Association of unversities and colleges of canada oil sands

Canada’s Oil SandsOn A Global Stage

Association of Universities and Colleges of CanadaApril 21, 2013

1 Photo: Cenovus

Enabling Responsible Development

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Global Primary Energy Demand

Source: International Energy Agency – New Policies Scenario World Energy Outlook 2011

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

million tonnes oil equivalent

Other RenewablesBioenergyHydroNuclearNatural GasOilCoal

Source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2012

Global Crude Oil Reserves by Country

26 25 213037

48

8092

102

141155

173

265298

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Vene

zuel

a

Saud

i Ara

bia

Cana

da

Iran

Iraq

Kuw

ait

Abu

Dha

bi

Rus

sia

Liby

a

Nig

eria

Kazh

akhs

tan

Chin

a

Qat

ar

Uni

ted

Stat

es

billi

on b

arre

ls

Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec. 2012

Includ

es 169

billion

barre

ls

of oil s

ands re

serves

Restricted(81%)

Open to Private Sector

Oil Sands 56%

Other 44%

World Oil ReservesOpen to

Private Sector

Canada’s Oil Sands Resource

Two Methods of Oil Sands Recovery

Pho

to: C

onoc

oPhi

llips

-S

urm

ont

Schematic: Devon - Jackfish

Drilling: 80% of reserves Mining: 20% of reserves

Canadian Oil Sands (Bitumen and SCO) & Conventional Production Forecast

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Jan-

2005

Jul-2

005

Jan-

2006

Jul-2

006

Jan-

2007

Jul-2

007

Jan-

2008

Jul-2

008

Jan-

2009

Jul-2

009

Jan-

2010

Jul-2

010

Jan-

2011

Jul-2

011

Jan-

2012

Thousand b/d

Eagle Ford(Texas)N. Dakota

SK Light

AB Light

Light/Tight Oil Production

+ 750,000 b/d in 2 years

2011 Canada and U.S. Demand for Crude Oil by SourceThousand Barrels per Day

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

UnitedStates

China Japan Korea India EuropeanUnion

mm

b/d

Net oil imports in the New Policies Scenario

2005

2011

2020

2035

Changing Global Oil Import Needs

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012, EIA

TRADITIONALMARKET

FUTURE MARKETS?

Access to Markets – Pipeline Expansions in Development

WCSB Takeaway vs Supply Forecast

Western Canada Crude Oil Rail Exports

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• Q3/2012 = 70,000 b/d• Q1/2013 ~ 120,000 b/d• Q4/2013 ~ 200,000 b/d

• ~4% of WCSB production

• Opportunities:• Relatively quick• Flexibility – different

markets – East • Less diluent• Use rail in both

directions

• Challenges:• Higher costs• Limited loading and

tank car availability

Oil Sands Environmental Performance

Environmental Performance

• Production§ COSIA§ GHG emissions§ Water – oil sands/tight oil§ Land/tailings

• Regulation and Monitoring§ Enhanced oil sands

monitoring – more sites, more transparency

§ Up to $50M/yr paid by industry

Global GHG Emissions

GHG emissions from oil sands:§ just over 1/1000th of global GHG emissions§ 6.9% of Canada’s GHG emissions§ 26% reduction in intensity from 1990

Global Emissions Canada’s 2%

U.S.18%

European Union12%

Other26%

China25%

Russian Federation

5%

Australia/New Zealand

1%

India7%

Japan4%

Canada2%

Other Energy - Stationary

31.2%

Other Oil & Gas15.2%

Industrial Processes7.4%

Agriculture8.0%

Energy Transport28.0%

Oil Sands6.9%Waste

3.2%Solvent & Other

Product Use0.0%

Sources:1. United Nations Statistics Division (2009 Data)2. Environment Canada (2010 Data)

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• Carbon regulation § Provincial Regulation

• Covers 100% of oil sands• Mandatory 12% reduction• Carbon price since July 2007

§ Federal Regulation• Alignment with US (17% target

and vehicle emissions standards)• Coal sector done, moving ahead

with oil sector regulation in 2013

• Reducing GHG Emissions§ Using energy more efficiently

• Capturing CO2§ Governments investing over $3 billion –

partners with industry§ Shell Quest CCS proceeding

0

5

10

15

20

25

Oil Sands GHG Emissions/bbl

26%

g co

2 eq

./mj

1990 2010

North American GHG Emissions (2011)for Coal-fired Power and Oil Sands

0-15 mtonnes16-50 mtonnes51-100+ mtonnes

Legend

U.S. Coal fired power generating plants

Canadian coal-fired power generating plants

Canadian oil sands

Sources: U.S. DOE/EIA & Environment Canada

GA

TX

NC

MI

AL

MO KY

IN OH

NE

NM

ND

CO

SC

KS

IA

TN

WY

VA

MN

UT

OK

WI

AZ

AR

AK

LA

IL

NV

OR

MT

SD

NJ

NY

NH

MS

WV

FL

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

North Sea - Forties

Brazil - Tupi

Saudi Arabia - Arab Light

US Barrel Refined in the U.S. (2005)

Iraq - Kirkuk Blend

Cdn Oil Sands: Mining Dilbit (PFT)

Mexico - Maya

Venezuela Bachaquero

US - Mars

Cdn Oil Sands: Low SOR SAGD Dilbit

Iraq-Basra Light

Canadian Oil Sands: SAGD Dilbit

Nigeria - Bonny Light

Cdn Oil Sands: Mining SCO

US -Kern River

Venezuela - Petrozuata

kgCO2e per barrel of refined product

Well-to-tank

Refined productCombustion

Full-cycle GHG EmissionsOil Sands & U.S. Refined Crudes

Source: IHSCERA Oil Sands Dialogue Getting the Numbers Right 2012

+5%

U.S. Barrel Refined in the U.S. (2005)

+2%

Less Energy, Less Water and Less Land

• Alternatives to reduce the need for both water and energy (steam)§ Cogeneration – steam and electric power§ Solvent/steam injection§ Alternative well configurations for SAGD§ Electro-thermal technology

• Water reduction and recycle§ Use of saline (non-fresh) water for steam§ Faster waste water recycle§ Water technology development centre

• Land reclamation§ Faster Forests – 600,000 seedlings in 2011§ Winter wetland planting

Ceramic membranes for water treatment

Faster Forests

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Jobs andEconomic Benefits

• Investing $61 billion in Canada in 2012• $21 billion to governments in 2011 (Royalties and Taxes)• 20% of the value on Toronto Stock Exchange• Approx. 18% of Canada’s exports• Employs more than 550,000 in Canada

The Oil and Natural Gas IndustryA Key Driving Force in the Canadian Economy

Upstream Oil& Gas

AutoManufacturing

Forestry& Logging

Wheat &Barley

Uranium

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Suppliers across Canada

Oil Sands Employment Outlook to 2021

In a “most likely” scenario, oil sands employment is projected to expand by 73 per cent over the next decade.

Source: Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada

• Engineers and Geoscience Professionals§ Geologists, petrophysicists, exploitation engineers, mining engineers,

facility engineers, petroleum engineers (drilling and completions, development and production, reservoir and process engineers)

• Technologists and Technicians§ Instrumentation & electrical technicians, instrumentation technologists,

field service technicians

• Field specialists, operators and supervisors§ Operators (thermal, plant, control room), operations (service, field,

construction) supervisors, truck drivers, rig managers and operators

• Trades§ Mechanics, welders, rig technicians

• Business and Operations Support§ Compensation experts, sales and technical professionals, business

development representatives

Jobs in High Demand

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Improving Environmental PerformanceGenerating Economic Benefits

Enabling Responsible Development

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