Top Banner
Astec LifeSciences Ltd. BUY - 1 of 22 - Mondayy 30 th March, 2015 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. STOCK POINTER Target Price `210 CMP `140 FY17E PE 7.9x Index Details Astec LifeSciences Ltd. (ASL) is an Indian manufacturer of agrochemical active ingredients, formulations and intermediate products. Until FY12 Astec operated only in one segment i.e. Enterprise Sales where it produced and sold active ingredients and bulk formulations. The company stepped up its expansion journey in FY13 when it broadened its business activities by venturing into two new verticals viz, Contract Manufacturing Operations and Enterprise Sales. Contract Manufacturing Operations (CMO): Under this segment Astec manufactures key Fungicide and Herbicides outsourced by other major companies. It is a high margin segment and Astec expects this segment to drive the growth in coming years. Sales from CMO are expected to grow at 63.4% CAGR from 35.4 crores in FY14 to 153.48 crores by FY17E. Enterprise Sales (ES): Contributing 75% of the Total Revenue, ES is currently the mainstay of ASL. The revenue from ES is expected to grow steadily at 9.3% CAGR on higher base as company expects to develop and market technically advanced products in coming years Expansion of business activities coupled with margin improvement leads us to believe that the growth momentum of Astec LifeSciences will continue. We expect Astec LifeSciences to report three year net revenue CAGR of 23.4% to `388.8 crores by FY17. We expect PAT to increase at a 3 year CAGR of 54.5% to `32.0 crore in FY17 and the company to report an EPS of `17.8 in FY17. We initiate coverage on Astec LifeSciences as a BUY with a Price Objective of Rs. 210 representing a potential upside of ~50% over a period of 24 months. The target price is arrived at by assigning a PE multiple of 12x on FY17 EPS of `17.8. At the CMP of Rs. 140, the stock is trading at a PE multiple of 7.9x FY17E. Sensex 27,975 Nifty 8,492 Industry Agrochem Scrip Details MktCap (` cr) 260.9 BVPS (`) 61.3 O/s Shares (Cr) 1.9 AvVol (Lacs) 1.1 52 Week H/L 32/161 Div Yield (%) 0.9 FVPS (`) 10.0 Shareholding Pattern Shareholders % Promoters 58.1 DIIs 1.5 FIIs 0.2 Public 40.2 Total 100.0 Astec vs. Sensex 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Astec Life BSE Sensex Key Financials (` in Cr) Y/E Mar Net Sales EBITDA PAT EPS (`) EPS Growth (%) RONW (%) ROCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) 2014 207.0 34.8 8.7 4.7 - 7.6 10.0 29.9 10 2015E 254.9 47.0 16.0 8.6 82.9 12.7 14.5 16.2 7.5 2016E 311.0 60.1 21.6 11.7 36.0 15.2 17.5 12.0 6.1 2017E 388.8 78.8 32.9 17.8 52.1 19.8 20.9 7.9 4.8
22

Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

Oct 06, 2020

Download

Documents

dariahiddleston
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

Astec LifeSciences Ltd.

BUY

- 1 of 22 - Mondayy 30th

March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

ST

OC

K P

OIN

TE

R

Target Price `210 CMP `140 FY17E PE 7.9x

Index Details Astec LifeSciences Ltd. (ASL) is an Indian manufacturer of agrochemical active ingredients, formulations and intermediate products. Until FY12 Astec operated only in one segment i.e. Enterprise Sales where it produced and sold active ingredients and bulk formulations. The company stepped up its expansion journey in FY13 when it broadened its business activities by venturing into two new verticals viz, Contract Manufacturing Operations and Enterprise Sales.

Contract Manufacturing Operations (CMO): Under this segment Astec manufactures key Fungicide and Herbicides outsourced by other major companies. It is a high margin segment and Astec expects this segment to drive the growth in coming years. Sales from CMO are expected to grow at 63.4% CAGR from 35.4 crores in FY14 to 153.48 crores by FY17E.

Enterprise Sales (ES): Contributing 75% of the Total Revenue, ES is currently the mainstay of ASL. The revenue from ES is expected to grow steadily at 9.3% CAGR on higher base as company expects to develop and market technically advanced products in coming years

Expansion of business activities coupled with margin improvement leads us to believe that the growth momentum of Astec LifeSciences will continue. We expect Astec LifeSciences to report three year net revenue CAGR of 23.4% to `388.8 crores by FY17. We expect PAT to increase at a 3 year CAGR of 54.5% to `32.0 crore in FY17 and the company to report an EPS of `17.8 in FY17. We initiate coverage on Astec LifeSciences as a BUY with a Price Objective of Rs. 210 representing a potential upside of ~50% over a period of 24 months. The target price is arrived at by assigning a PE multiple of 12x on FY17 EPS of `17.8. At the CMP of Rs. 140, the stock is trading at a PE multiple of 7.9x FY17E.

Sensex 27,975

Nifty 8,492

Industry Agrochem

Scrip Details

MktCap (` cr) 260.9

BVPS (`) 61.3

O/s Shares (Cr) 1.9

AvVol (Lacs) 1.1

52 Week H/L 32/161

Div Yield (%) 0.9

FVPS (`) 10.0

Shareholding Pattern

Shareholders %

Promoters 58.1

DIIs 1.5

FIIs 0.2

Public 40.2

Total 100.0

Astec vs. Sensex

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Astec Life BSE Sensex

Key Financials (` in Cr)

Y/E Mar Net

Sales EBITDA PAT

EPS (`)

EPS Growth (%)

RONW (%)

ROCE (%)

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

2014 207.0 34.8 8.7 4.7 - 7.6 10.0 29.9 10

2015E 254.9 47.0 16.0 8.6 82.9 12.7 14.5 16.2 7.5

2016E 311.0 60.1 21.6 11.7 36.0 15.2 17.5 12.0 6.1

2017E 388.8 78.8 32.9 17.8 52.1 19.8 20.9 7.9 4.8

Page 2: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 2 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Company Background

Established in 1994, Astec LifeSciences is an Indian manufacturer of

agrochemical active ingredients, formulations and intermediate products. Astec

has a portfolio of fungicide and herbicide technical products and is a leader in

Triazole fungicides for Indian and global markets. Astec is a signatory to the

International Council of Chemical Association’s Responsible Care Initiative for

standards in Quality, Safety and Environment parameters.

Robust facilities at disposal: The Company has 2 multiproduct plants in Mahad, Maharashtra and an R&D site, manufacturing and pilot plant in Dombivli near Mumbai. The sites are certified to ISO 9001 (Quality), ISO 14001 (Environment) and OHSAS 18001 (Safety) standards.

Astec LifeSciences Ltd.

Enterprise Sales Revenue Share: 75% EBITDA Margin: 19.5%

Contract Manufacturing Operations Revenue Share: 75% EBITDA Margin: 20.2%

Branded Formulations: Revenue Share: 9% EBITDA Margin: 7%

Sale of active ingredients and bulk formulations to Agrochemical companies worldwide

Outsourced manufacturing services of key herbicides and fungicides for global companies

Sale of branded formulations in India through its subsidiary Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd.

Mahad and Dombivli plant

Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research

Mahad I and Mahad II Plant Plant

Dombivli R&D centre and pilot plant

Page 3: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 3 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Key Investment Highlights

Robust growth on the cards:

We expect Astec’s revenue to grow from 206.9 crores in FY14 to 388.8

crores by FY17. This growth is expected to be guided by its CMO business,

where it has added marquee clients to its portfolio. We expect CMO segment

to grow at CAGR of 63% to Rs. 153.5 crores by FY17 and constitute around

40% of sales. Meanwhile the Enterprise Sales is expecte to grow from 167.4

crores to 218.4 crores by FY17 at CAGR of 9.3%. The newly formed

Branded Formulations business is experiencing high growth but on a low

base. This division should experience significant growth as company builds

its PAN India foot print.

Past performance:

Astec LifeSciences’ topline grew at CAGR of 45% over FY06 to FY10 as its

Net Sales soared from merely 26 crores to 112 crores over same period

while PAT rocketed to 13.8 crores from just 3.4 crores. However FY11 came

as a challenging year for the company as its sales declined by 2% and

EBITDA margin tumbled by as much as 800 bps to 14.4% as against 22.4%

in FY09. PAT plummeted to 4.9 crores in FY11 and further down to 1.4 crores

in FY12 from 13.8 crores in FY10.

Astec LifeSciences past performance:

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

Sales (RHS) PAT Margin % (LHS) EBITDA Margin % (LHS)

Consolidation

% Rs. in crs

Source:Astec LifeSciences., Ventura Research

Page 4: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 4 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

The key reasons for this slump were:

The slack in the overall market conditions and unfavorable weather

conditions in certain parts of the world that led to destocking of

inventories by their main consumers.

There was over production that took place globally in 2010 and 2011

which put downward pressure on the pricing. This led to fall in margins

especially for the smaller players.

The negative sentiment continued in FY2012 and this coupled with

increase in Raw material prices further led to reduced profitability.

Astec experienced severe capacity constraints until 2012, as it operated

only one plant at Mahad and a R&D center at Dombivli

Until 2013 company kept its forex exposures open leaving it unhedged

resulting into forex losses. In FY12 alone Astec face forex loss of 1.8

crores.

Astec’s performance during the slump period was in line

with peers:

The plight of other small players in Agrochemical and organics industry

was similar in FY11 and FY12.

Over supply of pesticides and Agrochemicals globally, fall in crop sales in

domestic market, lower realizations and higher input prices caused

depletion of margins as companies started to destock their inventories at

low prices.

Page 5: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 5 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Astec LifeSciences Ltd.

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

Net Sales Operating Margin (RHS)

Rs. in crs %

Source: Astec LifeSciences, Ventura Research

Excel Crop Care Ltd.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

Net Sales Operating Margin (RHS)

Rs. in crs %

Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research

Meghmani Organics Ltd.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

Net Sales Operating Margin (RHS)

Rs. in crs %

Source: Meghmani Organics, Ventura Research

Monsanto India Ltd..

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

Net Sales Operating Margin (RHS)

Rs. in crs %

Source:Monsanto, Ventura Research

Page 6: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 6 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Learnings from slump period to bolster future growth:

The learnings from the slump period led to some radical changes in Astec’s

business strategy. Year 2012-13 was a turnaround for the company as it

eliminated its bottleneck and resumed its growth journey after two years of

consolidation. The remedial measures initiated in the latter half of the year

2011-12 and carried through in the year 2012-13 led to significant progress in

the year 2012-13 in various critical areas of Company performance.

Company identified two new business lines namely, Contract

Manufacturing Operations (CMO) and the Retail business for Branded

Formulations.

Astec continued to focus on product registrations and received many

registrations taking its overall registered product portfolio to 214 across 32

countries including 139 registrations in India.

It invested heavily on Capex for buying another land parcel at Mahad and

setting up an effluent treatment plant in order to reduce effluent treatment

cost and address environmental regulatory needs.

In FY14 Astec tied up with a foreign exchange company and framed its

forex policy, whose effect will be visible FY15 onwards.

Astec LifeSciences Capex over the years.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

Rs. in crs

Source: Astec LifeSciences, Ventura Research

Page 7: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 7 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Path ahead: Capacity expansion and new lines of business to

bolster growth:

The optimism for Company’s growth raises from the following events:

In its Enterprise Sales segment, Astec is aiming at developing 2-3 new

technically advanced products every year. Their product selection strategy

will remain geared towards new generation, high growth molecules which

present a large opportunity in India and overseas territories. Astec has

also entered into exclusive product supply agreements with global

customers which provide committed volumes and high visibility on future

revenue. It intends to commercialize 5-6 of its registered products over

coming years. Presently, ASL is the leading producer of Triazole products

which has an estimated market size of 650 crores in India and 12,000

crores globally. The catalogue business of the company, which currently

contributes to 75% of top line, is expected to grow at 9.3% CAGR.

Estimated growth of Enterprise Sales segment

(10.00)

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Enterprise Sales growth

%

Source: Astec LifeSciences, Ventura Research

Page 8: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 8 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

The newly commenced Contract Manufacturing Operations vertical is

expected to grow strongly. Astec currently has two major deals, one with

Nufarm Australia Ltd. an Australian MNC for 10 years and another one

with a Japanese giant Sumitomo Chemicals. ASL expects combined

revenue of 110 crores from these two contracts by 2016. Both the

contracts are ‘take or pay’ contracts and thus the business from these

contracts is secluded from volatile demand or bad weather conditions.

Going ahead Astec expects this segment to be their growth engine, it has

already started having dialogues with prospective client to get them on

board and management is confident that something will come through and

they expect pipeline of growth from this segment. Astec is well positioned

to capitalize from opportunity in this segment as multinationals are moving

manufacturing from high cost western economies to India and China

Major part of Astec’s revenue will be driven by CMO and Retail

businesses. CMO is expected to grow at a CAGR of 63.4% and is

expected to comprise 40% of total revenue by 2017.

Estimated sales from CMO and Branded drugs

(20.00)

-

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

CMO Retail

Source: Astec LifeSciences, Ventura Research

Page 9: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 9 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Commenced in 2011-12, the Branded Formulations or the Retail division

of Astec is a small business but is growing rapidly. In this segment,

company sells drugs under its brand name. Until FY14 Company operated

in only 6 states, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Himachal, Punjab and

Haryana but now it is scaling up its business to 4 more states, Andhra

Pradesh, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Over next five

years Astec expect to have a Pan India presence. The current market size

of this segment is 10,000 crores and is expected to reach 25,000 crores

by 2019.

Retail business is expected to clock revenue growth of 35.1% CAGR over

FY14 to FY17 period and by FY17 it will account for 10% of Astec’s total

revenue

Margin expansion on the cards:

Company’s margins were on free fall as it almost halved from 25.2% in FY09

to merely 13.7% in FY12. Since then company’s focus has been on recouping

its margin to a sustainable level.

Enterprise Sales:

Astec has a strong pipeline of products under development and

intends to launch 2 – 3 new products annually with an emphasis on

process innovation and IP generation to create a sustainable, ‘first

mover’ advantage and deliver strong revenue and margin growth.

It incurred capex to set up its effluent treatment plant and make it

more efficient and cost effective. At its plant at Mahad Astec started

manufacturing certain components for captive consumption which

further helped them to reduce costs.

Contract Manufacturing Operations (CMO)

Under CMO, the two major deals with Nufarm and Sumitomo are

contracted on ‘cost plus profit’ basis. Thus company’s margins are

insulated against any escalation in input prices.

Company’s weighted average margins for CMO and Enterprise Sales

are expected to be in range of 20-22%.

Page 10: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 10 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Branded Formulations:

Margins for this segment are on lower side primarily because of high

employee cost. However Astec intends to scale up its business to

four new states by mobilizing its existing employee strength.

Astec seeks to introduce new products and create brand leadership

in select segments.

Employee costs are expected to be contained during the expansion

period as Astec will be mobilizing its current manpower.

Weighted average margin for CMO and ES

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

CMO and ES Margin

%

Source: Astec LifeSciences, Ventura Research

Branded Formulations’ margin expected to grow steadily

(25.0)

(20.0)

(15.0)

(10.0)

(5.0)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

BF margin

%

Source: Astec LifeSciences, Ventura Research

Page 11: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 11 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Leverage set to improve:

Astec’s Long term borrowings comprises of ECB of Rs. 13 crores, which

will exhaust by FY16 and INR loan to the tune of Rs. 18 crores which will

last 3.5 years. Company’s current D/E is 0.8 expected to come down

marginally to 0.7 by FY17.

Company is experiencing higher collection period of 8 months for its Retail

Branded business. However, it aims to undertake some measures to bring

down this period to 4 months by FY17. The overall working capital cycle is

expected to improve from 154 days in FY14 to 136 days by FY17.

Astec LifeSciences Efficiency Chart

-

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Debtors Days Inventory Days Working Capital cycle

No. of days

Source: Astec LifeSciences, Ventura Research

Page 12: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 12 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Strong customer retention record:

Astec has a unique distinction of not losing a single client since its inception

and it has been regularly adding clients to its portfolio.

Agrochemical product Volume (Kl/ MT) Rs. In crs

Tricylazole (F) 2,000.0 210.0

Propiconazole (F) 2,500.0 187.5

Hexaconazole SC (F) 7,500.0 211.5

Glyphosate (H) 10,000.0 324.0

Pendimethlin (H) 4,000.0 124.0

Metribuzin (H) 1,000.0 110.0

Acephate (I) 20,000.0 780.0

Buprofezin (I) 4,000.0 300.0

Acetamiprid (I) 2,000.0 210.0

Market share of major Agrochemicals in which company deals

F- Fungicide; H- Herbicides; I- Insecticides

Source: Ventura Research

Share of largest customer

25

19

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

FY13 FY14

Largest client

%

Source: Astec LifeSciences, Ventura Research

Share of top 3 customers

46

39

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

48.0

FY13 FY14Top 3 clients

%

Source: Astec LifeSciences, Ventura Research

Page 13: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 13 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Robust Global Outlook augurs well for Astec:

The global crop protection industry has registered a CAGR of 5% p.a. from

FY06 to reach $53Bn in FY13. This market is expected to grow further at a

CAGR of 6% p.a. to reach ~$ 71.3 Bn by FY18.

Global distribution of Agrochemicals market

29%

25%

23%

19%

4%

Europe Asia North America Latin America RoW

Source: FICCI, Ventura Research

Astec has diverse Geographic presence

65.00%

22%

7%5%

1%

India Europe Ameracas Asia (Ex India) Others

Source: Astec LifeSciences, Ventura Research

State wise consumption

24%

13%

11%7%7%

38%

AP (incl Telangana) Maharashtra Punjab Karnataka Gujarat Others

Source: FICCI, Ventura Research

Astec’s presence in Branded Retail business

Source: FICCI, Ventura Research

Areas of expansion

Page 14: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 14 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Indian agrochemical industry to grow at a faster pace than the

global average:

The Indian Agrochemical Industry is estimated at Rs. 263Bn in 2014 with

exports accounting for nearly 50% of the total market. It is expected to grow

at a CAGR of 12% between 2014 and 2019 to reach a size of ~ Rs. 463Bn.

Fungicides and herbicides are expected to drive future growth due to rapidly

growing demand for fruits and vegetables and rising cost of agricultural labor.

Product wise categorization- Global Market

44%

27%

22%7%

Pesticides Herbicides Fungicides Others

Source: FICCI, Ventura Research

Product wise categorization- Indian Market

65%

15%

15%

4%

Pesticides Herbicides Fungicides Others

Source: FICCI, Ventura Research

Page 15: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 15 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Key Growth Drivers:

Increasing demand for food grains: India has 16% of the world's population

and less than 2% of the total landmass.

Emphasis on yield maximization due to limited farmland availability:

India has ~190 Mn hectares of gross cultivated area and the scope for

bringing new areas under cultivation is severely limited.. The pressure is

therefore to increase yield per hectare which can be achieved through

increased usage of agrochemicals.

Potential for improving Productivity: India has low crop productivity as

compared to other countries. Average productivity in India stands at 2 MT/ha

as compared to 6 MT/ha in USA and world average of 3 MT/ha. At the same

time, India's pesticide consumption is also low at 0.60kg/ha as compared to

the world average of 3 kg/ha. Hence, increased usage of pesticides could

help the farmers to improve crop productivity.

Increasing exports: Indian companies have successfully expanded into

other geographies for exports and this trend has been increasing in recent

times. The export market is expected to grow at 15%

Patent cliff augurs well for the Indian industry: Between 2009 and 2014

many molecules got off patent throwing the market open for generic players.

The total viable opportunity through patent expiry is estimated at over USD 3

Bn. Astec is currently working on a Triazole product for which patent was

earlier held by Bayer CropScience.

Per capita consumption of pesticides

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

USA China India France UK Korea

Kg/Ha

Source: FICCI, Ventura Research

Page 16: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 16 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Key Risks:

Vagaries of monsoons: Agrochemicals industry has strong linkage with

agriculture sector which is affected by irrational monsoon. In India, 64%of the

cultivated land depends on rains. A weak monsoon leads to poor harvest

which in turn also impacts the Agrochemicals industry negatively, further it

creates a situation of oversupply leading to pricing war.

Low focus on R&D by domestic manufacturers due to high costs: R&D

to develop a new agrochemical molecule takes an average of 9 years and

~Rs. 1,000 Cr. Indian companies typically have not focused on developing

newer molecules and will face challenges in building these capabilities, while

continuing to remain cost competitive.

Working Capital intensive industry structure: The industry suffers from

high inventory (owing to seasonal and irregular demand on account of

monsoons) and long credit periods to farmers, thus making operations

'working capital' intensive.

Threat from Genetically Modified (GM) seeds: Genetically modified seeds

possess self immunity towards natural adversaries which have the potential to

negatively impact the business of agrochemicals.

Longer period for registration of innovative products: In India,

registration of new products takes 3-5 years which discourages domestic

manufacturers.

Page 17: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 17 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Financial Performance:

In Q3FY15, Astec reported almost 13% YoY increase in Net Sales to Rs. 57.3

crores mainly led by CMO segment. Quarterly EBITDA grew by 37% YoY to

Rs. 12.2 crores and for 9MFY15 it grew by 33.8% YoY and stood at Rs. 36.4

crores. Margin improvements have been remarkable, for 9MFY15 EBITDA

margin increased by 380 bps to 20.8% while for Q3 EBITDA margins were

21.2% vs. 17.6% YoY. PAT for Q3 grew at 66.7% YoY to Rs. 3.5 crores and

for 9MFY15 PAT grew at 62.5% to Rs. 11.7 crores vs. 7.2 crores YoY. PAT

margin expanded by 220 bps boosted by increase in operating margins.

Quarterly Financial Performance ( Rs. In crores)

Particulars Q3FY15 Q3FY14 9MFY15 9MFY14

Net Sales 57.3 50.7 174.5 160.2

Growth % 12.9 8.9

Total Expenditure 45.3 41.8 138.6 132.5

EBITDA (ex OI) 12.2 8.9 36.4 27.2

EBITDA Margin % 21.2 17.6 20.8 17.0

Depreciation 3.9 3.8 11.7 11.0

EBIT 8.2 5.1 24.7 16.4

Other Income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2

EBIT 8.2 5.1 24.7 16.2

Margin % 14.3 10.1 14.2 10.1

Interest 3.6 2.7 9.6 7.2

Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PBT 4.6 2.4 15.1 9.0

Margin % 8.0 4.8 8.6 5.6

Provision for Tax 1.1 0.3 3.4 1.8

PAT 3.5 2.1 11.7 7.2

PAT Margin % 6.2 4.2 6.7 4.5

Source: Astec LifeSciences, Ventura Research

Page 18: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 18 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Financial Outlook:

A combination of fresh product launches, addition of new clients and scaling

up of Retail business are expected to add to the growth momentum of the

company. We expect Astec Lifesciences to report 3 year Net Sales CAGR of

23.4% to Rs. 389 crore and Consolidate PAT CAGR of 53.7% to Rs. 31.5

crores in FY17. We expect the company to sustain margins

Consolidated Sales

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Source: Astec LifeSciences, Ventura Research

Consolidated PAT

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Source: Astec LifeSciences, Ventura Research

EBITDA and PAT Margin

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

EBITDA Margin (LHS) PAT Margin (RHS)

Source: Astec LifeSciences, Ventura Research

Page 19: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 19 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Valuation:

We initiate coverage on Astec LifeSciences as a BUY with a price objective of

Rs. 210 representing a potential upside of ~62% over a period of 24 months.

We have used price multiple approach to value Astec. Our target price implies

an FY17 P/E of 12x.

Astec LifeSciences P/E Band

0

50

100

150

200

250N

ov-

09

Mar

-10

Jul-

10

No

v-1

0

Mar

-11

Jul-

11

No

v-1

1

Mar

-12

Jul-

12

No

v-1

2

Mar

-13

Jul-

13

No

v-1

3

Mar

-14

Jul-

14

No

v-1

4

Mar

-15

CMP 4x 8x 12x 16x 20x

Source: Astec LifeSciences, Ventura Research

Page 20: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 20 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Peer Comparison ( Rs. In crores)

Y/E March Sales EBITDA PAT

EBITDA

Margin

PAT

Margin ROE(%) P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA

Astec LifeSciences

2014 207.0 34.8 8.7 16.8% 4.2% 7.6% 29.9 2.3 10.0

2015E 254.9 47.0 16.0 18.4% 6.3% 12.7% 16.2 2.1 7.5

2016E 311.0 60.1 21.6 19.3% 6.9% 15.2% 12.0 1.8 6.1

2017E 388.8 78.8 32.9 20.3% 8.5% 19.8% 7.9 1.6 4.8

Excel Cropcare

2014 955.7 111.5 66.5 11.7% 7.0% 24.1% 14.1 3.1 8.6

2015E 1183.4 130.2 83.4 11.0% 7.0% 25.0% 11.1 2.5 7.3

2016E 1420.0 156.2 100.2 11.0% 7.1% 24.8% 9.3 2.1 6.1

2017E 1704.1 187.4 120.7 11.0% 7.1% 24.6% 7.7 1.7 5.1

Bayer CropScience

2014 3146.2 426.7 289.5 13.6% 9.2% 15.8% 42.9 7.1 22.7

2015E 3794.5 528.9 386.1 13.9% 10.2% 19.1% 32.9 5.9 22.9

2016E 4452.9 653.1 465.4 14.7% 10.5% 17.0% 27.4 4.9 18.6

2017E 5182.2 773.8 570.4 14.9% 11.0% 20.0% 23.0 4.1 15.7

PI Industries

2014 1586.9 294.2 188.0 18.5% 11.8% 30.7% 48.6 13.2 31.5

2015E 1892.9 364.8 240.6 19.3% 124.7% 29.7% 37.4 10.3 25.4

2016E 2309.6 456.7 305.6 19.8% 13.2% 29.5% 29.6 8.0 20.3

2017E 2802.1 570.5 387.2 20.4% 13.8% 29.1% 23.4 6.2 16.2

Rallis India

2014 1725.7 273.0 151.9 15.8% 8.8% 22.7% 33.1 7.0 18.6

2015E 1893.0 281.8 169.0 14.9% 8.9% 21.0% 30.6 6.1 18.1

2016E 2204.5 349.1 214.8 15.8% 9.7% 23.2% 24.2 5.2 14.6

2017E 2518.6 416.4 254.5 16.5% 10.1% 24.3% 19.8 4.4 12.2

Source: Astec LifeSciences, Ventura Research

Comparison with Peers (FY 14)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

Rallis

PI Ind

Excel

Bayer

Astec

ROI (%)

RO

E (%

) Rallis

PI Ind

Excel

Bayer

Astec

ROI (%)

RO

E (%

) Rallis

PI Ind

Excel

Bayer

Astec

ROI (%)

RO

E (%

) Rallis

PI Ind

Excel

Bayer

Astec

ROI (%)

RO

E (%

)

Source: Ventura Research

2 Year Fwd PEG Comparison

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

2 Y

r Fw

d P

/E

2 Year EPS growth

Astec

PI IndBayer

Rallis

Excel

Source: Ventura Research

Page 21: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 21 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Financials and Projections

Y/E March, Fig in ` Cr FY14 FY5E FY6E FY17Ee Y/E March, Fig in ` Cr FY14 FY5E FY6E FY17Ee

Profit & Loss Statement Per Share Data (Rs)

Net Sales 207.0 254.9 311.0 388.8 Adj. EPS 4.7 8.6 11.7 17.8

% Chg. 23% 22% 25% Cash EPS 12.7 16.9 21.0 28.5

Total Expenditure 172.2 207.9 250.9 309.9 DPS 1.0 1.8 2.4 3.7

% Chg. 21% 21% 24% Book Value 61.3 67.9 76.7 90.1

EBDITA 34.8 47.0 60.1 78.8 Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio

EBDITA Margin % 17% 18% 19% 20% Debt / Equity (x) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7

Other Income 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Current Ratio (x) 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2

PBDIT 35.2 47.4 60.5 79.3 ROE (%) 8% 13% 15% 20%

Depreciation -14.8 -15.3 -17.4 -19.9 ROCE (%) 10% 15% 17% 21%

Interest -9.2 -9.8 -10.8 -12.1 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Valuation Ratio (x)

PBT 11.1 22.3 32.3 47.3 P/E 27.6 14.9 11.1 7.3

Tax Provisions 2.5 6.3 10.7 14.4 P/BV 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.4

Reported PAT 8.7 16.0 21.6 32.9 EV/Sales 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9

PAT Margin (%) 4% 6% 7% 8% EV/EBIDTA 9.5 7.1 5.7 4.5

Adj. PAT 8.7 16.0 21.6 32.9 Efficiency Ratio (x)

Manpower cost / Sales (%) 5.5% 5.4% 5.3% 5.0% Inventory (days) 175.2 170.5 161.4 153.0

Other opr Exp / Sales (%) 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% Debtors (days) 94.6 87.3 89.1 84.8

Tax Rate (%) 20.2% 20.2% 20.2% 20.2% Creditors (days) 115.0 109.6 110.3 101.7

Balance Sheet Cash Flow statement

Share Capital 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 Profit After Tax 8.65 15.97 21.58 32.89

Reserves & Surplus 95.0 107.0 123.3 148.2 Depreciation 25.43 24.73 27.78 31.56

Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Working Capital Changes -13.89 -3.23 -14.47 -11.31

Long term Borrowings 49.7 37.4 36.1 36.0 Others -2.38 -3.25 -7.18 -10.50

Deferred Tax Liability 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.8 Operating Cash Flow 17.82 34.21 27.70 42.64

Long term Provisions 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.5 Capital Expenditure -19.04 -22.49 -22.45 -30.47

Total Liabilities 168.1 168.1 182.8 208.1 Change in Investment 0.36 0.37 0.42 0.51

Gross Block 187.2 209.7 232.1 262.6 Cash Flow from Investing -18.68 -22.12 -22.03 -29.97

Less: Acc. Depreciation 55.0 70.3 87.7 107.6 Proceeds from equity issue 1.24 0.00 0.00 0.00

Net Block 132.2 139.4 144.5 155.0 Issue Exp 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Capital Work in Progress 5.8 6.4 7.2 8.3 Dividend and DDT -2.17 -3.93 -5.31 -8.09

Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash Flow from Financing 0.19 -7.84 -4.88 -5.92

Net Current Assets 18.6 14.7 22.3 31.7 Net Change in Cash -0.67 4.25 0.80 6.75

Long term Loans & Advances 11.5 7.6 8.8 13.0 Opening Cash Balance 5.14 4.47 8.72 9.52

Total Assets 168.1 168.1 182.8 208.1 Closing Cash Balance 4.47 8.72 9.52 16.27

Page 22: Astec LifeSciences Ltd. - Moneycontrol.comchats.moneycontrol.com/plus/upload_pdf_file/AstecLife...Astec Crop Care Pvt. Ltd. ant Source:Excel Cropcare Ltd., Ventura Research Mahad I

- 22 of 22- Monday 30h March, 2015

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Disclosures and Disclaimer Ventura Securities Limited (VSL) is a SEBI registered intermediary offering broking, depository and portfolio management services to clients. VSL is member of BSE, NSE and MCX-SX. VSL is a depository participant of NSDL. VSL states that no disciplinary action whatsoever has been taken by SEBI against it in last five years except administrative warning issued in connection with technical and venial lapses observed while inspection of books of accounts and records. Ventura Commodities Limited, Ventura Guaranty Limited, Ventura Insurance Brokers Limited and Ventura Allied Services Private Limited are associates of VSL. Research Analyst (RA) involved in the preparation of this research report and VSL disclose that neither RA nor VSL nor its associates (i) have any financial interest in the company which is the subject matter of this research report (ii) holds ownership of one percent or more in the securities of subject company (iii) have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report (iv) have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months (v) have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in past twelve months (vi) have received any compensation for investment banking merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months (vii) have received any compensation for product or services from the subject company in the past twelve months (viii) have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. RA involved in the preparation of this research report discloses that he / she has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. RA involved in the preparation of this research report and VSL discloses that they have not been engaged in the market making activity for the subject company. Our sales people, dealers, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on the companies covered herein with recommendations/ information inconsistent or different those made in this report. In reviewing this document, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest. We may rely on information barriers, such as "Chinese Walls" to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us, or other areas, units, groups or affiliates of VSL. This report is for information purposes only and this document/material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein. It is for the general information of the clients / prospective clients of VSL. VSL will not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of clients / prospective clients. Similarly, this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives. Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for his/ her/their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional/financial advice. And such person shall be responsible for conducting his/her/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this document. The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results, and such variances will likely increase over time. All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company. These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accepted accounting principles. No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts. You should not regard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by VSL, its associates, the authors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved. For these reasons, you should only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report, including the assumptions underlying such projections and forecasts. The price and value of the investments referred to in this document/material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. We do not provide tax advice to our clients, and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potential investment. VSL, the RA involved in the preparation of this research report and its associates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. This report/document has been prepared by VSL, based upon information available to the public and sources, believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete. VSL has reviewed the report and, in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The opinions expressed in this document/material are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change. This report or recommendations or information contained herein do/does not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessible media and should not be reproduced, transmitted or published by the recipient. The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only. This publication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of VSL. This report or any portion hereof may not be printed, sold or distributed without the written consent of VSL. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information, may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of VSL and are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, estimate or projection. This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of, or by arrangement with the company or any of its directors or any other person. Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or its directors or any other person. Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors. None of the company or its directors or any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized reading, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized. Please ensure that you have read “Risk Disclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segments” as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in Securities Market. Ventura Securities Limited Corporate Office: C-112/116, Bldg No. 1, Kailash Industrial Complex, Park Site, Vikhroli (W), Mumbai – 400079