Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change to Strengthen Household Food Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches (GCP/INT/126/JPN) Tatsuji KOIZUMI Climate, Energy and Tenure Division, FAO
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Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change
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Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change to Strengthen Household Food
Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches(GCP/INT/126/JPN)
Tatsuji KOIZUMI Climate, Energy and Tenure Division, FAO
Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change to Strengthen Household Food Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches (AMICAF)
Total Approved Budget: US$ 2.5 million Project operation: October 2011-October 2014 Participating countries: The Philippines and Peru
(only first two components).
Objectives
To assist developing countries to address climate change assessment and adaptation, to improve food security through a comprehensive framework.
This framework would bridge climate change impact assessment, food Insecurity vulnerability analysis and livelihood adaptation approaches.
AMICAF Framework: Addressing the Linkage Between Climate Change and Food Security
Component1: Impacts of
Climate Change on Agriculture
Component2: Food Insecurity
Vulnerability Analysis
at household level
Component3: Livelihood
Adaptation to Climate Change
Component4: Institutional Analysis and Awareness
Raising
Global Guideline for Implementation in other
countries (Global delivery)
Component 1: Impacts of climate change on
agriculture Nation-wide assessment of projected impacts of climate
change on agriculture at the sub-national scale to inform Component2 vulnerability analysis and Component3 adaptation planning.
MOSAICC – Modeling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change Multiple impact models (Climate downscaling, Crops, Hydrology,
Economy) in one package Software plus training
Newly developed Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Market Model, named PAM (Provincial Agricultural Market) model, is used in addition to MOSAICC’s climate downscaling, crop and hydrology modules.
MOSAICC with Agricultural Market Model
Statistical climatedownscaling models
Historical weatherobservations
Downscaled climate projections
Hydrological modelCrop growth
simulation models
GCM low resolution climate projections
Historical dischargerecords
Water availability for irrigation
Historical water use statistics
Historical yield data
Yield projections
Crop parameters
Soil data
Technology trend scenarios
Soil and land use data
Dam data
Provincial agricultural market impact
Provincial Agricultural Market (PAM) modela partial equilibrium economic modelAgricultural market data
Food insecurity vulnerability analysis
(Component2)
Component 2:Food Insecurity Vulnerability
Analysis Develops an analytical econometrics model with
the best available national household datasets The choice of models heavily depends on data
availability (a variety of socio-economic data at smaller administrative units, preferably geo-referenced)
Characterizing vulnerability and identifying variables associated with highest levels of vulnerability
Current FIVIMS Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping System
in the Philippines
Component 2 will be built upon past work on analysis and mapping of food insecurity by incorporating climate change-related factors.
Current FIVIMS
Climate Change Impacts
AMICAF
Component 3:Livelihood Adaptation to
Climate Change Community–based adaptation making best use of
information from Components 1+2. Identification, validation, field-testing, and
evaluation of good adaptation practices at local context through participatory processes and capacity development.
Field tests: Camarines Sur (Luzon Island) and Surigao del Norte (Mindanao Island)
Component 4:Institutional analysis and
awareness raising Institutional analysis Knowledge management, communication and
capacity development Interactive fora Institutional mechanism and produce guidance
materials Policy analysis
Current Progress (The Philippines (1))
PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services
PhilRice (Philippine Rice Research Institute) and UP-NIGS (The
university of the Philippines Diliman National Institute of Geological Sciences ) is conducting yield and hydrological projections .
NEDA (National Economic and Development Authority) is conducting agricultural market projections.
CBMS (The De La Salle University through the Community-Based
Monitoring System Network Team) is conducting food insecurity vulnerability analysis at household level .
Current Progress (The Philippines (2))
Department of Agriculture-Regional Field Unit 5 and Philrice, Agusan del Norte are conducting filed tests to cope with climate change, collecting good practice options and organizing farmer field schools.
A national consultant is conducting institutional analysis.
Sample of Rainfall Projection Results for 3 modelsfor January-June (2011-2040)
under A1B Scenario in the Philippines
BCM2model
CNCM3model
ECHMA5model
Drought-prone test plots in upland
2012 Wet Season 2013 Dry Season
Saline-tolerant test plots in Caraga
Climate-smart Farmer Field Schools
Typhoon tracking by FFS participants
Fabricating manual rain gauge Varietal evaluation during Field Day
Community hazard assessment
Activities in the Philippines(2012)
Project inception meeting (January 12) Technical workshop for Component1 (February
15) Project steering committee (June 26) Technical workshop for Component 2 (June 27) Training workshop for Component1 (July 17-24,
August 16-17, September 10-14 and September 21)
Activities in the Philippines (2013)
Project steering committee (January 16) Training workshop for Component2 (Feb 11-12) Training workshop for Component1 (PAM) (Feb 14-15) Regional Expert Forum on Climate Change, Agriculture
and Food Security in ASEAN (May 2-3, Bangkok) APEC ATCWG (June 29, Medan, Indonesia) Technical workshop for institutional analysis (July) Final workshop for Component 1 (August) (Plan) Final workshop for Component 2 (December) (Plan)
Activities in the Philippines (2014: Plan)
APEC ATCWG (June, China) Final workshop for Component 3
(September) Final workshop for Component 4
(September) Final workshop for all Components
(September)
Activities in Peru (2013)
Inception workshop (March 7) Technical workshop for Component1 (March 12) Technical workshop for Component2 (July 11-12) Project Steering Committee (July) Training workshop for Component 1 (July-August)
Activities in Peru (2014: Plan)
Final workshop for Component1 (November; Plan)
Final workshop for Component2 (December; Plan)
Final Workshop (May, Plan) APEC ATCWG in 2014 (June)