Astutie Widyarissantie Climate Change Adaptation Unit Ministry of Environment and Forestry “INVENTORY SYSTEM OF CLIMATE VULNERABILITY INDEX”
Jan 12, 2016
Astutie WidyarissantieClimate Change Adaptation Unit
Ministry of Environment and Forestry
“INVENTORY SYSTEM OF CLIMATE VULNERABILITY INDEX”
INTRODUCTION• Global warming and climate change is predicted to alter the
pattern of future climate risks• The national development that is not consider to the climate
change will be affected significantly, due to their vulnerability to an impacts and it also will bring consequences on development goals achievement
• The World Bank stated that the losses due to climate change and disaster in Indonesia estimated at 7% of GDP
• Indonesia had launched National Action Plan for Adaptation (RAN API) on February 2014
• To monitor the effectiveness of climate resilient development which planned in the NAP, it is necessary to provide tools and methods for assessing the vulnerability of a system or sector
NAPA Targets Framework
3
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ADAPTIVE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
ECONOMY RESILIENCE
LIVELIHOOD RESILIENCE
ECOSYTEM RESILIENCE
STRENGTHENING SUPPORT SYSTEM
SPECIAL AREAS RESILIENCE
Knowledge Management, Planning and Financing, Capacity Building, Monitoring and Evaluation
Main Objective
Targets
Adaptation Action Plan (RAN-API)
4
Economy Resilience
Social and Livelihood Resilience
Ecosytem Resilience
Special Area Resilience
Supporting System
Food Security
Energy Independency
Health
Settlement
Infrastructure
Urban Area
Coastal and Small Islands Area
5 clusters
SECTOR SUB-SECTOR CLUSTER
7 clusters
4 clusters
4 clusters
4 clusters
4 clusters
7 clusters
5 clusters
5 clusters
ACTION PLAN
Cluster 1: Adjustment of Food Production Systems1. Minimize yield loss by reducing the area
exposed / puso by floods2. …….
Cluster 1: Identification and control factors1. Mapping populations and areas vulnerable
to climate change 2. …….
Cluster 1: Repair / Improvement of Spatial Planning and Land Classification of Land1. Identification and mapping vulnerability
forests, marine ecosystems, watersheds, and biodiversity of the climate change
2. …….
Cluster 1: Integrating spatial planning with adaptation efforts1. Preparation of maps of vulnerability to
climate change for urban areas 2. …….
Cluster 1: Capacity building for stakeholders in the climate change adaptation 1. Education, counseling, and training on
the climate change adaptation2. …….
SCHEME OF INTERACTION BETWEEN EXPOSURE, SENSITIVITY AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO THE THREAT
RISK
Climate Variability
Climate Change
Threat
Government
Mitigation & Adaptatiion
Social-Economy
CLIMATE DEVELOPMENT
Emission and Land-use Change
Impact to Human and Ecosystem
Sources: IPCC, 2014
Adaptive Capacity
Exposure
INVENTORY SYSTEM OF CLIMATE VULNERABILITY INDEX
(SIDIK-Sistem Inventarisasi Data Indeks Kerentanan
Perubahan Iklim)1. Instrument used for monitoring level of vulnerability at local and
national level check the effectiveness of development policy.
2. Outputs SIDIK:• Index showing the coping range of villages to climate change• Showing the level of vulnerability of village (as combination of
exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) into quadrant system;• Based on biophysics, socio-economics indicators • Could compare the level of Vulnerability between villages at
national level.
Applying the Concept: Assessing Vulnerability Using Quadrant Method – Basis for MONEV System
ACI Low ACI High
ESI High
ESI Low
Quadrant1
Quadrant2
Quadrant2
Quadrant4
Quadrant4
Quadrant 5
Quadrant 5
To assess relative position of village based on vulnerability index, Indonesia applies quadrant method to locate position of a village in the quadrant based on the Exposure and Sensitivity Index (ESI) and
Adaptive Capacity Index (ACI). If ESI and ACI value in Quadrant 5, we can define the village very vulnerable. With CCA actions, it is
expected the position of village will move to better position (e.g. from 5 to 4, or to 3, or to 2 or to 1
Quadrant3
Quadrant3
Boer et al., 2010
Applying the Concept: Assessing Vulnerability Level of Villages in Jakarta
-0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5200520082011
SEI
ACI
Low ACI & High
SEI
High ACI & Low
SEI
Low ACI & Low
SEI
High ACI & High
SEI
Monitor the change in Vulnerability of Village over time: Jakarta Case
[Baseline 2005]
• WHERE, WHAT and WHEN the adaptation should be prioritized and synergized?
• WHAT policy supports needed?• WHAT Institutional Arrangement?
ILLUSTRATION OF SIDIK
Choose 1 province (example: Aceh) then will display: Location
(Province) and SEI & ACI
Province positioning in the quadrant
Colour Indicators according to the quadrant
Spidergraph for AC Spidergraph for SEI
Choose one area province (for example aceh), the will display:
Name of province, SEI and ACI values
Position of the province in the quadrant
Each color has indicates position of area in the quadrant
Identification of Indicators for defining Level of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of Villages: Basis for Developing MONEV of CCA
AIndicator for adaptive capacity (ACI)
Weight
BIndicator for sensitivity and level exposure (SEI)
Weight
A1 Electricity facility 0.10 B1No. HH live near river side
0.05
A2 Education facility 0.45 B2No Building near the river side
0.05
A21 TK (Kindergarten) 0.07 B3 Source of drinking water 0.10
A22 SD (Elementary School) 0.13 B31 - Pipe (PDAM) 0.25
A23 SMP (Junior High School) 0.20 B32 - Wells 0.50
A24SMU (Senior High School)
0.27 B33 - Spring 0.50
A25 Universities 0.30 B34 - Lake/river 0.75
A3 Main source of income 0.10 B35 - Rainfall 1.00
A4 Health facility 0.35 B4 Population density 0.15
A41 Puskesmas 0.20 B5 Poverty Level 0.10
A42 Polyclinic 0.30 B6 Waste fraction 0.25
A43 Posyandu 0.20 B7 No HH in slump ares 0.15
A44 Midwife 0.10 B8No building in slump area
0.05
A45 Medical doctor 0.20 B9 Land Subsidence 0.10
Input-Processing-Output of SIDIKINPUT PROCESSING OUTPUT
Statistic Data of the Village
User: Formula modification1. Type: National or Local Level2. Adding the indicators3. Updating index weight
measurement
SIDIK:Inventory System for Vulnerability
Index
Extreme rainfall data
User: Analysis Scoping1. Analysis Scope: National,
Provincial, Districts or City2. Analysis Level: at most
one level is under the scope
Information:SEI: Sensitivity & Exposure IndexACI: Adaptive Capacity IndexCRI Index: Coping Range IndexClimate Risk: Flood & Drought
National:MOEF
Local:Provincial/
District/City
Other Stakeholder
INTEGRATION OF RELEVANT DATA BETWEEN SECTORS/INSTITUTIONS
1: Exposure Indicators, 2:Socio-economic & culture, 3: Threat and Climate Disaster, and 4: verification of vulnerability indicators by local government
sources: Boer, 2014
MOEF: SIDIK &
Climate Risk
Private
Local Task Force
NGO
Sumber: Boer, 2014
Utilization of Vulnerability Assessment To Synergizing CCA and DRR
CONCLUSION• Online SIDIK CAN be utilized by local government and sectors
FOR defining vulnerability and to evaluate effectiveness of implementation of national or local development to reduce vulnerability
• Online SIDIK can be used to assist of prioritization process related to area and program to address threats of Climate Change
• Online SIDIK needs to further improvement and bring an additional indicators that can be represent exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity
• Institutional cooperation to provide spatial/land use, economy social, climate risk needs to further development
• Training and Assistance for local staff to optimize SIDIK System effectively