Assessing vulnerability to wildfire of an agroforestry landscape mosaic of Sierra de Gata, southwestern Spain. · Bertomeu Manuel 1 · Corbacho Javier 2 · Pulido Fernando 1 · Navalpotro Javier 2 · Palomo Gonzalo 2 · Giménez Juan Carlos 1 · Moreno Gerardo 1 . 1 INDEHESA, Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal y del Medio Natural, Centro Universitario de Plasencia, Universidad de Extremadura. Avda. Virgen del Puerto 2, 10600 Plasencia, Cáceres, Spain. 2 MOSAICO-Extremadura, Centro Universitario de Plasencia, Universidad de Extremadura. Avda. Virgen del Puerto 2, 10600 Plasencia, Cáceres, Spain. Authors: Wildfires have increasingly become a threat to the Mediterranean mountain forests of southern Europe. Extensive afforestation with flammable pine species, abandonment of traditional land management practices, and longer and more intense droughts due to climate change result in larger and more frequent and intense forest fires. Mosaic landscapes consisting of a mix of different land cover and use type are considered to be less vulnerable than forests to wildfire. Interspersed patches of crops, pastures, and grazed shrubs and forests break-up the continuity of hazardous fuels across the landscape, and provide safer zones from which fires can be suppressed (figures 1 and 2). Mosaico-Extremadura is a project that aims to restore an agroforestry mosaic landscape in Sierra de Gata, a mountainous area in southwestern Spain prone to anthropogenic fires. A multidisciplinary team of technicians facilitate farmer planning and implementation of agricultural and forestry livelihood interventions (e.g., tree farming; grazing management, resin tapping), training, and negotiation and coordination with local government and forestry authorities. The project rests on the idea that agricultural interventions at strategic locations within forests and at the forest-agriculture interface will function as effective, and productive firebreaks. However, whether these interventions will nudge the current landscape towards a more fire resilient one remains uncertain. Introduction To assess the vulnerability to fire of the hypothetical landscape mosaic that would result if all interventions proposed by farmers involved in the Mosaico project were implemented. Objetive Next steps Table 1. Estimated fire risk of the landscape previous to project intervention. Table 2. Potential impact of project interventions on reducing fire risk. 1. To conduct a retrospective sensitivity assessment 2. To conduct fire simulations and assessments of exposure to wildfire, sensitivity and resilience of the hypothetical landscape under different project success scenarios and after project completion. References: Vaillant, et al., 2016, CurrForestryRep, 201–213, DOI 10.1007/s40725-016-0040-1 Results Sierra de Gata is a mountainous area in southwestern Spain that extends over 150,000 ha, of which 70,000 ha are forests of Pinus Pinaster. It comprises a population of 22,728 in 20 villages. Agricultural production include olive, chestnut and fruit trees and goat and sheep grazing in an area of 30.000 ha. Forests provide timber, resin, NTFPs (mushrooms) and recreation. The vulnerability assessment framework (VAF) proposed by Vaillant et al. (2016) is used. VAF’s components, exposure, sensitivity, and resilience, will be measured first in a retrospective assessment of landscape vulnerability, followed by a predictive, comparative assessment under different scenarios of project success, including the ‘business as usual’ (without project). GIS analysis includes: • Spatial-temporal characterization of the occurrence of fires according to the national database (EGIF) of the Ministry of the Environment. • The development of variables dependent on fire risk (altitude, slope, vegetation, anthropic elements and fuel models). • Reclassification of variables according to risk through a range of values. • Map algebra: a combination of the different variables generated with the Mosaico project initiatives. Methods and materials Study area Wildfires 2.298 37.500 Burnt area (ha.) Very low / Null Low Medium High Very high Altitude index Very low / Null Low Medium High Slope index Low Medium High Fuel models index Low Medium High Vegetation index Low Medium High Valverde del fresno Eljas San Martón de Trevejo Villamiel Hoyos Villasbuenas de Gata Perales del Puerto Gata Cilleros Acebo Gata Cadalso Torre de Don Miguel Hernán-Pérez Santibáñez el Alto Villanueva de la Sierra Cadalso Descargamaría Robledillo de Gata Pinofranqueado Caminomorisco La Pesga Casar de Palomero Torrecilla de los Ángeles Nuñomoral Casares de las Hurdes Ladrillar Legend Simbology Municipalities Fire perimeter < 1 has. 1 - 25 has. 25 - 50 has. 50 - 100 has. 100 - 200 has. 200 - 300 has.a Assessment framework Results Figures 1 and 2. Productive firebreaks in a forest landscape: unburnt olive and chestnut orchards surrounded by a Pinus pinaster forest destroyed by fire. Sierra de Gata, Cáceres Cilleros Gata Valverde del Fresno Caminomorisco Pinofranqueado Acebo Villamiel Nuñomoral Eljas Ladrillar Santibáñez el Alto Gata Descargamaría Hernán-Pérez Hoyos Villasbuenas de Gata La Pesga Perales del Puerto Villanueva de la Sierra Casar de Palomero Torrecilla de los Ángeles Robledillo de Gata Casares de las Hurdes Torre de Don Miguel Cadalso San Martín de Trevejo Cadalso Cadalso 0 6 12 3 Kilome Riesgo de incendio en iniciativas mosaico Muy Bajo Bajo Medio Alto Muy Alto Mapa de Riesgo de Incendio en propuestas de Iniciativas Mosaico Very low / Null Low Medium High Very High 1,27% 42,51% 26,24% 20,27% 9,72% 0,05% 21,76% 36,53% 30,22% 11,43% Wildfire occurrence and extent during the period 2000-2015: Very low / Null Low Medium High Very High Potential impact of project interventions on reducing fire risk 1,27% 54,22% 20,76% 15,73% 8,01% Cilleros Gata Valverde del Fresno Caminomorisco Pinofranqueado Acebo Villamiel Nuñomoral Eljas Ladrillar Santibáñez el Alto Gata Descargamaría Hernán-Pérez Hoyos Villasbuenas de Gata La Pesga Perales del Puerto Villanueva de la Sierra Casar de Palomero Torrecilla de los Ángeles Robledillo de Gata Casares de las Hurdes Torre de Don Miguel Cadalso San Martín de Trevejo Cadalso Cadalso 0 6 12 3 Kilometros clip_riesgo_iniciativas Muy Bajo Bajo Medio Alto Muy Alto Mapa de Riesgo de Incendio en propuestas de Iniciativas Mosaico Map 4. Map 3. Map 2. Fire risk in proposed project areas Estimated fire risk of the landscape previous to project intervention Very Low Low Medium High Very High 2.073,36 69.246,72 42.741,74 33.014,81 15.828,81 Values Area (has.) Very Low Low Medium High Very High = + 11,71 -5,48 -4,54 -1,72 Values Area (%)