Athens

WEAKSIGNALs

Futures Window- a tool to trigger futures thinking

Elina [email protected]

Finland Futures Research Centreblog: www.omasana.fi/heikotsignaalit

WEAKSIGNALs

What is a weak signal ? (a theoretical view)

The future sign

A news story inHelsingin Sanomat

Second hand clothes in H&M

OBJECT,Emerging issue

REPRESENTAMEN, signal

INTERPRETANT,interpretation

What if…

H&M makes secondhand fashion in the future?

vintage

Source: E. Hiltunen, The Future Sign and Three Dimensions of It, accepeted for publication for Futures

WEAKSIGNALs

What is a Weak Signal ?(consultant approach)

A weak signal test

1. Makes your colleagues to laugh2. You collagues are opposing

it:no way, it will never happen 3. Makes people to wonder4. No one has heard about it

before5. It is wanted that no-one talks

about it anymore (a tabu)1-5 ticks and it is a weak signal!

WEAKSIGNALs

What to do with weak signals?

1) Anticipating the future changes

Collect weak signals think what if?

WEAKSIGNALs

2)Innovating = weak signals break our mental models trigger new ideas

WEAKSIGNALs

Power of Images:

”A picture tells more than 1000 words”

WEAKSIGNALs

TEST 1,

Finnish Summer

WEAKSIGNALs

Finnish summer

In Finland people tend to go to their summer cottages when they are having their summer holidays. Idealistically, a cottage is located next to lake which makes it possible to swim, go to sauna (located usually next to a lake/sea), row, fish, barbeque, pick berries etc. A perfect scenery at summer includes birch trees, water, more trees, sun shining from a sky with cotton clouds.

WEAKSIGNALs

Finnish summer

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• Time of both of the slides were 10 seconds,

Which of them gave you better view of Finnish summer?

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TEST 2.

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I saw: A hippo breaking in the curve

WEAKSIGNALs

Visual weak signals

• Information quicker

• Various interpretation (gift of misinterpretation => breaking mental models)

• No language barriers

WEAKSIGNALs

Tool for triggering futures thinking= The

Futures Window

How to use ws?

WEAKSIGNALs

The Futures Window

How to use ws?

WEAKSIGNALs

48 visualweak signals projected to the wall

group work based on thevisual weak signals, P1

a questionnaire of the method for participants

2 pilots at VTT2006, 2007

Testing FWHow to use ws?

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Testing FWHow to use ws?

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Testing FW at VTT

Dates Occasions Key idea Material

Pilot 1 17th November and 1st December, 2006

Two seminars Futures Window material as a starting point of exercises

Power point show of 48 visual weak signals (10 second for each images at the time)

Pilot 2 From 26th February till 2nd March, 2007

A continuous image show for one week in DigiHouse’s lobby

Trigger futures thinking of by passers

Same as in the Pilot 1

WEAKSIGNALs

Questions in Pilot 1

1. Futures Window gave me new ideas about the future.

2. The Futures Window could be a useful activator of futures thinking in my own work.

3. In my opinion, it is important to to think in a futures oriented way in my work.

4. In VTT (or other organization, if I am outside of VTT), there could be Futures Windows for example in canteens and coffee rooms.

5. It should be possible for all employees to send images to the Futures Window.

6. The Futures Window gave me new ideas about the possibilities of the technology area that I am working with in the future.

WEAKSIGNALs

Pilot 1.

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

100,0

FD SD SA FA ? FD SD SA FA ? FD SD SA FA ? FD SD SA FA ? FD SD SA FA ? FD SD SA FA ?

claim 1 claim 2 claim 3 claim 4 claim 5 claim 6

claims and answers

pro

cen

tag

e o

f re

spo

nd

ents

FD= fully disagree, SD= somehow disagree, SA=somehow agree,FA= fully agree, ?= cannot say, N= 30 (40,5% response rate)

Futures Window gave me new ideas about the future.

The Futures Window could be a useful activator of futures thinking in my own work.

In my opinion, it is important to to think in a futures oriented way in my work.

In VTT there could be Futures Windows for example in canteens and coffee rooms.

It should be possible for all employees to send images to the Futures Window.

The Futures Window gave me new ideas about the possibilities of the technology area that I am working with in the future.

WEAKSIGNALs

Images that stuck to people’s mind

Reason Number of times mentioned by respondents

It irritated me 7

It was a new thing to me 10

It amazed me 5

It made me laugh 8

It raised my interest 16

It raised positive feelings 24

It raised negative feelings 18

Some other reason 11

WEAKSIGNALs

Questions in Pilot 2.1. Futures Window gave me new ideas about the future.2. The Futures Window could be useful activator of futures

thinking in my own work. 3. In my opinion, it is important to think in a futures oriented

way in my work.4. In VTT (or other organization, if I am outside of VTT) there

could be Futures Windows for example in canteens and coffee rooms.

5. It should be possible for all employees to send images to the Futures Window.

6. The Futures Window could be taken advantage of also in project works, for example in seminars or brain storming sessions.

7. The Futures Window adds the creativity and innovativeness of the working environment

8. The Futures Window could be shown again with new images in the lobby of DigiHouse for example once a year

9. I have told about the Futures Window or discussed about it with my colleagues or friends.

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Feedback:FW Pilot 2 at VTT

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

disagree agree disagree agree disagree agree

got new ideas about future FW activates futures thinking more FW at VTT

pe

rce

nt

How to use ws?

N=16 (from all together 39 respondents)

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Conclutions

• Potential tool for triggering futures thinking in organizations

• Employee commitment by possibility to send own images

• Needs a place to stand still and discuss

• Possibility to use FW at excersices and brain storming too

WEAKSIGNALs