
m
Dep
ositi
on C
ontr
ibuti
on (
kg/y
r)
Distance of Emissions Source from the Center of Lake Erie
Contributions from Natural Sources
Contributions from Re-Emissions
Contributions from Anthropogenic Sources
Modeling results show that these “regional” emissions are responsible for a large fraction of the modeled 2005 atmospheric deposition
Important policy implications!
Results can be shown in many ways…
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Top 50 Atmospheric Deposition Contributors to Lake Erie
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waste incineration
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Based on estimated 2005 mercury emissions, e.g., from the 2005 USEPA National Emissions Inventory, and atmospheric fate and transport simulations with the NOAA HYSPLIT-Hg model