Transformation of the British GSHP market David Matthews, Chief Executive Ground Source Heat Pump Association 22 nd October 2012
Jan 13, 2016
Transformation of the British GSHP market
David Matthews, Chief ExecutiveGround Source Heat Pump Association
22nd October 2012
Assessing the role of ground source heating & cooling as one of the 8 key renewables techsSolar thermal – HW in summer.
mCHP – it only saves a bit of carbon. Fuel cell might be a very interesting proposition.
Biomass – rural “high enthalpy” applications.
ASHP – more expensive and only small carbon saving as compared to gas. Noise issues.
Continue with fossil fuels – they run out!
GSHP – low cost & carbon. Needs some space.
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
UK
Den
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k
Irel
and
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y Italy
Net
herla
nds
EU
Spa
in
Gre
ece
Bel
gium
Aus
tria
Por
tuga
l
Cyp
rus
Luxe
mbo
urg Mal
ta
Fin
land
Sw
eden
Slo
veni
a
Hun
gary
Lith
uani
a
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Latv
ia
Est
onia
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Bul
garia
Rom
ania
Per
cen
tag
e p
oin
tsin
crea
se
EU Member States
Increase in percentage share of total final consumption of energy from renewable sources
12% Renewable Heat; 29% large scale electricity,
2% Small Scale electricity, 10% transport
EU Renew able Energy Policy (20:20:20) - D irective 2009/28/EC… on the prom otion of the use of energy from renew able sources
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
Austria
Be lg ium
Bulgaria
C yprus
C zech Repub lic
D enmark
E ston ia
F in land
F rance
Germany
Greece
H ungary
Ireland
Italy
La tvia
L ithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
N etherla
nds
Po land
Portuga l
R omania
S lovakia
S loven ia
Spain
Sweden
U nited K
ingdom
So u r ce : Eu r A ct iv Ne tw o r k w w w .e u r activ.co m /, Dir e ct ive 2009/28/EC
Sh
are
of
ren
ew
ab
les
(%
)
Share of renewables (%) in 2005
Share of renewables (%) required by 2020
Country Number installed Date started
Austria 23 000
Canada 36 000
Germany 40 000 1996
Sweden 200 000 1980
Switzerland 25 000 1980
UK 3 000
USA 600 000 1996
• One in 4 to 5 of Swedish homes use a GSHP & Mature markets have codes of practice, standards & training
UK 2007
UK HP experience
Advanced Markets:
market supported by codes of practice,
standards and training
Medium sized markets:
in process of transformation Advanced
Low penetration markets e.g. UK:
need considerable intervention
UK today
ASHP vs GSHP 08 to 10
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2008 2009 2010
Un
its GSHP
ASHP
UK today
Commercial HP Sales 09 to 11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr
2009 2010 2011
Un
its
ASHP Commercial (20.01-30kW)
ASHP Commercial (>30kW)
GSHP Commercial (20.01-30kW)
GSHP Commercial (>30kW)
UK today
Domestic HP Sales 09 to 11
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr
2009 2010 2011
Un
its
ASHP Small domestic (<7kW)
ASHP Small domestic (7-10kW)
ASHP Large domestic (10.01-15kW)
ASHP Large domestic (15.01-20kW)
Small domestic (<7kW)
Small domestic (7-10kW)
Large domestic (10.01-15kW)
Large domestic (15.01-20kW)
Domestic Carbon Emissions 2003
Cooking5%
Lights & Appliances
22%
Water Heating
20%
Space Heating
53%
Cooking
Lights &Appliances
Water Heating
Space Heating
74%
3%
11%
9%1%2%
Heating and hot water
Fans, pumps, controls
Lighting
Office equipment
Catering
Other electricity
CommercialCommercial
Office Type 1: Source Carbon Trust & http://www.cibse.org/pdfs/ECG019.pdf
Good Policy Framework
Financial Schemes
Regulation Schemes
Quality Scheme
Supported by flanking measures of:
Public Awareness
Training
RHI Spend 2011/15
Good Policy Framework
Financial Schemes
Regulation Schemes
Quality Scheme
Supported by flanking measures of:
Public Awareness EST? Geo.power?
Training SSC, Awarding Bodies, Geotrainet, IGSHPA, Design, Install, Specify
RHI Spend 2011/15
Within £864m – fixed annual envelope
(nominal):
Actual Spend New Spend
2011/12:£56m £56m
2012/13: £133m £77m
2013/14: £251m £174m
2014/15: £424m £250m
Total £864m
RHI Spend 2011/15
The Renewable Heat Incentive-implications for non-domestic ground source installations
Phase 1: 3 or 4.3 p/kWh (100 kWth)over 20 years Metered
Phase 2: 12.5 to 17.3 p/kWh (MCS) over 7 yearsDeemed
The Renewable Heat Incentive-implications for non-domestic ground source installations
Phase 1: 3 or 4.3 p/kWh (100 kWth)over 20 years Metered
Phase 2: 12.5 to 17.3 p/kWh (MCS) over 7 yearsDeemed
The European perspective
Renewable Heating Action Plan for Europe – barriers:
large upfront investment cost
return on investment cost not including fuel inflation
owner – tenant dilemma i.e. rented accommodation
chicken and egg – low awareness, low demand etc.
RES – H still considered “exotic”
lack of critical mass
Owner – tenant dilemma i.e. rented accommodation
Social housing
Private rented housing
Private mass-market housing
Private upmarket housing
How do we engage the middle 2 sectors?
Community schemes?
SEA / RENUE Report on“Barriers to installing DSHW systems”:• older, home owners from higher status. (not income)
• advertise in local press backed by local authority
• visiting fairs etc. is not so important
• effective marketing – saving money, future proofing, environmental reasons to target groups
• increase emotional involvement of client with installation to build momentum
• currently solar grant needs to be £1000 to £1500 to remove cost barrier e.g. £4000 to £6000 GSHP
To alleviate cost issues (the major barrier):
• arrange low-interest loans
• install when heating system being refurbished
• group installations for economies of scale
• target new build
Train installers in customer care, disseminate info in Energy Efficiency Advice Centres and use case studies of existing customers
SEA / RENUE Report on“Barriers to installing DSHW systems”:
Renewable Energy House – Brussels