on point Atlanta . Industrial Outlook . Q2 2012 Growth slows as hesitation enters the market Significant positive net absorption echoed from previous quarter’s leasing activity. Although, uncertainty slowed much of the second quarter’s forward progression. Total sales volume eclipsed the previous two quarters combined. Buyers and sellers inked deals on investment grade and value-add assets alike.
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on point Atlanta . Industrial Outlook . Q2 2012
Growth slows as hesitation
enters the market
Significant positive net absorption echoed from previous quarter’s leasing
activity. Although, uncertainty slowed much of the second quarter’s
forward progression.
Total sales volume eclipsed the previous two quarters combined. Buyers
and sellers inked deals on investment grade and value-add assets alike.
Jones Lang LaSalle • On Point • Atlanta Industrial Outlook • Q2 2012 3
Business Park are two of the few. Metro Atlanta’s fundamentals have continued to shift into balance
and away from a tenant favorable environment, although more slowly than previous quarters would
have led one to believe. As a response to previous deal volume, Atlanta’s total net absorption this
period surpassed the previous quarter’s, indicating the most appetite for industrial space since mid
2011. With new construction activity muted, additional supply to the market is limited allowing
vacancy rates to continue falling to pre-recession levels. Although overall average asking rental
rates have remained relatively flat, landlords are pulling back slightly on concessions, increasing
effective rates.
Depending on one’s perspective, hesitation is not always bad news. Third party logistics providers,
those which gravitate to big box submarkets such as the Northeast, Airport/South I-85 and I-20
West, have benefited from the market’s uncertainty. Firms are willing to accept higher marginal
costs to ensure flexibility in their supply chain and avoid long term capital commitments. Newer
well-located distribution and bulk warehouse space performed better than average as a result.
Atlanta industrial overview
Total industrial market (owner occupied included)
Supply Construction Vacancy Availability Demand Pricing
Total stock (s.f.) Under construction (s.f.) Rate Trend Rate Trend Q1 2012 net absorption (s.f.) Average rental rate (nnn)
Total industrial market 499,840,613 1,554,124 12.7% 18.6% 2,488,640 $3.02
Total flex market 35,102,282 0 20.2% 24.1% -163,076 $7.62
Trend spotlight… • Tenants participating in the food and beverage industry make up 25.0 percent of the
requirements for space. With operations requiring conditioned space and custom design
upgrades, these may become build-to-suit arrangements.
• Leasing activity was poorly distributed with much of the volume collecting under 30,000
square feet.
• Manufacturing space continues to diverge from the overall trends. Vacancy has increased
again over last quarter and, with negative demand, more space is available for lease.
• Rumors of speculative construction have been floated but IDI’s 653,484-square-foot Riverside
Parkway distribution center remains the only building going vertical not pre-leased.
Economy
Shifting into a lower gear, the local economy mirrored a second quarter national slowdown. US
gross domestic product decelerated to 1.5 percent, compared to first quarter’s 2.0 percent growth,
as both consumers and businesses reigned in spending. Political and economic uncertainty are
mostly to blame. Unknowns contributing to the quarter’s air of hesitation were the presidential
election, European debt crisis, Supreme Court’s health insurance verdict, Georgia’s transportation
referendum, and federal funding for Savannah’s harbor expansion project.
Leading indicators of industrial real estate demand such as consumer-confidence, expanded
payrolls, and Georgia’s purchasing manager’s index have all signaled a drag on the recovery.
Georgia Department of Labor data indicate Atlanta’s unemployment rate has held at a seasonally
adjusted 8.9 percent, rather than continuing its decline. The state’s payrolls faired slightly worse at
9.0 percent. This uncertainty adds to Atlanta’s summertime headwinds.
Despite the challenges felt worldwide, US exports rose by 5.3 percent. The Port of Savannah joined
in with a 3.8 percent increase in total export volume over the previous quarter offering additional
demand for the state’s distribution and warehouse space. Gas prices remained in check and the
positive effects of an unusually warm winter led to additional residential construction, though not as
much as during the first quarter.
Market conditions
Many decision makers participating in the market have chosen to wait for clarity before committing
to long term capital expenditures. Issues such as the expiration of Bush-era tax cuts and
unpredictable demand are adding to their hesitation. This period’s lease transaction volume is off
significantly from previous quarter’s, and has proven less evenly distributed. Few mid-sized tenants
have signed deals this quarter; Mobis Parts America at 1200 Oakley Industrial Boulevard for
301,152 square feet and Factory Direct Wholesale’s 119,900-square-foot deal at Berkeley Gwinnett
Jones Lang LaSalle • On Point • Atlanta Industrial Outlook • Q2 2012 4
Atlanta industrial overview, cont.
Outlook
Three years into the weakest recovery since World War II one thing is for certain, uncertainty is
widespread. Unanswered political and economic questions remain from the health of Asia and the
Eurozone, elections in Washington DC, Georgia’s transportation solutions, to our unemployed
neighbors. The momentum felt in previous quarters has slowed sharply and hesitation will affect the
remainder of 2012. Look to residential construction, particularly multifamily renovations, payroll
additions, inventory levels and consumer spending as a bellwether for growth of Atlanta’s industrial
real estate market.
Manufacturing space, which makes up 13.5 percent of the total industrial inventory, is likely to
continue to lose traction. One factor is that the buildings of yesterday oftentimes cannot
accommodate new mechanized and sustainability requirements of today’s operations. Because of
these capital intensive upgrades, many future facilities will likely be custom built. Similar trends can
be seen with e-commerce fulfillment centers as with Bed Bath and Beyond’s 810,000-square-foot
distribution center in Jackson County. Large users will likely continue to benefit from the current
market conditions, taking advantage of a wide variety of available space dispersed throughout the
metro. Smaller tenants, less than 100,000 square feet, operate in a more volatile local environment
and are more susceptible to swings in demand. These decision makers will likely wait for clarity
before committing to new space, choosing instead to extend current agreements.
Additional supply to the market will remain muted despite historically low interest rates and the
state’s pro-business demeanor. However, an additional speculative building or two may appear on
the radar before year’s end. Asking rents are stable in most of the market, though effective rents
are beginning to move up in the Airport/South I-85 and Northeast submarkets. Incentives such as
one month free rent per year of term are common in other poorer performing submarkets. Despite a
belabored local recovery, this year is likely to contribute more growth than in previous years
following the recession. Expect any major shifts in real estate fundamentals to occur post election.
Atlanta property clock
Land
lord
leve
rage
Tenant leverage
Peaking
market
Falling
market
Rising
market
Bottoming
market
Chattahoochee, Central Atlanta North Central, Northwest, I-20 West
I-20 East, South I-75
Airport/South I-85, Northeast
Jones Lang LaSalle • On Point • Atlanta Industrial Outlook • Q2 2012 5
Pricing trends
• Overall average asking rates remain relatively flat
• Effective rental rates are slowly rising in the more active submarkets
• Warehouse/distribution rates dropped overall since the previous quarter
• Submarkets which noticed a drop in warehouse/distribution rates include Airport/South I-85, Central Atlanta, I-20 East, North Central and the Northeast
• Metro-wide manufacturing asking rents fell by $0.02 to the same level of a year ago
• Metro-wide, flex pricing increased again, this quarter by $0.20
Atlanta industrial overview, cont.
YTD net absorption
Demand trends
• Absorption figures were strong this quarter in response to active leasing volume during previous quarters
• Airport/South I-85 posted a significant loss due primarily to Sears Logistics Services vacating 3700 Southside Industrial Way
• Demand in the Northeast was overwhelmingly driven by ‘big box’ users rather than smaller ‘bread and butter’ tenants
• The Northeast has had 9.0 straight quarters of positive net absorption totaling about 3.7 million square feet
• Manufacturing demand trailed off considerably this quarter, although there are several build-to-suits in various construction phases
• I-20 West put up its third quarter’s worth of positive net absorption
Average rental rate
-1,000,000
-750,000
-500,000
-250,000 0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
Chattahoochee
North Central
Central Atlanta
I-20 East
I-20 West
Northwest
South I-75
Airport/South I-85
Northeast
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
Airpor
t/Sou
th I-
85
I-20
Wes
t
South
I-75
I-20
East
North
east
Centra
l Atla
nta
North
west
Chatta
hooc
hee
North
Cen
tral
Jones Lang LaSalle • On Point • Atlanta Industrial Outlook • Q2 2012 6
Methodology…
The leased industrial sector excludes owner occupied
product from the market’s data set, and provides a rental
equivalent perspective for industrial buildings that are
leased by tenants. Buildings can move into and out of this
data set based upon being purchased or sold by a
particular user.
Recent lease transactions
Tenant name Location Submarket Deal type Size (s.f.)
New Breed Logistics 5400 Fulton Industrial Boulevard I-20 West New 439,000
FedEx 4644 SouthPark Boulevard South I-75 New 401,600
Mobis Parts America 1200 Oakley Industrial Boulevard Airport/South I-85 New 301,152
Tenants in the market
Tenant name Submarket concentration Size requirement (s.f.)
Total leased flex market 25,615,345 25.2% 29.3% -139,139 $7.49
Sector trends… • Tenants involved in the food and beverage industry are some of the most active in the
market, making up approximately 25.0 percent of all known significant requirements.
• Manufacturing firms are choosing build-to-suit scenarios over renovating existing facilities
because of a dwindling supply of suitable stock. Mitsubishi’s Satellite Boulevard facility
and Toyota Industries’ new plant are two examples of the move toward custom
construction.
• The Manufactures Alliance for Productivity Index corroborated Georgia’s Purchasing
Manager’s Index data, noting that activity has slowed over the quarter. Inventories are
sitting on shelves longer and the pipeline of new orders has diminished somewhat.
Atlanta leased industrial market [excluding owner occupied facilities]
Jones Lang LaSalle • On Point • Atlanta Industrial Outlook • Q2 2012 7
rental income and modern cost efficiencies needed to justify lower cap rates. Price per square foot
is often used instead as a determinate of value, due also in part to Atlanta’s relatively high vacancy
rate in the class B/C segment. Overall sales volume of this property has declined since 2011, but so
to have the number of delinquencies. It appears that much of the volatility seen in previous years
was alleviated by recent modifications and value-add plays. This is a strong indication that Atlanta’s
non-core asset capital market is stabilizing.
Expect REITS to continue with their strategy of disposing poorer preforming stock in favor of
securing more durable cash flow and better located real estate. Investors with their ear to the ground
will continue taking advantage of the hesitation in the market to pick up property at a discount. Cash
rich firms may also do the same. Atlanta’s recovery is still fragile and susceptible to major shocks.
Barring any large scale economic disruption on the world stage and evaporation of positive GDP
growth, albeit slowing, healing of the metro’s capital markets should continue into next year.
Atlanta industrial capital markets overview
I-20 West 7545 Hartman Industrial Way
RBA 569,673 s.f.
Buyer Duke Realty
Seller The Opus Group
Price (p.s.f.) $46.25
Date sold June 2012
Airport/I-85 South 7320 Oakley Industrial Boulevard
RBA 400,000 s.f.
Buyer Exeter Property Group
Seller Exel
Price (p.s.f.) $20.28
Date sold May 2012
Atlanta select sales
Average sales price (p.s.f.) and cap rates by year (warehouse, distribution & manufacturing only)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Avg. price (p.s.f.) Cap rate
I-20 West 747 Douglas Hill Road
RBA 913,000 s.f.
Buyer LaSalle Investment Management
Seller Stockbridge Capital Group
Price (p.s.f.) $43.81
Date sold April 2012
Industrial properties continue to be a highly sought-after investment. Their stable cash flow and
ability to maintain value over time corresponds with many investors’ goals. Those participating in
Atlanta’s capital markets have leveraged the current slowdown to secure additional assets. This
quarter LaSalle Investment Management acquired the Quaker Oats distribution center and Duke
Realty selected Hartman Business Center V. These properties both sold at sub 7.0 percent cap
rates, evidence that a thirst for investment grade property with credit tenants exists locally. Relative
to other cities in the US, Atlanta’s stock is affordable. It remains an option for investors priced out of
other more costly markets where attainable top-quality properties are scarce at reasonable prices.
A dichotomy exists, however, between local core assets and other classes of industrial property.
Older functionally obsolete warehouse and distribution facilities are not as able to command stable
Jones Lang LaSalle • On Point • Atlanta Industrial Outlook • Q2 2012 8
Statistics
Large block availabilities
Construction map
Contacts
Appendix
Jones Lang LaSalle • On Point • Atlanta Industrial Outlook • Q2 2012 9
Atlanta industrial market statistics
Vacancy: Physically vacant space. Total Vacancy includes both direct and sublease space.
Availability: Space being marketed for lease by owner or sublessor, regardless of occupancy. Total Availability includes both direct and sublease space.
Net Absorption: The net change in occupancy over a measured period of time.
Average Asking Rent: Direct monthly values presented on a NNN basis, then weighted by the amount of direct available space in a building.
Statistics reflect the total industrial market, including owner occupied facilities
Vacancy: Physically vacant space. Total Vacancy includes both direct and sublease space.
Availability: Space being marketed for lease by owner or sublessor, regardless of occupancy. Total Availability includes both direct and sublease space.
Net Absorption: The net change in occupancy over a measured period of time.
Average Asking Rent: Direct monthly values presented on a NNN basis, then weighted by the amount of direct available space in a building.
Statistics reflect the total industrial market, including owner occupied facilities.
Jones Lang LaSalle • On Point • Atlanta Industrial Outlook • Q2 2012 11
Vacancy: Physically vacant space. Total Vacancy includes both direct and sublease space.
Availability: Space being marketed for lease by owner or sublessor, regardless of occupancy. Total Availability includes both direct and sublease space.
Net Absorption: The net change in occupancy over a measured period of time.
Average Asking Rent: Direct monthly values presented on a NNN basis, then weighted by the amount of direct available space in a building.
Statistics reflect the total industrial market, including owner occupied facilities.
Jones Lang LaSalle • On Point • Atlanta Industrial Outlook • Q2 2012 12
Atlanta industrial buildings with large block availabilities
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