Assessing the impacts of climate change on Atbara flows using bias- corrected GCM scenarios SIGMED and MEDFRIEND International Scientific Workshop Relations man / environment and sediment transport: a spatial approach Algeria 7&8 June 2011 Mohamed Elshamy
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Assessing the impacts of climate change on Atbara flows using bias-corrected GCM scenarios SIGMED and MEDFRIEND International Scientific Workshop Relations.
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Assessing the impacts of climate change on Atbara flows using bias-corrected
GCM scenarios
Assessing the impacts of climate change on Atbara flows using bias-corrected
GCM scenarios
SIGMED and MEDFRIEND International Scientific Workshop
Relations man / environment and sediment transport: a spatial
approach
Algeria 7&8 June 2011Mohamed Elshamy
OutlineOutline
1. Uncertainty Cascade1. Uncertainty Cascade
2. The Nile Basin & Previous CC studies2. The Nile Basin & Previous CC studies
3. Study Area & Methodology3. Study Area & Methodology
Large area (2.9 x 106 km2) Low specific discharge Spans several climate
regions Variable topography High runoff variability High Sensitivity to Climate
Mongalla
Jinja
Pakwach
Diem
Roseires
Sennar
Khartoum
Malakal
Atbara
KhashmEl-Girba
Aswan
Dongola
Mogren
Hillet Doleib
Masindi
Cairo
LakeNo
TANZAN IA
BU RU NDI
Gabal Awlia
Paara
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
20 25 30 35 40
EGY PT
ETH IOPIA
D.R. CONGO
RWANDA
L IBY A
CENTRAL
AF RICAN
REP.
U GANDA
SU DAN
ERITRIACHAD
K ENY A
Lake Nasser Flood & Drought Control Project (2008)
Previous Studies (1)Previous Studies (1)
– 6 Transient scenarios (3 GCMs x 2 Emission Scenarios)
– Statistically downscaled using a spatio-temporal weather generator
– Changes at Dongola from 2010-2100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Base 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
To
tal A
nn
ua
l Flo
w (
BC
M)
HadCM3 A2 HadCM3 B2
CGCM2 A2 CGCM2 B2ECHAM4 A2 ECHAM4 B2
OBS Base
Elshamy, M.E., Sayed, M.A.-A. and Badwy, B., 2009. Impacts of climate change on Nile flows at Dongola using statistically downscaled GCM scenarios. Nile Water Science & Engineering Magazine 2: 1-14
Previous Studies (2)Previous Studies (2)
Elshamy et al. (2009)– 17 GCMs x A1B
scenario– Statistically
downscaled using Bias Correction Method
– Blue Nile Flow Changes: -60% to +45%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Flo
w (
BC
M)
Ensemble Mean 2081-98
Observed 1961-90
Elshamy, M.E., Seierstad, I.A. and Sorteberg, A., 2009. Impacts of climate change on Blue Nile flows using bias-corrected GCM scenarios. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13(5): 551-565.