ASSESSMENT OF THE EXISTING FOOD SECURITY AND VULNERABILITY MAPPING IN THE MENA REGION DURING THE 2007- 2008 FOOD PRICE CRISIS THORIC CEDERSTROM, PHD ;

ASSESSMENT OF THE EXISTING FOOD SECURITY AND VULNERABILITY MAPPING IN THE MENA REGION

DURING THE 2007-2008 FOOD PRICE CRISIS

THORIC CEDERSTROM, PHD ; PATRICIA COSTA, MPP ; ERIC SARRIOT, MD, PHD

11 November 2009

Context

• 2007 and 2008, international prices for food and fuel skyrocketed

• Chronically malnourished people jumped from 850 million in 2005 to 963 million today

• The economic, social and health consequences have only begun to be understood and measured

• The ICF Macro Team conducted two field assessments in Djibouti and Morocco

• Secondary review of overall food Crisis and impact in the MENA region

Global Food Price Fluctuation (FAO Stat)

Study objectives

• What monitoring systems and measurement instruments (FIVIMS) Exist?

• What were the effects on poor and vulnerable populations?

• What has been the governments’ (and other stakeholders) Response?

• What is the role of UNICEF in conjunction with its partners?

Methodology

• Document review (recent studies; grey lit.)– Country studies– Regional review

• In-depth interviews in Morocco and Djibouti– Who / where are the most vulnerable?– How are they identified and located?– How did the recent food crisis affect them?– How did your government / organization respond?

Vulnerability to food insecurity

“Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritional food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO 1996).

“Vulnerability” = exposure to risk/ability to cope

Concepts developed in 1975 at the first World Food Summit in Rome.

What happens when prices rise?

Increase of food prices

Decrease of real income

Increase intake of lower quality cereals and food

Decrease intake of non – staple foods

Increase time spent on income generating

activities

Increase incidence of negative coping

mechanisms (prostitution, child labor)

Decrease in remittances from

urban to rural areas

Decrease micronutrient

Decrease energy and protein intake

Decrease expenditure on Health, education and non-food items

Decrease caretaking

Increase and severity of illnesses

Increase in Protein Energy Malnutrition

Increase in Micronutrient Malnutrition

Increase in Stunting

Decrease intake of staple foods

I - Djibouti

Djibouti: national vulnerabilities to the food

price crisis:• Economic• Environmental• Governmental• Health Services• Human Capital• Regional Unrest• Infrastructure

Health indicators Djibouti

Weight for Age Height for Age Weight for Height

% < - 2 SD

% < - 3 SD

% < - 2 SD

% < - 3 SD

% < - 2 SD

% < - 3 SD

% > + 2 SD

Male 30.8 11.1 34.1 21.7 21.2 8.2 9.5

Female 26.8 9.4 30.7 17.4 20.2 6.7 11.1

Total 28.9 10.3 32.6 19.7 20.7 7.5 10.2

Djibouti: Food security and vulnerability mapping

systems• Nascent stages of developing food

security and vulnerability mapping systems.

• National Food Security Strategy Existent but not operational

• Lack of statistics and data, last census in 1983

• No culture of monitoring and evaluation

Djibouti: Government responses

• Eliminated taxes in five basic food commodities

• Created a Surveillance Brigade that monitored prices at the retail level

• Promoted its agriculture sector• Leased land in Sudan, Ethiopia, and

Malawi• Development of a National Food Security

Strategy

Vulnerable Populations

• Impacts of food crisis obscured by prolonged drought

• Coping mechanisms for seasonal food insecurity employed

• Massive outmigration from rural areas• Reliance on remittances disrupted• Under-nutrition critically high• Food aid – major factor

II - Morocco

Morocco: national vulnerabilities to the food

price crisis

• Economic & Agriculture• Governmental• Health Services• Human Capital• Infrastructure

Health indicators Morocco

1997 2003-04 1997 2003-04 1997 2003-04 1997 2003-04% % % % % % % %

Total 8.9 10.2 24.1 18.1 3.9 9.3 9.2 9.3

Male 9.1 10.4 25.6 19.1 4.3 9.4 9.5 9

Female 8.6 10 22.6 17.1 3.5 9.2 8.8 9.6

(Z < -2) (Z < -2)

Weight for Height Overweight

(Z>+2)

Weight for Age

(Z < -2)

Height for Age

Food security and vulnerability mapping

systems• No formal FIVIMS in place• Some data available but the country has yet to

engage in systematic monitoring and evaluations• HCP in charge of Data collection and poverty

mapping. Data collection for FIVIMS not coordinated

• Other ministries collect some data and conduct sporadic surveys (health, Agriculture, Finance) but questions exist about reliability

• Lack of Food Security Strategy

Impacts of food crisis on vulnerable populations:

children• Majority of poor, food insecure & vulnerable is

rural• Increased numbers of street children, begging

and anti-social behavior• Alarming rates of child labor and abuse (domestic

workers, artisan industry, child prostitution) • High rates of (failed) immigration to Europe• High rates of malnutrition • Increased drop out from education, with long-

term consequences on quality of life.

Government responses (and other mitigating

factors)• Direct government responses:

– Subsidies of primary food commodities, subsidies to wheat producers, and elimination/reduction of tariffs

• Other mitigating factors:– Microfinance– INDH/ONDH– Maroc Plan Vert– Fortification Program

III - MENA

Two Ends of the MENA Spectrum

• Morocco: able to respond with effective mitigating interventions & softened the effects of the price increases on its population (most vulnerable??)

• Djibouti: only able to implement a narrow range of responses to protect its citizens.

• In both cases, though, the price increases were felt at the household level, even among more food secure social strata, forcing consumers to make hard choices on food consumption and other basic livelihood expenditures.

• And also in both cases, the necessary data were not available determine what were the specific impacts on the livelihoods of each country’s food insecure and vulnerable populations.

• Neither country had integrated data-collection systems • Both countries pushed by the situation to come up with strategic plans

to address the longer-term food security issues they face

From the Summary Report

Common Themes Across MENA Region

• Limited food access• Demand pressures driven by urbanized young population• Limited supply of agriculture• Limited water supply• Rural poverty• Low food stability / preparedness/ vulnerability to shocks• Poor information systems• Poor Food Security Monitoring• High rates of stunting, indicating a chronic malnutrition

problem in vulnerable & food insecure population groups

MENA Government Responses

MENA-wide Recommendations to

UNICEF1. Improve the effectiveness of social safety nets for the

region’s most vulnerable populations. 2. Identify and address the underlying causes of malnutrition

in MENA countries that have persistently high rates of malnutrition, especially stunting.

3. Work with communities to promote best choices for optimal nutrition.

4. Protect and Develop Critical Water Resources. 5. Expand child and women protection efforts to include

livelihood initiatives of vulnerable households. 6. Conduct additional studies to better understand local

causal links and develop more effective programs.

Thank You.