ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT STATUS OF NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM

ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT STATUS OF NATIONAL STATISTICAL

SYSTEM

Prof. Ben Kiregyera

NSDS Workshop,

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

10 August 2005

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What is strategic planning about?

1. WHERE ARE WE NOW?

Current situation

1. WHERE ARE WE NOW?

Current situation

2. WHERE DO WE WANT TO

BE?

Mission/vision

2. WHERE DO WE WANT TO

BE?

Mission/vision

3. HOW DO WE GET THERE?

Strategies/Actions

3. HOW DO WE GET THERE?

Strategies/Actions

4. HOW DO WE KNOW WE HAVE ARRIVED & HOW DO WE STAY THERE?

Monitoring/evaluation/

Sustainability

4. HOW DO WE KNOW WE HAVE ARRIVED & HOW DO WE STAY THERE?

Monitoring/evaluation/

Sustainability

Statistical

capacity

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ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT STATUS OF ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT STATUS OF NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEMSNATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEMS

DIAG

NOSIS

DIAG

NOSIS

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I. WHAT IS A NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM (NSS)?

NSS

Arrangements for production,

and use of statistics

management

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II. WHY ASSESS THE NSS?

a strong strategy is based on assessment of current

situation (context map)

in most cases not developing NSDS from scratch

most countries, will exist NSS

existing initiatives for improving national statistics

(e.g. GDDS)

been various assessments of NSSs using DQAF, etc.

Purpose of NSDS will be to build on & extend (leverage from) existing approaches & initiatives to improve existing

NSS

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III. BENCHMARK ASSESSMENT OF NSS

1st step in development of NSDS

Assessment should :

be in-depth and not cursory; realistic, objective,

detached and critical

be benchmarked against international standards, frameworks & best practices

lead to understanding of:

adequacy of outputs & services organization, management &

infrastructure of NSS

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Characteristics of an effective NSS

o UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics

NSS should comply with these for public to have trust in official statistics

10 Principles

• professional independence• relevance• credibility• respondent relations

o Legal framework • fundamental pre-requisite for effective NSS• comprehensive checklist (UN, World Bank, IMF,

others)

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o Shared direction

• strategic goals and objectives

o Stakeholder-driven and user-focused

• national data needs

• sub-regional data needs (SADC, ECOWAS, COMESA)

• International data needs e.g. for MDG monitoring

o Versatile (able to quickly respond to changing demand for

data)

o Effectively led and coordinated

• well-resourced & well-structured NSO with technical

expertise, organizational systems and capacity to lead

and coordinate NSS

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Assessment of NSS should lead to understanding of:

user requirements for statistical data users’ current and perceived future needs adequacy of existing statistics gaps in existing and planned data priorities for data capacity to use data

availability of statistics sources availability and access - publication and dissemination policies

linkages and coordination arrangements – user-producer,

producer-producer, producer-researcher/analyst, etc.

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Coordination and collaboration

• Why coordinate, collaborate and network?

mutual reinforcement achieve synergy avoid working at cross-purpose and destructive rivalries avoid production of conflicting data

• Types of coordination

inter-institutional or horizontal coordination (break the “silo mentality”) technical coordination (standardization of

concepts, definitions, classifications, etc) donor coordination

Generally Weak

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ON-GOING DATA USER-PRODUCER DIALOGUE

• required data• when required• how required - frequency - timing - form

• available data• how data are collected• data quality• constraints• future plans

USERS PRODUCERS

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legal and institutional framework in which data are produced

organizational aspects including management of NSS human resource policies

strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats

quality of statistics in terms of:

Integrity

independence of statistical operations (provided in Act) professional and ethical standards (confidentiality, scientific objectivity, professional competencies) transparency about statistical processes

DQAF

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Methodological soundness: sub-regional, regional and international standards

- broad standards followed e.g. Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics, GDDS, International Standard Industrial Classification - subject-specific standards and methodologies followed e.g. System of National Accounts, FAO guidelines, ILO guidelines, UNESCO guidelines, etc.

Accuracy and reliability

- incompleteness data/many data gaps - validation of administrative data - response rates - spatial coherence in reporting - sampling error rates

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Serviceability: user consultation, periodicity of statistical

outputs, timeliness of statistical outputs

User consultations - regular and continuing or insufficient, ad hoc, far between?

- are user needs sufficiently analyzed, collated and

prioritized?

- are there serious data gaps?

periodicity of outputs

- monthly, quarterly, annually

- Income and Expenditure Survey (3-5 years)

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Accessibility: effectiveness of dissemination, updated metadata

dissemination and access statistics have extrinsic value which lies in their power to inform processes e.g. planning, monitoring therefore, statistics have no value unless they:

• reach those who need them• are easily understood• are actually used

well-defined and forward-looking well-defined and forward-looking dissemination policydissemination policy based on GDDS principles:based on GDDS principles:

advance publication of advance publication of release calendarrelease calendar simultaneous release of datasimultaneous release of data – principle of– principle of equal access to dataequal access to data providing providing metadatametadata - information about the data- information about the data specific statistical specific statistical products to well-targeted usersproducts to well-targeted users use use different dissemination mediadifferent dissemination media ( (reports, reports, electronic e.g. CDs, web siteelectronic e.g. CDs, web site) – e-dissemination) – e-dissemination

Help-Desk (CBS)Help-Desk (CBS)

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Timeliness of statistical outputs in Namibia

Statistical Output

Frequency Data last collected

Reporting

Bank of Namibia

Financial

reports

Quarterly

Annual

Jan-March

Jan-Dec

June

March

CBS

Consumer Prices

Stat. Abstract

Monthly

Annual

May June

1998

Min. of Labour

Informal Sector

Stat. Bulletin

7 years

Annual

2001 2004

1997

Min. of Health

Health Inform. Report

Annual 2003 1997

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Main sources of data

Administrative records (line Ministries)

• Are there Management Information Systems (MISs)

• Are Statistical Bulletins produced and in time?

• Are there databases

• Constraints to data development human capacity (understaffing, and/or limited

technical skills, competences) material resources

financial resources

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Surveys (current data) household-based surveys

• Household Income & Expenditure Survey (periodicity)• Annual Agricultural Survey• Labour Force Survey (periodicity)• Demographic and Health Survey (between censuses)• are these surveys coordinated/integrated?

establishment-based surveys• frequency of establishment surveys• business registers• are these surveys coordinated/integrated?

other surveys• Consumer Price Survey

major constraint: data disaggregation, sampling errors

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Censuses main sources of benchmark data held after 10 years Population and Housing Census Agricultural Census Economic Census Major constraints: cost, enormity of exercise

Assessments

Qualitative assessmentsQualitative assessments ( (poverty related issuespoverty related issues)) ((focus group discussionsfocus group discussions) )

Supplement quantitative informationSupplement quantitative information

ChallengesChallenges: a) coordinate systems to produce : a) coordinate systems to produce complementary data/informationcomplementary data/information b) combine quantitative and qualitative b) combine quantitative and qualitative data data (triangulation)(triangulation)

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how data are produced methods and procedures use of regional & international standards constraints and problems

how data are managed i.e. processed, analyzed and archived

IT policies & strategies databases and data warehouses

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Evolutionary Levels

Re volutionary Levels

High Low

Business Scope Redefinition

Business Network Redesign

Business Process Redesign

Internal Integration

Localized Exploitationn Low

High

Degree of potential benefits

Five Levels of IT-induced business transformation-

Deg

ree

of

Bu

sin

ess

Tra

nsf

orm

atio

nBusiness transformation using IT

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ICT Infrastructure

do most institutions have adequate computers

(numbers, right power, how old are they, etc)? are there Local Area Networks (LANs) in place in

many institutions? are ICT resources optimally utilized? has ICT improved communication &

information sharing? status of Internet access & web sites are there IT policies and standards in NSS? is GIS capability developed? are there databases? levels of IT application

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PlanningPlanning

Implementation

Implementation

ProcessingProcessing

AnalysisAnalysis/Interpretation/Interpretation

ReportingReporting

Dissemination

Dissemination

Feedbac

k

Data cycleData cycle

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End users: Policy makers Decision makers

End users: Policy makers Decision makers

Data Producers

Data Producers

Data Suppliers

Data Suppliers

data (raw materials from which inform. obtained)

Data Processing &Primary Analysis

Information

Intermediate users: Researchers Subject-matter Specialists

Intermediate users: Researchers Subject-matter Specialists

Assessment of user needs

Packaging/CommunicationPackaging/Communication

Detailed/Detailed/

Policy-Policy-relatedrelated

analysisanalysis

Add value to data

Data versus InformationData versus Information

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Data, Information, Knowledge

Data

Information

Knowledge

Informed decisions

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Main issues in data analysis and reportingMain issues in data analysis and reporting

data producers do basic analysis data producers do basic analysis (generally poorly, (generally poorly, water-is-wet types of analysis)

detailed data analysis is usually not donedetailed data analysis is usually not done no customized/targeted, value-added statistical products and services

(e.g. special reports on gender, nutrition, etc) shortage of analytical skills at NSOs

reporting usually poorly done lack of analytical skills lack of soft skills (communication, etc) inadequate partnerships with subject-matter

specialists and analysts

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how statistics are disseminated and used

dissemination policies

metadata

data use

current capacity of the NSS

Demand side capacity to articulate requirements capacity to effectively use data for policy and decision-making

Supply side infrastructure (physical, statistical & ICT) human and financial resources dissemination policies and strategies

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IV. METHODOLOGY

Do document review to appreciate: government policy environment (PRS, etc) sub-regional & international development agenda (MDGs, etc)

Review international standards and frameworksOther country experiencesInterview key data users

Government ministries, politicians, Public sector (e.g. Central Bank, parastatals) Private sector (Chamber of Commerce and/or Industry), Civil society (NGOs, news media) Research & Training institutions (Research Centres, Universities) Donors and international organizations

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Information from key data users

What they do

How they use statistics in their operations

Availability of statistics and how they may have

been constrained by lack of data

Their ability to effectively use data

Their assessment of existing data – criteria

Their relationship with main data producers & their

role in contributing to the development of the NSS

Their current & future statistical needs & priorities

How they think their needs can best be met within

the context of the NSDS

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how do you identify key users and collect data from them?

starting point should be NSO mailing list

divide users into main user groups

select some manageable users from each group

visit users, organize small group discussions, etc.

having identified users and their needs, proceed to assess

capacity to meet their needs using PARIS21 Statistical Capacity Building Indicators (SCBIs)

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interview key data producers mainly in NSO, Central Bank line ministries and the private sector to establish:

inventory of their capacities to meet user needs what data they produce how they produce data (legal and institutional

framework, human resources, office infrastructure,

equipment, communications and transport, methods and

procedures, systems) main constraints and problems they face how they co-ordinate with data users and other data

producers how they process, analyse, store data and disseminate

statistical information existence of databases.

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Interviews at NSO

management professional staff administrative staff junior staff

Focus/small group discussions (NSO staff and

key stakeholders) to: articulate an ideal profile for the NSO, carry out SWOT analysis determine resource requirements in terms of

personnel, office infrastructure, equipment,

communications and transport, and budgets develop a prioritized and costed work and capacity

building programme identify technical assistance that may be required

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IV. INSTRUMENTS FOR COLLECTING INFORMATION

Examples

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Thank YouThank You