Concluding Regional Workshop on Concluding Regional Workshop on Methodologies to Assess Socio-Economic Methodologies to Assess Socio-Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters, 19-21 Impacts of Natural Disasters, 19-21 October, 2005 October, 2005 Assessment of Drought Impact Assessment of Drought Impact in in Balochistan, Pakistan: Case Balochistan, Pakistan: Case Study Study Pakistan Council of Research in Water Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources Resources Engr. Muhammad Azam Engr. Muhammad Azam Director Director
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Assessment of Drought Impact in Balochistan, Pakistan: Case Study
Concluding Regional Workshop on Methodologies to Assess Socio-Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters, 19-21 October, 2005. Assessment of Drought Impact in Balochistan, Pakistan: Case Study. Engr. Muhammad Azam Director. Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Concluding Regional Workshop on Concluding Regional Workshop on Methodologies to Assess Socio-Economic Methodologies to Assess Socio-Economic
Impacts of Natural Disasters, 19-21 October, Impacts of Natural Disasters, 19-21 October, 20052005
Assessment of Drought Impact Assessment of Drought Impact
in in Balochistan, Pakistan: Case StudyBalochistan, Pakistan: Case Study
Pakistan Council of Research in Water ResourcesPakistan Council of Research in Water Resources
Engr. Muhammad AzamEngr. Muhammad AzamDirectorDirector
Part-I: Drought in BalochistanPart-I: Drought in Balochistan
Part-II: Main Result of the Case StudyPart-II: Main Result of the Case Study
% of Total% of Total 51.4951.49 36.8736.87 5.455.45 6.196.19 100100
Province-Wise Aridity in PakistanProvince-Wise Aridity in Pakistan
Present Land-Use Statistics
1. Area not available for cultivation (58.6%)2. Forest (5%)3. Culturable waste (21.1%)
4. Fallow (6.5%)5. Net sown
20.34601.87508.715
02.25701.528
Total Geographical Area 34.720
Source: Agriculture Statistics of Balochistan (1996-97)
S.No. Description Area (MHA)
Total No. of Districts = 26
ZHOB
QILLA SAIFULLAH
LORALAI
KALAT
SIBI
KHUZDAR
CHAGAI
KHARAN
PANJGUR
TURBAT
ARABIAN SEA
LASBELA
ZIARAT
MASTUNG
QUETTA
AWARAN
Jiwani
KOHLU
PISHINK.ABDULLAH
OrmaraPasni
NASIRABAD
GAWADAR
KACHHI
DERABUGTI
R IV E R B A S IN S O F B A L O C H IS T A N
Hamun-e-Lora
Hamun-e-Mashkhel
Rakhshan River
Dasht River
Gwadar Ormara
Hingol River
Pishin Lora
Kachhi Plain
Hingol River
Nari River
Zhob River
Kand River
Kadanai River
Porali River
Area in Square miles
1. Zhob River Basin (9668.16)2. Nari River Baisn (9212.60)3. P ishin River Basin (6647.46)4. K achhi P lain Basin (13236.56)5. Hamun-e-Lora (2877.96)6. Hamun-e-Mashkhel (12128.29)7. Mula River Basin (3271.85)8. Gaj River Basin (2317.28)9. Rakhshan River Basin (897.1)10. Hingol River Basin (16951.75)11. Dasht River Basin (10480.59)12. Porali River Basin (9682.91)13. Gwadar Ormara Basin (19047.25)14. Misc: (17692.20)
Livestock Population in BalochistanLivestock Population in Balochistan
Crop Production Systems in BalochistanCrop Production Systems in Balochistan
Karez IrrigationKarez Irrigation
Tap and convey groundwater by gravity in open channels Tap and convey groundwater by gravity in open channels or underground tunnels to command areas.or underground tunnels to command areas.
Sailaba IrrigationSailaba Irrigation
Diversion and Spreading of Intermittent Flow of Hill Torrents
Khushkaba IrrigationKhushkaba Irrigation
Crops at the mercy of rain and sheet flow from mountain Crops at the mercy of rain and sheet flow from mountain during rainstorms by constructing low dykes across flow during rainstorms by constructing low dykes across flow paths in piedmont plains.paths in piedmont plains.
DroughtDrought
Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather which persists Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather which persists
long enough to produce a serious hydrologic imbalancelong enough to produce a serious hydrologic imbalance
Types of DroughtTypes of Drought
Slight: When the rains are 50% below normal during a particular crop season
Mild: When the rains continue to be 50% below normal for the two crop seasons
Moderate: When the rains are 50% below normal and continue for the three consecutive crop seasons
Severe: When the below normal rain persists, continues and prolongs up to four crop seasons
3)3) Identified key parameters and indicators Identified key parameters and indicators according to the objectivesaccording to the objectives
4)4) Collected damaged data from the relevant Govt. Collected damaged data from the relevant Govt. departments, NGOs, individuals, etc.departments, NGOs, individuals, etc.
5)5) Conducted interviews of all stake holdersConducted interviews of all stake holders
6)6) Analyzed the collected data/informationAnalyzed the collected data/information
Adopted ApproachAdopted Approach for Drought Impact for Drought Impact
AssessmentAssessment
Accessibility of the study areaAccessibility of the study area Socio economic importance of the areaSocio economic importance of the area Visible drought effect due to recorded Visible drought effect due to recorded
reduced rainfallreduced rainfall
Continuous drop in water tables, river flows Continuous drop in water tables, river flows and surface reservoirsand surface reservoirs
Reasonable data/information available for Reasonable data/information available for analysis (pre and post drought period)analysis (pre and post drought period)
Selected Study Area: Pishin LoraSelected Study Area: Pishin Lora BasinBasin
AdoptedAdopted Criteria for Selection of Criteria for Selection of
Annual Groundwater Potential in River BasinsAnnual Groundwater Potential in River Basins
Northern highland region of BalochistanNorthern highland region of Balochistan
Climate: cold winters and mild summerClimate: cold winters and mild summer
Annual precipitation: 150 to 200 mmAnnual precipitation: 150 to 200 mm
Landscape characterized by hill torrents, Landscape characterized by hill torrents, mountain ranges, piedmont plains and alluvial mountain ranges, piedmont plains and alluvial fansfans
Soils: calcareous, derived from limestone, Soils: calcareous, derived from limestone, sandstones and sedimentary rocks, low in organic sandstones and sedimentary rocks, low in organic mattermatter
Main economy: livestock and agricultureMain economy: livestock and agriculture
Pishin Lora BasinPishin Lora Basin
S.#S.# Sub basinSub basin Area (kmArea (km22)) Main Main Cities/TownsCities/Towns
11 PishinPishin 6,8186,818 Quetta*Quetta*
Pishin*Pishin*
Killa Abdullah*Killa Abdullah*
MastungMastung
KuchlaghKuchlagh
KalatKalat
KolpurKolpur
22 MangocharMangochar 664664
33 QuettaQuetta 1,7801,780
44 MastungMastung 785785
55 KalatKalat 2,2202,220
66 KapotoKapoto 167167
77 Sardar KhelSardar Khel 491491
88 KolpurKolpur 111111
99 KuchlaghKuchlagh 1,7341,734
1010 ShirinabShirinab 1,3121,312
1111 Patki ShahnawazPatki Shahnawaz 988988
TotalTotal 17,07017,070
Quetta, Killa Abdullah and Pishin
Sub-basins of Pishin-LoraSub-basins of Pishin-Lora
Questionnaire development and testingQuestionnaire development and testing
Questionnaire parameters include land Questionnaire parameters include land holding, crops/orchards, livestock, holding, crops/orchards, livestock, living habits, diet, irrigation sources, living habits, diet, irrigation sources, market prices of items (pre & post market prices of items (pre & post drought)drought)
Sample size in each district: 150Sample size in each district: 150
Interviews of StakeholdersInterviews of Stakeholders
Parameter Quetta Pishin Kila Abdullah
Total
Sheep/goat before drought (No.)
106,942 440,637 285,519 833,098
Perished during drought period (No.)
96,248 370,135 254,112 720,495
Perished (%) 90 84 89 88
Total Losses* (Rs. in million)
202 777 534 1513
•Present average market price per head: Rs. 2100/-
Direct Losses to Sheet/GoatDirect Losses to Sheet/Goat
Parameter Quetta Pishin Kila Abdullah
Total
Sheep/goat before drought (No.)
106,942 440,637 285,519 833,098
Sale during drought period (No.)
96,248 370,135 254,112 720,495
Total Losses* (Rs. in million)
144 555 381 1081
Average sale loss: Rs. 1500/-
Indirect Losses to Sheet/Goat Indirect Losses to Sheet/Goat
• Loss of two completely lost breeding seasons (2001 & 2002) because of reduced conception due to poor feed and health
• Abortion in pregnant animals due to poor feed and health
• Kid mortality occurred due to shortage of milk with mothers