Assessment of NDCs and implemented policies - Side Event COP23

Assessment of NDCs and

implemented policies

Side Event COP23

Michiel Schaeffer, Kornelis Blok, Hanna Fekete, Lisa Luna, Paola Parra, Sebastian Sterl (Climate Action tracker)

8 November 2017

www.climateactiontracker.org

Agenda

• Assessment of countries’ NDCs and implementation gap (Hanna Fekete,

NewClimate)

• A closer look at countries

– China (Sebastian Sterl, NewClimate)

– India (Kornelis Blok, Ecofys)

– USA (Lisa Luna, NewClimate)

– EU (Paola Parra, Climate Analytics)

• Respondent

– Manish Shrivastava, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)

• Discussion with the audience

Chair: Michiel Schaeffer, Climate Analytics


The Climate Action Tracker ratescountries’ commitments and actions,

collectively and individually, and tracks real progress

CAT tracks actions under the Paris Agreement

• The Paris Agreement

– Goal of limiting temperature increase

to well below 2oC / 1.5oC

– BUT: no mechanism to ensure

countries act to achieve this goal

– Climate Action Tracker provides an

independent, scientific, ‘real-time’

assessment of progress at country level

IIIIIIGlobal assessment rates

commitments and actionscollectively

Country assessment rates

commitments and actionsindividually

Decarbonisation

work tracks real

progress

© climateactiontracker.org

















Decarbonisation

work tracks real

progress


















Decarbonisation

work tracks real

progress



Rating system


Rating of NDCs


Most large emitters need to

significantly increase ambition of

NDCs to become 1.5 Paris

Agreement compatible

Implementation of NDCs


Of the countries that are 2°C or

1.5°C Paris compatible, half

achieve their NDCs with

implemented policies

Many countries with insufficient

targets do not even achieve those



CAT rates countries’ commitments & actions under

the Paris Agreement













Decarbonisation

work tracks real

progress



Tracking decarbonisation – emission intensity of

energy


Peaking emission intensity

in China and India

For 1.5°C, RE growth in

electricity sector needs to

continue at today‘s pace1)

1) Kuramochi et al., The ten most important

short-term steps to limit warming to 1.5°C

2°C world

average

http://climateactiontracker.org/publications/publication/266/The-ten-most-important-short-term-steps-to-limit-warming-to-1.5C.html

Tracking decarbonisation – per capita energy

demand

Large differences

between countries

World average needs to

remain at today’s levels

or slightly decline

Strong changes in

countries above

average required to

allow for others to

grow.


2°C world

average

China

National emissions projections and decarbonisation indicators under

NDCs and implemented policies

Sebastian Sterl (NewClimate Institute)

8 November 2017


China: pledges and policies


Main measures / targets listed in China’s NDC:

• Reduction of carbon intensity of GDP;

• Share of gas (10%) and non-fossils (20%) in TPES by 2030;

• Peak CO2 emissions by 2030 at the latest.

Main current policy developments:

• Coal use decreased for third year in a row (Nature); capping coal to

maximum 58% of TPES by 2020 (NDRC)

• Deployment of solar PV already outperformed 2020 target in 13th Five-

Year-Plan; other renewables also on the rise (Greenpeace/Unearthed);

• Electric vehicle deployment strongly increasing (Forbes).

http://www.nature.com/news/china-s-coal-use-mould-money-and-russia-s-new-doping-lab-1.21592

https://www.nrdc.org/experts/alvin-lin/understanding-chinas-new-mandatory-58-coal-cap-target

https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2017/08/25/china-raises-solar-power-target/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tychodefeijter/2016/07/22/and-the-boom-goes-on-chinas-electric-car-sales-up-162-in-h1/#6e77b6944438

China’s NDC and current policy pathway

• Emissions projected to plateau in the near future

• NDC targets will be reached with current policies

• NDC pledge not in line with “fair” contribution to limiting global warming

• Carbon intensity target less ambitious than other targets


A closer look at the plateau


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO2 emissions peak under

continued coal abatement

All GHGs

Non-CO2

CO2 emissions

(energy + process)

Current policy projections

Em

issio

ns (

MtC

O2e

/a)

Current policies – CO2 emissions may already have reached peak

levels


Link to CAT decarb database

• Various indicators relevant for tracking of China’s NDC progress

• Interesting because China’s NDC in terms of indicators other than

absolute emission levels (unlike e.g. EU)


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Sh

are

of

no

n-f

ossil

fu

els

(%) Share of non-fossils in TPES

Historical Projected

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Sh

are

of

co

al (%

) Share of coal in TPES

Historical Projected

NDC

target

coal cap

Conclusions


• NDC insufficient: leading to 3-4°C warming by 2100, if all countries were to follow China’s approach

• China’s NDC could be strengthened with e.g. the following:

o Update all targets as current ones seem to be within reach

o Include more quantified peaking commitment and link to peaking of coal, oil use

o Include quantified measures on non-CO2 emissions

o Strengthen or update carbon intensity target

India

National emissions projections and

decarbonisation indicators under NDCs

and implemented policies

Kornelis Blok (Ecofys)

8 November 2017


India’s NDC is rated “2o C compatible” and India is

on track to (over)achieve its NDC


• Current policies

– Will achieve 2030 non-fossil capacity target

– Will overachieve emissions intensity target

• Planned policies (“Draft Electricity Plan”)

– 40% non-fossil capacity target achieved well before 2022 instead of 2030.

– Moving closer to the CAT’s “1.5oC Paris Agreement compatible” rating

India has set targets to reduce emissions in the

transport and power sectors


• Draft Electricity Plan

– Not only foresees fast deployment of wind and solar energy but also assumes energy

conservation measures which include:

• Demand Side Management (DSM)

• Perform, Achieve and Trade Scheme (PAT)

• Energy Conservation Building Code,

• etc.

• Renewables capacity (excl. Hydro)

• Transport policies

– National Electric Mission Mobility Plan (NEMMP) 2020 include targets to deploy 6–7 million

hybrid/electric vehicles per year by 2020.

• This is ~30% of the total vehicles deployed in 2016–17 (22 million units)

– Indian Power Minister Piyush Goyal made an announcement that India aims to phase out

sales of petrol or diesel cars by 2030

Year Capacity (GW)

2014 34

2030 (Current policies) 195–308

2030 (Planned policies) 321

India has targets for renewable electricity but also

supports development of domestic coal


• RE generation share

• NITI Aayog’s (2017)

recommendations

– Increase domestic fossil fuel

activities to enhance energy

security

Year Share

%

2014 15

2030 (Current policies) 20–26

2030 (Planned policies) 37

USA

National emissions projections and

decarbonisation indicators under NDCs

and implemented policies

Lisa Luna (NewClimate Institute)

8 November 2017


USA – Critically Insufficient




March

• Obama Administration Climate Action Plan rescinded

• US Mid-Century Strategy disappeared from government

websites



June

• Pres. Trump announced intent to withdraw from Paris Agreement



October

• Environmental Protection Agency proposed repeal of the Clean

Power Plan

Electricity emissions intensity

www.climateactiontracker.orgData sources: IEA, EIA

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Ele

ctri

city

em

issi

on

sin

ten

sity

gCO

2/kW

h

Historical Projected w/o CPP Projected w/ CPP

European Union

National emissions projections and decarbonisation indicators under

NDCs and implemented policies

Paola Yanguas-Parra (Climate Analytics)

8 November 2017


European Union – Insufficient


NDC insufficient: leading to 2-3°C warming by 2100, if all countries were to follow the EU’s approach. Policies in line with NDC but much stronger emissions

reductions needed to achieve long-term target

European Union – Insufficient


How to increase the ambition of EU´s NDC and put policies on track to long-term target?

EU – Emissions intensity of electricity generation


-36% reduction below 1990 and -21% below 2000

in 2014

-36% reduction below 2014 in 2030

EU – coal share


-38%decrease 1990- 2014

EU – coal share member states


For some members states (e.g. Germany), coal still represents a third of their energy mix.

EU – coal power generation

25% of gross electricity generation

17% of total GHG

emissions

760Mt CO2 yearly

Coal share is much higher in electricity mix, with Germany and Poland concentrating 50% of the installed capacity.

293 coal power plants,, with combined installed

capacity of 153 GW.

Source: Climate Analytics (2016). Implications of the Paris Agreement for Coal Use in the Power Sector

http://climateanalytics.org/publications/2016/implications-of-the-paris-agreement-for-coal-use-in-the-power-sector.html

EU – coal phase-out plans

Coal needs to be phased out by 2030 in the EU to be consistent with the Paris Agreement.

Many member states are already implementing coal phase-out by this year and civil society is mobilizing to increase ambition.

Sources: Climate Analytics (2016). Implications of the Paris Agreement for Coal Use in the Power Sector

Beyond Coal (2017). https://beyond-coal.eu/

Finland:2030

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania:No coal

UK:2025

France:2023

NL:2030

Italy:2025

Portugal:2030

Berlin:2030

Munich:2020

BL:2016

Sweden:2022

Norway:No coal

http://climateanalytics.org/publications/2016/implications-of-the-paris-agreement-for-coal-use-in-the-power-sector.html

Conclusions


• NDC insufficient: leading to 2-3°C warming by 2100, if all countries were to follow the EU’s approach

• How to enhance the level of ambition of the EU NDC?

o Coal needs to be phased out by 2030

o Renewables deployment

o Energy sector fully decarbonised by 2050

o Net zero emissions in the second half of the century

THANK YOU

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