ATLANTIC TREATY ASSOCIATION Atlantic Voices, Volume 6, Issue 02 1 - Flora Pidoux It is difficult today to refute that climate change is in progress. When the effects used to be restricted to the already resource scarce and isolated regions of the world, the entire planet is now being affected by global warming one way or another as more extreme whether conditions have erupted, threatening infrastructures, human lives and state security. Climate degradation poses a threat for the reason that it is hard to control and cannot be reversed. It can, however, be slowed down by reducing our greenhouse gas emissions. The Paris Agreement reached at the end of COP21 which took place in Paris at the end of 2015, aimed at just that: set limits so that we do not further jeopardize our planet. Although not perceived as a direct security threat, global warming triggers phenomena which do. Migrations and conflicts are now more prone to arise due to resource scarcity. This issue explores how NATO has been indirectly affected by climate change, notably through natural disasters within its borders and migration, and what measures the Alliance has put in place as a reaction. The geopolitical implications of the melting of the ice cap will also be addressed. Climate Security Volume 6 - Issue 02 February 2016 Contents: Climate Change and NATO: Integration and Adaptation Ms. Candice Geinoz analyzes how climate change is perceived by NATO, how the phenomenon has indirectly impacted the security of the Alliance, and which measures have been put in place by the organization to protect itself from the effects of climate degradation. What Happens to the Arctic Does Not Stay in the Arctic… And Vice Versa Mr. Andrea Bogi focuses on how the economic prospects liberated by the melting of the ice cap and cooperation in the High North have been affected by the deterioration of NATO-Russia relations. Map showing the increase of temperatures in 2014 compared to 1884. (Image: NASA Scientific Visualization Studio)
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
ATLANTIC TREATY ASSOCIATION
Atlantic Voices, Volume 6, Issue 02 1
- Flora Pidoux
It is difficult today to refute that climate change is in progress. When the effects used to be restricted to the already resource scarce and isolated regions of the world, the entire planet is now being affected by global warming one way or another as more extreme whether conditions have erupted, threatening infrastructures, human lives and state security.
Climate degradation poses a threat for the reason that it is hard to control and cannot be reversed. It can, however, be slowed down by reducing our greenhouse gas emissions. The Paris Agreement reached at the end of COP21 which took place in Paris at the end of 2015, aimed at just that: set limits so that we do not further jeopardize our planet.
Although not perceived as a direct security threat, global warming triggers phenomena which do. Migrations and conflicts are now more prone to arise due to resource scarcity.
This issue explores how NATO has been indirectly affected by climate change, notably through natural disasters within its borders and migration, and what measures the Alliance has put in place as a reaction. The geopolitical implications of the melting of the ice cap will also be addressed.
Climate Security Volume 6 - Issue 02 February 2016
Contents: Climate Change and NATO: Integration and Adaptation
Ms. Candice Geinoz analyzes how climate change is perceived by NATO,
how the phenomenon has indirectly impacted the security of the Alliance, and
which measures have been put in place by the organization to protect itself
from the effects of climate degradation.
What Happens to the Arctic Does Not Stay in the Arctic…
And Vice Versa Mr. Andrea Bogi focuses on how the economic prospects liberated by the
melting of the ice cap and cooperation in the High North have been affected by
the deterioration of NATO-Russia relations.
Map showing the increase of temperatures in 2014 compared to 1884. (Image: NASA Scientific Visualization Studio)
Atlantic Voices, Volume 6, Issue 02 2
By Candice Geinoz
A military organization by definition,
NATO has , over the years ,
progressively widened its scope of
action to encompass concerns that are not military in
nature, but whose impacts are nonetheless crucial for
the Alliance’s security. Issues such as humanitarian
relief and hybrid warfare, among others, which stand
outside of NATO’s original goals, have gradually been
incorporated into NATO’s agenda while still
remaining secondary to defense concerns.
In its 2010 Strategic Concept, NATO integrated
the notion that climate change has the potential to
influence the Alliance’s security, by recognizing that
“key environmental and resource constraints,
including health risks, climate change, water scarcity
and increasing energy needs will further shape the
future security environment in areas of concern to
NATO, and have the potential to significantly affect
NATO planning and operations”. This integration,
especially by a military organization, represents an
important turning point in the gradual
acknowledgement of climate change and its impacts.
However, its implementation remained relatively
limited.
In the past few years, the call for action and
cooperation to tackle climate change got stronger, as
the impacts of environmental degradation started to be
felt in the Western Hemisphere. More extreme
weather events, such as hurricanes and earthquakes,
have been occurring more and more often in the Euro-
Atlantic region. In addition, the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change’ Conference
of Parties (COP21), which took place in Paris at the end
of 2015, gave climate change a strong momentum as
states began to comprehend and recognize the urgency of
the problem and the need to take this threatening
phenomenon into account when defining their national
security strategies.
NATO’s Position on Climate Change
NATO recognized the natural environment challenges
facing the international community in 1969 when it
created the Committee on the Challenges of Modern
Society (CCMS), a scientific body whose aim was to
study the environmental problems faced by developed
nations. In 2006, this body merged with the Science for
Peace and Security Program, to become NATO Science
for Peace and Security Division (NATO SPS Division)
and environmental issues found themselves mixed with
other questions such as science, cyber defence, energy
security and human and social aspects of security.
Today, environmental security has found its way into
the SPS’s key priorities, and entail the following three
focuses:
i. Security issues arising from key environmental and
resource constraints, including health risks, climate
change, water scarcity and increasing energy needs,
which have the potential to significantly affect NATO's
planning and operations;
ii. Disaster forecast and prevention of natural
catastrophes;
iii. Defence-related environmental issues.
Climate Change and NATO: Integration and Adaptation
Atlantic Voices, Volume 6, Issue 02 3
Following the integration of climate change into its
2010 Strategic Concept, NATO joined the Environment
and Security Initiative (ENVSEC), a partnership
composed of different international agencies (the United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the United
Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
(OSCE), the United Nations Economic Commission for
Europe (UNECE), and the Regional Environment
Centre for Central and Eastern Europe (REC)), providing
a combined pool of expertise and resources to comprehend
and address environmental problems that threaten security.
The Alliance contributes to the initiative through capacity
building and raising awareness. For example, NATO funded
programs in Eastern Europe and Central Asia to reduce
tensions and conflict related to environmental security issues
arising from uranium extraction in Central Asia.
The Alliance reiterated its will to take into account
climate-induced security challenges into its strategy on
numerous occasions. At NATO’s 2012 Chicago Summit,
the Alliance declared, through official publications, that
climate change will shape the future security
environment and therefore affect NATO’s planning and
operations, a declaration that was made again during
NATO’s Wales Summit in 2014. The implementation
into real actions of this acknowledgement remains,
however, limited, which pushed, Bulgaria’s Deputy
Defence Minister to urge the alliance members to adopt
a common approach to address the impacts of climate
change in December 2013, stating that common actions
needed to be undertaken. The recognition of climate
change as a factor that will shape the Alliance’s security
environment is a first step, but NATO’s actions until
now have aimed at adapting to climate change, while
forgetting to address the source of the problem, meaning
greenhouse gas emissions.
In a pre-COP21 context, NATO Parliamentary
Assembly, a consultative body formed by
parliamentarians from the Euro-Atlantic, adopted for
the first time a resolution that recognized climate
change as “a significant threat multiplier that will shape
the security environment in areas of concern to the
Alliance”. The resolution’s aims were to urge Alliance
members to take real commitments during the Paris
Conference in order to reduce the effects of climate
change.
Two elements explain the limited response from the
transatlantic community. First, the Euro-Atlantic has, in
general, been spared from the adverse consequences of
climate change, as temperate regions have been less
vulnerable to the associated risks of climate degradation.
Second, traditional military threats such as Russia’s
aggression in eastern Ukraine or the fight against Daesh
still have NATO’s full attention as they are much more
palpable and directly impact the security of the Alliance.
Climate-Induced Security Challenges
The impacts of climate change are diverse and vary
greatly between countries, depending on their location
as well as on their infrastructures. Some areas are much
more vulnerable and prone to disasters – arid and
coastal zones being the most risk prone. According to
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), an intergovernmental scientific body
established by the United Nations in 1988, if the current
trend of greenhouse gas emissions continues, global
temperatures will keep increasing. A rise in
temperatures will lead to various consequences, ranging
from more extreme weather patterns to the rise of sea
levels. It will in turn cause floods, more frequent
natural disasters, competition over resources, land
degradation, migrations, and so on.
Atlantic Voices, Volume 6, Issue 02 4
Migrations and Conflict
Already in the 1990s, the IPCC estimated that the
greatest possible impact of global warming would be
migrations, as resource scarcity would force populations
to move, hoping to find better living conditions
elsewhere. The displacement of populations due to
environmental degradation can have several impacts. A
changing climate will increase resource scarcity,
especially water and food shortage, as arid zones will
become even more arid. In those regions, an increase in
the population due to environmental migrations will only
exacerbate competition over said resources, which might
in turn lead to violent
conflict.
Contrary to a
widespread belief,
climate change and
e n v i r o n m e n t a l
degradation do not
d i r e c t l y c r e a t e
c o n f l i c t s , b u t
c o n t r i b u t e t o
exacerbate existing
tensions or natural
resource scarcities.
Climate change must
therefore be perceived as a force multiplier, meaning a
factor that increases the scale and seriousness of conflicts.
Moreover, climate change has the potential to make
already fragile states fail by acting as an accelerant of
instability, as poverty and increased tensions will put
pressure on the government to adequately meet the basic
needs of its population. In addition, the impacts of climate
change will have disproportionate effects on poor
countries with weak governance. From 2006 to 2011,
Syria suffered from extreme drought, which led to
increased poverty and the number of migrants moving
towards urban areas is estimated to be of two million.
Combined with mismanagement by the Assad regime, this
relocation has contributed to social tensions that have
precipitated the civil war and migration waves to Europe.
NATO’s response and actions regarding migrations
have remained limited, for the reason that climate-
induced migration is limited and poorly framed by
international law and regulations. Although the Alliance
acknowledges that migration can be a potential
consequence of climate change, NATO’s response on the
matter of population displacement has remained marginal
and focused on
protecting the
Alliance’s borders.
It is only in
February 2016 that
NATO Defense
Ministers agreed to
assist with the
refugee crisis, by
c o n d u c t i n g
reconnaissance and
monitoring illegal
crossings in the
Aegean in an effort
to counter human trafficking and criminal networks. It
must be stressed that the Alliance has always perceived
migrations and refugees through a socio-economic lens,
preferring to focus on human trafficking, and believing
that migrant issues were prerogatives of the European
Union and not of its direct concern. As climate change
will increase the scale and intensity of migrations, one can
easily imagine that climate-induced migrations are going
to be extremely challenging for the Alliance.
NATO Geo experts have created a map that predicts likely flooding areas in Afghanistan
(Photo: NATO)
Atlantic Voices, Volume 6, Issue 02 5
Natural disasters
Another serious consequence emanating from
climate change is the increase in scale, occurrence and
intensity of natural disasters. Although the majority of
NATO countries are not located in disaster-prone
regions, some areas are growing more risk-prone. For
instance, the Balkans were heavily hit by floods in 2010
and 2014, resulting in more than 12,000 people being
forced to move from their homes in the North and
Northwest regions of Albania. In 2015, the USA
suffered from severe droughts in California, which led
to massive forest fires that took weeks to contain.
Scientists agree that global warming caused by human
emissions has intensified the 2015 drought by 15 to 20
percent.
Responding to natural disasters with humanitarian
assistance is the dimension that has been the most
developed by NATO member states. The use of the
military as first responder in case of natural catastrophe
is not new, and NATO has filled this role multiple
times, for instance when Hurricane Katrina devastated
Louisiana in 2005. Since the end of the Cold War,
NATO has gradually expended its scope of action to
encompass humanitarian assistance. Through the Euro-
Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre
(EADRCC), composed of military and civilian staff,
NATO is able to provide disaster relief and it is the
principal civil emergency mechanism in the Euro-
Atlantic zone. The Centre offers both support to
national authorities in terms of supplies and capabilities,
but also provide expertise, even in countries that are
not part of NATO. In 2009 and 2011, the Alliance
extended its prerogatives to give direct access to the
Centre to partner countries. Pakistan, considered as
one of NATO’s Partners Across the Globe, was heavily
hit in 2005 by a huge earthquake that ravaged the
Kashmir region (climate change may have an impact on
will also have strong consequences on weapons systems,
as conditions such as prolonged temperature exposure
could negatively impact weapon use and efficiency.
Alternatives to vulnerable weapons and installations
must be accounted for in order to maintain an all-time
ready force.
Conclusion
Official integration of climate change as potentially
shaping the Alliance’s security environment has occurred
on multiple occasions since 2010. The implementation
of this acknowledgement has, however, taken some
time. NATO undertook various actions and engaged in a
number of initiatives to adapt to the effects of climate
change, but has until now failed to address the source of
the problem. Although the Alliance is trying to reduce
its resource consumption and its overall environmental
footprint, the question of reducing greenhouse gas
emissions remains mainly a national prerogative.
However, considering that NATO Secretary General
Jens Stoltenberg was once UN Special Envoy on Climate
Change, it is can be expected that climate change will be
further pushed on NATO’s list of priorities.
Atlantic Voices, Volume 6, Issue 02 7
It is time for the Alliance, both collectively and as
individual nations, to show real commitments to mitigate
the consequences of climate change. NATO, as an energy
reliant organization, must also commit to reducing its
consumption of fossil fuel and finding innovative ways of
adapting its activities to a degraded environment. NATO
should also continue to develop and reinforce
partnerships, especially in regions vulnerable to climate
change, such as the Arctic, the Middle East and North
Africa. As those regions are situated close to NATO
countries, enhancing cooperation and national
preparations in case of disaster is crucial to ensuring the
stability of the Euro-Atlantic.
Today, climate related missions are perceived as
diverting much needed human and financial resources
from places where conflicts take place to disaster-struck
regions. The fact is that climate change will make such
missions more and more frequent, for which NATO must
prepare and set aside the necessary manpower and
logistical means rather than maintain a passive approach
whereby the Alliance is forced to deploy in urgency and
take away resources from more traditional security
concerns.
Migrations are predicted to increase due to a changing
climate. This phenomenon should be seen as an
opportunity, as the Alliance could use it to greatly
improve its overall image by directly addressing climate
change as a serious security threat and organizing
cooperation initiatives aimed at countering and
preventing the effects of the phenomenon.
Although progress has been made, climate change
remains a long-term threat that seems to be quite far
from the present. Consequently, for the time being,
NATO seems to remain more focused on what is
happening in Ukraine and in the Middle East, as those
threats present tremendous short-term risks.
Candice Geinoz is a recent graduate in International
Relations and currently works for an environmental
NGO in Geneva. She focuses on environmental
security issues, with a keen interest in resource-related
conflicts.
BBC News. 2010. NATO joins Albania rescue effort after Balkan floods. BBC News. [Online] December 06, 2010. [Cited: January 08, 2016.] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-11931554.
Defense, Department of. 2013. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Military Installations: Policy Implications. s.l. : SERDP, 2013.
Dempsey, Judy. 2015. NATO's Absence in the Refugee Crisis. Strategic Europe. [Online] October 22, 2015. [Cited: February 02, 2016.] http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=61710.
Gillis, Justin. 2015. California Drought is Made Worse by Global Warming, Scientists Say. The New York Times. [Online] August 20, 2015. [Cited: February 02, 2016.] http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/science/climate-change-intensifies-california-drought-scientists-say.html?_r=0.
IISD. 2015. NATO: Climate Change Poses Significant Threat Multipliers. IIS. [Online] October 12, 2015. [Cited: February 02, 2016.] http://climate-l.iisd.org/news/nato-climate-change-poses-significant-threat-multipliers/.
NATO. 2014. Environment and Security (ENVSEC) Initiative. North Atlantic Treaty Organization. [Online] May 19, 2014. [Cited: February 10, 2016.] http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/109965.htm.NATO2016. NATO Defence Ministers Agree on NATO support to assist with the Refugee and Migrant Crisis. North Atlantic Treaty Association. [Online] February 11, 2016. [Cited: February 11, 2016.] http://www.nato.int/cps/e n / n a t o h q / n e w s _ 1 2 7 9 8 1 . h t m ?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=smc&utm_campaign=160211+refugee.
NATO. 2010. NATO's Strategic Concept 2010. NATO. [Online] November 19, 2010. [Cited: January 28, 2016.] http://www.nato.int/cps/fr/natohq/topics_82705.htm.
NATO Parliamentary Assembly. 2015. Climate Change and International Security. 2015. Resolution 427.
Time Magazine . 2015. How Climate Change is Behind the Surge of Migrants to Europe. Time Magazine. [Online] September 7, 2015. [Cited: January 25, 2016.] http://time.com/4024210/climate-change-migrants/.
NATO Parliamentary Assembly Science & Technology Committee (2015): The High North: Emerging Challenges and Opportunities. http://www.nato-pa.int/default.asp?SHORTCUT=4020
Baev, Pavel K. (2015): Russia’s Arctic Illusions. Brookings. From: http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/08/27-russia-arctic-geopolitics-baev
Emmerson, Charles & Lahn Glada (2015): Arctic Opening: Opportunity and Risk in the High North. Chatham House. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/public/Research/Energy,%20Environment%20and%20Development/0412arctic.pdf
Conley, A. Heather & Rohloff, Caroline (2015): The New Ice Curtain – Russia’s Strategic Reach to the Arctic. Centre for Strategic International Studies. http://csis.org/files/publication/150826_Conley_NewIceCurtain_Web.pdf
Kuersten, Andreas (2015): The Arctic Race that Wasn’t. Foreign Affairs, Aug 2015. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/2015-08-20/arctic-race-wasnt
Litvinova, Yulia & Makarov, Igor (2014): The Northern Window to the Global World. Rossiya v Globalnoy Politike, 18 December 2014. http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/The-Northern-Window-to-the-Global-World-17219
BMI Research (2015): Arctic Circle - Five-Way Territorial Dispute Frozen By Low Oil Prices. From: http://www.bmiresearch.com/news-and-views/arctic-circle-five-way-territorial-dispute-frozen-by-low-oil-prices
Deboer, Sally (2015): Collective Defence in the High North: It’s Time for NATO to Priortize the Arctic. Centre for International Maritime Security. http://cimsec.org/collective-defense-high-north-time-nato-prioritize-arctic/17437
About the author
Bibliography
This publication is co-sponsored by the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization
Atlantic Voices is always seeking new material. If you are a young
researcher, a subject expert or a professional and feel you have a valuable
contribution to make to the debate, then please get in touch.
We are looking for papers, essays, and book reviews on issues of
importance to the NATO Alliance. For details of how to submit your
work please see our website at: http://atahq.org/atlantic-voices/
Editor: Flora Pidoux
ATA Programs On March 1st, 15 ATA members will gather in Brussels for a series of
briefings at NATO Headquarters. Called ‘Brief the Briefers’, this visit
aims to educate ATA members on NATO’s core missions in order to
relay the information in the participants’ national chapters. For the
second edition of this program, NATO will brief the ATA participants on
issues related to the upcoming NATO Warsaw Summit, and more
specifically on hybrid warfare, NATO’s partnership policy and the threats
coming from the East and South.
ATA Secretary General Jason Wiseman lectured at the NATO
Advanced Training Course on “Countering the South East European
Terrorist Threat” which took place on February 14-19, in Ohrid,
FYROM. The event was organized by the Euro-Atlantic Council of
Macedonia, Norwich University and General Mihailo Apostolski Military
Academy. Jason Wiseman gave a lecture on “South East Europe Counter
Terrorism Strategies and Tactics” where he devised a tailored strategy and
tactics for counter terrorism directed at the authorities in South Eastern
Europe.
The Millenium Fellowship Program of the Atlantic Council is
accepting photo/essay submissions from young leaders in Europe under
35 for the “What NATO means to me” fellowship competition. Winners
of the competition will go through interviews, and ten of them will be
selected to win and expense-paid travel to the Future Leaders Summit
which will take place alongside the NATO Summit in July. More
information here: http://woobox.com/5scmm6
Images should not be reproduced without permission from sources listed, and remain the sole property of those sources. Unless otherwise stated, all images are the property of NATO.
Atlantic Voices is the monthly publication of the Atlantic Treaty Associa-
tion. It aims to inform the debate on key issues that affect the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization, its goals and its future. The work published in Atlantic
Voices is written by young professionals and researchers.
The Atlantic Treaty Association (ATA) is an international non-
governmental organization based in Brussels working to facilitate global
networks and the sharing of knowledge on transatlantic cooperation and
security. By convening political, diplomatic and military leaders with
academics, media representatives and young professionals, the ATA promotes
the values set forth in the North Atlantic Treaty: Democracy, Freedom,
Liberty, Peace, Security and Rule of Law. The ATA membership extends to 37
countries from North America to the Caucasus throughout Europe. In 1996,
the Youth Atlantic Treaty Association (YATA) was created to specifially
include to the successor generation in our work.
Since 1954, the ATA has advanced the public’s knowledge and
understanding of the importance of joint efforts to transatlantic security
through its international programs, such as the Central and South Eastern
European Security Forum, the Ukraine Dialogue and its Educational Platform.
In 2011, the ATA adopted a new set of strategic goals that reflects the
constantly evolving dynamics of international cooperation. These goals include:
the establishment of new and competitive programs on international
security issues.
the development of research initiatives and security-related events for
its members.
the expansion of ATA’s international network of experts to countries in
Northern Africa and Asia.
The ATA is realizing these goals through new programs, more policy
activism and greater emphasis on joint research initiatives.
These programs will also aid in the establishment of a network of
international policy experts and professionals engaged in a dialogue with
NATO.
The views expressed in this article are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Atlantic Treaty Association, its members, affiliates or staff.