Asti @ caadp pp

The current state of agricultural R&D investment and capacity: A valuable benchmark to gauge future S3A progress

Gert-Jan Stads and Nienke BeintemaInternational Food Policy Research Institute

Presentation at the Science Agenda parallel session at the 10th CAADP PPDurban | March 19, 2014

S3A Context

• “S3A is based on the belief that science is too important to be continually outsourced to international investors”

• “African countries must make domestic investments in science for agriculture”

• “Every country requires a basic science capacity as an essential part of an agricultural led social and economic transformation”

Knowledge on the current status of agricultural R&D investment and capacity is needed to monitor S3A progress in the future

Good news: public spending and capacity increased

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

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1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Total number of FTE researchers

Mill

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2005

PPP

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Spending

Researchers

2000 2011 Increase

Spending (million PPP$)

1,208 1,692 +40%

Researchers (FTEs)

9,470 14,230 +50%

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Big NARS, small NARS

2011 (40-country sample)

< 100 FTEs: 12 countries > 500 FTEs: 7 countries

Increase in researcher quantity, not quality

• Recent capacity growth mostly driven by increasing numbers of MSc and BSc researchers

• 10 out of 24 countries reported declines in the absolute number of PhD holders during 2008–2011

26-country sample

0

1,000

2,000

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Tota

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PhD MSc BSc

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PhD holders

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PhDs approaching retirement age in many countries

• In 17 of 36 countries, more than half the PhD holders are older than 50; problem more pronounced in West Africa

• In contrast, growing numbers of young scientists elsewhere

• Urgent need to recruit and train next generation of scientists

2011 (36-country sample)

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Leso

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(4)

Mal

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Gui

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(42)

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33.634.335.937.843.1

68.169.6

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188.1237.2

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PPP

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2011 (40-country sample)

< 10 million PPP $: 20 countries > 100 million PPP $: 4 countries

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Aver

age

Shar

e (%

)

Most countries fail to meet investment targets

Target (UN/NEPAD): Allocation of at least 1% of GDP to R&D

• On average, 0.51% of AgGDP in SSA was spent on public agricultural R&D in 2011

• SSA’s intensity ratio has declined since 2008 due to relatively stronger growth in AgGDP than in agricultural R&D spending

• Caution when analyzing intensity ratios!

2011

Spending growth: not everywhere and not fast enough

Target (UN expert group): 5% annual spending growth over the next decade

• 2000–2011 marked by spending decline or stagnation in about half of the 30 countries with time series data

• Since 2008, however, more and more countries have experienced positive growth.

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Annu

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Main drivers of region-wide growth in spending, 2000–2011

+2.7%

Governments fund salaries, donors the rest

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Ghana

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Uganda

Mali

Burkina Faso

SalariesOperating and program costsCapital investments

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Ghana

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Uganda

Mali

Burkina Faso

GovernmentDonors and development banksCommodity leviesOwn resourcesOther

Cost categories Funding sources

2011

Donors are a major source of funding volatility

• Annual agricultural R&D spending in SSA has been considerably more volatile than in other developing regions

• Donor/development bank funding is generally short-term and ad-hoc (and 3 times more volatile than government funding)

• Therefore, volatility is more pronounced in donor-dependent low-income countries

Tanzania

Burkina Faso

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

0

20

40

60

80

100

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

0

10

20

30

40

Concluding remarks

• Encouraging signs that many African countries are moving in the right direction (albeit slowly):– Increasing government and donor funding– Recruitment bans being lifted; improved salaries and

benefit packages; retirement age increases– Importance of agricultural R&D is increasingly recognized

(S3A, CAADP, G8, G20, UN post-2015 Development Agenda, WAAPP/EAAPP)

• Nonetheless, much more is needed to tackle the various challenges facing African agricultural R&D

• ASTI indicators provide a valuable benchmark for monitoring future S3A progress

Thank you