At EnergyNomics we specialize in discerning patterns from the flows of data; both in oil based energy and in economics and finance. Our special areas of.

At EnergyNomics we specialize in discerning patterns from the flows of data; both in oil based energy and in economics and finance. Our special areas of focus are the international and Venezuelan oil market and theVenezuelan economy & politics.

There are two objectives that we seek:First and foremost is to provide our clients with expertly analysed and fundamental information to help with the decision making of their companies, All for the benefit of their clients, workers and stock-holders.

Second, to provide to the best of our Capabilities sound advice to the policy Making authorities in accordance to the Best known practices that the energy and Economic sciences can offer. A short list of the flows that we look at are:

Balance of PaymentsConsumptionDutch Disease EconometricsEconomic GrowthEnergy AlternativesEnergy Return on Energy InvestedExchange RatesExportsFiscal PolicyForecasts (our own and others)Government AffairsImportsInternational ReservesMonetary PolicyOil ReservesOil StocksPoverty PolicyPricesProductionVenezuelan PoliticsVenezuela Non-Oil Economy

ECONOMICS-ECONOMIA

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Cesta Venezuela $$ Paralelo

En 2008 el Gobierno de Venezuela instituye el “Bolivar Fuerte” dividiendo los valores nominales entre 1000 eE instruyo el tipo de cambio a 4:30 bs/$$. En este gráfico todos los valores entre 1980 y 2007 del Dólar paralelofueron divididos entre 1000. Julio 2013 se crea el Sicad-1, Marzo 2014 se crea el Sicad-2; Febrero 2015 se crea elSimadi. Ninguno logra vencer al Dólar paralelo mientras los precios petroleros sigan bajando. Desde 2012 el coeficiente de correlación R entre estas dos variables ha sido fuertemente negativa= -0,82694

CESTA PETROLERA DE VENEZUELAY DÓLAR PARALEO.

Mar.2015

1998 2003 2012 2013

EXTREMA

POBREZA

POBLACION

23,25 25,51 29,5 30,06

11,2 14,97,3 9,1

4,5 7,12,0 2,7

POBREZA EN VENEZUELAMillones de Personas

UN-HEALTHY SPREAD

-20,0%

-10,0%

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

50,0%

60,0%

GDP% INFLACION% INFLA-IMPORT%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

30,0%

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

INFL ACION ALIM ENTOS YBEBID AS NO ALCOH OLIC AS88% d esd e 2013-I. (2014 M ayo) BCV

VENEZUELA

-4,0%

-2,0%

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

World Advanced Economies Latin America-Caribbean

GDP

-20,0%

-10,0%

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

50,0%

60,0%

70,0%

GDP ∆% INFLATION ∆% EXPORTS ∆%

v

VENEZUELA

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

INGRESOS FISCALES %GDP CURRENT ACCT %GDP

8

>

BCV

INE

M1/M2

Food Inflation 2012

1,2%

0,5%

1,1%

1,8%

0,8%

0,2%0,4%

2,0%

2,8%

3,3%

FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG `SEP OCT NOV